NCAA Tournament Projections (5/29)

Alum-Ni

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Aug 29, 2004
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Baseball America has updated their projection this morning......they have dropped Indiana out and Michigan is now one of the last four teams in the field.

They also have South Carolina hosting a regional as a #2 seed, with Old Dominion as a traveling #1 seed. ODU did not bid to host, but the Monarchs are #13 in RPI, are 18-6 away from home, 13-6 against Top 50 RPI teams, and 20-11 against the Top 100. Those metrics all stack up favorably when compared to other potential No. 1 seeds.

A traveling No. 1 seed would be unconventional in the modern version of the NCAA Tournament. The selection committee has not sent a top seed on the road since 2010 when Florida State was the No. 1 seed in the Norwich Regional hosted by Connecticut. It previously was a more common part of the NCAA Tournament, but as more schools have invested more money into their facilities, more schools have met the hosting requirements.

The chances for another traveling No. 1 seed, likely either North Carolina State or Oklahoma State if they win their respective conference tournaments, remains in play.


LAST FOUR IN
Alabama
Louisville
Michigan
LSU

FIRST FOUR OUT
Florida Atlantic
Ball State
Long Beach State
Indiana

NEXT FOUR OUT

Wofford
Iowa
South Carolina-Upstate
Baylor

==========================

NASHVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Vanderbilt (2)
#4 Southeast Missouri State

#2 Maryland
#3 Louisville

==========================

TUCSON REGIONAL
#1 Arizona (4)
#4 Grand Canyon

#2 Duke
#3 Michigan

==========================

LUBBOCK REGIONAL
#1 Texas Tech (9)
#4 Stony Brook

#2 Nebraska
#3 Georgia
 
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k9_r

Offensive Coordinator
Jul 31, 2010
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From day 1 I've said we'll be a one or two bid league. The Big Ten destroyed our RPI chances and here we are.
Nebraska RPI 43
Maryland 67
Michigan 100
Indiana 111

Guess what the softball committee did? They went right up and down the RPI ladder just as they always did in any other year. If the baseball committee does that as well at least two Big Ten teams are screwed. Totally unfair and totally the fault the this conference's bosses.
 
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huskerfan66

Head Coach
Dec 8, 2004
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From day 1 I've said we'll be a one or two bid league. The Big Ten destroyed our RPI chances and here we are.
Nebraska RPI 43
Maryland 67
Michigan 100
Indiana 111

Guess what the softball committee did? They went right up and down the RPI ladder just as they always did in any other year. If the baseball committee does that as well at least two Big Ten teams are screwed. Totally unfair and totally the fault the this conference's bosses.
Conference Boss
 
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saluno22

Defensive Coordinator
Mar 1, 2006
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From day 1 I've said we'll be a one or two bid league. The Big Ten destroyed our RPI chances and here we are.
Nebraska RPI 43
Maryland 67
Michigan 100
Indiana 111

Guess what the softball committee did? They went right up and down the RPI ladder just as they always did in any other year. If the baseball committee does that as well at least two Big Ten teams are screwed. Totally unfair and totally the fault the this conference's bosses.
Obviously it sucks this year. Reminds me of the griping about playing 9 conference football games (which guarantees an extra 0.5 losses per team) and not looking as attractive to the CFP committee: only our own conference to blame.

I do appreciate when committees use strict metrics and placement parameters (ie not putting teams from the same conference in the same regional) to make selections. College hockey does this as well. Meanwhile, college basketball tries to make more attractive matchups for TV revenue, and college baseball typically will go outside strict RPI when selecting the field (I recall a 20-some RPI UNC team getting snubbed in the last decade).
 

Alum-Ni

Administrator
Gold Member
Aug 29, 2004
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LAST FIVE IN
60. Fairfield
61. Indiana
62. Georgia
63. LSU
64. Alabama

FIRST FIVE OUT
65. Long Beach State
66. Ball State
67. Kansas State
68. Louisville
69. California

NASHVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Vanderbilt (2)
#4 Norfolk State

#2 Maryland
#3 Pittsburgh

=========================

SPOKANE REGIONAL
#1 Gonzaga (15)
#4 Northeastern

#2 Nebraska
#3 Oregon State


=========================

EUGENE REGIONAL
#1 Oregon (11)
#4 Bryant

#2 Virginia
#3 Michigan

=========================

SOUTH BEND REGIONAL
#1 Notre Dame (6)
#4 Central Michigan

#2 South Carolina
#3 Indiana
 

Can o' corn

Sophomore
Nov 29, 2002
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Heck, I don't care where we go. I would even be okay with Fayetteville because to win it all we're probably going to have to deal with the Piggies at some point.
 

k9_r

Offensive Coordinator
Jul 31, 2010
8,063
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college baseball typically will go outside strict RPI when selecting the field (I recall a 20-some RPI UNC team getting snubbed in the last decade).
Yep that did happen to UNC (if IRCC, that was RPI 22- very lofty) and the reason given was all about their lousy conference record. Conference records are a front line metric for the committee or so they say.
That year the ACC was very strong and UNC's SOS benefited greatly from that and SOS is 3/4ths of RPI. It was said that the committee elevated that conference record over RPI.

While exceptions like this happen, 95+% of their picks go to the usual RPI numbers. BTW, Fairfield right now is RPI 2 and are in danger of staying home.
 
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