NCAA Tournament Projections (5/15)

Alum-Ni

Administrator
Gold Member
Aug 29, 2004
57,969
20,300
113
Link: Baseball America NCAA Tournament Projection (5/15)

Last Four In
Connecticut
Tennessee
Clemson
Virginia

First Four Out
San Diego State
Wake Forest
Arizona
Oklahoma

Next Four Out
Washington
Iowa
Louisiana Tech
Gonzaga

Big Ten Teams In: 4
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Nebraska

Top 16 National Seeds (Region Hosts)
1. Vanderbilt
2. UCLA
3. Arkansas
4. Mississippi State
5. Georgia
6. East Carolina
7. Louisville
8. Texas Tech
9. Stanford
10. Georgia Tech
11. Oklahoma State
12. Miami (FL)
13. Oregon State
14. UC-Santa Barbara
15. LSU
16. North Carolina

Athens Regional
#1 Georgia
#4 North Carolina A&T

#2 Michigan
#3 Clemson

-----------------------------------

Stillwater Regional
#1 Oklahoma State
#4 Harvard

#2 Dallas Baptist
#3 Nebraska


-----------------------------------

Louisville Regional
#1 Louisville
#4 Ball State

#2 Indiana
#3 Tennessee

-----------------------------------

Atlanta Regional
#1 Georgia Tech
#4 Elon

#2 Illinois
#3 Southern Mississippi
 
  • Like
Reactions: saluno22

Alum-Ni

Administrator
Gold Member
Aug 29, 2004
57,969
20,300
113
Link: Perfect Game NCAA Tournament Projection (5/15)

Perfect Game does not put together a bracket, but just a projection of what teams they think will make the field:

(current RPI rank in parentheses after the team)

Automatic Bids (31 available)
Big Ten:
Michigan (42)

At-Large Bids (33 available)
Teams 11-20:
Illinois (21), Indiana (26)
Teams 21-29: Nebraska (38)

Last Four In

Florida State (57)
Duke (45)
Gonzaga (74)
Iowa (80)

Teams in the Discussion
Oklahoma (43)
Louisiana Tech (51)
Liberty (53)
Clemson (39)
Florida (33)
Virginia (48)
Wake Forest (59)
Central Florida (49)
San Diego State (56)

Top 16 Seeds (Host Sites)
1. UCLA
2. Vanderbilt
3. Arkansas
4. Mississippi State
5. East Carolina
6. Georgia
7. Texas Tech
8. Stanford
9. Georgia Tech
10. Louisville
11. Oklahoma State
12. Miami (FL)
13. Texas A&M
14. Oregon State
15. Illinois
16. LSU

Observations
1. The host situation is wide open right now. The final five spots are extremely fluid and any team that gets on a roll here at the end could end up in play.

2. The final at-large bids were similarly messy. The final three spots came down to 12 teams and it was difficult to find compelling cases. A team that gets hot could come out of nowhere to snag a bid.

3. This is a year where, in my opinion, the RPI and the eye-test are contradictory in several important instances. For example, Stanford is a Top 8 seed by my eye test but their RPI is light at 16. I also believe UC-Irvine to be a very good team but their RPI of 50 is on the bubble. This is an area where the committee might lean on their Regional Advisory Committees to trump RPI.

4. This projection includes the two single-highest RPIs we have ever put in the field: Gonzaga at 74 and Iowa at 80. Gonzaga has very little chance to build RPI in Spokane, Washington so we put that aside and looked deeper. The Zags are 16-8 in a very good West Coast Conference and they won three straight road games against the likes of Southern Mississippi and Texas A&M earlier this season. Iowa is hurt by their nine "Quad 4" (teams 151-299) losses but they have four series wins that made a loud statement: at Oklahoma State, Illinois, Nebraska and UC-Irvine.

5. The race for the Top 8 seeds is extremely competitive right now. East Carolina, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech and Stanford are all battling for those final three spots. Texas Tech and Stanford both pass the eye test at a high level and both clubs could still win their respective leagues. As it stands today, the committee will have their work cut out for them here.

6. Once conference tournaments open up, let the bid stealing begin. Here are several conferences to keep an eye on with teams listed who could steal one of those at-large bids:

Big East: if Creighton does not win the conference tournament
C-USA: If Florida Atlantic or Southern Miss do not win the conference tournament
Sun Belt: if Texas State does not win the conference tournament
West Coast Conference: if BYU does not win the conference tournament
Mountain West: if Fresno State does not win the conference tournament
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: saluno22

Truehuskerfan

Athletic Director
May 1, 2003
15,271
3,479
113
If Iowa gets in with that kind if an RPI, then RPI is practically meaningless. I realize they have a chance to raise it some by how they do the rest of the season, but I was always under the impression that anything above 50 was iffy for an at-large bid, and they are well outside of that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: saluno22

Alum-Ni

Administrator
Gold Member
Aug 29, 2004
57,969
20,300
113
If Iowa gets in with that kind if an RPI, then RPI is practically meaningless. I realize they have a chance to raise it some by how they do the rest of the season, but I was always under the impression that anything above 50 was iffy for an at-large bid, and they are well outside of that.

I agree. I get that have some nice wins, but they also have some really, really bad losses. I think they have to sweep Maryland and make a deep run in Omaha to have a shot.
 
  • Like
Reactions: saluno22

Alum-Ni

Administrator
Gold Member
Aug 29, 2004
57,969
20,300
113
Link: https://www.omaha.com/huskers/blogs...cle_88b7ab8c-08cf-506c-b4bc-5b19579dd93b.html

Evan Bland of the OWH looks at past "bubbles" the NCAA has had to try to predict the Huskers' fate for selection this year.

His summary: On the Bubble

Nebraska's postseason fate is probably yet to be decided. Its biggest assets are the third-ranked nonconference strength of schedule and respectable league record. Series wins over Baylor and Arizona State are valuable, as is the Texas Tech victory.

The record against Top 100 RPI teams hurts, especially 4-8 against squads in the 51-100 range (see: series losses to Minnesota, Iowa and Northwestern). And the Huskers aren't exactly hot, having lost nine of their past 15 games.

What will it take for Nebraska to play into June? Winning the weekend series against Michigan would almost certainly give NU the resume boost it needs. Claim one game, and suddenly the Big Ten tourney takes on added importance. Getting swept might mean tourney title or bust.
 

Alum-Ni

Administrator
Gold Member
Aug 29, 2004
57,969
20,300
113
Link: D1Baseball.com NCAA Tournament Projection (5/15)

Last Five In
Tennessee
Florida State
UC-Irvine
Virginia
Clemson

First Five Out
Wake Forest
Oklahoma
Washington
Louisiana Tech
Central Florida

Big Ten Teams In: 4
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Nebraska

Top 16 Seeds (Regional Hosts)
1. UCLA
2. Vanderbilt
3. Arkansas
4. Mississippi State
5. Louisville
6. Georgia Tech
7. Georgia
8. Texas Tech
9. East Carolina
10. Stanford
11. Oklahoma State
12. Oregon State
13. Miami (FL)
14. LSU
15. North Carolina
16. UC-Santa Barbara

Los Angeles Regional
#1 UCLA
#4 Nebraska-Omaha

#2 Michigan
#3 UC-Irvine

-------------------------------------

Nashville Regional
#1 Vanderbilt
#4 North Carolina A&T

#2 Indiana
#3 Liberty

-------------------------------------

Louisville Regional
#1 Louisville
#4 Central Michigan

#2 Indiana State
#3 Nebraska


-------------------------------------

Athens Regional
#1 Georgia
#4 Virginia Commonwealth

#2 Illinois
#3 Clemson