NCAA Tournament Projections (5/15)

Discussion in 'Husker Baseball Board' started by Alum-Ni, May 15, 2019.

  1. Alum-Ni

    Alum-Ni Administrator
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    Link: Baseball America NCAA Tournament Projection (5/15)

    Last Four In
    Connecticut
    Tennessee
    Clemson
    Virginia

    First Four Out
    San Diego State
    Wake Forest
    Arizona
    Oklahoma

    Next Four Out
    Washington
    Iowa
    Louisiana Tech
    Gonzaga

    Big Ten Teams In: 4
    Illinois
    Indiana
    Michigan
    Nebraska

    Top 16 National Seeds (Region Hosts)
    1. Vanderbilt
    2. UCLA
    3. Arkansas
    4. Mississippi State
    5. Georgia
    6. East Carolina
    7. Louisville
    8. Texas Tech
    9. Stanford
    10. Georgia Tech
    11. Oklahoma State
    12. Miami (FL)
    13. Oregon State
    14. UC-Santa Barbara
    15. LSU
    16. North Carolina

    Athens Regional
    #1 Georgia
    #4 North Carolina A&T

    #2 Michigan
    #3 Clemson

    -----------------------------------

    Stillwater Regional
    #1 Oklahoma State
    #4 Harvard

    #2 Dallas Baptist
    #3 Nebraska


    -----------------------------------

    Louisville Regional
    #1 Louisville
    #4 Ball State

    #2 Indiana
    #3 Tennessee

    -----------------------------------

    Atlanta Regional
    #1 Georgia Tech
    #4 Elon

    #2 Illinois
    #3 Southern Mississippi
     
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  2. Alum-Ni

    Alum-Ni Administrator
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    Link: Perfect Game NCAA Tournament Projection (5/15)

    Perfect Game does not put together a bracket, but just a projection of what teams they think will make the field:

    (current RPI rank in parentheses after the team)

    Automatic Bids (31 available)
    Big Ten:
    Michigan (42)

    At-Large Bids (33 available)
    Teams 11-20:
    Illinois (21), Indiana (26)
    Teams 21-29: Nebraska (38)

    Last Four In

    Florida State (57)
    Duke (45)
    Gonzaga (74)
    Iowa (80)

    Teams in the Discussion
    Oklahoma (43)
    Louisiana Tech (51)
    Liberty (53)
    Clemson (39)
    Florida (33)
    Virginia (48)
    Wake Forest (59)
    Central Florida (49)
    San Diego State (56)

    Top 16 Seeds (Host Sites)
    1. UCLA
    2. Vanderbilt
    3. Arkansas
    4. Mississippi State
    5. East Carolina
    6. Georgia
    7. Texas Tech
    8. Stanford
    9. Georgia Tech
    10. Louisville
    11. Oklahoma State
    12. Miami (FL)
    13. Texas A&M
    14. Oregon State
    15. Illinois
    16. LSU

    Observations
    1. The host situation is wide open right now. The final five spots are extremely fluid and any team that gets on a roll here at the end could end up in play.

    2. The final at-large bids were similarly messy. The final three spots came down to 12 teams and it was difficult to find compelling cases. A team that gets hot could come out of nowhere to snag a bid.

    3. This is a year where, in my opinion, the RPI and the eye-test are contradictory in several important instances. For example, Stanford is a Top 8 seed by my eye test but their RPI is light at 16. I also believe UC-Irvine to be a very good team but their RPI of 50 is on the bubble. This is an area where the committee might lean on their Regional Advisory Committees to trump RPI.

    4. This projection includes the two single-highest RPIs we have ever put in the field: Gonzaga at 74 and Iowa at 80. Gonzaga has very little chance to build RPI in Spokane, Washington so we put that aside and looked deeper. The Zags are 16-8 in a very good West Coast Conference and they won three straight road games against the likes of Southern Mississippi and Texas A&M earlier this season. Iowa is hurt by their nine "Quad 4" (teams 151-299) losses but they have four series wins that made a loud statement: at Oklahoma State, Illinois, Nebraska and UC-Irvine.

    5. The race for the Top 8 seeds is extremely competitive right now. East Carolina, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech and Stanford are all battling for those final three spots. Texas Tech and Stanford both pass the eye test at a high level and both clubs could still win their respective leagues. As it stands today, the committee will have their work cut out for them here.

    6. Once conference tournaments open up, let the bid stealing begin. Here are several conferences to keep an eye on with teams listed who could steal one of those at-large bids:

    Big East: if Creighton does not win the conference tournament
    C-USA: If Florida Atlantic or Southern Miss do not win the conference tournament
    Sun Belt: if Texas State does not win the conference tournament
    West Coast Conference: if BYU does not win the conference tournament
    Mountain West: if Fresno State does not win the conference tournament
     
    2 Alum-Ni, May 15, 2019
    Last edited: May 15, 2019
    saluno22 likes this.
  3. Truehuskerfan

    Truehuskerfan Athletic Director
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    If Iowa gets in with that kind if an RPI, then RPI is practically meaningless. I realize they have a chance to raise it some by how they do the rest of the season, but I was always under the impression that anything above 50 was iffy for an at-large bid, and they are well outside of that.
     
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  4. Alum-Ni

    Alum-Ni Administrator
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    I agree. I get that have some nice wins, but they also have some really, really bad losses. I think they have to sweep Maryland and make a deep run in Omaha to have a shot.
     
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  5. Alum-Ni

    Alum-Ni Administrator
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    Link: https://www.omaha.com/huskers/blogs...cle_88b7ab8c-08cf-506c-b4bc-5b19579dd93b.html

    Evan Bland of the OWH looks at past "bubbles" the NCAA has had to try to predict the Huskers' fate for selection this year.

    His summary: On the Bubble

     
  6. Alum-Ni

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    Link: D1Baseball.com NCAA Tournament Projection (5/15)

    Last Five In
    Tennessee
    Florida State
    UC-Irvine
    Virginia
    Clemson

    First Five Out
    Wake Forest
    Oklahoma
    Washington
    Louisiana Tech
    Central Florida

    Big Ten Teams In: 4
    Illinois
    Indiana
    Michigan
    Nebraska

    Top 16 Seeds (Regional Hosts)
    1. UCLA
    2. Vanderbilt
    3. Arkansas
    4. Mississippi State
    5. Louisville
    6. Georgia Tech
    7. Georgia
    8. Texas Tech
    9. East Carolina
    10. Stanford
    11. Oklahoma State
    12. Oregon State
    13. Miami (FL)
    14. LSU
    15. North Carolina
    16. UC-Santa Barbara

    Los Angeles Regional
    #1 UCLA
    #4 Nebraska-Omaha

    #2 Michigan
    #3 UC-Irvine

    -------------------------------------

    Nashville Regional
    #1 Vanderbilt
    #4 North Carolina A&T

    #2 Indiana
    #3 Liberty

    -------------------------------------

    Louisville Regional
    #1 Louisville
    #4 Central Michigan

    #2 Indiana State
    #3 Nebraska


    -------------------------------------

    Athens Regional
    #1 Georgia
    #4 Virginia Commonwealth

    #2 Illinois
    #3 Clemson
     

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