NCAA Tournament Projection - Perfect Game (5/4)

[Alum-Ni]

Link: https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=13867

This past Monday was exactly four weeks from Selection Monday. With three weeks left in the regular season, let’s see what our projected Field of 64 looks like. As always, our focus will be on the 33 at-large bids and the 16 host sites.

Our format will be as follows: the 31 automatic bids, followed by the 33 at-large bids, followed by the 16 host sites including the Top 8 National Seeds. There will also be a list of “Bubble Out” teams followed by some commentary.

Note: the number listed after each team will be their RPI as of Sunday night of this week.

Automatic Bids by Conference (31)
America East: Binghamton (63)
American Athletic: Houston (24)
Atlantic 10: Virginia Commonwealth (112)
ACC: North Carolina (2)
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville (76)

Big 12: Texas Tech (5)
Big East: Creighton (181)
Big South: Liberty (58)
Big Ten: Maryland (20)
Big West: Long Beach State (22)

Colonial: Northeastern (174)
C-USA: Southern Miss (21)
Horizon: Illinois-Chicago (123)
Ivy: Yale (68)

MAAC: Fairfield (155)
MAC: Kent State (67)
MEAC: Norfolk State (242)
Missouri Valley: Missouri State (16)
Mountain West: New Mexico (36)
Northeast: Bryant (131)

Ohio Valley: Tennessee Tech (87)
Pac-12: Oregon State (1)
Patriot: Navy (182)
SEC: Kentucky (3)
Southern: Mercer (50)

Southland: McNeese State (27)
SWAC: Jackson State (210)
Summit: Oral Roberts (109)
Sun Belt: Texas-Arlington (94)
WAC: New Mexico State (133)
West Coast: BYU (56)

At-Large Bids (33)
Clemson (4)
Florida (6)
Louisville (7)
Wake Forest (8)
TCU (9)

West Virginia (10)
Virginia (11)
Stanford (12)
Arizona (13)
Baylor (14)

LSU (15)
Arkansas (17)
Mississippi State (18)
Auburn (19)
Indiana (23)

South Florida (25)
Texas (26)
Vanderbilt (28)
Florida State (29)
Oklahoma (30)

Michigan (31)
South Carolina (32)
Central Florida (33)
Ole Miss (34)
Texas A&M (35)

Cal State Fullerton (39)
Southeastern Louisiana (40)
Charlotte (49)
St. John’s (37)
Old Dominion (38)

San Diego (54)
Washington (51)
Nebraska (43)

Bubble Out
South Alabama (42)
Louisiana Tech (41)
Loyola Marymount (65)
Connecticut (47)
Louisiana-Lafayette (55)
Dallas Baptist (48)
UCLA (60)
Oregon (61)
Florida Atlantic (59)
Rhode Island (45)

Bubble Out Tier 2
Coastal Carolina (64)
North Carolina State (46)
Kansas (62)
Utah (52)
St. Mary's (66)
Oklahoma State (53)
Florida Gulf Coast (69)
Seton Hall (70)

Bubble Out Interesting
Miami (FL) (72)
Minnesota (73)
Missouri (75)
California (76)
Gonzaga (77)

Host Sites (Top 8 are National Seeds)
1. Oregon State
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Texas Tech
5. Florida
6. Clemson
7. Louisville
8. TCU

9. Wake Forest
10. Virginia
11. Stanford
12. Missouri State
13. Auburn
14. Maryland
15. West Virginia
16. Long Beach State

Random Thoughts
Auburn and Maryland came in as new Hosts this week but their candidacies are somewhat fragile. Both teams have lackluster RPI metrics (for the high bar of hosting) so narrative will become key. Maryland must win the Big Ten regular season title and Auburn must win the SEC West. They are trying to hold off three schools that are potential host sites as well: LSU, Mississippi State and Arkansas.

Speaking of narrative, winning your regular season league championship can have a big impact on the committee and here are four leagues where that distinction could really matter:

* The SEC currently has seven teams within one game of first place

* The WCC where BYU, San Diego, Loyola Marymount and Gonzaga all sit in the bubble range

* The AAC where five teams are currently tied for first place

* Conference USA where Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Charlotte and Florida Atlantic all sit on or near the bubble.

We always worry about teams with sub .500 records in conference play as that narrative can work against you. Here are schools currently in our field but also currently under .500 in league play: Arizona, Baylor, Florida State and South Carolina.

And here are four conference tournament scenarios that all teams bubblicious will be lighting candles for:

* Missouri State must win the Missouri Valley tournament
* New Mexico must win the Mountain West tournament
* Mercer must win the Southern Conference tournament
* McNeese State must win the Southland Conference tournament

The lines of demarcation on the bubble are incredibly thin. In this round, I came down to 16 teams for the final seven spots. Every game matters.

 

[RobsterMobster]

Those who think that we are fine if we just simply win the next three series without any sweeps are crazy imo.

 

[saluno22]

Those who think that we are fine if we just simply win the next three series without any sweeps are crazy imo.

Need a couple sweeps. Going at least 8-2 or better over the last 10 would be great as long as we don't have multiple losses to the same team.

And not to get ahead of ourselves, but not crapping the bed at the conference tournament for a third straight year would be nice, too.

 

[Alum-Ni]

At minimum need to win the remaining series and actually do some damage at the league tourney, IMO

 

[Truehuskerfan]

We need some sweeps and this weekend would be a good start. Home series against a team well below .500? Absolutely no reason why we should not expect a sweep.

 

[RobsterMobster]

At minimum need to win the remaining series and actually do some damage at the league tourney, IMO

That is true, If we roll in the tourney it would cancel out the need for a sweep. But still, we'd be flirting with that fire down to the wire again. Sweep Rutgers and PSU so we don't have to worry is what I say!

 

[bigredrl]

That is true, If we roll in the tourney it would cancel out the need for a sweep. But still, we'd be flirting with that fire down to the wire again. Sweep Rutgers and PSU so we don't have to worry is what I say!

Spot on!

 

[coolonetoo]

I think 6-3 the last three series, a win vs. Creighton and a win or two in Bloomington would probably be enough. As long as it means finishing near the top of the league (and not behind Purdue and/or Iowa).

But why not remove all doubt by winning 8+ before the tournament and then having a big showing there (like making the title game)? That sounds like a better plan to me.

 

[donahues17]

I agree with winning the series and no losses in mid week game plus a tournament championship game appearance will put us in. If no championship appearance, better at least get one sweep and win the other series.

 

[bigredrl]

I think 6-3 the last three series, a win vs. Creighton and a win or two in Bloomington would probably be enough. As long as it means finishing near the top of the league (and not behind Purdue and/or Iowa).

But why not remove all doubt by winning 8+ before the tournament and then having a big showing there (like making the title game)? That sounds like a better plan to me.

If we don't seeep at least one of the series against PSU or Rutgers do we really deserve to get in? Those are some bad teams.

 

[RobsterMobster]

If we don't seeep at least one of the series against PSU or Rutgers do we really deserve to get in? Those are some bad teams.

I'd also agree with this. Unless somehow we just tore up in the tourney. Essentially, this is the type of team that needs to be hot at the right time to have any chance at winning a regional. Especially if we are playing at a Top 8 Seeds home turf like many seem to project.

 

[regionsdoc]

I'd also agree with this. Unless somehow we just tore up in the tourney. Essentially, this is the type of team that needs to be hot at the right time to have any chance at winning a regional. Especially if we are playing at a Top 8 Seeds home turf like many seem to project.

With the lack of pitching depth (due to injuries to Eddins/Tilletson/Engelkin(sp?)/Curry), the only chance this team has of making a run in any tournament is to stay in the winner's bracket. It's hard any time, but I just don't see this team being able to play it's way through a loser's bracket.