Why does our offense look so explosive on paper but we played so bad?
Not intending on being disagreeable, but I haven't seen anything resembling an explosive offense on paper for a long time. More than anything, we Husker fans overvalue our better players and sometime have blinders on just how bad play has been at some positions in the last 10 years.
Our talent on offense the last three years has been below big ten Average. The offensive line has been mostly Big Ten poor and up to slightly below big ten average for the stretch Farmer was moved Center and toward the end of the year as the freshman duo Piper/Benhardt developed and Corcoran showed there was really no drop off from SR. James to him.
The 2019 group was simply bad The interior group of 265 Freshman TE convert Jurgens, Walkon So. Hixson and injured Wilson was the worst interior oline in the Big Ten. As much potential as Jurgens has, he simply wouldn't have had to play on any Big Ten team with depth until his Jr year. Hixson has developed a great deal and provides great depth but should have seen a Big Ten field as a sophmore. Even Farniok was well below big ten average as a tackle. We had a bad offensive line and were average at best everywhere else.
If you think I am exaggerating about how bad play was on the interior in 2019 go re-watch the South Alabama game where we rushed for roughly 100 yards on 40+ carries. If you are overmatched by South Alabama what do you think is going to happen when you play one of the many physical Big Ten teams like Iowa or Wisconsin. To the players and Staff's credit both Jurgen and Hixson improved a great deal over the year and we were only Big Ten poor at the end of the year and even competitive against some decently physical teams at the end of the year. This also goes against he is just overmatched in the Big Ten talking point you hear about Frost. The Oregon teams he coordinated and the last two UCF teams would have hung 50+ and 500+ yard on that bad South Alabama team. He didn't just get stupid, there are a lot of personnel and other things that are simply taking time to sort out and that game is the poster child for just where the talent truly was.
Besides being poor up front we were average to below average at all other offensive positions in 2019 and really haven't been above Big Ten average at any position group outside of RB with Ozigbo and have had a few good big ten players like Robinson but not enough. When you look at the lack of representation on the all conference teams ands in the draft it is completely obvious to anyone not wearing blinders.
Before I jump to next year, I want to point out that Frost is not without fault. When you have the deficiencies we had and are trying to go from the losing team he inheritied with below average talent you have to do the little things to win games and also throw more Juco's at positions that your may need it instead of arrogantly thinking your are going to coach around it. Also, Special teams, mental errors, allowing the snapping thing to continue like it did was not acceptable and needs to be addressed. Clean that crap and at least get 1-2 more legit Big Ten players up front in 2019 and you maybe get your 6-7 wins and bowl practice, Martinez doesn't regress so much his Sophmore year and a guy like Robinson continues to believe and gives it another year.
As for this years roster or projected depth chart I actually believe this is the first year he will roll with above Big Ten average talent on offense. I absolutely love the left side of the line with Corcoran and Piper. They will start next year above Big Ten average and grow over the next 3-4 years. With a healthy offseason Jurgens should get the rest of the weight he needs and continue to work on technique and be a good Big Ten center. I personally believe the combination of Jurgens, Piper and Corcoran is the best block of offensive lineman we have had in a long time. Benhardt will continue to grow and his floor should be around Big Ten average to slightly above average. While RG is a bit of an unknown I am hopeful Nouili wins the job and the depth chart looks like "Dacred" is guessing. This leaves guys like Banks, Hixson and Sichterman to provide the depth.
While this group is still fairly young overall it does have some very good young players and some depth and will be by far the best line Scott has had to work with and will only get better over next 2-3 years. This is what happens with a position group when you target and hit on your higher ranked prospects and also catch the diamond with Piper. There will be NFL players in this group and at least one first or second team all Big Ten player over that stretch. We have not seen a position group stacked like this in long time. Starting guys like Pelini, Utter, Conrad, 265 So. Jurgens or So Hixson is a thing of the past for the foreseable future.
All I will say about RB is we have enough solid recruits who have been around for a couple years that through Spring and Fall camp we should find someone that can be Big Ten average to slightly above that and productive like Mills. Reason I wanted Mills back was we new what his floor was and that was good enough for this offense to be effective with the players they have next year. We need someone to be big ten average to have a chance to reach our goals.
Wide Receiver and Tight End
Martin, Toure, Brown, Falck, Warner, Allen and Volkokek would give us a competitive group of guys with Allen being above average and the group as a whole being a bit below Big Ten avg. What could make this group "good" is for one of Betts, Manning and/or Fidone to become a "Dude". Given the level of recruits and athletes these three are I feel really good about one of more of them developing into the player we expect and take this group to next level. I know have been snake bit some at WR with the Manning injury and the number of gusy that didn't pan out but I expect that tide to turn with this group. I would love for that guy to be Fidone as I expect him to play outside and inside and think he has that same ability to have as much or more impact as Robinson did as a Freshman. I also expect Manning and Betts to be a productive part of rotation and one of them to take that next step. Overall, the WR/TE group could be well above Big Ten average and very likely contains 1-2 future NFL players. By far the best overall group in Scott's four years.
I also believe with the Depth and size at TE and WR that that we will finally become an above average blocking group on perimeter as well. As bad as the 2019 interior line was, the perimeter blocking at WR with that small group was almost equally as crappy.
Quarterback
Martinez will have a tremendous opportunity next year. For the first time in his career he will start the year with a legit Big 10 offensive line. I fully expect this will result in a running game which will take off some pressure off and put him in advantageous down and distances much like he was the 2nd half of his Freshman year accept with an even better o-line. I expect him to be in great shape and continue to have that extra gear in his running game. If he can gain some confidence protect the football and make a couple plays, this offense may finally resemble a unit we hoped for when Frost arrived.
Defense
Overall the projections are probably pretty spot on as we have a lot of experienced players coming back. I expect a Big Ten average defense with the guys we have assembled and past performance. It is nice group with the SR's we having coming back but until I see a legit pass rusher and an overall unit more consistent in stopping the run (nightmare of Illinois dancing in my head) I don't see better than that. While I feel better about Chinander, I am still not 100% sold his scheme will be effective enough against Big Ten Rushing offenses.
Overall Scott has group of players that a coach like Fitz at Northwestern would have a solid chance of winning the West with. Will Scott take the next step as head coach and address deficiencies holding program back like special teams, clean up mental/snap errors and give the kids the chance to compete for that.
For the optimists among us I will be looking for the following things prior to OU game to feel good.
- We are in 2nd and 5 and 3rd and 2 more often than not against Illinois and Buffalo without overworking Martinez in the run game. This will be in indication that o-line is good and we found a suitable running back replacement
- At least two of the combination of Fidone, Manning, Betts and Toure a getting major reps at WR. Cannot win west without a "Dude" at WR and Fidone, Manning and Betts have the physical abilities to develop into that.
- Very limited number of the following items (pre snap penatlies, stupid holds (some types of holds are OK), bad snaps that kills what looked to be a good drive.
- At least hold our own in net return game and avoid special team killers like the dropped punt against Iowa
- Break even or better in Net Turnover first two games
- We aren't starting any uncompetitive players. As important as it is to have good players to win the West, it is equally important to not play bad players. I feel offense will have competive players accross the board unlike 2019. There is still a position on defense I am very concerned about in that regard and will be very interested in that.
For first time in a long time, I am cautiously optimistic about our chances of fielding a good football team that is fun to watch. This is a real important year for Scott and program. If the roster is truly better and includes a good offensive line and defense is competitive and we win 8 games and compete in the others we will be able to reinvigorate recruiting and would likely have all key offensive players returning for 2022 and then true Kool Aid drinking can begin. If they go 5-7 again and are uncompetitive against OSU/OU and don't win 1/2 games from the Iowa/Wisconsin/Northwester/Minnesota group then there is no reason to believe that group would be much better in 2022. Truly a pivotal season for Scott and the program.