Might be bad sign if Frost doesn't get at least 8 wins

[husker2612]

Over the last 20 years 20 coaches have finished 1st or 2nd. I have included what their first year record was. What their first 2 game record was and how many years it took them with their team to finish 1st or 2nd.

Coach- Team- 1st record- 2 game record- Years it took to finish 1st or 2nd
Phillip Fulmer- Tenn- 10-2 2-0 7years
Bobby Bowden- Fl St 5-6 0-2 12 years
Frank Beamer - V tech 2-9 0-2 12 years
Bob Stoops- Okla 7-5 0-2 2 years
Larry Coker - Miami 12-0 2-0 1 year
Jim Tressel- Ohio St 7-5 1-1 2 years
Nick Saban LSU 8-4 2-0 4 years
Pete Carrol USC 6-6 1-1 4 years
Mack Brown Texas 9-3 1-1 8 years
Urban Myer FL 9-3 2-0 2 years
Les Miles LSU 11-2 1-1 3 years
Nick Saban Bama 7-6 2-0 3 years
Gene Chizik Auburn 8-5 2-0 2 years
Chip Kelley Oregon 8-5 1-1 2 years
Brian Kelley ND 8-5 1-1 3 years
Jimbo Fishcher FL St 10-4 1-1 4 years
Urban Myer Ohio St 12-0 2-0 3 years
Mark Helfrich Oregon 11-2 2-0 2years
Dabo Swinney Clemson 9-5 1-1 8 years
Kirby Smart Georgia 8-5 2-0 2 years

Average win loss record year 1 8-4 Average first 2 game record 1-1. Average years to finish 1 or 2 4years.
So it isn't the end of the world that we started 0-2. History says Frost needs to probably hit that 8 win mark to stay in line with what history says is a championship level coach.

I am not saying Frost is going anywhere. He shouldn't, Nebraska was a dumpster fire and he needs time to get it turned around. He is Nebraska last hope, and he needs to be given as much time as possible to attempt to get this right.

 

[Dadmaster]

most if not all of these were before the 13 game schedule

 

[maplesyrup95]

Who else is going to want to coach this program if Frost can't?

No one. The answer is no one. The thing we have lacked the last 18 years is continuity. He's on a 7 year contract. Frost isn't going anywhere.

 

[husker2612]

most if not all of these were before the 13 game schedule

Yes, but you get the idea. Finishing year 1 with 4-6 wins is not ideal for a championship level coach.

 

[HuskerWisdom]

Who else is going to want to coach this program if Frost can't?

No one. The answer is no one. The thing we have lacked the last 18 years is continuity. Frost isn't going anywhere. He's on a 7 year contract.

exactly. This might be our last chance to turn things around and be relevant again. We aren't going to make decisions on a short horizon, he's getting the years he needs to fix it

 

[husker2612]

Who else is going to want to coach this program if Frost can't?

No one. The answer is no one. The thing we have lacked the last 18 years is continuity. Frost isn't going anywhere. He's on a 7 year contract.

Not saying he is going anywhere. Nor do I want him too. Just giving some stats. History says if coaches don't get at least 7 or 8 wins year 1 the odds are heavily against them.

 

[CatColumbia]

Who else is going to want to coach this program if Frost can't?

No one. The answer is no one. The thing we have lacked the last 18 years is continuity. Frost isn't going anywhere. He's on a 7 year contract.

Yep, he asked for 7 and that’s the number it takes to really gauge on how the regime has done. Bo got 7...

 

[maplesyrup95]

Not saying he is going anywhere. Nor do I want him too. Just giving some stats. History says if coaches don't get at least 7 or 8 wins year 1 the odds are heavily against them.

Good thing we have 10 games left to see how it all plays out The brightest spot yesterday was Hickman committing. Tells me that despite the loss to Troy, these talented kids see the vision and they believe in this staff.

 

[timnsun]

Sorry, but this is ridiculous. Saban’s first year at MSU wasn’t an 8 win season. His first year at Bama wasn’t an 8 win season. He went 7-6 his first year at Bama not 12-2 as you state.

I don’t have time to look up other stats, but to automatically assume that if he doesn’t win 8 games this year he won’t win championships is stupid.

NFM.

 

[scarletred]

A little to early for this BS.

Crist we played a walk-on Sophomore QB and don’t have all the offense in our arsenal yet...

Give him sometime to recruit I’m not judging SF on this first year with everything he inherited..

 

[headcard]

Thanks for looking that all up, it is interesting, I have a couple thoughts. First some real flukes in there. Helfrich, Chiz, Cooker. Don’t really care how Helfrich and Cooker did in year one, etc as they were clearly in a situation where the inherited great teams, but were average coaches, like Frank Solich. Second, recently I saw an article that pointed to year two as the real litmus test. Showed that even guys like Saban and Stoops who struggled to some degree in year one had it turned around and won 9+ by year two. Basically year one isn’t as important, but generally if it doesn’t happen by year two or three, it probably isn’t going to happen.

 

[z28craz]

I’m sorry but some of those are not even fair comparisons.

Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher, Bob Stoops, Mark Helfrich, Les Miles, Larry Coker, even Urban Myer to Ohio State. All of these guys, and even a few more inherited Championship Level talent. Their rosters were loaded when they took over. There was no roster flipping. There was no strength and conditioning overhaul. There was no installing a new level of accountability, or culture. It was all in place, all they had to do was manage it while adding their own flair. Very few of the above were complete rebuilds. Dabo Sweeney is probably the closest and it took him 8 years. Frost faces a complete rebuild. And while we do have some talent on the roster, it’s sparse, inconsistent, and/or young and inexperienced. When some of your most talented players are True Freshman, there are going to be bumps in the road.

 

[RedMyMind]

Sorry, but this is ridiculous. Saban’s first year at MSU wasn’t an 8 win season. His first year at Bama wasn’t an 8 win season. He went 7-6 his first year at Bama not 12-2 as you state.

I don’t have time to look up other stats, but to automatically assume that if he doesn’t win 8 games this year he won’t win championships is stupid.

NFM.

I agree. If the stats prove anything, it is that first year record doesn't mean jackshit.

 

[husker2612]

Sorry, but this is ridiculous. Saban’s first year at MSU wasn’t an 8 win season. His first year at Bama wasn’t an 8 win season. He went 7-6 his first year at Bama not 12-2 as you state.

I don’t have time to look up other stats, but to automatically assume that if he doesn’t win 8 games this year he won’t win championships is stupid.

NFM.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Saban 1. I didn't include stats for MSU, because he didn't get top 2. Yes you are correct he did go 7-6.Year 1 at Bama, Misread year 2 instead of year 1.
2.Where did I say if he didn't win 8 there was no way he couldn't get us back to the top. I didn't. just that the odds decrease drastically.

 

[husker2612]

I agree. If the stats prove anything, it is that first year record doesn't mean jackshit.

Ok, find 5 coaches who won less than 7 games year 1 at a school and finished in top 2 with that school?

 

[husker2612]

I’m sorry but some of those are not even fair comparisons.

Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher, Bob Stoops, Mark Helfrich, Les Miles, Larry Coker, even Urban Myer to Ohio State. All of these guys, and even a few more inherited Championship Level talent. Their rosters were loaded when they took over. There was no roster flipping. There was no strength and conditioning overhaul. There was no installing a new level of accountability, or culture. It was all in place, all they had to do was manage it while adding their own flair. Very few of the above were complete rebuilds. Dabo Sweeney is probably the closest and it took him 8 years. Frost faces a complete rebuild. And while we do have some talent on the roster, it’s sparse, inconsistent, and/or young and inexperienced. When some of your most talented players are True Freshman, there are going to be bumps in the road.

Agreed, as I have said there is no guarantee that just because he gets less than 8 wins that he can not get championships. Also many of those coaches also fizzled out and ended up getting fired down the road. These stats are not the end all be all. Take them for what you want.

 

[huskerfan66]

Who else is going to want to coach this program if Frost can't?

No one. The answer is no one. The thing we have lacked the last 18 years is continuity. He's on a 7 year contract. Frost isn't going anywhere.

Nor should he. Patience and courage people. There's a post on here that Coach Frost words is some of the problem. There's some truth. When he was hired with this year's schedule, most knew this year would be brutal. But as spring ball got here we got greedier and so on. We are so hungry for success. Patience and stay the course. Good things are coming.

 

[dinglefritz]

Agreed, as I have said there is no guarantee that just because he gets less than 8 wins that he can not get championships. Also many of those coaches also fizzled out and ended up getting fired down the road. These stats are not the end all be all. Take them for what you want.

You're worrying too much. We've got the right guy and he's doing the right thing by completely blowing up the roster and systems. He has ripped the band aid off and is starting from scratch. Next year we will have 4 QBs on the roster who fit his system and both Bunch and Vedral will be experienced backups. Next year our backup linebacker won't be a first year guy who blows assignments when the starter gets kicked out of the game. We'll be fine. I thought we would win these last 2 weeks but losing Martinez killed us. IMO Martinez would have brought us back in that CU game (Gebbia may have as well) and Martinez would have carved up Troy's D. Bunch will get better but man we need Martinez against better teams.

 

[RedMyMind]

Ok, find 5 coaches who won less than 7 games year 1 at a school and finished in top 2 with that school?

I can find plenty of coaches that that won 8/9/10 games their first year that never got close to top 2. Don't see the point.

 

[burkek]

A little to early for this BS.

Crist we played a walk-on Sophomore QB and don’t have all the offense in our arsenal yet...

Give him sometime to recruit I’m not judging SF on this first year with everything he inherited..

I am not judging Frost on the first three years of what he inherited. Every year will get better and Nebraska will play championship football again with Frost as the HC. Without him, never again in my lifetime

 

[timnsun]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Saban 1. I didn't include stats for MSU, because he didn't get top 2. Yes you are correct he did go 7-6.Year 1 at Bama, Misread year 2 instead of year 1.
2.Where did I say if he didn't win 8 there was no way he couldn't get us back to the top. I didn't. just that the odds decrease drastically.

7 of the 20 you listed had 7 or fewer wins their first year.

That is a sizable number, which means if Frost doesn’t hit 8 wins there’s still better than 33% chance he will be fine.

I know you didn’t say he won’t cut it... you said history dictates he won’t cut it. But even in this list 7 guys out of 20 didn’t hit 8 wins and they went on to have great success.

Your statistical analysis here is not very airtight, in my opinion.

 

[Bugeater]

Tone down the mistakes and the chances of winning go way up.

 

[husker2612]

7 of the 20 you listed had 7 or fewer wins their first year.

That is a sizable number, which means if Frost doesn’t hit 8 wins there’s still better than 33% chance he will be fine.

I know you didn’t say he won’t cut it... you said history dictates he won’t cut it. But even in this list 7 guys out of 20 didn’t hit 8 wins and they went on to have great success.

Your statistical analysis here is not very airtight, in my opinion.

Again, I have never once claimed this is airtight. As my post says, Frost not getting 8 wins MIGHT be a bad sign. He very well could win 2 or 3 games this year and go on to win 10 national championships over his career at Nebraska. Just saying there aren't many if any coaches that have done that and went on to win championships.

 

[husker2612]

I can find plenty of coaches that that won 8/9/10 games their first year that never got close to top 2. Don't see the point.

You are 100% correct but I wasn't trying to find coaches who won 8 9 or 10 games and didn't win a NC. I wanted to see the average win year one over the last 20 years for NC level coaches. It was 8. That is all.

 

[scarletred]

Bear Bryant went 1-9 at ATM in his first year and 5–4-1 at Alabama his first year...

Let’s not judge what SF future at Nebraska is after just one year and flipping the culture and roster is what everyone is implying here...

 

[bigbadjim990]

Who else is going to want to coach this program if Frost can't?

No one. The answer is no one. The thing we have lacked the last 18 years is continuity. He's on a 7 year contract. Frost isn't going anywhere.

Exactly!!! I said the same thing when they fired BP and hired MR. It made no sense. MR's age wouldn't even allow this to happen even if he was successful. It took TO over 20 years to get the MNC with more advantages over our competition than Scott Frost has now.

 

[rrthusker]

He was never going to get 8 wins this year with this schedule and this roster. This will take a few recruiting classes.

 

[scarletred]

He was never going to get 8 wins this year with this schedule and this roster. This will take a few recruiting classes.

And back to strength and conditioning that we hadn’t had much of the last 3 years..

 

[TFrazier]

And back to strength and conditioning that we hadn’t had much of the last 3 years..

This team also appears to need some extra mental strength and conditioning based on all of the mental errors Coach Frost keeps mentioning at the post game press conferences.

 

[Baxter48]

And back to strength and conditioning that we hadn’t had much of the last 3 years..

I'm going to say the last 20 it dropped off during Franks last couple years and never been back since oh yeah several players did each year but not the whole team

 

[HuskerO]

He was never going to get 8 wins this year with this schedule and this roster. This will take a few recruiting classes.

Akron
Colorado
Troy
Purdue
Illinois
Northwestern
Minnesota

Now Wisconsin and Michigan St look very beatable and Iowa is always beatable.

He had a chance to get 8.

 

[timnsun]

Again, I have never once claimed this is airtight. As my post says, Frost not getting 8 wins MIGHT be a bad sign. He very well could win 2 or 3 games this year and go on to win 10 national championships over his career at Nebraska. Just saying there aren't many if any coaches that have done that and went on to win championships.

That’s fine. And I said 7 of the 20 names finished with less than 8 wins, when after recounting, it’s actually 6... my bad. I guess i struggle with how it’s how it is presented.

I guess I don’t understand starting the thread if you don’t believe it to be true.

 

[Lincoln100]

It's nonsense

 

[husker2612]

That’s fine. And I said 7 of the 20 names finished with less than 8 wins, when after recounting, it’s actually 6... my bad. I guess i struggle with how it’s how it is presented.

I guess I don’t understand starting the thread if you don’t believe it to be true.

Understandable, I guess I was just curious. Thought others would be interested. Guess I was wrong.

 

[timnsun]

Understandable, I guess I was just curious. Thought others would be interested. Guess I was wrong.

Sorry I came off like a jerk. Probably oversensitive with some of the Frost bashing. You weren’t bashing frost, just presenting some statistics. Talking about many of the other threads...

 

[husker2612]

Sorry I came off like a jerk. Probably oversensitive with some of the Frost bashing. You weren’t bashing frost, just presenting some statistics. Talking about many of the other threads...

No problem,I understand people being upset at the 0-2 start. I understand some might start talking bad about Frost. I am upset as well, but I still 100% support Frost. Believe he has the best chance to get us back. It is not time to panic. Now if we see this type of team year 3 it might be cause for a bit of concern.

 

[rrthusker]

Akron
Colorado
Troy
Purdue
Illinois
Northwestern
Minnesota

Now Wisconsin and Michigan St look very beatable and Iowa is always beatable.

He had a chance to get 8.

Sorry I was vague, that was my opinion only. I predicted 6-6 and feel pretty dumb now.

 

[DaddyBoi]

A little to early for this BS.

Crist we played a walk-on Sophomore QB and don’t have all the offense in our arsenal yet...

Give him sometime to recruit I’m not judging SF on this first year with everything he inherited..

No shit, I honestly hated Mike Riley and was concerned from the start, but this is getting ridiculous.

2 games, one with a true freshman, another with a 4th string. Both were 1 play from being W’s. Does nobody remember being crushed by Minnesota last year?

 

[HuskerO]

Sorry I was vague, that was my opinion only. I predicted 6-6 and feel pretty dumb now.

Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying and I'm right with ya...

 

[rrthusker]

Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying and I'm right with ya...

YW.