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Looking at ESPN power rankings and our 2025 schedule

poundth3rock

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Jul 20, 2007
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I have always like looking at model based power ranking to get non bias feedback to compare to how our perceptions align with models that take into consideration record, strength of schedule and offensive/Defensive/Special Teams efficiencies. While none of the models are perfect they do provide some interesting insights and often make you rethink expectations a bit.

According to ESPN model, Nebraska improved from 70th to 38th from Frosty to Rhules second year. This aligns with a 3 game improvement we have seen last two years culminating in first winning season in last 8 years.

ESPN Power rankings under Rhule

2022 (Frost) -70 and 4-8
2023 (Rhule) – 58 and 5-7
2024 – (Rhule) – 38 and 7-6

2025 ?? – Trends and Rhule's past results tell us Nebraska could move into low 20’s in this model next year. Driven by significant improvements in coaching staff, continued overall improvement in team talent along with expected QB development. Hoping this results in a few more wins and better efficiencies across the board in 2025.

The obvious offset would be related to opponent SOC or injuries. Nebraska could improve so much it entered top 20 but still only win 7 games in a scenario like USC where you have a very tough schedule, poor record in close games. While it is tough to tell in portal era, I think Nebraska probably ends up with a very favorable schedule in 2025 as noted below as I don't see a team with Indiana or even an Illinois type jump on the schedule this year. I think Michigan and UCLA will be better. I think Minnesota and Maryland will be worse and everyone else fairly similar to last year when season is over.

Team2024 ESPN Power RatingNotes
Houston Christian135Average FCS
Akron124No better
Northwestern89Probably some improvement but not enough
MSU82Decent portal with poor freshman class
Maryland69Major QB Issues
UCLA55Really solid QB addition could result in nice jump
Cincinati53Good returning QB
Michigan29Will be top 15 with 5* QB coming in and way they finished in 2024
Minnesota28Major QB Issues could result in 20-30 spot drop
Iowa22Continue to exceed talent expectations with good coaching
USC17Opposite of Iowa
Penn State6NC contender

This schedule appears almost custom built for another 2-3 win jump in regular season. Almost any legit top 30 team would go 5-0 against first 5 teams and no worse than 3-4 against the top 7 that includes Cincinnati, UCLA and Minnesota. 8-4 absolutely needs to be the floor in 2025 with this schedule and roster if we are to continue to believe that program is on right track and to keep momentum Trae Taylor is bringing. I think Fan Duel has O/U set at 7.5 and I personally really like overs on Nebraska based on trajectory and expected 2025 SOC.

So question for board is what is your biggest worry (coach, position group, etc) that you have for 2025 that would keep NU from winning at least 8 games this year and what is the most important game to win to hit that mark.

My biggest worry is RB. A theory I have always agreed with related to winning/championship type teams is you need to to be competitive at every position and sprinkle in a at least 1 really good player at every level. I think at QB, WR, LB and Secondary this will play out. I think at TE, DL and O-line we will at least be P5 competitive everywhere. While not the model for championship it would be good enough to win 8-9 games with our schedule. That leaves my biggest concern being RB. EJ is very well suited for this offense and should ensure the room is competitive if he gets 20+ touches in any close game. If he goes down, we likely become P5 uncompetitive and could absolutely see a situation where it derails offensive potential. So I guess RB play behind EJ is my biggest concern to get at least 8 wins.

As for most important game? Beating Cincy at Arrowhead which will ensure a 3-0 start and huge momentum going in to home game against Michigan. Cincy 24 power rating is better than many expect (top half of our schedule) and they return Sorsby who had a strong RS freshman season (Slightly better than DR). These are types of games against P5 teams we have lost to start season in recent memory (Illinois 21, Northwestern 22 and Minnesota 23) and completely derailed season. Nebraska is better than Cincy but if we are not able to get to QB consistently and secondary has any growing pains this will be a much close game than many fans expect.
 
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