Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter PeliniTheCrutch
- Start date
I used to LOVE hitting up Horsemans when they had live racing...it was such a party! I miss that!
Couple of quick thoughts on your post.
There are 17 horses in this race that have already ran a Performance Figure good enough to win most Derby's.
The race has changed over the last 4 or 5 years in that, horses used to get eligible by the amount of money they earned, so a horse could win a race at Delta Downs Jackpot with a 1Million dollar purse and have enough winning to get into the Derby. That "prize money won" entry of horses allowed a bunch of basic sprinters to run in this race at 10 furlongs. So, a ton of cheap speed that could not get 10f if their life depended on it.
Now to become eligible to run in the Derby they must amass enough points to be in the top 25 or so and that will be dwindled down to 20 horses when a few decide not to run. So, no points for races less than 1 Mile and it has to be in a race where Derby points are assigned. It's not as easy to get in as it was. And yet, there will still be a handful of horses at 30/1, 40/1 etc.
In about 2021 or so, they no longer could run in the Derby, or any Graded Stakes races with Lasix/furosemide/bleeder medication. We all know, some horses it has little effect on, others are just bleeders and have to have that medication to run. Lasix also does a great job of masking other medications. Regular players like Pelini and myself know what happens when Baffert, Cox, Pletcher, Brown, etc get involved.
As you say Pelini, it could very well come down to Journalism and Soverignty/Baeza. But, it's a little early to make that assumption because we don't know what the entire field will look like, we have no idea of what post positions any of these horses will have drawn, we have no idea of the track condition on that first Saturday in May, nor do we know the condition of the track at the Derby post time. We also don't know how several horses will get over the track in their workouts prior to the race.
Also, its likely Journalism and Soverignty will be the two betting favorites at post time. It's been 5 straight years since either the first or second betting favorite won the Derby. So, the trend has been moving away from just betting the two favorites. That isn't to say they don't hit the board frequently, because they do, but hitting the board and winning the race are two separate things.
P.S. As usual, it's impossible for me to write a short post. Just giving some food for thought here.
My wife (the boss) has always limited my KD wagering to $500. I have always gone straight wagering on long shots across the board. I have won a few over 30 years, but as always, the house wins.
This year I am going with $500 worth of 10 cent superfecta quick picks. I know its a loser bet, but praying to St. Secretariat, St. Affirmed, and St. American Pharoah for a big pay-out.
And their off......
Amen
This year I am going with $500 worth of 10 cent superfecta quick picks. I know its a loser bet, but praying to St. Secretariat, St. Affirmed, and St. American Pharoah for a big pay-out.
And their off......
Amen
Kudos to your wife for allowing you to cut loose a little and have some real fun without compromising your overall finances. Two things to remember, supers are $ 1.00 on Derby day, and IF you hit something nice, make damn sure you reward your wife with any windfall.
Omaha has live racing for 4 days this summer…July 18th-19th and July 25-26th. Lincoln has 15 days then Columbus has another 15 days.
You started the thread buddy, the Post Positions have been drawn, take the lead on this.
The initial 20 horses are set, and Baeza is the Also Eligible at #21.
Baeza would draw in if there are any defections prior to 9 a.m. on Friday.
I've been working on the Performance Figures since April 12th, so I'll fill in some of the raw data as you analyze the race.
I’ll start with horses that are easy tosses for me because they’ll be pace compromised:
1- citizen bull
5- American promise
6- admire daytona
12- east avenue
20- Owen almighty
Rodriguez is close to being in that list, and might end up on that list for me, especially because of Smith.
1- citizen bull
5- American promise
6- admire daytona
12- east avenue
20- Owen almighty
Rodriguez is close to being in that list, and might end up on that list for me, especially because of Smith.
I haven’t bet the ponies for a long time and when I did it wasn’t done by analysis. The depth you guys go in to fascinates me. 👍. Great topic.
I'll agree on 4 of those 5. That's a good start Pelini.
The race offers so many obstacles a player has to overcome to win makes it a challenge. Honestly those that are primarily win betters only, make it easier on themselves than guys who are playing exotics and trying to have a nice hit. It's a race where racing luck is always a huge factor.
Starting with 20 horses then weaning them down one by one to find out who you really like is a lot of fun, if you're into that kinda exercise.
The only horse I would have in the bottom of any exotics would be American Promise.
Everything in his recent form says bounce, but he's coming in off 49 days rest and many of the stronger contenders are coming in off 25 or 28 days and their racing history shows they have not run well in those instances.
Example, East Avenue is a horse neither of us like and for good reason. In his career he has run a 6,3,10//11,3.
Technically, he has 2 Performance Numbers that "give him a chance", but if you look at the race spacing he's had, it looks really hard for him to get the distance.
42 days he goes from a 6 to a 3. 27 days he goes from a 3 to a 10. Then the 3 year old season, a layoff of 106 days and runs a 11, then a gap of 52 days and he runs another 3. Now he's expected to run well and get the distance off of only 25 days rest? I highly doubt it.
By the way, NOT disagreeing with you here, just pointing out that in addition to post draw and running style I like to add additional factors before I totally toss a horse.
I’m with you about multiple factors..I hate the way DWL is working the horse…I think he’s training him to be a runoff.
I’m more of a “that one looks good” kind of bettor. 😉. Somebody has to finance the rest of you who do the homework.
That’s where Assmussen gets me all the time(not necessarily Derby day as much).
His horses are always turned out fantastic…and I’m not talking about the braids which obviously mean nothing.
Asmussen is coming into the Derby with 2 horses, Tiztastic and the maiden Publisher. Oddly enough, I'm gonna have Publisher on the bottom half of some of my exotics because he has been outworking Tiztastic by a ton and since Asmussen added the blinkers from Publisher last out, that horse took a big jump forward. He wasn't gonna catch Sandman in his last race, but this horse will get the distance.
His pattern is 17,14,11//11,7,3. Last year as a 2 year old, he was very slow. He began his 3 year old season with matching his best 2 year old performance, then in his second out he moved forward 4 points again. Then they took the blinkers off and he moved forward another 4 points. So, the 3 in his last race makes him an outside contender if things fall just right for him. He had 34 days off between his "7" and the "3" and now he comes into the Derby with 35 days rest, so he's a relatively fresh horse on Derby day. He's had 6 career races and continues to develop. I've spent money on worse animals in the Derby.
The biggest negative for me? Believe it or not its because Irad Ortiz is riding. Now, we both know either Irad or Prat are the two best jockeys in the country. Problem is, in the Derby, Prat has ridden 7 times and moved 5 horses up, in other words, they ran better performance figures in the Derby than their last prep race.
Irad is 0-7 in that category. That can change since he's a great jockey, just hasn't gotten it done yet. A point I have to make is Prat is named as the jockey on Neoequos but IF Baeza draws in Prat is named, and will ride Baeza in the Derby. That would make Baeza very dangerous.
If the spirit moves me, and guys don't start giving me shit, I'll try to do a little analysis similar to this to maybe give some insight as to why a horse may or may not run well. Purely a chance project since all things change once that gate opens. I can't guarantee who will win or even run well, but I can guarantee chaos will ensue.
The last piece I'll do, maybe Thursday or Friday is the individual and herd dynamics of the main contenders/or any horse that one of the forum members would like my thoughts about. Just understand, I'm not going to talk anyone onto a horse or off a horse because people are entitled to wager their own opinions and I've been wrong before. The caveat being I did tell dingle that Journalism looks very tough, but I doubt any horseplayer would disagree.
MEANWHILE PELINI, I WANT YOUR INPUT SO OTHERS THAT READ THIS CAN HAVE AS MUCH INSIGHT AS POSSIBLE. I've been waiting 3 years for you to get heavily involved in this process...make it happen.
(**Edited**)
Last edited:
I will use both Publisher and Grande underneath in the exotics. Grande will be a bit closer to the pace and could get a jump on the closers. Johnny V is a patient rider and should have Grande in a good position when it matters. I don't like the fact that Grande will only be making his 4th lifetime start but the numbers show he is on the improve. Whether either horse is good enough to hit the board, we will see.
100% with you on Publisher, but I definitely learned my lesson on Irad last year.
Dude has no fear of ground-loss when he’s on Brown rocket ships the rest of the year.
Publisher is a fairly well bred colt but I don’t like seeing 2 year olds run much if at all. He raced 4 times as a 2. Some equine vets suggest you’re asking for break downs by racing 2 year olds at all. His damn won a couple stakes races. As I’m sure you know his sire won a Breeder’s Cup among others. It’s not surprising that a 3 year old colt would get stronger as he matures.
I love looking at pedigrees but haven’t done that for years. My background was Quarter Horses and they’re a mess now with all the inbreeding and genetic defects.
Last race he moved from a 5 to a 0.50 because of a totally ground loaded trip. In his 2nd career out, in a 7 horse field he was 3w3w, then in the Wood he was 6w3w in a 10 horse field, so he may be a horse that really doesn't like kickback from the surface.
Pletcher and Repole team up and always have some expensive, nicely bred animals that tend to get pushed pretty hard in the preps in order to make it into the Derby. Now, in the Wood, Dylan Davis rode the horse and not Johnny V, so as you say, Johnny will try to map out a much better trip, cause 6w3w in the Derby would be bad news.
Breaking from the 10 hole is a very good spot for him to try to settle in. Anything close to a 0.50 puts him right in the hunt.
Last out he was 2w3w in a 9 horse field and lost a ground late the last 1/8th of a mile, so the more I look at him, the less I like him. LOL
The Arkansas Derby was not that strong of a prep race.
Yeah but I’m not sure what to do with Sandman either.
Horse runs like a drunken sailor in the lane.
To be honest, the Kentucky Derby is a race that ruins a lot of real good horses, never to be heard from again. There are your exceptions like Pharoah, Justify, Curlin, etc, but by and large most horses are pushed so hard to just get into the Derby, it takes toll.
Something to consider. Horses that run from far off the pace stand to last a lot longer as racehorses than those who have to be on the lead or in the first flights of races. The fact being, those in front, unless they get an easy lead, are having to push hard and use a lot of energy for much of the race, not only physical energy but mental energy. Versus those off the pace who can settle into their comfortable strides and then make one sustained drive of about 45 seconds or so, as a result it is a lot less taxing on their bodies. Of course, there are exceptions to both my positions.
In a little bit, I'll break down 4 different prep races, how they were run, the top contenders that were in those races, and WHAT those races actually proved. It's interesting (for some of us) and helps myself to determine what I consider to be "matchups" of certain horses. I.E. Journalism v. Soverignty and Sandman v. Burnham Street, then all 4 horses compared to each other.
Last edited:
He was chasing a 45.1 half mile and a 1:10 6 furlong time. He also came home pretty slow compared to several others from other preps.
The interesting thing about race horses is they view races not in terms of distance, but rather in terms of duration. When they get in the starting gate, they don't know how far they're gonna run, so the distance becomes secondary to the duration they are engaged in battle with other horses.
The view of the track from the new addition is going to be pretty bad ass. Just saw it last week.
Interesting as everytime I see a 1:10 6 F time, as thats Fonnor Park alltime 6 F record. Orphan Kist!😊😊
Yep, going 2 turns on a bullring is a lot different that a one turn 6f on a mile track. I used to play Linda Davidson and also her dad Wayne who was a helluva horseman too.
I haven't been doing much on the Derby on this site cause there's been very little interest here and I've spent the majority of my time on another site that has more appreciation for what I do. LOL
I've pretty well narrowed down my plays so now its just a waiting game for the weather, any late defections, etc.
After that, the gate opens and see how it all unfolds.
Good to hear from you dp, hope things are well for you in Hastings.
This one makes things so much easier for me.
Not saying I’m gonna win, but Rodriguez was definitely a wildcard for me if somehow the horse could sit off another one and finish…which he hasn’t done yet though.
Fairly long post, so could be a TLDR type read.
I have supreme confidence that Prat will ride Baeza as good as can be ridden, having said that, if you analyze the post he's in, and all the speed inside of him, he's gonna have to be really special to overcome that post.
Citizen Bull, Neoequos, American Promise, Admire Daytona, Journalism, Grande, East Avenue, Coal Battle, Chunk of Gold, Owen Almighty are all gonna ship. With Citizen Bull the fastest of the bunch.
Within 5 stalls, there is speed all around Baeza so if they all break sharp, he is no faster than Coal Battle, Chunk or Owen and he could be forced to run straight for a while before they all move over, all the while the other front runners and the horses in the second flight create distance between them and these outer horses.
Not considering Baeza has faced fields of 11, 6, 6, and 5 so its gonna be like going from 6 man football to 22 man football overnight. Not talking Baeza down here because he is one of the 3-4 fastest in the race and cause I really like Shireffs, but the mentality of that horse is his ability to process individual herd dynamics while he's on the move, and he could get bogged down by having to contend with a lot of sensory issues which will be new to him.
Yet, there's no one better than Sheriffs at getting a young horse ready, methodical as he is. John has brought 4 horses into the Derby and 2 of them have run new tops, and that's never been done by anyone. Add to the fact that Prat has moved up 5 of his 7 Derby mounts and it gets interesting. If Baeza ran a 0 last out, and that's a number good enough to win this, any equal or better number will make him a real threat to win. He's just gonna have to overcome a lot of adversity, even if he breaks really sharp.
Considering the way Journalism got "MUGGED" in the Santa Anita Derby, there's no question he is a much superior animal than Baeza. Baffert had 2 in the race and the horse next to Journalism literally banged him almost into the rail, then reached out to hinder the jockey, this all at the same time as Baffert's other horse just in front was starting to back up. But Journalism showed how good he "could" be, because he lost several lengths in that fray, yet was still good enough to run right by Baeza late in that 9f race. (Watch the overhead of that race.) If you slow it down to 50% or 25% you can see 2 different times the jockey on the 3 horse looks back to see which horse is coming. Baffert is a real piece of work.
I feel bad that Mike Smith lost the mount when Rodriguez scratched. People may not know but Mike has ridden in 29 Derby's, the first one at age 19 and this would have been his 30th. I don't feel bad that Baffert lost an entry.
The 5 horses that have been really outstanding in workouts is Soverignty, Burnham Square, East Avenue, Citizen Bull and Journalism. Early on it looked like a pretty chalky Derby, but now it looks like some real prices have a shot, and that's what we want, right?
I'm just wondering which one of these 20 horses that I'm not playing is gonna bite me in the ass. LOL
Maybe tomorrow, instead of saying what the strengths of all these individual horses are I'll try to post what each horse must avoid to give themselves the best chance. Sometimes a weakness that doesn't appear in the race is more valuable that a good trait that does.
As it stands, I'm probably gonna play Journalism along with 5 others in the exotics. All of them are double digits, although I see now way Soverignty is 12/1, more like 6/1.
My biggest concern with Journalism is jockey Rispoli. This is an awfully big stage for a tremendous jockey who really hasn't been exposed to this much pressure before. He's gonna have to answer an awful lot of questions in 2 minutes.
Last edited:
I used to love going to State Fair Park and stare at the racing form. The amount of data to consider can be overwhelming.
Similar threads
