Is Spencer Petras the worst starting QB in the Big Ten West?

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Cornicator

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You stand to make a lot of money if you head to Iowa and place some bets. Iowa currently -14.5 against Purdue, -10.5 against NW, -6.5 against Nebraska, -6.5 against Minnesota, -3.5 against Penn State. Those first two are extremely tempting even for me.

Purdue and NW will be terrible.

But I will give you the points and 100 bucks on the other 3 games right now.

Let me know if you're down.

@Pennsyhusker will be our witness. He's a doctor and understands ghosts.. we can trust him.
 

scarletred

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Purdue and NW will be terrible.

But I will give you the points and 100 bucks on the other 3 games right now.

Let me know if you're down.

@Pennsyhusker will be our witness. He's a doctor and understands ghosts.. we can trust him.

Ioway always struggles with NW not alone a -10.5 favorite..
 

BoilerN

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Purdue and NW will be terrible.

But I will give you the points and 100 bucks on the other 3 games right now.

Let me know if you're down.

@Pennsyhusker will be our witness. He's a doctor and understands ghosts.. we can trust him.
Purdue is probably a .500 team this year and improving. Bottomed out two years ago, wasn't far from a winning record last year, upgraded their entire defensive staff.

Purdue is also 3-1 vs Iowa since Brohm got there.
 
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9and4

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You stand to make a lot of money if you head to Iowa and place some bets. Iowa currently -14.5 against Purdue, -10.5 against NW, -6.5 against Nebraska, -6.5 against Minnesota, -3.5 against Penn State. Those first two are extremely tempting even for me.
Hawks will punish PU. Home faves by less than a TD against Minnesota and PSU? If I had to, I'd bet Iowa. Nebraska is too much of a wildcard at this point to know if they have a chance.
 
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Clonewithasigh

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Iowa finished #1 nationally last season in yards allowed per play. That stat is the ultimate marker of defensive dominance. I think a legit argument can be made that Iowa would've scared the ever living shit out of Justin Fields and Ohio State in a Big Ten title game last season.

But of course, Iowa finished with 2 losses, and could've lost to Nebraska, if not for that tremendous defense. Why did they start 0-2 and nearly drop a game to the Huskers?

Spencer Petras

His completion percentage and yards per attempt in 2020 were the worst among Iowa QB's going back to 1999, when Ferentz first took over for Hayden Fry. His struggles in 2020 are even more magnified when you consider the fact that he had 4 Legit NFL pass catchers:

Smith- Marsette
Brandon Smith
TE Shaun Beyer
TE Sam Laporta - who will get drafted next season.

He also had an excellent offensive line offering exceptional pass pro including Alaric Jackson and one of the top centers in the country, Tyler Linderbaum. And lets not forget Tyler Goodson stresses defenses with his running ability.



As we look ahead to 2021, things are going to get a lot tougher for Petras:

1. While Tyrone Tracy is a solid #1 receiver, Nico Raigaini is far from a viable #2, and would struggle to start for most teams in the Big Ten. Iowa is replacing two NFL guys with two dudes who won't sniff the league. That's a significant drop in talent.

2. Punt Returner Charlie Jones has been a quality special teams player for the Hawks, but he's never caught a single pass in the Big Ten.

3. True Freshmen Arland Bruce and Keagan Johnson are already pencilled in to be #2 receivers for Iowa. Kirk Ferentz rarely plays true freshmen, and he's even less likely to play freshman on an offensive skill position. You can look all around the Big Ten West, and neither of those two would be factors in the WR 2-Deep at any other West program.


Iowa has been consistent for a number of years, and that consistency has garnered them a lot of respect from the media and college football as whole. But Iowa is really drawing far too much value right now from preseason mags and media types. I think a lot of people aren't really doing their homework.

When you look deep at Spencer Petras, add the key skill player losses, and then factor in their extremely inexperienced Defensive Front, Iowa looks far more vulnerable than people think.
Let me give some context to the almighty defense in Iowa City. These are the total offense rankings of their opponents in 2020:

PSU - 37
Neb - 66
Minn - 69
Purdue - 70
NW - 93
Illinois- 98
Wisky - 103
Mich St - 109

The average total offense the hawks played against is 81st in the country.
 
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Cornicator

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Let me give some context to the almighty defense in Iowa City. These are the total offense rankings of their opponents in 2020:

PSU - 37
Neb - 66
Minn - 69
Purdue - 70
NW - 93
Illinois- 98
Wisky - 103
Mich St - 109

The average total offense the hawks played against is 81st in the country.

To be fair, you played in the Big 12, which is like 8 midgets playing basketball with two 7 footers every season.
 

Clonewithasigh

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To be fair, you played in the Big 12, which is like 8 midgets playing basketball with two 7 footers every season.
Much stronger offenses in the B12. Just remember that the midgets and 7 footers in the B12 went 5-0 in bowl games with 2 NY 6 wins. The Big 10 is offensively challenged, but appears to be attempting to rectify that situation with more spread offenses. By your analysis, the B10 would be 13 midgets with one 7 footer, and that was obvious by the B10 changing rules at the end of the season to accommodate that 7 footer. I am surprised that you actually went there after the very disrespectful way the B10 responded to the huskers wishes to play last year when it appeared the B10 wasn’t going to play.
 
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BoilerN

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Let me give some context to the almighty defense in Iowa City. These are the total offense rankings of their opponents in 2020:

PSU - 37
Neb - 66
Minn - 69
Purdue - 70
NW - 93
Illinois- 98
Wisky - 103
Mich St - 109

The average total offense the hawks played against is 81st in the country.
To be fair, Iowa played Purdue before they lost their QB and 3 OLman.
 

Flick2.0

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Let me give some context to the almighty defense in Iowa City. These are the total offense rankings of their opponents in 2020:

PSU - 37
Neb - 66
Minn - 69
Purdue - 70
NW - 93
Illinois- 98
Wisky - 103
Mich St - 109

The average total offense the hawks played against is 81st in the country.
What would their ranking be if they didn’t have to play Iowa’s defense?
 

scarletred

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Can you tell us the last time Iowa’s defense got lit up? I’m giving the 2020 squad the benefit of the doubt.
Helps out when you only play tOSU once every 7 to 8 years in conference play and the only non conference game is against ISU..👏👏
 

Husker Hank

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Iowa finished #1 nationally last season in yards allowed per play. That stat is the ultimate marker of defensive dominance. I think a legit argument can be made that Iowa would've scared the ever living shit out of Justin Fields and Ohio State in a Big Ten title game last season.

But of course, Iowa finished with 2 losses, and could've lost to Nebraska, if not for that tremendous defense. Why did they start 0-2 and nearly drop a game to the Huskers?

Spencer Petras

His completion percentage and yards per attempt in 2020 were the worst among Iowa QB's going back to 1999, when Ferentz first took over for Hayden Fry. His struggles in 2020 are even more magnified when you consider the fact that he had 4 Legit NFL pass catchers:

Smith- Marsette
Brandon Smith
TE Shaun Beyer
TE Sam Laporta - who will get drafted next season.

He also had an excellent offensive line offering exceptional pass pro including Alaric Jackson and one of the top centers in the country, Tyler Linderbaum. And lets not forget Tyler Goodson stresses defenses with his running ability.



As we look ahead to 2021, things are going to get a lot tougher for Petras:

1. While Tyrone Tracy is a solid #1 receiver, Nico Raigaini is far from a viable #2, and would struggle to start for most teams in the Big Ten. Iowa is replacing two NFL guys with two dudes who won't sniff the league. That's a significant drop in talent.

2. Punt Returner Charlie Jones has been a quality special teams player for the Hawks, but he's never caught a single pass in the Big Ten.

3. True Freshmen Arland Bruce and Keagan Johnson are already pencilled in to be #2 receivers for Iowa. Kirk Ferentz rarely plays true freshmen, and he's even less likely to play freshman on an offensive skill position. You can look all around the Big Ten West, and neither of those two would be factors in the WR 2-Deep at any other West program.


Iowa has been consistent for a number of years, and that consistency has garnered them a lot of respect from the media and college football as whole. But Iowa is really drawing far too much value right now from preseason mags and media types. I think a lot of people aren't really doing their homework.

When you look deep at Spencer Petras, add the key skill player losses, and then factor in their extremely inexperienced Defensive Front, Iowa looks far more vulnerable than people think.
Please God, let Keagan Johnson get reps against the Huskers this year!

giphy.gif
 
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John_J_Rambo

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Helps out when you only play tOSU once every 7 to 8 years in conference play and the only non conference game is against ISU..👏👏
B1G is the most offensively challenged conference in the history of organized football.

The opposition scoring 24+ in a game (OT included) is a barnburner in this boring ass, win-nothing, loser league.
 
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wkato

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Much stronger offenses in the B12. Just remember that the midgets and 7 footers in the B12 went 5-0 in bowl games with 2 NY 6 wins. The Big 10 is offensively challenged, but appears to be attempting to rectify that situation with more spread offenses. By your analysis, the B10 would be 13 midgets with one 7 footer, and that was obvious by the B10 changing rules at the end of the season to accommodate that 7 footer. I am surprised that you actually went there after the very disrespectful way the B10 responded to the huskers wishes to play last year when it appeared the B10 wasn’t going to play.
But yet you lose to one of those midgets each year with the exception of your bye year in 2020. I only bring that up because of your post above and the fact I root for ISU for one game each year and ISU keeps letting me down each year. Offences always look great when the defensive play is lacking. We all know the Big 12 sold-out on playing D.
 

leodisflowers

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Much stronger offenses in the B12. Just remember that the midgets and 7 footers in the B12 went 5-0 in bowl games with 2 NY 6 wins. The Big 10 is offensively challenged, but appears to be attempting to rectify that situation with more spread offenses. By your analysis, the B10 would be 13 midgets with one 7 footer, and that was obvious by the B10 changing rules at the end of the season to accommodate that 7 footer. I am surprised that you actually went there after the very disrespectful way the B10 responded to the huskers wishes to play last year when it appeared the B10 wasn’t going to play.
Much stronger offenses because most teams play no D. Also, ISU can't beat Iowa and if the B10 is so bad, why can't a supposed upper echelon team like ISU beat a middle of the pack Big 10 team?
 
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scarletred

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Last season both the Big12 and the B1G had 6 teams in the top 50 in total defense..Nebraska was one of the 6 for the B1G..

Total offense the Big12 had 6 teams in the top 50 and the B1G only had two, Ohio St and Penn St..

Fact is the B1G offense‘s have been very mediocre..
 

Clonewithasigh

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Much stronger offenses because most teams play no D. Also, ISU can't beat Iowa and if the B10 is so bad, why can't a supposed upper echelon team like ISU beat a middle of the pack Big 10 team?
I have a few stats for you. In 2019 the final score of the game was 18-17. A closer look at the game reveals a couple of things. ISU averaged 7.9 yds/play while Iowa averaged 4.5 yds/play. An analysis of the last 500 NCAA games prior to this game, when the production disparity was this large, revealed that the lower production team was 1-499. Iowa had a .2% chance of winning that game. Add in that ISU lost 2 fumbles and Iowa lost 0, and that makes the game closer. But we aren’t done there. ISU was moving for the winning score and Iowa committed the most blatant PI and it was called, but after the PI flag was thrown a flag came out in the backfield for the only holding call of the game. Replays showed there was nothing even near resembling a hold, so the BIG 10 REFS doing the game got their say in the outcome. This was late in the game but the Clones held the hawks and forced a punt, but the return man fumbled the punt thus ending the game. Since ISU really became a top B12 team in the last year, they have yet to play that middle of the Big 10 West team. The first line that came out on this game is ISU -7 which indicates easily a two score game at a minimum. I hope the Huskers kick the hawks ass this year, btw.
 

leodisflowers

Recruiting Coordinator
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I have a few stats for you. In 2019 the final score of the game was 18-17. A closer look at the game reveals a couple of things. ISU averaged 7.9 yds/play while Iowa averaged 4.5 yds/play. An analysis of the last 500 NCAA games prior to this game, when the production disparity was this large, revealed that the lower production team was 1-499. Iowa had a .2% chance of winning that game. Add in that ISU lost 2 fumbles and Iowa lost 0, and that makes the game closer. But we aren’t done there. ISU was moving for the winning score and Iowa committed the most blatant PI and it was called, but after the PI flag was thrown a flag came out in the backfield for the only holding call of the game. Replays showed there was nothing even near resembling a hold, so the BIG 10 REFS doing the game got their say in the outcome. This was late in the game but the Clones held the hawks and forced a punt, but the return man fumbled the punt thus ending the game. Since ISU really became a top B12 team in the last year, they have yet to play that middle of the Big 10 West team. The first line that came out on this game is ISU -7 which indicates easily a two score game at a minimum. I hope the Huskers kick the hawks ass this year, btw.

I've got a stat for you. They have won the last 5 and that is all that ****in matters. Nebraska out stats a lot of teams, but can't beat them. Wins and losses are what matters and just like I said ISU is currently on the upper tier of the Big 12 and still can't beat a middle of the road Big 10 team. Not a hard concept. The fact you have to base your argument on officiating makes it even more comical.
 

BoilerN

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Last season both the Big12 and the B1G had 6 teams in the top 50 in total defense..Nebraska was one of the 6 for the B1G..

Total offense the Big12 had 6 teams in the top 50 and the B1G only had two, Ohio St and Penn St..

Fact is the B1G offense‘s have been very mediocre..
What is the number in ppg for offense and defense? That's what I care about. Not total defense or offense.
 

Clonewithasigh

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I've got a stat for you. They have won the last 5 and that is all that ****in matters. Nebraska out stats a lot of teams, but can't beat them. Wins and losses are what matters and just like I said ISU is currently on the upper tier of the Big 12 and still can't beat a middle of the road Big 10 team. Not a hard concept. The fact you have to base your argument on officiating makes it even more comical.
Hawks got bailed out by the league. The game should have been a blowout, but that is coming this year. Good luck against Indiana in that first game! LOL! Which game does KF focus on? This is very foreign territory for him as he rarely has to prepare for a competent opponent in game 1. Other questions arise as well because the chef is gone, and how committed are the black players amid all the racist accusations against the program. With BF still in the fold, there is bound to be resentment.
 

Tuco Salamanca

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What is the number in ppg for offense and defense? That's what I care about. Not total defense or offense.
That is lazy, over the course of a season, a team that moves the ball well on offense, be that per play or per game, will typically score a decent amount of points. Likewise, a team that doesn't allow many yards per play or per game, will typically not give up a large number of points. Simply put there isn't many teams that average less than 5 yards per play or less than 400 yards per game scoring huge amounts of points per game, most of the time the stats

Top 10 scoring offenses with ppg and ypp
1) Kent St 49.8 4) 7.44
2) Alabama 48.5 - 2) 7.81
3) BYU 43.5 - 1) 7.84
3) Clemson 43.5 - 15) 6.69
5) Buffalo 43.4 - 6) 7.33
6) Oklahoma 43.0 - 10) 6.97
7) Texas 42.7 - 18) 6.65
8) UCF 42.2 - 20) 6.61
9) North Carolina 41.7 - 3) 7.59
9) Western Michigan 41.7 - 5) 7.34

7 of the top 10 scoring offenses were also top 10 in yards per play

Teams that were top 10 in YPP, but not in top 10 in ppg - followed by their ranking in PPG
7) Ohio St 7.29 11) 41.0
8) Florida 7.28 13) 40.3
8) Arizona St 7.28 12) 39.8
10) Mississippi 6.97 14) 39.2

So there is a direct correlation between yards per play and points per game.
 

BoilerN

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That is lazy, over the course of a season, a team that moves the ball well on offense, be that per play or per game, will typically score a decent amount of points. Likewise, a team that doesn't allow many yards per play or per game, will typically not give up a large number of points. Simply put there isn't many teams that average less than 5 yards per play or less than 400 yards per game scoring huge amounts of points per game, most of the time the stats

Top 10 scoring offenses with ppg and ypp
1) Kent St 49.8 4) 7.44
2) Alabama 48.5 - 2) 7.81
3) BYU 43.5 - 1) 7.84
3) Clemson 43.5 - 15) 6.69
5) Buffalo 43.4 - 6) 7.33
6) Oklahoma 43.0 - 10) 6.97
7) Texas 42.7 - 18) 6.65
8) UCF 42.2 - 20) 6.61
9) North Carolina 41.7 - 3) 7.59
9) Western Michigan 41.7 - 5) 7.34

7 of the top 10 scoring offenses were also top 10 in yards per play

Teams that were top 10 in YPP, but not in top 10 in ppg - followed by their ranking in PPG
7) Ohio St 7.29 11) 41.0
8) Florida 7.28 13) 40.3
8) Arizona St 7.28 12) 39.8
10) Mississippi 6.97 14) 39.2

So there is a direct correlation between yards per play and points per game.
I agree on ypp and ppg, but total offense and defense is defined by more than those to metrics, correct?
 

John_J_Rambo

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I've got a stat for you. They have won the last 5 and that is all that ****in matters. Nebraska out stats a lot of teams, but can't beat them. Wins and losses are what matters and just like I said ISU is currently on the upper tier of the Big 12 and still can't beat a middle of the road Big 10 team. Not a hard concept. The fact you have to base your argument on officiating makes it even more comical.
our fans literally point to a holding call as the reason we lost last year

funny enough, we also held them, forced a punt, muffed it, and sealed our own fate
 

leodisflowers

Recruiting Coordinator
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Hawks got bailed out by the league. The game should have been a blowout, but that is coming this year. Good luck against Indiana in that first game! LOL! Which game does KF focus on? This is very foreign territory for him as he rarely has to prepare for a competent opponent in game 1. Other questions arise as well because the chef is gone, and how committed are the black players amid all the racist accusations against the program. With BF still in the fold, there is bound to be resentment.
I'm not an Iowa fan, so I could care less....
 

leodisflowers

Recruiting Coordinator
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our fans literally point to a holding call as the reason we lost last year

funny enough, we also held them, forced a punt, muffed it, and sealed our own fate
Maybe in the moment??? I don't know. I'm a fan and I know that Iowa has the scoreboard on us. I don't go back and look at if we out yarded them or any of the other shit. Scoreboard is what matters. Maybe in the heat of battle I will bitch about the officiating, but as the dust settles I don't remember half of those little items. There are a few that stick out. The 1982 Penn St. game, that was horrendous. The 93 title game when Corey Dixon's return was overturned and possibly the 2009 Big 12 title game when they gave crying Mack B one phantom second.

I know what you are saying as we do tend to whine about a few things, but I don't believe most of us are other on other boards saying the only reason we lose is officiating. I think most of our fans know that coaching and many bad hiring decisions have made Nebraska suck over the years.
 

Tuco Salamanca

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I agree on ypp and ppg, but total offense and defense is defined by more than those to metrics, correct?
As far as I know total offense is just the total number of yards a team gained both rushing and passing combined. What more could there be in total offense or total defense?
 

hedonistimpulse

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FEI is the best cumulative statistic in college football and the multi-linked site below conveniently displays the variables that make up the statistic, too.



Fyi, Iowa State was very good offensively and defensively last year. Iowa was very good defensively. Nebraska wasn't very good at either.

But if you really want to have a long Monday, take note of Oklahoma being better defensively (#7) than they were offensively (#19) last year. Gross.
 

BoilerN

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As far as I know total offense is just the total number of yards a team gained both rushing and passing combined. What more could there be in total offense or total defense?
That, idk. But I think to the Purdue Nebraska game last year and due to bad ST's play, Purdue essentially spotted Nebraska 17 points by giving them a short field. That would skew the number no?

Looking at ppg, Purdue was 7th in the big ten in offense, 8th on defense. Maybe that aligns with your numbers above? I was moreso just curious.
 

Tuco Salamanca

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That, idk. But I think to the Purdue Nebraska game last year and due to bad ST's play, Purdue essentially spotted Nebraska 17 points by giving them a short field. That would skew the number no?

Looking at ppg, Purdue was 7th in the big ten in offense, 8th on defense. Maybe that aligns with your numbers above? I was moreso just curious.
And Purdue was six in total offense and eighth in total defense.
 

BoilerN

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And Purdue was six in total offense and eighth in total defense.
Ah. Ok. The national numbers seemed low for being middle of the pack big ten tbh.

You could probs never find the data and this is more me thinking out loud, but I wonder how young teams that return everyone tend to do after being middle of the pack big ten by most metrics do in the next year? Obviously transfers and an upgraded coaching staff added in would make it almost impossible to get an accurate gauge on that.
 

John_J_Rambo

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To answer the original question in the OP. I think Petras probably was one of the worst QB's in the conference when Nebraska played Iowa, but wasn't by the end of the season,
a look at the box score:

petras - 18/30, 193yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 6 carries, 6yds
AM - 18/20, 174yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 12 carries, 28yds, 1 TD, 1 FumL

pretty darn similar, except, of course, one player's team won, the other's lost

EDIT: for those who champion completion percentage, the inbreds had 2 more first downs than us, despite running for 2.9 yards/carry and throwing 10 more incompletions.
 
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