Is Spencer Petras the worst starting QB in the Big Ten West?

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Cornicator

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Iowa finished #1 nationally last season in yards allowed per play. That stat is the ultimate marker of defensive dominance. I think a legit argument can be made that Iowa would've scared the ever living shit out of Justin Fields and Ohio State in a Big Ten title game last season.

But of course, Iowa finished with 2 losses, and could've lost to Nebraska, if not for that tremendous defense. Why did they start 0-2 and nearly drop a game to the Huskers?

Spencer Petras

His completion percentage and yards per attempt in 2020 were the worst among Iowa QB's going back to 1999, when Ferentz first took over for Hayden Fry. His struggles in 2020 are even more magnified when you consider the fact that he had 4 Legit NFL pass catchers:

Smith- Marsette
Brandon Smith
TE Shaun Beyer
TE Sam Laporta - who will get drafted next season.

He also had an excellent offensive line offering exceptional pass pro including Alaric Jackson and one of the top centers in the country, Tyler Linderbaum. And lets not forget Tyler Goodson stresses defenses with his running ability.



As we look ahead to 2021, things are going to get a lot tougher for Petras:

1. While Tyrone Tracy is a solid #1 receiver, Nico Raigaini is far from a viable #2, and would struggle to start for most teams in the Big Ten. Iowa is replacing two NFL guys with two dudes who won't sniff the league. That's a significant drop in talent.

2. Punt Returner Charlie Jones has been a quality special teams player for the Hawks, but he's never caught a single pass in the Big Ten.

3. True Freshmen Arland Bruce and Keagan Johnson are already pencilled in to be #2 receivers for Iowa. Kirk Ferentz rarely plays true freshmen, and he's even less likely to play freshman on an offensive skill position. You can look all around the Big Ten West, and neither of those two would be factors in the WR 2-Deep at any other West program.


Iowa has been consistent for a number of years, and that consistency has garnered them a lot of respect from the media and college football as whole. But Iowa is really drawing far too much value right now from preseason mags and media types. I think a lot of people aren't really doing their homework.

When you look deep at Spencer Petras, add the key skill player losses, and then factor in their extremely inexperienced Defensive Front, Iowa looks far more vulnerable than people think.
 

ShaggynScooby

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Iowa finished #1 nationally last season in yards allowed per play. That stat is the ultimate marker of defensive dominance. I think a legit argument can be made that Iowa would've scared the ever living shit out of Justin Fields and Ohio State in a Big Ten title game last season.

But of course, Iowa finished with 2 losses, and could've lost to Nebraska, if not for that tremendous defense. Why did they start 0-2 and nearly drop a game to the Huskers?

Spencer Petras

His completion percentage and yards per attempt in 2020 were the worst among Iowa QB's going back to 1999, when Ferentz first took over for Hayden Fry. His struggles in 2020 are even more magnified when you consider the fact that he had 4 Legit NFL pass catchers:

Smith- Marsette
Brandon Smith
TE Shaun Beyer
TE Sam Laporta - who will get drafted next season.

He also had an excellent offensive line offering exceptional pass pro including Alaric Jackson and one of the top centers in the country, Tyler Linderbaum. And lets not forget Tyler Goodson stresses defenses with his running ability.



As we look ahead to 2021, things are going to get a lot tougher for Petras:

1. While Tyrone Tracy is a solid #1 receiver, Nico Raigaini is far from a viable #2, and would struggle to start for most teams in the Big Ten. Iowa is replacing two NFL guys with two dudes who won't sniff the league. That's a significant drop in talent.

2. Punt Returner Charlie Jones has been a quality special teams player for the Hawks, but he's never caught a single pass in the Big Ten.

3. True Freshmen Arland Bruce and Keagan Johnson are already pencilled in to be #2 receivers for Iowa. Kirk Ferentz rarely plays true freshmen, and he's even less likely to play freshman on an offensive skill position. You can look all around the Big Ten West, and neither of those two would be factors in the WR 2-Deep at any other West program.


Iowa has been consistent for a number of years, and that consistency has garnered them a lot of respect from the media and college football as whole. But Iowa is really drawing far too much value right now from preseason mags and media types. I think a lot of people aren't really doing their homework.

When you look deep at Spencer Petras, add the key skill player losses, and then factor in their extremely inexperienced Defensive Front, Iowa looks far more vulnerable than people think.
The book on Petras is still open, he did break every HS record of Jared Goff, the potential is there, and he did get better as the season rolled on. However, he did not set the world on fire with the tools he had around him, so I guess we will have our answer in a few weeks.
 

Tuco Salamanca

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Iowa played 2 teams with winning records. Wisconsin 4-3 and Northwestern 7-2. The offenses they faced ranked like this in yards per play-

Purdue 5.7 Big Ten - 4th National - 59th
Minnesota 5.68 5th - 62nd
Nebraska 5.56 6th - 72nd
Penn St 5.46 7th - 83rd
Illinois 5.36 9th - 89th
Wisconsin 4.89 11th - 106th
Michigan St 4.81 12th - 108th
Northwestern 4.79 13th - 110th

It doesn't look like those offenses moved the ball on anyone.
 

SWIowahawks

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Spencer was definitely rough to begin the season but got pretty good at the end. No spring ball had to have an affect on the new QB. 6 TDs to 1 INT and a completion percentage in the 60% range in his last four games. It’s a shame games against Michigan and Missouri were cancelled to end the season.
 

Tuco Salamanca

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Sorry to hijack the Iowa thread but.....

It is a lot more work, but to me, the best way to judge statistics is to base them on average against everyone else.
For example. In this situation we can use Purdue and Northwestern.

The best offense in yards per play was Purdue. Purdue averaged 5.7 yards per play in total.
Iowa allowed 4.34 yards per play in total
.
Purdue averaged 5.87 per play against everyone else, not including Iowa, and 5.01 against Iowa. Iowa held Purdue to roughly 85% of Purdue's season average. but,
Iowa allowed 4.23 per play against everyone else, not including Purdue, and 5.01 against Purdue, Purdue's yard per play offensively was 118% of what Iowa held everyone else to.

The worst offense, in yards per play, was Northwestern. Northwestern averaged 4.79 yards per play in total.
Again Iowa allowed 4.34 yards per play in total.

Northwestern averaged 4.96 yards per play against everyone else, not including Iowa, and 3.50 against Iowa. Iowa held Northwestern to roughly 71% of Northwestern's season average.
Iowa allowed 4.47 yards per play against everyone else, not including Northwestern, and 3.50 yards per play against Northwestern. Northwestern's yard per play offensively was 81% of what Iowa held everyone else to.

You can do this for the season and against all teams. This shows me that Iowa held Purdue to less than their normal output but Iowa defense was not as good against Purdue as it was against other teams on the schedule.
Against Northwestern, Iowa held Northwestern to less than their normal output and Iowa's defense was better against Northwestern than it was against everyone else.

If your defense has numbers less than 100% in a majority of your games, that is an indicator of a solid defense. If your offense has numbers greater than 100% in a majority of your games, that is an indicator of a solid offense.
 

SWIowahawks

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Defensive dominance is points per game. Period.
This. How far below a season PPG you hold a team is a better indicator than yards per play. Driving 90 yards to the one yard line doesn’t win you games if you don’t get the 6.

But sometimes even PPG doesn’t paint the whole picture. Minnesota using all three TO’s with under a minute to go to score a TD with their first team offense against Iowa’s 2nd/3rd stringers isn’t factored in. Same with Illinois scoring a TD with 24 seconds left just to make it 35-21.
 
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BigTimeFan75

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This. How far below a season PPG you hold a team is a better indicator than yards per play. Driving 90 yards to the one yard line doesn’t win you games if you don’t get the 6.

But sometimes even PPG doesn’t paint the whole picture. Minnesota using all three TO’s with under a minute to go to score a TD with their first team offense against Iowa’s 2nd/3rd stringers isn’t factored in. Same with Illinois scoring a TD with 24 seconds left just to make it 35-21.
Yeah I guess, we call those garbage time points/yards (Fans of Billy C hated that phrase)
 
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ShaggynScooby

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Sorry to hijack the Iowa thread but.....

It is a lot more work, but to me, the best way to judge statistics is to base them on average against everyone else.
For example. In this situation we can use Purdue and Northwestern.

The best offense in yards per play was Purdue. Purdue averaged 5.7 yards per play in total.
Iowa allowed 4.34 yards per play in total
.
Purdue averaged 5.87 per play against everyone else, not including Iowa, and 5.01 against Iowa. Iowa held Purdue to roughly 85% of Purdue's season average. but,
Iowa allowed 4.23 per play against everyone else, not including Purdue, and 5.01 against Purdue, Purdue's yard per play offensively was 118% of what Iowa held everyone else to.

The worst offense, in yards per play, was Northwestern. Northwestern averaged 4.79 yards per play in total.
Again Iowa allowed 4.34 yards per play in total.

Northwestern averaged 4.96 yards per play against everyone else, not including Iowa, and 3.50 against Iowa. Iowa held Northwestern to roughly 71% of Northwestern's season average.
Iowa allowed 4.47 yards per play against everyone else, not including Northwestern, and 3.50 yards per play against Northwestern. Northwestern's yard per play offensively was 81% of what Iowa held everyone else to.

You can do this for the season and against all teams. This shows me that Iowa held Purdue to less than their normal output but Iowa defense was not as good against Purdue as it was against other teams on the schedule.
Against Northwestern, Iowa held Northwestern to less than their normal output and Iowa's defense was better against Northwestern than it was against everyone else.

If your defense has numbers less than 100% in a majority of your games, that is an indicator of a solid defense. If your offense has numbers greater than 100% in a majority of your games, that is an indicator of a solid offense.
Iowa's DB's had a miserable day covering David Bell, which was game one and is something they cleaned up the rest of the season. Petras in game one couldn't throw the ball into the ocean if he were standing on the beach and game 2 vs NW wasn't much better, but got better as the season went. Iowa for most years have mediocre offenses and great defenses, defenses which carry the team from time to time.
 

headcard

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Defensive dominance is points per game. Period.

No it isn’t. There is a lot more to it. An offense can control the ball to protect the defense like Nebraska did in 08 as an example. An offense can also put the defense in terrible positions with TO’s and quick 3 and outs, leading to points. Which we currently do alot.
 
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Tuco Salamanca

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Iowa's DB's had a miserable day covering David Bell, which was game one and is something they cleaned up the rest of the season. Petras in game one couldn't throw the ball into the ocean if he were standing on the beach and game 2 vs NW wasn't much better, but got better as the season went. Iowa for most years have mediocre offenses and great defenses, defenses which carry the team from time to time.
No offense, but I don’t care about the it was “the first game” or the “miserable day”.
The post was about a metric I look at.
Sometimes statistics, at face value, don’t tell the whole story. That is why I like to look at how a team does, in comparison to other teams, against like opponents. Comparing Iowa’s defensive stats to say Alabama’s defensive stats is pointless. There are no like opponents. How Iowa does against their schedule doesn’t tell me they have a better defense than Alabama because the yards per play is better.
 

SWIowahawks

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No offense, but I don’t care about the it was “the first game” or the “miserable day”.
The post was about a metric I look at.
Sometimes statistics, at face value, don’t tell the whole story. That is why I like to look at how a team does, in comparison to other teams, against like opponents. Comparing Iowa’s defensive stats to say Alabama’s defensive stats is pointless. There are no like opponents. How Iowa does against their schedule doesn’t tell me they have a better defense than Alabama because the yards per play is better.
Then don’t compare them to Alabama. (Sounds snarky but it’s not). I’m like you and like comparing like opponents or comparing against averages of the rest of the season. Either way you slice it, Iowa continually has a stout defense no matter who they lose. It’s a system that works.

I know a couple years ago the talk on these boards was that defense is always good but offense sucks. If that changes, Iowa could be dangerous. Well, the offense was pretty dang good last year at scoring points. I don’t expect that to change this year.
 

SWIowahawks

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How does this thread even get started on our board when Nebraska’s QB is a bed-wetting sh!tberg of a leader/QB?!
Meh. Aside from the title, it’s good conversation for mid June. As long as facts keep being brought into it. Can’t wait for August.
 

JabroniBlvd

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Both the Smith's at WR are big losses. Each had good size which always helps as well. I would take our two TE over theirs IMO, and Beyer is now gone. LaPorta is overrated. Goodson is one of the best RB in the B10 and they always have at min have a good o-line. Their defense is good because they have the best DC in the B10 IMO - they also limit possessions to make numbers look better. On D as of now though there are no major threats like there was last year on their DL. Someone could emerge but as of now they are just above avg across the board with a good DC.
 

John_J_Rambo

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Iowa played 2 teams with winning records. Wisconsin 4-3 and Northwestern 7-2. The offenses they faced ranked like this in yards per play-

Purdue 5.7 Big Ten - 4th National - 59th
Minnesota 5.68 5th - 62nd
Nebraska 5.56 6th - 72nd
Penn St 5.46 7th - 83rd
Illinois 5.36 9th - 89th
Wisconsin 4.89 11th - 106th
Michigan St 4.81 12th - 108th
Northwestern 4.79 13th - 110th

It doesn't look like those offenses moved the ball on anyone.
Of course they didn’t. They’re B1G offenses!
 
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BigTimeFan75

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No it isn’t. There is a lot more to it. An offense can control the ball to protect the defense like Nebraska did in 08 as an example. An offense can also put the defense in terrible positions with TO’s and quick 3 and outs, leading to points. Which we currently do alot.
No, you want to let up the least amount of points possible.
 

scarletred

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Either way you slice it, Iowa continually has a stout defense no matter who they lose. It’s a system that works.

I know a couple years ago the talk on these boards was that defense is always good but offense sucks. If that changes, Iowa could be dangerous. Well, the offense was pretty dang good last year at scoring points. I don’t expect that to change this year.
Herky’s will have a very good secondary and good linebackers but the reason why Ioway was good last year was because of the defensive front….

You won’t have the luxury with depth on the D line this year…
Ioway has a fine running back in Tyler Goodson and if you ever find a QB that can make yards with his feet your offense would be more explosive but Petras 32 yards isn’t going to scare anyone, and Ioway also benefited from your defense scoring points which gave Ioway a higher average per game.
Your offense wasn’t the second best in the Big10, 7 teams averaged more yards than Ioway..
 

John_J_Rambo

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Herky’s will have a very good secondary and good linebackers but the reason why Ioway was good last year was because of the defensive front….

You won’t have the luxury with depth on the D line this year…
Ioway has a fine running back in Tyler Goodson and if you ever find a QB that can make yards with his feet your offense would be more explosive but Petras 32 yards isn’t going to scare anyone, and Ioway also benefited from your defense scoring points which gave Ioway a higher average per game.
Your offense wasn’t the second best in the Big10, 7 teams averaged more yards than Ioway..
iowa will win nothing, just like every other year in history.

this thread belongs in the trash.
 

scarletred

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Top Gun I see a few other threads on the board now that need to be thrown in the trash.Winking
 

headcard

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No, you want to let up the least amount of points possible.

No, you want to win football games. And simply looking at points allowed is a lazy and stupid way to judge a defense. Is this concept really too difficult for you to understand?
 
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donahues17

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Problem with Iowa QBs when they are younger is that KKKirk doesnt blow teams out and put jis backup in for a quarter or more to get some good reps. The backups usually get a series maybe 2 in mop up duty. Then when its their time to start, they struggle for a year or 2 with that qb. Rinse and repeat.
 

SWIowahawks

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Problem with Iowa QBs when they are younger is that KKKirk doesnt blow teams out and put jis backup in for a quarter or more to get some good reps. The backups usually get a series maybe 2 in mop up duty. Then when its their time to start, they struggle for a year or 2 with that qb. Rinse and repeat.
Wait, what? Beathard’s first year as a starter he went 12-2. Stanley went 8-5 and Petras went 6-2 after starting 0-2. I’m still mad at Kirk for playing Stanley a small handful of snaps his freshman year and burning his redshirt. He should have been a senior last year.
 
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