Every year we hear of this team or that team is always hyped up preseason and every year they under perform. So I dug into it to find out. Nothing to scientific. I simply took the the preseason AP ranking and compared it to the final AP rankings. If a team started or ended un ranked I assigned a 30 just for simplicity.
So essentially how many spots different the AP preseason was from the AP final rankings. So if pre season team A was ranked 3rd, and final ranking they were 20th that would be a - 17 difference or under performing. A 0 indicates right on or even comparing pre to final. A positive mean over performed.
What stuck out to me that when comparing preseason to final ranking over the course of 10 years it ends up being very very accurate.
10 year average from over performing/ under hyped to under performing/ over hyped
Baylor 3.8
Northwester 3.4
Missouri 3.2
Utah 2.7
Miss St 2.4
Clemson 2.4
Okla St 2.4
MN 2
Kentucky 1.8
K St 1.7
Colorado 1.3
Vanderbilt 1.3
Penn St .9
Syracuse .7
Maryland. 7
Duke .7
AZ .3
Virginia 0
Pitt 0
Boston College 0
Rutgers 0
Purdue 0
Mich St 0
Indiana 0
Illinois 0
Texas Tech 0
Kansas 0
Cal 0
Stanford 0
AZ st -.1
Iowa -.3
Louisville -.4
Notre Dame -.4
TCU -.4
LSU -.6
Wisc - .6
Georgia Tech -.6
Wake Forest -.7
Wash St -.7
South Car -.7
Ohio St -.8
Iowa St -.9
Texas AM -1
Oregon St -1.1
Ole Miss -1.1
Oregon -1.3
North Car -1.3
FL -1.4
West Virg -1.6
Arkansas -1.7
Alabama -2.1
Washington -2.2
Tennessee -2.2
Oklahoma -2.5
Miami -2.4
V Tech -2.7
UCLA -2.9
Mich -3
Texas -5.2
Georgia -5.3
USC -5.4
FL St -5.7
Neb -6
So essentially how many spots different the AP preseason was from the AP final rankings. So if pre season team A was ranked 3rd, and final ranking they were 20th that would be a - 17 difference or under performing. A 0 indicates right on or even comparing pre to final. A positive mean over performed.
What stuck out to me that when comparing preseason to final ranking over the course of 10 years it ends up being very very accurate.
10 year average from over performing/ under hyped to under performing/ over hyped
Baylor 3.8
Northwester 3.4
Missouri 3.2
Utah 2.7
Miss St 2.4
Clemson 2.4
Okla St 2.4
MN 2
Kentucky 1.8
K St 1.7
Colorado 1.3
Vanderbilt 1.3
Penn St .9
Syracuse .7
Maryland. 7
Duke .7
AZ .3
Virginia 0
Pitt 0
Boston College 0
Rutgers 0
Purdue 0
Mich St 0
Indiana 0
Illinois 0
Texas Tech 0
Kansas 0
Cal 0
Stanford 0
AZ st -.1
Iowa -.3
Louisville -.4
Notre Dame -.4
TCU -.4
LSU -.6
Wisc - .6
Georgia Tech -.6
Wake Forest -.7
Wash St -.7
South Car -.7
Ohio St -.8
Iowa St -.9
Texas AM -1
Oregon St -1.1
Ole Miss -1.1
Oregon -1.3
North Car -1.3
FL -1.4
West Virg -1.6
Arkansas -1.7
Alabama -2.1
Washington -2.2
Tennessee -2.2
Oklahoma -2.5
Miami -2.4
V Tech -2.7
UCLA -2.9
Mich -3
Texas -5.2
Georgia -5.3
USC -5.4
FL St -5.7
Neb -6