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Iowa +10.5 vs Michigan

I don’t think Iowa wins but what does this have to do with the game tomorrow night? Iowa has played four East teams with winning records in your span. The three losses were by one score with two being on the road. (They really should have won in PSU in 2018). But I think anything before this season has as much to do with tomorrow night as Iowa taking OSU to the woodshed in 2017. Zero.
I predicted 30-3 based on watching Iowa this year.
 
I wonder what Iowa's record would have been if they had played our schedule this year.
Probably about the same. Iowa wins close games. That is who they are. They put enough pressure on teams with defense and special teams that their offense can suck, but when that momentum comes their offense comes around just enough to put the points on the board and kill the other teams dreams after their D or ST make a play. Hopefully with this new coaching blood comes a better team mentally. I think if we could get mentally right that alone wins us probably 3-4 more games this year.
 
Probably about the same. Iowa wins close games. That is who they are. They put enough pressure on teams with defense and special teams that their offense can suck, but when that momentum comes their offense comes around just enough to put the points on the board and kill the other teams dreams after their D or ST make a play. Hopefully with this new coaching blood comes a better team mentally. I think if we could get mentally right that alone wins us probably 3-4 more games this year.
Iowa wins at Oklahoma? MSU? At home versus Michigan and Ohio State? We already know they lost at home to Purdue and at Wisconsin, so you're saying they would have won all four of those games? Three of them? Even two?

"Probably about the same" assumes they would go 4-0 or at least 3-1 against those four top 12 teams, with two games on the road.

It also assumes they would have beaten both Illinois and Minnesota in road games instead of at Kinnick Stadium.

I say 6-6 at best, headed for the Pinstripe Bowl or no bowl at all.
 
Iowa wins at Oklahoma? MSU? At home versus Michigan and Ohio State? We already know they lost at home to Purdue and at Wisconsin, so you're saying they would have won all four of those games? Three of them? Even two?

"Probably about the same" assumes they would go 4-0 or at least 3-1 against those four top 12 teams, with two games on the road.

It also assumes they would have beaten both Illinois and Minnesota in road games instead of at Kinnick Stadium.

I say 6-6 at best, headed for the Pinstripe Bowl or no bowl at all.
Eh.. I don't think they beat Ohio State or Michigan during the season, but I think they do probably beat MSU and Oklahoma. Maybe 8-4 instead of 10-2, but like I said, they have the ability to win close games. That is Iowa's MO.
 
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Eh.. I don't think they beat Ohio State or Michigan during the season, but I think they do probably beat MSU and Oklahoma. Maybe 8-4 instead of 10-2, but like I said, they have the ability to win close games. That is Iowa's MO.
That makes sense. I'm not sure they could have kept up with MSU or scored much on Oklahoma, but those would have been tight games for sure.

I think the best thing about Iowa winning the division title this year is the sense that they really don't need to fix their offense beyond improving their OL play, even if Linderbaum goes pro. Iowa returns a lot, but they remove PSU, Maryland and Indiana — the 4th, 5th and 7th East teams — with Michigan, Ohio State and Rutgers — the 1st, 2nd and 6th teams. That's 1-2 at best in crossovers, and given Iowa's history of going 4-2 against the West Division, that's not a recipe for repeating as division champs.

Purdue actually has the easiest crossover schedule next year — PSU, Maryland and Indiana, the same as Iowa this year — so I'd make Purdue my preseason favorite, followed by Wisconsin and Iowa. As we saw this year, you can go 4-2 in the West and even 1-2 against the other contenders in the West and still win the division if there's enough parity in the West and you get a breezy crossover schedule.
 
That makes sense. I'm not sure they could have kept up with MSU or scored much on Oklahoma, but those would have been tight games for sure.

I think the best thing about Iowa winning the division title this year is the sense that they really don't need to fix their offense beyond improving their OL play, even if Linderbaum goes pro. Iowa returns a lot, but they remove PSU, Maryland and Indiana — the 4th, 5th and 7th East teams — with Michigan, Ohio State and Rutgers — the 1st, 2nd and 6th teams. That's 1-2 at best in crossovers, and given Iowa's history of going 4-2 against the West Division, that's not a recipe for repeating as division champs.

Purdue actually has the easiest crossover schedule next year — PSU, Maryland and Indiana, the same as Iowa this year — so I'd make Purdue my preseason favorite, followed by Wisconsin and Iowa. As we saw this year, you can go 4-2 in the West and even 1-2 against the other contenders in the West and still win the division if there's enough parity in the West and you get a breezy crossover schedule.
Yeah I agree. Looking back it just pisses me off because we literally were in it with everyone despite our tough schedule. I agree with your assessment and if we win games early, I really think we can win our division. Need to shore up the OL, DL and special teams and I think we have a shot.
 
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Yeah I agree. Looking back it just pisses me off because we literally were in it with everyone despite our tough schedule. I agree with your assessment and if we win games early, I really think we can win our division. Need to shore up the OL, DL and special teams and I think we have a shot.
It seems crazy on the surface to think a 1-8 team (conference record) could contend for the division next year, especially given the head coach's deficiencies in his first four years at the helm. But it's not crazy with just a little improvement:
  • Go 2-1 against the East: beat Indiana and Rutgers, lose to Michigan
  • Go 2-1 in road/neutral games against the West: beat NW and either Purdue or Iowa (neither would require a huge leap of faith or improvement)
    • Assumes Purdue game site is moved from Lincoln to West of Lafayette
  • Go 2-1 in homes against the West: Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota.
    • Assumes Wisconsin game site is moved to Lincoln
"We have met the enemy, and he is us."

Can we get out of our own way? That's why this round of hires can mean the difference between 8-4 and 4-8.
 
Probably about the same. Iowa wins close games. That is who they are. They put enough pressure on teams with defense and special teams that their offense can suck, but when that momentum comes their offense comes around just enough to put the points on the board and kill the other teams dreams after their D or ST make a play. Hopefully with this new coaching blood comes a better team mentally. I think if we could get mentally right that alone wins us probably 3-4 more games this year.
They would had two to three more losses with our schedule.
 
Iowa wins at Oklahoma? MSU? At home versus Michigan and Ohio State? We already know they lost at home to Purdue and at Wisconsin, so you're saying they would have won all four of those games? Three of them? Even two?

"Probably about the same" assumes they would go 4-0 or at least 3-1 against those four top 12 teams, with two games on the road.

It also assumes they would have beaten both Illinois and Minnesota in road games instead of at Kinnick Stadium.

I say 6-6 at best, headed for the Pinstripe Bowl or no bowl at all.
Don’t forget that Iowa was getting walloped at home by PSU right up until PSU lost Clifford. The backup was pitiful.
 
Bottom line was we were 3-9, and Iowa is 10-3 and headed to play in a bowl game.

But it's fascinating statistic that Nebraska lost its nine games by a total of 56 points, while Iowa lost its three games by a total of 76 points. That's practically Pelini-esque, whereas Frost is proving to be a modern-day Bill Jennings, only without the upsets.
 
When is the last time Iowa's defense/offense/special teams gave up 28 points, let alone 31 points. It is possible, but either teams scoring 25 points or more?

Are you putting money on 25 points by Michigan?

I think the Under plays out, Iowa may pull out the win. Is it 44 points?

Last win, Hawkeyes were +21 point favorites against the #2 Michigan (9-0) team in 2016. Hawkeyes won on a walk-off FG basically. Not uncommon, since 2015, the last time Iowa was in the Big Ten Championship Game.

If the points are over 44, the odds move higher for the favored team.
  • 40 years ago, Hayden Fry hired Kirk Ferentz
  • First Rose Bowl season
  • Opened with a 10-7 win to open the 1981 season at Kinnick
  • The next year, I was in Lincoln for that one too!
  • Later that season, Iowa beat Michigan 9-7 in Ann Arbor
  • Kirk Ferentz is 7-5 in the series with Wolverines, won 5 of last 7
  • Last game, Michigan won 10-3 (2019) early in the Big Ten
Iowa will have to play a better game than the 4-0 November streak. Michigan is also 4-0, since they lost at Michigan State. Prior win for Michigan over Ohio State was 2011. Michigan finished 11-2 that season. Lost at Michigan State (who won the Legends division) and also lost to a 7-5 Iowa team, and finished 11-2 that season.

A 19-17 win by Iowa would put Michigan at 11-2 on the season. Why not!
Lmao
 
That makes sense. I'm not sure they could have kept up with MSU or scored much on Oklahoma, but those would have been tight games for sure.

I think the best thing about Iowa winning the division title this year is the sense that they really don't need to fix their offense beyond improving their OL play, even if Linderbaum goes pro. Iowa returns a lot, but they remove PSU, Maryland and Indiana — the 4th, 5th and 7th East teams — with Michigan, Ohio State and Rutgers — the 1st, 2nd and 6th teams. That's 1-2 at best in crossovers, and given Iowa's history of going 4-2 against the West Division, that's not a recipe for repeating as division champs.

I believe the fanbase knows the issues go beyond the OLine, This isn’t a one year struggle, Hopefully the man at the top decides things need to change. I really hope he watched some of the coverage from ESPN/Fox etc, Watching the Iowa offense getting ridiculed was embarrassing as a fan, I would hope it would burn the coaching staff twice as much.
 
When is the last time Iowa's defense/offense/special teams gave up 28 points, let alone 31 points. It is possible, but either teams scoring 25 points or more?

Are you putting money on 25 points by Michigan?

I think the Under plays out, Iowa may pull out the win. Is it 44 points?

Last win, Hawkeyes were +21 point favorites against the #2 Michigan (9-0) team in 2016. Hawkeyes won on a walk-off FG basically. Not uncommon, since 2015, the last time Iowa was in the Big Ten Championship Game.

If the points are over 44, the odds move higher for the favored team.
  • 40 years ago, Hayden Fry hired Kirk Ferentz
  • First Rose Bowl season
  • Opened with a 10-7 win to open the 1981 season at Kinnick
  • The next year, I was in Lincoln for that one too!
  • Later that season, Iowa beat Michigan 9-7 in Ann Arbor
  • Kirk Ferentz is 7-5 in the series with Wolverines, won 5 of last 7
  • Last game, Michigan won 10-3 (2019) early in the Big Ten
Iowa will have to play a better game than the 4-0 November streak. Michigan is also 4-0, since they lost at Michigan State. Prior win for Michigan over Ohio State was 2011. Michigan finished 11-2 that season. Lost at Michigan State (who won the Legends division) and also lost to a 7-5 Iowa team, and finished 11-2 that season.

A 19-17 win by Iowa would put Michigan at 11-2 on the season. Why not!
Hope you didn't put money on this lolol
 
No, I didn't put money down on the title game.

Did make a little money on picking Iowa to go 10-2 and 51 points for Iowa-UNL game, as a tiebreaker.

Michigan owned the line of scrimmage in that one. Congratulations to Jim Harbaugh in his renegotiated contract season.

Like with Bo, senior strong teams in Ann Arbor have found ways to win for the Wolverines.

1997 was one. How far will they go in 2021?
 
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