Always a breath of fresh air to read your thoughts.
I don't understand where you're coming from with the Trump recognized "that while Obamacare was not the answer...it would need something to replace it." He quite explicitly ran on the promise of ending Obamacare, and he and the GOP had no real alternative to replace it with ("hey, let's do more to promote HSAs"), which is why they failed. I wouldn't give him credit for being forward-thinking there, but perhaps you had something in mind that I am failing to see.
I also don't think I share your thoughts above about the middle/independents being alive and well but "moving all around the place." The way information is presented and dissected by the vast majority of people in this country now that is becoming increasingly difficult, and it seems quite evident to me that most people vote on ideological grounds first and principles second if at all. I am not exempting myself from this generalization, as much as I despise it, certainly not when we get extreme/fringe elements as elected officials (I hope you would not disagree with this characterization of Trump, at least when it comes to social policies and through un-pc rhetoric meant to embolden his base and also inflame his opposition, e.g., "China virus").
Case in point, a recent study of evangelicals showed that something like 4/5 of them thought Trump was a morally upstanding individual and honest. There is no way they came to that judgment on the basis of the evidence we have of his honesty or his moral character. If they came to that judgment on the basis of his dealings in business, those who have spoke out against him, his numerous extra marital affairs, and his self-admission of sexual assault, I could only conclude that these people are seriously deluded. Therefore, I can only assume they arrived at that judgment because he stands for other ideological beliefs they hold and hold very strongly (e.g., appointing pro-life judges). Further evidence of this was provided in the form of another statistic, which showed that while Obama was president something like 3/4 of them felt that the country was "against them," but it completely switched now. I can try to find the study if necessary.
[Edit: it now occurs to me that using another quite fringe/fairly extreme element of society as evidence of my claim that the middle is shrinking is not all that convincing, but perhaps the point stands for whatever it's worth.]
I would certainly welcome a reverse course where moderates become desirable. But my experience has been that when one team tilts so far in the other direction, I find myself tilting just as far in the opposite direction.