Has anyone thought about the following scenario?

[chicolby]

I recognize Wisconsin will be favored and likely to defeat Minnesota in their final game, but as we've seen, no one is safe from an upset. Let's say Wisconsin would happen to slip up to Minnesota.

Let's say Nebraska loses @ Iowa.

That would leave the B1G West with four teams with three conference losses. I have no idea what the tie breakers would be.

Then look at the East. If Ohio State beats Michigan, assuming Penn State doesn't slip up, they will be representing the East in the conference championship with both Ohio State and Michigan ranked higher than them.

This may be one of the crazier years I've seen in college football and we still have a few weeks left.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Heck if Minnesota beats Wisconsin, Ohio St wins out and Penn St wins out. The B1G championship game will feature a team that was beaten 49-10 and a team that was beaten 62-3.

 

[inWV]

Anyone think Mich St can pull it together and beat PSU on the road?

 

[kikdakan]

Anyone think Mich St can pull it together and beat PSU on the road?

i flipped back and forth from the PSU-IU game. two times that i flipped over, indiana fumbled the ball over to PSU. on the last fumble i saw, the announcer stated this was indiana's fourth turnover. very difficult to win a game with that many-----although, indiana still had chances. so, yes, i could see msu beating psu. no doubt, will be difficult task at psu, but, wouldn't surprise me at all if msu pulled it off.

 

[donahues17]

Great reason why they need to dwitch to where your division record decides your division champs.

 

[saluno22]

Great reason why they need to dwitch to where your division record decides your division champs.

Wholeheartedly agree and have been saying it for a while. The disparity in crossover game difficulty has a significant impact on division races. Last year when it was 7-team divisions with only 2 crossover games was awful. A little better with 3 crossovers this year, but the conference is getting too big to include the crossovers in division standings.

Obviously there's an argument to continue using crossovers in division standings as it adds more importance to crossover games, and eliminating the crossover games from the division standings would essentially turn the divisions into conferences of their own with a loose alliance with another division.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Great reason why they need to dwitch to where your division record decides your division champs.

Why? Would it really change anything? Wisconsin still in control for West and Penn St still in control of East

 

[saluno22]

Why? Would it really change anything? Wisconsin still in control for West and Penn St still in control of East

It would make fans of some teams not resent the crossover matchups they've been dealt when comparing to other teams in their division.

The problem I have right now is that the crossover matchups are essentially driven by TV ratings (albeit years in advance) rather than on a rotational basis. Here are Nebraska's crossovers since the league expanded to 14 teams and redid the divisions...

2015
(H) Michigan State
(A) Rutgers

2016
(A) Indiana
(A) Ohio State
(H) Maryland

2017
(H) Rutgers
(H) Ohio State
(A) Penn State

2018
(A) Michigan
(A) Ohio State
(H) Michigan State

2019
(H) Ohio State
(H) Indiana
(A) Maryland

That's as far as Huskers.com goes out.

Here are the amount of times we play each team...
4 - Ohio State
2 - Indiana
2 - Maryland
2 - Michigan State
2 - Rutgers
1 - Michigan
1 - Penn State

While up and down, you can argue we play teams of relative strength fairly evenly. But why not take 2 of those Ohio State games and go at it one more time with Michigan and Penn State? Just seems silly to play Ohio State 4 straight years but not play Michigan State in 2016-2019.

Got a little off topic there, but look at that 2018 crossover schedule. That's the same as Wisconsin 2016 but with H/A flipped (I know, MSU isn't that great this year). Just brutal. In a given season, having to play multiple big boys from the other division when another team in your division might get the bottom of the barrel can be more than a 1 game swing, which takes the head-to-head tiebreaker out of the equation for the division standings if you go undefeated in your division.

My lunch is over, but if I have time in the next few days, I'll take a look at the rest of the league.

 

[redwine65]

from what I seen the big wants as many big games as they can put on tv as fast as possible, and isn't worried about balance over time.

 

[chicolby]

2018 is nearly an insult. On the road vs. Ohio State and Michigan and throw in a home game vs. Michigan State (who will undoubtedly be better again) and that is basically hoping to finish 1-2 against that slate. Of course, if Nebraska was Nebraska of the mid-90s, we'd say bring it on, but Nebraska is far removed from that level of athlete and dominance.

The sad thing is that would be a year when I think a lot of people will be hoping/expecting big things from the Riley years. It will have a QB who likely has played in 2017 to be broken in, he will have more of his players on the roster, but asking anyone to come away with a successful result is nearly unreasonable.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

If you take one of these scenarios a step further, what happens if we win out, play and we beat PSU?

i highly, highly doubt that a 2-loss b1g champ gets left out... OSU gets in with 1 loss...

bama
OSU
clemson/louisville (whoever wins the conference, or if neither does whichever has 1 loss... if neither does then neither but regardless.)
2-loss b1g champ... who happens to at this point be one of us, PSU, or Wisconsin.

it's not -- at all -- a stretch. washington has a significantly weaker schedule and they might lose to wazzu yet (and wazzu is NOT making the playoff). SEC has got nobody. ACC already mentioned and if they pick champions get major weight. Big 12 gets left o ut because OSU pasted OU on the road and West Virginia is unlikely as-is (still think OU beats them).

Doesn't take much, only really a wisconsin loss and possibly an 'upset' of wazzu over washington (not a stretch), and one or both of clemson/louisville losing a game.

There's other possibilities but i don't see really ANY way the b1g champ gets left out of the playoff. best conference by far this year.

 

[chicolby]

If you take one of these scenarios a step further, what happens if we win out, play and we beat PSU?

i highly, highly doubt that a 2-loss b1g champ gets left out... OSU gets in with 1 loss...

bama
OSU
clemson/louisville (whoever wins the conference, or if neither does whichever has 1 loss... if neither does then neither but regardless.)
2-loss b1g champ... who happens to at this point be one of us, PSU, or Wisconsin.

it's not -- at all -- a stretch. washington has a significantly weaker schedule and they might lose to wazzu yet (and wazzu is NOT making the playoff). SEC has got nobody. ACC already mentioned and if they pick champions get major weight. Big 12 gets left o ut because OSU pasted OU on the road and West Virginia is unlikely as-is (still think OU beats them).

Doesn't take much, only really a wisconsin loss and possibly an 'upset' of wazzu over washington (not a stretch), and one or both of clemson/louisville losing a game.

There's other possibilities but i don't see really ANY way the b1g champ gets left out of the playoff. best conference by far this year.

I see nearly every scenario where the B1G champ gets left out if Ohio State is not playing in the championship game. I don't see Penn State or Nebraska getting in. I see an outside chance of Wisconsin, assuming they win convincingly and some of the other losses occur as you mentioned. Penn State at least has a win over Ohio State on their resume, but Nebraska simply doesn't have a marquee win on its resume and has zero percent chance of making a playoff even if they should win the B1G Championship.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

I see nearly every scenario where the B1G champ gets left out if Ohio State is not playing in the championship game. I don't see Penn State or Nebraska getting in. I see an outside chance of Wisconsin, assuming they win convincingly and some of the other losses occur as you mentioned. Penn State at least has a win over Ohio State on their resume, but Nebraska simply doesn't have a marquee win on its resume and has zero percent chance of making a playoff even if they should win the B1G Championship.

they don't just take the top 4 in the rankings outright... championships matter now... or at least that's what they keep saying lol... in that scenario if we won the b1g we'd probably be ranked about 6-7 afterwards... ish. several of the teams in front of us aren't done losing.

the b1g has been by far and away the best conference this year. leaving out the champion would create a long-term farce.

truth is i think a scenario like i posited would create the push for 8 teams in the playoff (finally). sooner or later they'd jump that to 16 which IMO was the way it should be (champions of all conferences and a few other teams).

 

[Kleitusbpn]

I should also add here that i would rather see wisconsin in that position against bama than us...

wisky would PUNISH bama... it would be similar to them playing LSU then having to come back and play... say... ohio state the next week.

don't get me wrong, i'd LOVE to see us in a playoff... either next year or the year after. i don't have any desire to see us get pasted by bama.

i'd like to see us play someone we can beat on new years day.

 

[timnsun]

I should also add here that i would rather see wisconsin in that position against bama than us...

wisky would PUNISH bama... it would be similar to them playing LSU then having to come back and play... say... ohio state the next week.

don't get me wrong, i'd LOVE to see us in a playoff... either next year or the year after. i don't have any desire to see us get pasted by bama.

i'd like to see us play someone we can beat on new years day.

Just curious, what have you seen out of Bama to think Wisconsin would punish them? All Bama has done is blow teams out this year, no matter where you are ranked, save for one team really... I know it could be that the SEC is inflated, but I don't know...

 

[Kleitusbpn]

Just curious, what have you seen out of Bama to think Wisconsin would punish them? All Bama has done is blow teams out this year, no matter where you are ranked, save for one team really... I know it could be that the SEC is inflated, but I don't know...

Go watch the bama/lsu game (10-0, hardly a blowout)
go watch the lsu/wisky game (16-13)
go watch osu/wisky (30-23)
go watch nu/wisky (23-17)

Wisky punishes you physically front to back on both sides of the ball. i honestly think 3/4 of the reason we got blown out against OSU is that it was the week after the wisconsin game.

the lsu/alabama game is annually the most physical in the sec. if wisconsin played against alabama it would be very similar if not a slight notch higher. nothing but punishment and the winner would be more of a survivor than a winner.

i'm pretty much a 'bama lose at all costs' guy. osu would be licking their chops if they were in the other game and knew wisconsin was going to soften up alabama (and trust me, they would).

 

[chicolby]

Bama is the best team in the country. Period. And it doesn't take Einstein to figure that one out. No one is punishing Bama. But... even the best teams in the country have a couple turnovers, maybe deal with an injury and are beatable. I think probably Ohio State or Louisville are the best candidates to put a scare into Bama based on their mobile QBs and team speed. But they would both be underdogs in this hypothetical matchup.

Wisconsin would be a 15 point underdog while I think Ohio State would be maybe a 7 point underdog.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

Wisconsin would physically punish anybody in the country and have -- all year. it is just how they play

I already said I doubt they'd win. you're missreading the meaning of the word punish.

 

[LeftyLarry]

Nobody plays well the game after Wisconsin.
OSU barely beat NW at home after playing us.

 

[Suvey101885]

How crazy would it be if it was a Nebraska - Penn State BIG Championship match up?

 

[cidsports]

Why? Would it really change anything? Wisconsin still in control for West and Penn St still in control of East

Michigan controls own destiny if they win out. Penn State is next, but needs help from either IU or OSU, at this point. OSU needs to win out and needs help with PSU falling out of a tie.

They are each 6-1 in the East.

 

[cidsports]

It would make fans of some teams not resent the crossover matchups they've been dealt when comparing to other teams in their division.

The problem I have right now is that the crossover matchups are essentially driven by TV ratings (albeit years in advance) rather than on a rotational basis. Here are Nebraska's crossovers since the league expanded to 14 teams and redid the divisions...

2015
(H) Michigan State
(A) Rutgers

2016
(A) Indiana
(A) Ohio State
(H) Maryland

2017
(H) Rutgers
(H) Ohio State
(A) Penn State

2018
(A) Michigan
(A) Ohio State
(H) Michigan State

2019
(H) Ohio State
(H) Indiana
(A) Maryland

That's as far as Huskers.com goes out.

Here are the amount of times we play each team...
4 - Ohio State
2 - Indiana
2 - Maryland
2 - Michigan State
2 - Rutgers
1 - Michigan
1 - Penn State

While up and down, you can argue we play teams of relative strength fairly evenly. But why not take 2 of those Ohio State games and go at it one more time with Michigan and Penn State? Just seems silly to play Ohio State 4 straight years but not play Michigan State in 2016-2019.

Got a little off topic there, but look at that 2018 crossover schedule. That's the same as Wisconsin 2016 but with H/A flipped (I know, MSU isn't that great this year). Just brutal. In a given season, having to play multiple big boys from the other division when another team in your division might get the bottom of the barrel can be more than a 1 game swing, which takes the head-to-head tiebreaker out of the equation for the division standings if you go undefeated in your division.

My lunch is over, but if I have time in the next few days, I'll take a look at the rest of the league.

Nebraska vs. Ohio State
Wisconsin vs. Michigan
Iowa vs. Penn State
Northwestern vs. Michigan State (I believe)

They have common cross-overs for first 4 years of nine game schedule in B1G.

I believe Purdue gets Indiana, as they did before.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Michigan controls own destiny if they win out. Penn State is next, but needs help from either IU or OSU, at this point. OSU needs to win out and needs help with PSU falling out of a tie.

They are each 6-1 in the East.

Correct, I misspoke. From a statistical standpoint Penn St has a high probability of winning out. Michigan, with a back up QB, on the road against Ohio St, has a significantly lower probability of winning out.

The point is the cross divisional games didn't effect who will win the divisions or the league.

 

[timnsun]

FIFY

Now I FIFY...

 

[St_Henry_Buckeye]

How crazy would it be if it was a Nebraska - Penn State BIG Championship match up?

That would be great. they would both miss the playoffs.

 

[huskerbaseball13]

How crazy would it be if it was a Nebraska - Penn State BIG Championship match up?

Would be great. But I don't think Wisconsin is losing a game down the stretch and I'm not sure we beat Iowa in Iowa City. Would be awesome though

 

[jay-cheese]

Agree that Wisc is not likely to lose. Can we "PASS" on the conference title game if we were to luck into it? We're pretty banged up...personally I'd like to see us win the next two and then get healed up before playing in nice bowl game. That'd be a pretty great season overall.

GBR

 

[mwulf]

Wisconsin wouldnt score vs Bama and their game would resemble Michigan St from last years playoff

 

[Cornicator]

Wisconsin wouldnt score vs Bama and their game would resemble Michigan St from last years playoff

No it wouldn't.

Keep in mind Nebraska put up 500 yards on that Michigan State team last year. Their defense was not elite. Wisconsin has an elite defense in 2016. That would keep them competitive. However, it would still be like a 24- 7 game though.

 

[mwulf]

http://a1.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2016/1022/r143746_1296x729_16-9.jpg