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Good Article about (lack of) Competitive Balance in CFB

Steve Spurrier sums up the current situation:
“In the NFL, the team that wins the Super Bowl gets the last pick in the first round and the last pick in the second round, so they try to help the bad teams,” said Steve Spurrier, the former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and coach at Florida who’s now an athletic department ambassador.

“In college football, Alabama gets the first 10 picks in the first round, the first 10 picks in the second round and then about the first five in the third round. And then they say, ‘Alright, the rest of you guys, y’all can get the rest of them.’ And then Clemson gets a bunch of them, and then Ohio State and so forth.”
 
The iron grip of a few programs on the College Football Playoff is so strong that this season, it even survived a modern-day plague.

Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and that plucky No. 4 seed, Notre Dame, withstood coronavirus-ravaged 2020 and emerged again atop the sport. Alabama-Notre Dame and Clemson-Ohio State will face off in the semifinals on New Year’s Day.

If the teams sound familiar, it’s no wonder. Notre Dame has made the playoff twice since the format’s 2014-15 launch. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma, which finished sixth in this year’s rankings, have grabbed 20 of the playoff’s 28 all-time slots.
Money explains a lot. Recent years have brought ballooning TV-rights deals, worth billions annually, mostly to the so-called Power 5 conferences that generate the most revenue and win all the titles. Wealth is only part of the reason, however, why the playoff has become the most exclusive club in sports.

Top coaches have stayed with their teams or groomed worthy successors, providing a pivotal edge in program and player development. In the playoff era, nonplayoff bowls have receded in the national conversation. Perhaps most important, the playoff has strengthened a recruiting feedback loop, keeping talent flowing to the programs that are already winning.
Teams Rich in Players Get Richer
The New England Patriots dominated the NFL in recent years. The Golden State Warriors have won more than their share of NBA titles. But those leagues have 32 and 30 teams, respectively. Major-college football has 130.
Perpetual-Talent Machine

Teams that frequent the College Football Playoff dominate recruiting rankings

2021 Recruiting class ranking
CFP appearances
Champion
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Alabama
Ohio State
Georgia
LSU
Clemson
Oregon
Texas A&M
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Florida
Schools with playoff appearances but not in top 10 of recruiting rankings
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
22.
32.
40.
Florida State
Washington
Michigan State
Sources: 247Sports (composite rankings, Dec. 21); College Football Playoff (years)
Only 11 college programs can tell recruits they’ve reached the playoff. Only four teams can say they’ve won it all. That appears to be creating a novel recruiting advantage.
“In the NFL, the team that wins the Super Bowl gets the last pick in the first round and the last pick in the second round, so they try to help the bad teams,” said Steve Spurrier, the former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and coach at Florida who’s now an athletic department ambassador.
“In college football, Alabama gets the first 10 picks in the first round, the first 10 picks in the second round and then about the first five in the third round. And then they say, ‘Alright, the rest of you guys, y’all can get the rest of them.’ And then Clemson gets a bunch of them, and then Ohio State and so forth.”
Spurrier’s 1996 Florida team holds a distinction some find worrisome: It was the last first-time national champion. Each title winner since already had a championship. That streak will continue this season.
CFP executive director Bill Hancock said the sport’s top teams are merely in a cycle of strength that’s been seen before—with Army in the 1940s, Oklahoma in the 1950s, and later with Nebraska and Florida State.
The Postseason Marquee Is Shrinking

Justin Fields and Ohio State played Clemson in last season's College Football Playoff Semifinal.

PHOTO: NORM HALL/GETTY IMAGES
College football’s championship game is as popular as ever. Last year’s title game drew 26 million TV viewers, same as the championship the year before the playoff was launched.
Yet nonplayoff bowl games have lost luster.
A 1984 Supreme Court decision paved the way for bloat. The court ruled the NCAA could no longer limit the number of college football games on TV. Athletic conferences took control, and the number of televised games and bowl games exploded.
In the early 1990s, an alliance of top conferences began morphing one bowl matchup each year into a national championship game. The effort culminated in the Bowl Championship Series, which eventually included the title game plus four other bowls—five heavily promoted events that gave 10 teams bragging rights.
Fans decried the BCS’s baroque selection formula of computer rankings and human polls, but their viewing habits suggested they loved it.
In 2013-14, the last year of the BCS, the non-championship Sugar, Orange and Fiesta Bowls combined to draw an audience of nearly 39 million, according to the website Sports Media Watch. Last year three College Football Playoff secondary games, the Sugar, Orange and Cotton Bowls, combined for 22.5 million viewers.

Although the CFP promotes its games as the New Year’s Six, the four non-semifinal bowls have begun to recede into the background.
“An unintended consequence of the playoff is that the amount of attention has been spread not as widely as it once was, and more of the attention has been spread to those teams that are in the playoff hunt,” said Greg McElroy, an ESPN analyst and former Alabama quarterback. That heightened attention, McElroy said, “creates a natural advantage for those teams on the recruiting trail.”
Hancock said “viewership for postseason college football continues to be strong.”
Top Coaches Get Paid and Stay
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and Alabama coach Nick Saban pose with the Sugar Bowl trophy in 2017.

PHOTO: GERALD HERBERT/ASSOCIATED PRESS
The coaches of perennial playoff teams aren’t just good, they’re Hall-of-Fame-level elite. Nick Saban at Alabama; Dabo Swinney at Clemson; Bob Stoops then Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma; and Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer and Ryan Day at Ohio State. (Brian Kelly nearly has the most victories in Notre Dame history but is still seeking a national title.)
The top coaches are better recruiters and attract and develop better quarterbacks as the position has become crucial to today’s high-scoring offenses. These coaches’ $6 million-$10 million salaries are comparable to what they would earn in the NFL.
An influx of cash from the playoff, which gave each top conference a base of about $66 million last season, helps fund those salaries. So do NCAA amateurism rules, which ban athlete compensation beyond tuition, room, board and minor expenses.
“College coaches’ salaries are what they are because you’re not paying players,” said Brian Goff, an economics professor at Western Kentucky.
Expansion and Amateurism
Clemson made the playoff despite superstar quarterback Trevor Lawrence missing two games with Covid-19.

PHOTO: JARED C. TILTON/GETTY IMAGES
Calls have increased to expand the playoff and give more programs a chance. No team outside a Power 5 conference has gotten in, and rancor surged this year when unbeaten Cincinnati finished No. 8 despite beating three ranked teams.
The CFP’s Hancock rejected the notion that lower-earning conferences have no chance, saying: “Every team is equal when the season starts.” The CFP has no imminent plans to expand, and changing the contract, now in year seven of 12, would require unanimous consent of all conferences, ESPN and the bowl games, Hancock said.
The Supreme Court is expected to rule next year in an ongoing battle over whether NCAA player-compensation limits violate antitrust laws. Allowing college athletes to profit from their name, image and likeness could help some programs gain an edge in recruiting. “It also may reinforce the existing hierarchy,” said former West Virginia athletic director Oliver Luck.
Meanwhile, the best teams are improving. Clemson made the playoff despite superstar quarterback Trevor Lawrence missing two games with Covid-19. Ohio State needed just six games, about half of its usual schedule, to win over the selection committee.
Alabama has fixed its only flaw. The Crimson Tide, which for years tolerated a below-average kicking game, has been perfect this year. Placekicker Will Reichard is 12 for 12 on field goals, and hasn’t missed an extra point.
Write to Rachel Bachman at Rachel.Bachman@wsj.com
 
Steve Spurrier sums up the current situation:
“In the NFL, the team that wins the Super Bowl gets the last pick in the first round and the last pick in the second round, so they try to help the bad teams,” said Steve Spurrier, the former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and coach at Florida who’s now an athletic department ambassador.

“In college football, Alabama gets the first 10 picks in the first round, the first 10 picks in the second round and then about the first five in the third round. And then they say, ‘Alright, the rest of you guys, y’all can get the rest of them.’ And then Clemson gets a bunch of them, and then Ohio State and so forth.”

Alabama needs a salary cap.
 
I assume there are still limits on NIL, right? Otherwise, if I am a booster of substance and business owner, I can hire all the starters to do a single billboard ad for me each year and pay them gobs, consistently enough that coaches can guarantee recruits that money if they crack the starting lineup.
 
I assume there are still limits on NIL, right? Otherwise, if I am a booster of substance and business owner, I can hire all the starters to do a single billboard ad for me each year and pay them gobs, consistently enough that coaches can guarantee recruits that money if they crack the starting lineup.

Business expenses
 
I would start a promotional company if businesses were allowed to make payments to college football players. I would have many investors. I wouldn't make a dime. I would be good with it.
 
I think NIL payments will help Nebraska compete better both against the Alabama's and the BIG WEST. Why sit on the bench at Alabama for 2 years as a 4 or 5 star when you can start and make good $ at Nebtraska.
That is not what the articles showed in the spring and summer. Projections were that the incoming frosh backup qb for Clemson would make multiples more than AM. With the chance to start after Lawrence leaves, Lawrence was projected >$1m.

Problem for NU is we are a small state, smaller P5 school with less students and a lower alumni base, lower social media following, not great tv rating except when we play OSU and we don’t win. We should pay better than Purdue, IL, schools like that but NIL is going to widen the gap between us and the big boys.

Though what the NCAA is proposing is meeting criticism from a few of the states at the forefront of this. So who knows what final form it takes.
 
That is not what the articles showed in the spring and summer. Projections were that the incoming frosh backup qb for Clemson would make multiples more than AM. With the chance to start after Lawrence leaves, Lawrence was projected >$1m.

Problem for NU is we are a small state, smaller P5 school with less students and a lower alumni base, lower social media following, not great tv rating except when we play OSU and we don’t win. We should pay better than Purdue, IL, schools like that but NIL is going to widen the gap between us and the big boys.

Though what the NCAA is proposing is meeting criticism from a few of the states at the forefront of this. So who knows what final form it takes.

I'm not sure you understand the scope or interest that Husker fans take. UNL would be top 10 if the fans have influence.
 
Nothing shocking here. but i think his premise is all wrong.

He uses the term "lack of diversity" to mean what? Lack of different teams getting into the playoffs or winning it? I don't think recruiting at Nebraska is going to all the sudden get better because we can win the conference and be an automatic birth. So, by his reasoning, MAC teams will recruit better because they have a chance an an auto birth. Regardless that those teams get slaughtered and HS players see that and then say they want to go play for a winners.

I have no clue how the money thing will work out. These kids want to play in the NFL and are going to go where they have the best path to get there. Does anyone think that is Nebraska or a Western Athletic Con, MAC, or other P5 conference team?

I said in an earlier thread that in theory there should be more talent to go around with scholarship limits. But teams still cant get enough of them which will always be the problem. That 3* qb that goes to Nebraska for the money better have some horses around him or he won't survive or be noticed by the NFL. Just get better. Not a lot of great coaches out there as well, probably that same 4 or 5.
 
Steve Spurrier sums up the current situation:
“In the NFL, the team that wins the Super Bowl gets the last pick in the first round and the last pick in the second round, so they try to help the bad teams,” said Steve Spurrier, the former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and coach at Florida who’s now an athletic department ambassador.

“In college football, Alabama gets the first 10 picks in the first round, the first 10 picks in the second round and then about the first five in the third round. And then they say, ‘Alright, the rest of you guys, y’all can get the rest of them.’ And then Clemson gets a bunch of them, and then Ohio State and so forth.”
I still love cfb, but it definitely has taken some of the fun out of it when the same handful of teams are locks for the playoffs every year. At least expand the playoffs.
 
I still love cfb, but it definitely has taken some of the fun out of it when the same handful of teams are locks for the playoffs every year. At least expand the playoffs.

I'm sure someone else said the same thing when Nebraska was butt stomping everyone And yes, expand to an 8-team playoff. That's 5 P5 champions and 3 at large bids.
 
I'm sure someone else said the same thing when Nebraska was butt stomping everyone And yes, expand to an 8-team playoff. That's 5 P5 champions and 3 at large bids.
Oh of course I’d think differently if we were what we used to be.
 
I read a article recently about Clemson and how they basically sucked but since they were a private university they could do things with money that only the sec is willing to do the same thing the article never came out and said Clemson was paying players but it didn’t take a mit grad to read between the line
 
I read a article recently about Clemson and how they basically sucked but since they were a private university they could do things with money that only the sec is willing to do the same thing the article never came out and said Clemson was paying players but it didn’t take a mit grad to read between the line

Clemson is a public, land-grant university...

 
College football has always been the same. 1 or 2 dominant teams... then there's everyone else. Did people think clamoring for a 4 team playoff would change that? I'd advise just to enjoy what we have. I love watching great teams like Alabama and Clemson play great football. Alabama will drop off once Saban retires. If Swinney loses a few key assistants, Clemson will probably drop off a bit too.
 
i know there are various opinions on this but i think paying players for NIL will make it even more lopsided. the top 6 will stay the same but where there is currently competitiveness from #10 to #60 there will be another large chasm between #10-20 and #30-120 in the future. right now there is really just 2 tiers. The elite at the very top and everyone else. in the future there will be at least 3 tiers. the lowest tier will be the largest and very far behind the upper 2. after 10 yrs of this it would make sense to branch off the lower half because they wont be able to compete at all.
 
This is an idea originally floated by former Northwestern football player Rick Telander in his book "The Hundred-Yard Lie":

Blow up the whole student-athlete thing, turn "college" football into a minor league for the NFL. NFL teams pay universities a massive licensing and lease package to use the name and the facilities. Players get a salary and a voucher for a free education at the institution when they're done playing football. Hell, they could even start attending class during their time playing on campus if they'd like.

You'd have a team in Lincoln, Nebraska called the "Nebraska Cornhuskers," and it would be stocked with players drafted out of high school much like MLB does. Whether the team is tied to a specific franchise is something to be figured out, as would who gets how much of the television money, bowl revenues, etc. The 65 teams that comprise the current Power 5 conferences would be in a top tier, followed by the other 65 FBS teams in a second tier. If a player isn't drafted into those leagues, he is free to pursue an education and an athletic career at college-sponsored universities, those currently in the FCS, Division II and Division III — currently the levels at which the NCAA sponsors official football championships.

An interesting side to this is the 85 scholarships for men that would free up to begin or re-establish other possible revenue-generating men's sports at every Division I university, such as ice hockey, soccer, wrestling, gymnastics, swimming and diving, etc.

The economics of the plan would require serious negotiation to make sure the universities' athletics departments are made whole and that the NFL sees a return on its investment, but so much money is being made by both, it's hard to imagine it couldn't be figured out.

Competitive balance would definitely be restored, giving Wake Forest and Kansas the same opportunity to win a championship as Alabama and Clemson.
 
We act like dominance hasn't been like this in CFB forever...Notre Dame, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Miami, USC, Alabama. This has happened for a long time. I will say again though - the 4 team CFB playoff IS A TERRIBLE IDEA because no one cares about bowl games anymore. It's Playoffs or bust. I don't like the idea of 8 or 16 team playoff but they almost have to now.
 
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Think if CBB was as lame with their playoff as CFB is...Think if they just had a playoff with the 4 top teams each year.

It would be KU, Duke, Gonzaga, Nova, UNC, Kentucky and MSU...pretty much every year, it would be some combo of those teams. It would be lame too.

Take all the P5 conference, make them split into two divisions, each division winner goes to the playoffs.

Two teams each from the Big Ten, PAC 12, SEC, ACC and Big 12. That is 10 teams...then auto bid 6 more for a 16 team playoff each year.

Everyone has an erection, everyone enjoys it, it would be a freaking blast.
 
This is an idea originally floated by former Northwestern football player Rick Telander in his book "The Hundred-Yard Lie":

Blow up the whole student-athlete thing, turn "college" football into a minor league for the NFL. NFL teams pay universities a massive licensing and lease package to use the name and the facilities. Players get a salary and a voucher for a free education at the institution when they're done playing football. Hell, they could even start attending class during their time playing on campus if they'd like.

You'd have a team in Lincoln, Nebraska called the "Nebraska Cornhuskers," and it would be stocked with players drafted out of high school much like MLB does. Whether the team is tied to a specific franchise is something to be figured out, as would who gets how much of the television money, bowl revenues, etc. The 65 teams that comprise the current Power 5 conferences would be in a top tier, followed by the other 65 FBS teams in a second tier. If a player isn't drafted into those leagues, he is free to pursue an education and an athletic career at college-sponsored universities, those currently in the FCS, Division II and Division III — currently the levels at which the NCAA sponsors official football championships.

An interesting side to this is the 85 scholarships for men that would free up to begin or re-establish other possible revenue-generating men's sports at every Division I university, such as ice hockey, soccer, wrestling, gymnastics, swimming and diving, etc.

The economics of the plan would require serious negotiation to make sure the universities' athletics departments are made whole and that the NFL sees a return on its investment, but so much money is being made by both, it's hard to imagine it couldn't be figured out.

Competitive balance would definitely be restored, giving Wake Forest and Kansas the same opportunity to win a championship as Alabama and Clemson.

That idea freaking blows!! I know it isn't yours....but it blows
 
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Think if CBB was as lame with their playoff as CFB is...Think if they just had a playoff with the 4 top teams each year.

It would be KU, Duke, Gonzaga, Nova, UNC, Kentucky and MSU...pretty much every year, it would be some combo of those teams. It would be lame too.

Take all the P5 conference, make them split into two divisions, each division winner goes to the playoffs.

Two teams each from the Big Ten, PAC 12, SEC, ACC and Big 12. That is 10 teams...then auto bid 6 more for a 16 team playoff each year.

Everyone has an erection, everyone enjoys it, it would be a freaking blast.
That's the way basketball used to be until the tournament started expanding in the 1980s.

Believe it or not, between 1966 and 1984 (19 seasons), Nebraska had just two losing conference seasons, but never made the NCAA tournament because for a long time, the tournament took only the conference champion, and in the Big Eight, that was Kansas. Every. F***ing. Year. Even the NIT took only runners-up for a while, leaving Nebraska at home despite finishing third seven times and fourth six times over that 19-season span.

If the basketball tournament had been more inclusive back then, Nebraska likely never would have made it past the Sweet Sixteen, but we probably would be looked at a more successful program historically than we are now.
 
That idea freaking blows!! I know it isn't yours....but it blows
It won't ever happen, but it's an interesting concept worthy of discussion, especially as it relates to freeing up those scholarships for more young men to pursue a college education through sports such as hockey, soccer, gymnastics, wrestling, volleyball, etc.

Further, the NFL does nothing to develop players in the way that the NBA, NHL, MLB and MLS do. That should be a first talking point regarding football players making some money.
 
Dabo goes home and it keeps rolling with a slight decline.
And that might happen, so then Clemson falls back a bit.

OSU was not what they were (as good) until sweater vest and then Urbs.
Bama, people seem to forget, kind of sucked after Stallings retired.
Clemson just got awesome in the past 7 years (or so) and look what it took, two amazing QB's in Watson and now the dude with the hair.

ND, people seem to think is always in the top 4, but that just isn't the case.
 
And that might happen, so then Clemson falls back a bit.

OSU was not what they were (as good) until sweater vest and then Urbs.
Bama, people seem to forget, kind of sucked after Stallings retired.
Clemson just got awesome in the past 7 years (or so) and look what it took, two amazing QB's in Watson and now the dude with the hair.

ND, people seem to think is always in the top 4, but that just isn't the case.

I hear you. Its all about coaching , period. Location, population base, etc definitely help, but teams that win have coaching. When programs lack good coaching they lose no matter who they are.
 
It won't ever happen, but it's an interesting concept worthy of discussion, especially as it relates to freeing up those scholarships for more young men to pursue a college education through sports such as hockey, soccer, gymnastics, wrestling, volleyball, etc.

Further, the NFL does nothing to develop players in the way that the NBA, NHL, MLB and MLS do. That should be a first talking point regarding football players making some money.

I only skimmed the article but it sounded to me like in order for that dumbass idea to work kids would have to be fine going to a shit town in a shit state they otherwise wouldn't even want to drive thru, let alone commit to years of living there and playing football there. If you're a stud who grew up on one of the coasts and have options, you don't want to go to Kansas, or (insert any cold weather shitty program with no history here). Seems really unfair to me. I prefer true capitalism, where the strong survive, and the weak are homecoming opponents for the have's.
 
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I hear you. Its all about coaching , period. Location, population base, etc definitely help, but teams that win have coaching. When programs lack good coaching they lose no matter who they are.
Yep...

Look at this list, really almost none of the names stand out, not even Saban. Randy Shannon at miami probably, at the time, looked like the best hire.

 
I only skimmed the article but it sounded to me like in order for that dumbass idea to work kids would have to be fine going to a shit town in a shit state they otherwise wouldn't even want to drive thru, let alone commit to years of living there and playing football there. If you're a stud who grew up on one of the coasts and have options, you don't want to go to Kansas, or (insert any cold weather shitty program with no history here). Seems really unfair to me. I prefer true capitalism, where the strong survive, and the weak are homecoming opponents for the have's.
True, I guess, but if you're drafted by MLB, you could end up playing in Davenport and Northwest Arkansas for a few years before you get to Omaha and then maybe Kansas City. No comment on economic theories and practices in an athletic endeavor.
 
True, I guess, but if you're drafted by MLB, you could end up playing in Davenport and Northwest Arkansas for a few years before you get to Omaha and then maybe Kansas City. No comment on economic theories and practices in an athletic endeavor.

Great point, but it still feels different for football and I'm not sure why.
 
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This is an idea originally floated by former Northwestern football player Rick Telander in his book "The Hundred-Yard Lie":

Blow up the whole student-athlete thing, turn "college" football into a minor league for the NFL. NFL teams pay universities a massive licensing and lease package to use the name and the facilities. Players get a salary and a voucher for a free education at the institution when they're done playing football. Hell, they could even start attending class during their time playing on campus if they'd like.

You'd have a team in Lincoln, Nebraska called the "Nebraska Cornhuskers," and it would be stocked with players drafted out of high school much like MLB does. Whether the team is tied to a specific franchise is something to be figured out, as would who gets how much of the television money, bowl revenues, etc. The 65 teams that comprise the current Power 5 conferences would be in a top tier, followed by the other 65 FBS teams in a second tier. If a player isn't drafted into those leagues, he is free to pursue an education and an athletic career at college-sponsored universities, those currently in the FCS, Division II and Division III — currently the levels at which the NCAA sponsors official football championships.

An interesting side to this is the 85 scholarships for men that would free up to begin or re-establish other possible revenue-generating men's sports at every Division I university, such as ice hockey, soccer, wrestling, gymnastics, swimming and diving, etc.

The economics of the plan would require serious negotiation to make sure the universities' athletics departments are made whole and that the NFL sees a return on its investment, but so much money is being made by both, it's hard to imagine it couldn't be figured out.

Competitive balance would definitely be restored, giving Wake Forest and Kansas the same opportunity to win a championship as Alabama and Clemson.
No, that's one of the most retarded ideas I've ever heard.
 
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