The iron grip of a few programs on the College Football Playoff is so strong that this season, it even survived a modern-day plague.
Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and that plucky No. 4 seed, Notre Dame, withstood coronavirus-ravaged 2020 and emerged again atop the sport. Alabama-Notre Dame and Clemson-Ohio State will face off in the semifinals on New Year’s Day.
If the teams sound familiar, it’s no wonder. Notre Dame has made the playoff twice since the format’s 2014-15 launch. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma, which finished sixth in this year’s rankings, have grabbed 20 of the playoff’s 28 all-time slots.
Money explains a lot. Recent years have brought ballooning TV-rights deals, worth billions annually, mostly to the so-called Power 5 conferences that generate the most revenue and win all the titles. Wealth is only part of the reason, however, why the playoff has become the most exclusive club in sports.
Top coaches have stayed with their teams or groomed worthy successors, providing a pivotal edge in program and player development. In the playoff era, nonplayoff bowls have receded in the national conversation. Perhaps most important, the playoff has strengthened a recruiting feedback loop, keeping talent flowing to the programs that are already winning.
Teams Rich in Players Get Richer
The New England Patriots dominated the NFL in recent years. The Golden State Warriors have won more than their share of NBA titles. But those leagues have 32 and 30 teams, respectively. Major-college football has 130.
Perpetual-Talent Machine
Teams that frequent the College Football Playoff dominate recruiting rankings
2021 Recruiting class ranking
CFP appearances
Champion
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Alabama
Ohio State
Georgia
LSU
Clemson
Oregon
Texas A&M
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Florida
Schools with playoff appearances but not in top 10 of recruiting rankings
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
22.
32.
40.
Florida State
Washington
Michigan State
Sources: 247Sports (composite rankings, Dec. 21); College Football Playoff (years)
Only 11 college programs can tell recruits they’ve reached the playoff. Only four teams can say they’ve won it all. That appears to be creating a novel recruiting advantage.
“In the NFL, the team that wins the Super Bowl gets the last pick in the first round and the last pick in the second round, so they try to help the bad teams,” said Steve Spurrier, the former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and coach at Florida who’s now an athletic department ambassador.
“In college football, Alabama gets the first 10 picks in the first round, the first 10 picks in the second round and then about the first five in the third round. And then they say, ‘Alright, the rest of you guys, y’all can get the rest of them.’ And then Clemson gets a bunch of them, and then Ohio State and so forth.”
Spurrier’s 1996 Florida team holds a distinction some find worrisome: It was the last first-time national champion. Each title winner since already had a championship. That streak will continue this season.
CFP executive director Bill Hancock said the sport’s top teams are merely in a cycle of strength that’s been seen before—with Army in the 1940s, Oklahoma in the 1950s, and later with Nebraska and Florida State.
The Postseason Marquee Is Shrinking
Justin Fields and Ohio State played Clemson in last season's College Football Playoff Semifinal.
PHOTO: NORM HALL/GETTY IMAGES
College football’s championship game is as popular as ever. Last year’s title game drew 26 million TV viewers, same as the championship the year before the playoff was launched.
Yet nonplayoff bowl games have lost luster.
A 1984 Supreme Court decision paved the way for bloat. The court ruled the NCAA could no longer limit the number of college football games on TV. Athletic conferences took control, and the number of televised games and bowl games exploded.
In the early 1990s, an alliance of top conferences began morphing one bowl matchup each year into a national championship game. The effort culminated in the Bowl Championship Series, which eventually included the title game plus four other bowls—five heavily promoted events that gave 10 teams bragging rights.
Fans decried the BCS’s baroque selection formula of computer rankings and human polls, but their viewing habits suggested they loved it.
In 2013-14, the last year of the BCS, the non-championship Sugar, Orange and Fiesta Bowls combined to draw an audience of nearly 39 million, according to the website Sports Media Watch. Last year three College Football Playoff secondary games, the Sugar, Orange and Cotton Bowls, combined for 22.5 million viewers.
Although the CFP promotes its games as the New Year’s Six, the four non-semifinal bowls have begun to recede into the background.
“An unintended consequence of the playoff is that the amount of attention has been spread not as widely as it once was, and more of the attention has been spread to those teams that are in the playoff hunt,” said Greg McElroy, an ESPN analyst and former Alabama quarterback. That heightened attention, McElroy said, “creates a natural advantage for those teams on the recruiting trail.”
Hancock said “viewership for postseason college football continues to be strong.”
Top Coaches Get Paid and Stay
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and Alabama coach Nick Saban pose with the Sugar Bowl trophy in 2017.
PHOTO: GERALD HERBERT/ASSOCIATED PRESS
The coaches of perennial playoff teams aren’t just good, they’re Hall-of-Fame-level elite. Nick Saban at Alabama; Dabo Swinney at Clemson; Bob Stoops then Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma; and Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer and Ryan Day at Ohio State. (Brian Kelly
nearly has the most victories in Notre Dame history but is still seeking a national title.)
The top coaches are better recruiters and attract and develop better quarterbacks as the position has become crucial to today’s high-scoring offenses. These coaches’ $6 million-$10 million salaries are comparable to what they would earn in the NFL.
An influx of cash from the playoff, which gave each top conference
a base of about $66 million last season, helps fund those salaries. So do NCAA amateurism rules, which ban athlete compensation beyond tuition, room, board and minor expenses.
“College coaches’ salaries are what they are because you’re not paying players,” said Brian Goff, an economics professor at Western Kentucky.
Expansion and Amateurism
Clemson made the playoff despite superstar quarterback Trevor Lawrence missing two games with Covid-19.
PHOTO: JARED C. TILTON/GETTY IMAGES
Calls have increased to expand the playoff and give more programs a chance. No team outside a Power 5 conference has gotten in, and rancor surged this year when unbeaten Cincinnati finished No. 8 despite beating three ranked teams.
The CFP’s Hancock rejected the notion that lower-earning conferences have no chance, saying: “Every team is equal when the season starts.” The CFP has no imminent plans to expand, and changing the contract, now in year seven of 12, would require unanimous consent of all conferences, ESPN and the bowl games, Hancock said.
The
Supreme Court is expected to rule next year in an ongoing battle over whether NCAA player-compensation limits violate antitrust laws. Allowing college athletes to profit from their name, image and likeness could help some programs gain an edge in recruiting. “It also may reinforce the existing hierarchy,” said former West Virginia athletic director Oliver Luck.
Meanwhile, the best teams are improving. Clemson made the playoff despite superstar quarterback Trevor Lawrence missing two games with Covid-19. Ohio State needed just six games, about half of its usual schedule, to win over the selection committee.
Alabama has fixed its only flaw. The Crimson Tide, which for years tolerated
a below-average kicking game, has been perfect this year. Placekicker Will Reichard is 12 for 12 on field goals, and hasn’t missed an extra point.
Write to Rachel Bachman at
Rachel.Bachman@wsj.com