Goals vs. Expectations

[otismotis08]

So, these terms have been thrown around a lot here lately. Here's my take on how they apply to Cornhusker football.

Goals are lofty targets that are established for the football program. I usually think of these as "internal" to the program. The coaching staff and players set these at the beginning of the year. Most coaches and players (regardless of which team) will tell you the goal is to win championships. An Alabama or tOSU may reasonably set their goal to bring home the national championship. Mid-tier or lower schools may have a goal to win a conference championship. Much of it is coach-speak.

Expectations are more "external". They come from a fan base, the media, and the general football-watching public. Expectations take into consideration what is reasonable to expect from a given football program. Vegas does a pretty good job of helping to establish reasonable expectations, when it comes to winning and losing. There may be other expectations that aren't solely record-based (not quitting, representing well, improving along the way, being competitive, good sportsmanship, etc.).

When looking at Cornhusker football this year (and every year going forward), I find myself revisiting expectations. What was a reasonable outcome for the season? Did we achieve it? Are we improving? Is there hope for next year? This is essentially what is comes down to for me. I did not expect to win a championship this year, of either kind. I don't expect to win one in the next two years.

 

[jflores]

So, these terms have been thrown around a lot here lately. Here's my take on how they apply to Cornhusker football.

Goals are lofty targets that are established for the football program. I usually think of these as "internal" to the program. The coaching staff and players set these at the beginning of the year. Most coaches and players (regardless of which team) will tell you the goal is to win championships. An Alabama or tOSU may reasonably set their goal to bring home the national championship. Mid-tier or lower schools may have a goal to win a conference championship. Much of it is coach-speak.

Expectations are more "external". They come from a fan base, the media, and the general football-watching public. Expectations take into consideration what is reasonable to expect from a given football program. Vegas does a pretty good job of helping to establish reasonable expectations, when it comes to winning and losing. There may be other expectations that aren't solely record-based (not quitting, representing well, improving along the way, being competitive, good sportsmanship, etc.).

When looking at Cornhusker football this year (and every year going forward), I find myself revisiting expectations. What was a reasonable outcome for the season? Did we achieve it? Are we improving? Is there hope for next year? This is essentially what is comes down to for me. I did not expect to win a championship this year, of either kind. I don't expect to win one in the next two years.

Pretty well my thought. A lot of the butt hurt now is the fact that people can't contextualize the situation (we had 9 wins, we got a new coach, we must auto-magically win more *right away* then). So we're seeing what most folks would call a "market adjustment" as reality hits the fan base. The "market adjustment" might have been less, had Pelini been allowed to crash the plane before let go, but now he can be somewhat of a martyr to a handful of people.

The thing about this year, is so many extreme variables means a wide variety of "the possible". We have some talented players on the roster, but we don't have a lot of depth. And our schedule isn't too bad. So assuming everything went perfectly (injuries, uptake on the scheme, young players mature quickly, etc) we could have been looking at 10 or 11 wins. But it was quite apparent early that everything wasn't going to go our way, especially on the injury front. And you adjust from there. If we continue to week after week lose people to injury and so forth, the season could go pretty badly.

It should say something about the team that despite the obstacles now, we can still talk about winning the West even in a depleted state. Most teams that have this many holes and injuries and demoralization from the start out the gate, competing for a division title is a pipe dream, especially in a coaching transition year. Pretty much every school in the country, a new administration means you aren't going to be dominating anyone soon.

 

[otismotis08]

I have lowered by expectations, at least for the next couple of years.

 

[nebcountry]

There's some angst not being where we thought we be. I'm still waivering back and forth on how I think we'll do this year, and really for Riley's tenure. I think we've fit the scheme to match our players somewhat, but I don't think we've schemed around our players strengths. Marcus Mariota ran for somewhere around 700 yards last year I think, and at least in my opinion, Oregon wouldn't have been as good without Mariota running the ball. Earl Campbell, now that dude was special. Runnin' straight ahead, jersey ripped up, carrying or dragging defenders in his wake. Well, there was only one Earl Campbell. Our RB's are not going to break any NU running records without a diverse running game. But, our coaches have a plan and a direction that they want to take NU football. I will likely complain up to the point I feel like a beat dog, then I'll just lie there and take it.

I am looking at our team and coaches from a different perspective than I was prior to the BYU game.

 

[StrongArm517]

My expectations for this year were very low with a new system and a thin cupboard. Hoped for at least 1 win out of Miami/BYU but I saw more to like than expected despite the scoreboard.
Our coaches might be living in fear of a TA injury and therefore limiting his running somewhat or at least saving more of it for conference play.
As for next year however, am extremely excited. A whole year for the system, player development, scheme adjustments, emerging talent, very few key seniors, and a non con schedule that begins with fresno and wyoming, before the DUCKS come to Lincoln. Can't wait for that one. Bet coach can't either!

 

[LRob]

What is a reasonable time frame to expect Riley to win his division? To win the BIG?

As an outsider (Spartan fan) it seems like you guys have been gradually lowering expectations since entering the BIG. I understand the patience with a new coach/system but I do miss some of the bravado.

 

[timnsun]

Was is a reasonable time frame to expect Riley to win his division? To win the BIG?

As an outsider (Spartan fan) it seems like you guys have been gradually lowering expectations since entering the BIG. I understand the patience with a new coach/system but I do miss some of the bravado.

I believe a big part of the reason for the tempered expectations is we have become a "Believe it when I see it" program right now. Too many close calls that have led us to become doubting Thomases. I still have high hopes for the rest of this year, but I am done throwing big bashes for coworkers only to see us lay an egg (Did it in B1G championship game in 2012... ugh! even invited wisconsin fans...). So when we start to see tangible evidence of a return, I think you will see more Bravado. I think it will come... Just not sure it will be this year.

 

[JohnRossEwing]

Was is a reasonable time frame to expect Riley to win his division? To win the BIG?

As an outsider (Spartan fan) it seems like you guys have been gradually lowering expectations since entering the BIG. I understand the patience with a new coach/system but I do miss some of the bravado.

Honestly, I think you are 100% right.

Many (not all) Husker fans are now at the point where they are okay with winning the west and a few close losses.

 

[nebcountry]

Was is a reasonable time frame to expect Riley to win his division? To win the BIG?

As an outsider (Spartan fan) it seems like you guys have been gradually lowering expectations since entering the BIG. I understand the patience with a new coach/system but I do miss some of the bravado.

"Expect" can have a couple different meanings to me. It can mean a standard, or it can mean a prognostication/prediction.

As a "standard", I think we should win the division more than 50% of the time, and this year counts (however reasonable or unreasonable). Winning the B1G? There's a lot of factors that play into winning the conference, and it's not like we've been winning conference championships. You want bravado, well I was spoiled by a well-run program, that set a bench-mark that's pretty high. As a standard, I could say we should be winning the conference 50% of the time. But that's crazy talk considering how we've done the last 15 years. In order to have bravado, you need to have something to back it up. So, we'll have to wait on the results.

Now for the prognostication/prediction. I think we'll win the division at least once during Riley's tenure. I don't see Riley as one of the "Greats", but I don't see him as a horrible coach either. We do throw a bunch of money, time, and effort into our program and that should keep it a winning program. As for winning the B1G, I'm caught between hope and despair, so no prediction.

 

[jay-cheese]

We've been our own worst enemy on the field for the last 10-12 years. Consequently we've lost numerous games that we should've won and that HAS impacted my current expectations. Until the opposite starts happening (winning games we shouldn't) it'll be to be beyond frustrating in terms of current reality of expectations for me. Championship caliber teams do not exhibit that type of self destructive behavior and none of our coaches since Solich seem to understand this principal (and no, that doesn't mean that I think Frank should be our coach...).

GBR

 

[jflores]

Was is a reasonable time frame to expect Riley to win his division? To win the BIG?

As an outsider (Spartan fan) it seems like you guys have been gradually lowering expectations since entering the BIG. I understand the patience with a new coach/system but I do miss some of the bravado.

Its not out of the question that Riley wins the division this year. It doesn't seem too unlikely that most years NU might be a favorite or a top two choice to win the division. I really don't think that is a long term fear.

However, Pelini met that metric pretty well. NU fans aren't content to win a bunch of division titles and then get blown out in the Championship game like he did.

I think there's more fear that with only 5 years or so until Riley might look at hanging it up, he's not going to get us over the Urban Meyer hump. But who knows, he may coach 10 years and get one or two in there, or he'll fizzle out and we bring in Frost or someone as the next man up on the carousel.

I think NU is in a relatively enviable position. I think Riley is the kind of dude that can set the program on a stable footing and get us back to playing pretty good football. He might even get us that conference title we want. But due to his age, we have a number of off ramps where we can either go "you are awesome here's the statue at the stadium" or "hey thanks for getting us respectable again, we got a young hotshot coming in to build on what you laid the foundation".

 

[LRob]

You have better resources than any team in the west so I can see expecting to win the division 40-50% of the time. The downside of winning the conference is you're at a disadvantage vs. the east due to the proximity of recruits....of course the right coach can negate some of that.

 

[dinglefritz]

Its not out of the question that Riley wins the division this year. It doesn't seem too unlikely that most years NU might be a favorite or a top two choice to win the division. I really don't think that is a long term fear.

However, Pelini met that metric pretty well. NU fans aren't content to win a bunch of division titles and then get blown out in the Championship game like he did.

I think there's more fear that with only 5 years or so until Riley might look at hanging it up, he's not going to get us over the Urban Meyer hump. But who knows, he may coach 10 years and get one or two in there, or he'll fizzle out and we bring in Frost or someone as the next man up on the carousel.

I think NU is in a relatively enviable position. I think Riley is the kind of dude that can set the program on a stable footing and get us back to playing pretty good football. He might even get us that conference title we want. But due to his age, we have a number of off ramps where we can either go "you are awesome here's the statue at the stadium" or "hey thanks for getting us respectable again, we got a young hotshot coming in to build on what you laid the foundation".

Who knows, that young hotshot might already be on our staff.

 

[Crushinator]

Honestly, I think you are 100% right.

Many (not all) Husker fans are now at the point where they are okay with winning the west and a few close losses.

Look, you have to put things into context when to comes to expectations. Winning the west is a great goal for right now. Those of us that want that don't think that is the ceiling for our program, just a stepping stone. To expect NCs right now is delusional. Newsflash: we're not there right now! Give it a chance to play out and for god's sake enjoy the ride. The default mode for people consuming an entertainment product should be optimism until that optimism is unequivocally proven quixotic.

 

[Husker Psycho]

[QUOTE="Crushinator, post: 791342, member: 12498 The default mode for people consuming an entertainment product should be optimism until that optimism is unequivocally proven quixotic.[/QUOTE]


Uh... the previous coaching staff would prove that to not be a good idea. Too many people blindly loyal way too long. Never a good idea.

 

[Crushinator]

I'd say it was pretty dam clear what we had with Pelini by the end of year 6. Could we have seriously justified firing him sooner? I get that bozos can ruin a good thing if given enough time. I didn't mean to suggest blind optimism.

If you were paying close attention (even as a fan with no inside connections as I am) there were plenty of warning signs coming out of North Stadium for a while. Despite those warnings signs I remained optimistic for all but his last year. Maybe that's just how I choose to consume Husker football. That last year without optimism was a miserable year of fandom for me. Fandom without optimism sucked big time and I can't figure out why some would throw their optimism away without giving a guy a chance. Sounds pretty miserable to me...

 

[StrongArm517]

I'd say it was pretty dam clear what we had with Pelini by the end of year 6. Could we have seriously justified firing him sooner? I get that bozos can ruin a good thing if given enough time. I didn't mean to suggest blind optimism.

If you were paying close attention (even as a fan with no inside connections as I am) there were plenty of warning signs coming out of North Stadium for a while. Despite those warnings signs I remained optimistic for all but his last year. Maybe that's just how I choose to consume Husker football. That last year without optimism was a miserable year of fandom for me. Fandom without optimism sucked big time and I can't figure out why some would throw their optimism away without giving a guy a chance. Sounds pretty miserable to me...

This is exactly how I feel, (felt)

 

[otismotis08]

I just hope our administration has not and never will lower its expectations. Once that happens, we will stay lukewarm and the mediocrity and malaise will set in.