After week 6, FPI gives us 45.3% probability of winning 6 games or more, up from 20.8%. Probability of winning increased significantly against NW, Purdue, and Michigan State. Probability of winning decreased significantly against no one. The single most likely outcome is 5 wins.
The Friday game allows us to tease out how much of the change is due to Nebraska improvement, and how much is future opponents improving or regressing. After Friday, our 6 win probability was 42.2%, due to banking a win and increasing efficiencies. The remaining 3.1pp was due to future opponents regression.
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