Expectations

jflores

Offensive Coordinator
Feb 3, 2004
8,623
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Has anyone given any thought to what mega conference football expectations should be? How are we going to evaluate coaches, and so forth? In the old days it was relatively easy, at least a bowl game or better, probably win your division more often than not, and semi regular consideration for national honors like the playoffs or natty's. For a school like Nebraska, for Indiana the sites would be a bit lower.

We probably won't have bowl games much longer. Not even sure we'll have divisions. With 20 or better teams in a conference, you probably aren't winning a conf championship with any regularity. If it's a 16/20/24 team playoff, basically the top half of your conference is going every year, no matter their record.

It'll be interesting to see how those coffee shop debates play out. I guess it could be a little more like March Madness in how we look at team's and tournament seedings or how deep their runs are. Since everything is market based now, its hard for me to view NU as the Yankees as our rightful spot, I think we'd be more of a smaller market team like the Cardinals or the Royals.
 

WHCSC

Recruiting Coordinator
Feb 4, 2002
6,563
10,436
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Has anyone given any thought to what mega conference football expectations should be? How are we going to evaluate coaches, and so forth? In the old days it was relatively easy, at least a bowl game or better, probably win your division more often than not, and semi regular consideration for national honors like the playoffs or natty's. For a school like Nebraska, for Indiana the sites would be a bit lower.

We probably won't have bowl games much longer. Not even sure we'll have divisions. With 20 or better teams in a conference, you probably aren't winning a conf championship with any regularity. If it's a 16/20/24 team playoff, basically the top half of your conference is going every year, no matter their record.

It'll be interesting to see how those coffee shop debates play out. I guess it could be a little more like March Madness in how we look at team's and tournament seedings or how deep their runs are. Since everything is market based now, its hard for me to view NU as the Yankees as our rightful spot, I think we'd be more of a smaller market team like the Cardinals or the Royals.
All you have to know is iowa sucks
 

Huskerfan2112

Senior
Dec 7, 2009
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I think the bowls will stay around longer than most people think they will. ESPN and fox both need programming. And since they essentially own the conferences, they are going to want to have that programming.
 
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Redmich

Redshirt Freshman
Jun 21, 2022
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We won’t like to admit it but we will settle for current state Iowa with a blue blood history
 
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yunginsNU2

All-American
May 24, 2006
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Could encorporate a playoff like the nfl does for the ones chasing a National championship and for the bottom half do like the NIT does so they could still make bowl games a cash grab for the upper 2/3 of the ncaa
 

RedCap

Nebraska Legend
Sep 29, 2001
73,005
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My expectations are no different. We need to start with a winning season and then progress to contending for the playoffs. I don't care how conferences shake out, my expectations won't change.
 

TruHusker

Assistant Head Coach
Sep 21, 2001
10,600
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What is really going to change? Switching conferences isn't all of a sudden going to make teams better. The same teams that are great now will continue to be great until something major happens. It is always interesting to me to hear the talk of the only way Bama will go down is if Saban leaves. Like everyone is just sitting around bidding their time until the does and then they will get better.

Nebraska has not had the best timing to be absolutely terrible. Sure, there is some national presence but does anyone think it is sustainable with the current trajectory. Many people, when they find out I am a Husker fan, kid me about how long it has been since we have won anything which is true. Of course, I could compare that to how long it has been since they won a FB NC but who cares? I just want Nebraska to get better, a whole lot better.

Lastly, to follow up on the first statement - the upper 4-6 teams will likely continue to be the same 4-6 teams with a new upstart like Cincinnati was last year every once in a while. Those teams at the top will battle for Championships while the rest will have their day in the traditional bowl games.
 

redwine65

Defensive Coordinator
Jun 23, 2010
7,081
4,464
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I expect us to be competitive with anyone in the nation and 9 wins per season min
conferance champs every 5 years, be in a nc game every 10 years
and win at least 1 nc every 20 years...

seems reasonable, especially since 100 million per year is coming in
maybe 110-120 if the domers join

it seems we were competitive with everyone last year, just haven't had that killer instinct since dr. tom, to put games away
 

Redmich

Redshirt Freshman
Jun 21, 2022
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When a team that goes 1-11 gets the same 100 million dollar conference payout as a team that goes 11-1 the only real expectation becomes just showing up in order to collect your payout.

Performance is becoming increasingly decoupled from financial gain and consequences
 
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huskerfan66

Athletic Director
Dec 8, 2004
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When a team that goes 1-11 gets the same 100 million dollar conference payout as a team that goes 11-1 the only real expectation becomes just showing up in order to collect your payout.

Performance is becoming increasingly decoupled from financial gain and consequences
Still there are incentives. TV/conference revenue sharing isn't the only money to be made. Yes it's a huge chunk of change, but there's still game day revenue, apparel and branding revenue, AND post season revenue that still separates the successful from the satisfied
 
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dinglefritz

Nebraska Legend
Jan 14, 2011
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Divisions will feel like the old conferences used to size wise.. things won't change that much in that regard.
It's just nomenclature that changes, not a big deal
I've thought for several years that the B1G west is really like being in the old Big 8 conference. Trying to win the B1G conference title is like trying to have a very good season in the Big 8 and then going on to win a major bowl game ending up in the top 4-5 nationally. Our perspective should have changed dramatically when the Big 8 went away.
 

TruHusker

Assistant Head Coach
Sep 21, 2001
10,600
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I expect us to be competitive with anyone in the nation and 9 wins per season min
conferance champs every 5 years, be in a nc game every 10 years
and win at least 1 nc every 20 years...

seems reasonable, especially since 100 million per year is coming in
maybe 110-120 if the domers join

it seems we were competitive with everyone last year, just haven't had that killer instinct since dr. tom, to put games away
You must be a very disappointed fan then! We haven't come close to sniffing those goals.

The amount of money coming into schools is going to be insane. Schools will expect loyalty from the coaches? Not likely when there is a.shortage and someone is throwing 10 mill their way. There are not enough great coaches now to go around and the competition for assistants alone will be fierce. They will have huge paydays.

What AD is going to stand up and tell the schools fan that winning 3 games a year in FB and 10 in BB is OK since they are paying the coaches well above the average AND bring in 100 million from TV.

Everyone is crying about the portal now, and coaches not being loyal (see Riley Lincoln)I don't think we've seen anything yet. The TOs apparently don't come along very often, maybe once in 2 or 3 lifetimes if that.
 
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Redmich

Redshirt Freshman
Jun 21, 2022
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Still there are incentives. TV/conference revenue sharing isn't the only money to be made. Yes it's a huge chunk of change, but there's still game day revenue, apparel and branding revenue, AND post season revenue that still separates the successful from the satisfied
Bowl and playoff appearance payouts go to the conferences - the individual teams get stipends to pay bowl expenses

I guess I look at our own circumstances and have to ask do expectations or winning really matter?

if you asked anyone heading into 2018 what the absolute bare minimum metrics would be in the first four years to be retained for year 5 - our current state is far below any type of worst case scenario that could have even been imagined in 2018. Sure winning would be nice but we are going to get a huge payday regardless.
 
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king_kong_

Blackshirt
Nov 4, 2021
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I expect the B1G and pac12 to merge and never win another championship in football or basketball ever again

I expect some form of an sec/ACC/big12/Notre dame/big East (hoops) amalgamation to form the other 65% of what will then be the top tier collegiate league, and all the champions in every sport to come from there

so, basically not much different than today. We took the money far too early, and it is costing us dearly
 

BleedRed78

Sophomore
Oct 22, 2019
1,358
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What is really going to change? Switching conferences isn't all of a sudden going to make teams better. The same teams that are great now will continue to be great until something major happens. It is always interesting to me to hear the talk of the only way Bama will go down is if Saban leaves. Like everyone is just sitting around bidding their time until the does and then they will get better.

Nebraska has not had the best timing to be absolutely terrible. Sure, there is some national presence but does anyone think it is sustainable with the current trajectory. Many people, when they find out I am a Husker fan, kid me about how long it has been since we have won anything which is true. Of course, I could compare that to how long it has been since they won a FB NC but who cares? I just want Nebraska to get better, a whole lot better.

Lastly, to follow up on the first statement - the upper 4-6 teams will likely continue to be the same 4-6 teams with a new upstart like Cincinnati was last year every once in a while. Those teams at the top will battle for Championships while the rest will have their day in the traditional bowl games.
Lots of teams down there totem pole within a superconference will benefit by stealing recruiting and portal transfers from all schools outside the superconferences. Nebraska will benefit greatly, as we are the brand to best in the Midwest/great plains
 
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scarletred

Nebraska Legend
Jun 17, 2001
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I expect the B1G and pac12 to merge and never win another championship in football or basketball ever again

I expect some form of an sec/ACC/big12/Notre dame/big East (hoops) amalgamation to form the other 65% of what will then be the top tier collegiate league, and all the champions in every sport to come from there

so, basically not much different than today. We took the money far too early, and it is costing us dearly
I’m telling you ND will end up in the B1G..
 

king_kong_

Blackshirt
Nov 4, 2021
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I’m telling you ND will end up in the B1G..
You’re not the first to tell me that

you won’t be the last given B1G fans’ opinions of themselves and the conference

Notre Dame will do what’s right for them, which in my opinion keeps them as far away from this cesspool of losers as possible
 

IndyHusker

Administrator
Moderator
Aug 23, 2001
62,896
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Lafayette, Indiana
You’re not the first to tell me that

you won’t be the last given B1G fans’ opinions of themselves and the conference

Notre Dame will do what’s right for them, which in my opinion keeps them as far away from this cesspool of losers as possible
The cesspool of losers collecting a huge amount of money every year.
 

WHCSC

Recruiting Coordinator
Feb 4, 2002
6,563
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You’re not the first to tell me that

you won’t be the last given B1G fans’ opinions of themselves and the conference

Notre Dame will do what’s right for them, which in my opinion keeps them as far away from this cesspool of losers as possible
You are koo-koo
 
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huskerfan66

Athletic Director
Dec 8, 2004
15,259
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How much do you believe ND makes from their TV deal? Do you have "proof" of this?
Not sure what will happen first but in my opinion, the TV deal will likely tip the hand what ND does. IF FOX winds up with TV rights and subs them off to alphabet channels and ESPN isn't involved then ND is more than likely going to the b1g
 
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king_kong_

Blackshirt
Nov 4, 2021
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How much do you believe ND makes from their TV deal? Do you have "proof" of this?
I know that from 1991-1996 ND received a minimum of $40M from NBC

I wouldn't be surprised if it's $40M/year these days
 

konaki

Offensive Coordinator
Oct 18, 2002
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Notre Dame recruits nationally but now that USC, UCLA have joined the BIG Notre Dame will have a larger influx of recruits from Southern California to choose from. The idea that Notre Dame will join the ACC or SEC is just not in their best interest.

I doubt Notre Dame wants to be in the SEC and go up against Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Texas, Florida or Oklahoma and that's what they'll get often. Notre Dame will not stay in the ACC which will be raided after Notre Dame goes to the BIG.

We have two groups of people on this post as to where ND will end up and it's all about money and best chances for championships. Somebody is going to right about this thing and somebody is going to be way off, we shall see.

The rest of the conferences, PAC12, BIG12, ACC and BIG East are going to be quite different once the dust settles. Behind closed doors the BIG and the SEC are planning on bring in other schools and once they do some conferences will be a shell of their former selves. jmo
 
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king_kong_

Blackshirt
Nov 4, 2021
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Any sources to back that up? All I'm seeing is $15M/yr more recently than 1996
here's the NYT reporting the deal in 1991


the $15M/year is believed, not actual reality. my guess is it's more like $20M+, based on performance - still much lower than my $40M/year guess.

they also just launched a streaming service, which will bring in more millions.

NBC deal goes through 2025. they have a tremendous amount of leverage up to that point, and would be absolute fools to forfeit a cent of it in order to join a conference.

ND may be a lot of things, but they're not stupid. joining the b1g on the b1g's terms would be very, very stupid.
 
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konaki

Offensive Coordinator
Oct 18, 2002
8,928
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Revenues by conference.

  • Big Ten $768.9 million
  • SEC: $728.9 million
  • Pac-12: $533.8 million
  • ACC: $496.7 million
  • Big 12: $409.2 million
 

WHCSC

Recruiting Coordinator
Feb 4, 2002
6,563
10,436
113
here's the NYT reporting the deal in 1991


the $15M/year is believed, not actual reality. my guess is it's more like $20M+, based on performance - still much lower than my $40M/year guess.

they also just launched a streaming service, which will bring in more millions.

NBC deal goes through 2025. they have a tremendous amount of leverage up to that point, and would be absolute fools to forfeit a cent of it in order to join a conference.

ND may be a lot of things, but they're not stupid. joining the b1g on the b1g's terms would be very, very stupid.
Way less than the B1G teams make then?
 

king_kong_

Blackshirt
Nov 4, 2021
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Way less than the B1G teams make then?
we were paid $54M from the B1G last year ($19.8M from tv - less than the $20M+ I suspect ND made)

I would be willing to bet anything you'd like that ND generated more than $54M last year
 

king_kong_

Blackshirt
Nov 4, 2021
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If ND is to join a league, the B1G is its natural home.
more natural than the league they're already a large part of and have already joined in the past?

please explain, and keep in mind money/geography have never swayed ND
 
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WHCSC

Recruiting Coordinator
Feb 4, 2002
6,563
10,436
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we were paid $54M from the B1G last year ($19.8M from tv - less than the $20M+ I suspect ND made)

I would be willing to bet anything you'd like that ND generated more than $54M last year
A bet would be worthless since there is no way to get proof of the real number. It's all guesses and my guess is they get less than we do.
 
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TruHusker

Assistant Head Coach
Sep 21, 2001
10,600
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Lots of teams down there totem pole within a superconference will benefit by stealing recruiting and portal transfers from all schools outside the superconferences. Nebraska will benefit greatly, as we are the brand to best in the Midwest/great plains
That is such a great strategy, "steal" recruiting and transfers from all other schools. Essentially, you are saying we didn't recruit, retain or develop well the first time around so now we are going to take players that are leaving other schools for one reason or another and on this we will build a juggernaut!
 
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Tuco Salamanca

Head Coach
Aug 18, 2016
12,680
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Albuquerque
we were paid $54M from the B1G last year ($19.8M from tv - less than the $20M+ I suspect ND made)

I would be willing to bet anything you'd like that ND generated more than $54M last year
Those numbers are for fiscal year 2020 which included huge losses due to the pandemic. We need to wait until later in July or early august to get the FY 2021 audited numbers. My guess is it will be 12-15% higher at a minimum. Additionally, that won’t be the future payout with the addition of the LA schools. That is the number to compare to what ND is able to negotiate on their own with NBC.