Expectations

coolonetoo

Sophomore
May 12, 2003
1,106
535
113
In listening to local talk radio today, there’s a common theme: Why do so many fans seem to dislike Darin Erstad and what expectations do they have that he is not meeting?

I thought one media member put it well when he said the typical fan pays the most attention (or only pays attention) in late May/early June and sees a team that falls short when it matters most. That’s probably true. I certainly have had conversations today about Saturday’s game with co-workers who haven’t mentioned Nebraska baseball all season. I don’t think that describes most of the Erstad grumbling on this board, though. Most of us pay attention year-round.

Here are my expectations of this program based on my past, repeated assertion that Nebraska should settle for nothing less than being the best program in the Big Ten over the long haul.

In a 10-year period, Nebraska Baseball should:

1. Make the conference tournament 10 times.
2. Be in the regional at-large conversation in mid-May 9 times.
3. Make a regional 8 times.
4. Be in the regional hosting conversation in mid-May 4 times.
5. Host a regional 2 times.
6. Win a regional 2 times.

I don’t think the above expectations are unrealistic and they are nowhere near the standards of 2001-2005 that the local media seem to think is the that to which fans hold this program. It’s basically expecting to consistently be a top 40 team and twice a decade be a top 16 team.

So how is the current coaching staff doing against my expectations? If we allow a couple of years to clean up the Anderson mess and start the clock in 2014, slightly below.

With all that said, I don’t feel terrible about 1-3. The question is can this staff get to the point where 4-6 are in play? The current state of the program is that we should expect to contend for a regional berth at the start of every season. At least that’s how I feel every year. But we haven’t sniffed hosting a regional or making a super.

Can we take the next step? In my opinion, it would only have taken a handful more wins this year:

1. Win one of four vs. Oregon State instead of zero.
2. Hold a seven-run lead vs. Sam Houston.
3. Change three of the eight losses against Minnesota/Iowa/Illinois/Northwestern to wins. Four were one-run/extra-inning losses and two were to Northwestern!
4. Beat Ohio State in Omaha

These six extra wins would have meant being regular season and tournament conference champs and probably an RPI in the high teens. That’s a hosting resume and it’s pretty much what Minnesota did in 2018 (although they had a bit better record against a lesser SOS). Heck, take the non-con out entirely and just win three more league games and the tourney and we’d probably still have a shot to host. I don’t think a season like this at least once every 4-5 years is too much to ask.

I’ll say it again: Can we take the next step? I don’t know the answer but I know this year’s team wasn’t far from doing so. The flip side is they weren’t very far from falling off the edge, either. An extra loss to Arizona State and another to Michigan and we probably don’t make a regional.

This turned into a bit of a novel but I had to get it out there. :)
 
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coolonetoo

Sophomore
May 12, 2003
1,106
535
113
In listening to local talk radio today, there’s a common theme: Why do so many fans seem to dislike Darin Erstad and what expectations do they have that he is not meeting?

I thought one media member put it well when he said the typical fan pays the most attention (or only pays attention) in late May/early June and sees a team that falls short when it matters most. That’s probably true. I certainly have had conversations today about Saturday’s game with co-workers who haven’t mentioned Nebraska baseball all season. I don’t think that describes most of the Erstad grumbling on this board, though. Most of us pay attention year-round.

Here are my expectations of this program based on my past, repeated assertion that Nebraska should settle for nothing less than being the best program in the Big Ten over the long haul.

In a 10-year period, Nebraska Baseball should:

1. Make the conference tournament 10 times.
2. Be in the regional at-large conversation in mid-May 9 times.
3. Make a regional 8 times.
4. Be in the regional hosting conversation in mid-May 4 times.
5. Host a regional 2 times.
6. Win a regional 2 times.

I don’t think the above expectations are unrealistic and they are nowhere near the standards of 2001-2005 that the local media seem to think is the that to which fans hold this program. It’s basically expecting to consistently be a top 40 team and twice a decade be a top 16 team.

So how is the current coaching staff doing against my expectations? If we allow a couple of years to clean up the Anderson mess and start the clock in 2014, slightly below.

With all that said, I don’t feel terrible about 1-3. The question is can this staff get to the point where 4-6 are in play? The current state of the program is that we should expect to contend for a regional berth at the start of every season. At least that’s how I feel every year. But we haven’t sniffed hosting a regional or making a super.

Can we take the next step? In my opinion, it would only have taken a handful more wins this year:

1. Win one of four vs. Oregon State instead of zero.
2. Hold a seven-run lead vs. Sam Houston.
3. Change three of the eight losses against Minnesota/Iowa/Illinois/Northwestern to wins. Four were one-run/extra-inning losses and two were to Northwestern!
4. Beat Ohio State in Omaha

These six extra wins would have meant being regular season and tournament conference champs and probably an RPI in the high teens. That’s a hosting resume and it’s pretty much what Minnesota did in 2018 (although they had a bit better record against a lesser SOS). Heck, take the non-con out entirely and just win three more league games and the tourney and we’d probably still have a shot to host. I don’t think a season like this at least once every 4-5 years is too much to ask.

I’ll say it again: Can we take the next step? I don’t know the answer but I know this year’s team wasn’t far from doing so. The flip side is they weren’t very far from falling off the edge, either. An extra loss to Arizona State and another to Michigan and we probably don’t make a regional.

This turned into a bit of a novel but I had to get it out there. :)
Holy crap. This took me about half an hour to write. The announcement of Erstad stepping down happened while I was writing it.
 
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Nebraskakid555

Walk On
Gold Member
Jan 22, 2013
473
240
43
83
Tigard, Oregon
In listening to local talk radio today, there’s a common theme: Why do so many fans seem to dislike Darin Erstad and what expectations do they have that he is not meeting?

I thought one media member put it well when he said the typical fan pays the most attention (or only pays attention) in late May/early June and sees a team that falls short when it matters most. That’s probably true. I certainly have had conversations today about Saturday’s game with co-workers who haven’t mentioned Nebraska baseball all season. I don’t think that describes most of the Erstad grumbling on this board, though. Most of us pay attention year-round.

Here are my expectations of this program based on my past, repeated assertion that Nebraska should settle for nothing less than being the best program in the Big Ten over the long haul.

In a 10-year period, Nebraska Baseball should:

1. Make the conference tournament 10 times.
2. Be in the regional at-large conversation in mid-May 9 times.
3. Make a regional 8 times.
4. Be in the regional hosting conversation in mid-May 4 times.
5. Host a regional 2 times.
6. Win a regional 2 times.

I don’t think the above expectations are unrealistic and they are nowhere near the standards of 2001-2005 that the local media seem to think is the that to which fans hold this program. It’s basically expecting to consistently be a top 40 team and twice a decade be a top 16 team.

So how is the current coaching staff doing against my expectations? If we allow a couple of years to clean up the Anderson mess and start the clock in 2014, slightly below.

With all that said, I don’t feel terrible about 1-3. The question is can this staff get to the point where 4-6 are in play? The current state of the program is that we should expect to contend for a regional berth at the start of every season. At least that’s how I feel every year. But we haven’t sniffed hosting a regional or making a super.

Can we take the next step? In my opinion, it would only have taken a handful more wins this year:

1. Win one of four vs. Oregon State instead of zero.
2. Hold a seven-run lead vs. Sam Houston.
3. Change three of the eight losses against Minnesota/Iowa/Illinois/Northwestern to wins. Four were one-run/extra-inning losses and two were to Northwestern!
4. Beat Ohio State in Omaha

These six extra wins would have meant being regular season and tournament conference champs and probably an RPI in the high teens. That’s a hosting resume and it’s pretty much what Minnesota did in 2018 (although they had a bit better record against a lesser SOS). Heck, take the non-con out entirely and just win three more league games and the tourney and we’d probably still have a shot to host. I don’t think a season like this at least once every 4-5 years is too much to ask.

I’ll say it again: Can we take the next step? I don’t know the answer but I know this year’s team wasn’t far from doing so. The flip side is they weren’t very far from falling off the edge, either. An extra loss to Arizona State and another to Michigan and we probably don’t make a regional.

This turned into a bit of a novel but I had to get it out there. :)
I'm not an expert, However, just being a super baseball player @ Nebraska, & a player for Angles doesn't mean you can coach. Not every person can coach , its a special gift . I don't believe this staff can communicate, and recruit.
GBR.
 

RobsterMobster

Administrator
Moderator
Jan 5, 2010
18,105
15,218
113
Good post. I think your expectations start out right but do feel in ten years you should make the CWS at least twice. If not then what’s the point? We just need to pay a guy to come. We have the money and the rest of the Big Ten could care less. You win close to 40 games and the conference you host every year.

One nice thing is we usually are the 5th-7th rated conference so a host option is pretty easy to accomplish. Much easier than it was in the Big 12. Many May/June fans down realize that. Which I point out all the time based on who has hosted most years since we’ve been in the conference.
 

coolonetoo

Sophomore
May 12, 2003
1,106
535
113
One nice thing is we usually are the 5th-7th rated conference so a host option is pretty easy to accomplish. Much easier than it was in the Big 12. Many May/June fans down realize that. Which I point out all the time based on who has hosted most years since we’ve been in the conference.
I don't know if it's easier to host than in the Big 12. It's probably easier to win the regular season crown which helps the resume but the Big 12 regularly has multiple hosts while it would be an extreme rarity for the Big Ten to get more than one.

The point is, though, that the Big Ten is a good enough conference that it won't hold back a program like Nebraska from doing whatever it wants to do on a national level. Illinois was a top 8 national seed in 2015 and hosted a super regional. Enough said.
 
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RobsterMobster

Administrator
Moderator
Jan 5, 2010
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I don't know if it's easier to host than in the Big 12. It's probably easier to win the regular season crown which helps the resume but the Big 12 regularly has multiple hosts while it would be an extreme rarity for the Big Ten to get more than one.

The point is, though, that the Big Ten is a good enough conference that it won't hold back a program like Nebraska from doing whatever it wants to do on a national level. Illinois was a top 8 national seed in 2015 and hosted a super regional. Enough said.
Correct, the reason it is easier is because it is easier to win.
 

HuskersNC

Junior
May 23, 2010
1,624
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Omaha, NE
Good list! I would only add winning the conference regular season and/or tournament more often than what we've done so far. Not every year, but more than 1 trophy out of a possible 16 in 8 years isn't asking all that much. Especially when you have the tournament at home.
 

gunNrun

Junior
Gold Member
Dec 16, 2007
1,947
968
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Lincoln, Nebraska
My expectations for the program were always based on the support of the Athletic Dept and the University.
So until I see what the next version of commitment will be, I can't put down any expectations for the program.
Hopefully they will go up, instead of going down or neutral.
 
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coolonetoo

Sophomore
May 12, 2003
1,106
535
113
Good list! I would only add winning the conference regular season and/or tournament more often than what we've done so far. Not every year, but more than 1 trophy out of a possible 16 in 8 years isn't asking all that much. Especially when you have the tournament at home.
Nope. That’s not on my list. Not that I don’t want to win conference titles. They are just much less important to me than the NCAA tournament. If we do the things laid out above, we will win some conference hardware along the way.
 

k9_r

Defensive Coordinator
Jul 31, 2010
7,714
3,318
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I'm a high expectations guy (moving forward, right?) and I keep them high so long as we have high level administration and fan support. From this I expect success to follow.

Success to me..
- Having the best conference record in any three year period even without the best record in any of the three years, In other words, be the team to beat every year.
Disclaimer: Would never have such an expectation in any of the other P 5 conferences. It's a B1G thing and Indiana is our sole competitor for that.
- Make a regional every single year and suffer major disappointment if we miss one every 15-20 years.

With those two things we will get our share of conference titles, our share of host spots and CWS appearances. This would place us in the land of perennial contenders and maybe a championship or two along the way.

I'd be happy and, yes, that's some high expectations. Been unhappy for some time now.
 

coolonetoo

Sophomore
May 12, 2003
1,106
535
113
I'm a high expectations guy (moving forward, right?) and I keep them high so long as we have high level administration and fan support. From this I expect success to follow.

Success to me..
- Having the best conference record in any three year period even without the best record in any of the three years, In other words, be the team to beat every year.
Disclaimer: Would never have such an expectation in any of the other P 5 conferences. It's a B1G thing and Indiana is our sole competitor for that.
- Make a regional every single year and suffer major disappointment if we miss one every 15-20 years.

With those two things we will get our share of conference titles, our share of host spots and CWS appearances. This would place us in the land of perennial contenders and maybe a championship or two along the way.

I'd be happy and, yes, that's some high expectations. Been unhappy for some time now.
I think your expectations are only slightly higher than mine but mostly parallel. Be the best program in the conference and a regular in regionals and the rest will come.
 
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RobsterMobster

Administrator
Moderator
Jan 5, 2010
18,105
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I'm a high expectations guy (moving forward, right?) and I keep them high so long as we have high level administration and fan support. From this I expect success to follow.

Success to me..
- Having the best conference record in any three year period even without the best record in any of the three years, In other words, be the team to beat every year.
Disclaimer: Would never have such an expectation in any of the other P 5 conferences. It's a B1G thing and Indiana is our sole competitor for that.
- Make a regional every single year and suffer major disappointment if we miss one every 15-20 years.

With those two things we will get our share of conference titles, our share of host spots and CWS appearances. This would place us in the land of perennial contenders and maybe a championship or two along the way.

I'd be happy and, yes, that's some high expectations. Been unhappy for some time now.
I can get behind this. Smokin