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ESPN(tfwiw) projection of season win totals

I think we'll be better than this. I'd pick 8-4. But it speaks to two things. First, we're an inexperienced team overall. We're near the bottom of the league in returning starters and production. It also speaks to the fact that the talent level had slipped. If Riley and staff can bring in 2-3 more classes like 2017 and what 2018 may become, we'll be better positioned.
 
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I am not a "run the ball" groupie but if we don't have an above average ground game and a D that is a momentum changer it will be a difficult year. The more pressure that is put on our passing, the worse things will get.
 
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

Here is a list of projected win totals sorted by their famous FPI.

If that is how the season plays out for the Huskers, I may take a hiatus from this board for sanity's sake.

Eichorst would definitely get fired if this scenario played out. Mike Riley would very close. He would be the first Nebraska coach in 56 years to finish with a losing record in 2 out 3 seasons.

If this came into fruition, Mike Riley would be 1-8 vs. Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northwestern. I don't believe the AD survives that type of reality 36 months after firing the previous coach while stating, "At the end of the day, we had to look at where Iowa is currently."

I do question how the FPI formula gives Nebraska only a 42% chance of winning at Minnesota. They don't have a QB who can throw the football, and Coach Row the Boat wants to throw the ball over the field.
 
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7 wins is probably as low as I'd guess, but either way Riley will get at least one more year no matter what.
 
I am not a "run the ball" groupie but if we don't have an above average ground game and a D that is a momentum changer it will be a difficult year. The more pressure that is put on our passing, the worse things will get.

This right here!
 
FYI on paper Penn State's win total projection was 6.5 last year. LSU had a total of 10, and Oregon was 8. They are wrong sometimes.
This. There are intangibles this very simple metric can't incorporate. For example, while it is true we lose a veteran QB and are breaking in a new one, I would wager we are going to get better play from our QB, not worse. Ditto for: center, safety, running back.
 
This is the most talented roster Riley has had.
We finally have a pro style quaterback.
&
We have Bob Diaco running the defense.

TAKE THE OVER!

I admire your optimism but seriously, there is a reality world somewhere you have to deal with. Just having "the most talented roster Riley has had" doesn't mean you have a better team than those you are playing. I believe many of the teams we play this year will be improved over last year. You have to take that into consideration, just not that you got better according to whatever metric. I hope Lee is lights out the QB everyone is looking for but there are a lot of teams who think they finally have "their" QB to fit "their" system. Reality is the pits but he hasn't proven a thing in his career thus far. I do think Diaco gets there if he sticks around long enough but I question if he has the horses for the D he wants to run. He may have, but we are plugging in lots of new faces on that D.
 
Year 3 replacing a coach that by all accounts was a buffoon

If we have a better coach with a better staff, a better developer of talent and a better recruiter then we ought to at least match the previous regime's results. There are no passes for whiffing on your first choice as a defensive coordinator.

Anything less than 9 wins is underachieving ... 7 wins or less earns a twist of the heat dial on the seat warmer
 
IMO we need to see a 10 win season that includes the bowl game. More importantly we need to win the west and show up for the B1G championship game. Anything less than winning the west is a big disappointment for me.
 
Easy to see from a national perspective why you would think Nebraska is in for a rough season. The new QB is a Tulane transfer who didn't light the world on fire, defense is switching schemes and you lost a lot of players with starting experience. We are at a disadvantage by every metric they used to base this on.

That being sad I would take the over in a heart beat.

I don't go to ESPN to get actual analysis anymore. That's where I go when I want to hear how I should feel about social issues to connect with the younger generation.
 
Don't envision this happening, but I guess I could see it as a possibility. I think the defense will be much improved.
 
No freaking way. Seriously.
QB will not be worse. All espn sees is a three year starter gone. Remember, this is for every team and you have to use certain controllled metrics. You are supposed to get worse at qb after losing a three year starter. We wont.
Next is running back. We lose Newby. Liked him, but lets be honest he is replaceable even if it is by comittee.
We also lose Gerry but addition by subtraction?
LBs should be a wash. D line should be better. O line should be better, right? Or am I crazy? Wr you could say wont be as good but theres potential there.
I just dont think this is based on hardcore, individualized analysis. Or im just really an idiot. I was feeling more confident about this team than last seasons. I say ten wins including bowl game which is looking phenominal. But really as jib says we should piss 9 wins by now. The jump from 9 to 10 is not small, but we can do it.
 
Lost a big senior class with lots of experience. QBs haven't thrown a pass at NU. Offense went south at the end of last season, and defense was average. Tougher schedule this season. Some of the reasons for the predictions.

But I have much more of a positive outlook. With Diaco, our D will play hard. That by itself should help. I think if our OL stays healthy we should do well on offense. If Tanner can throw to our guys and not the other team, we could have a pretty good balanced offense. I think we can run enough with the backs we have, and I think our interior OL should help a lot in the running attack.
 
No freaking way. Seriously.
QB will not be worse. All espn sees is a three year starter gone. Remember, this is for every team and you have to use certain controllled metrics. You are supposed to get worse at qb after losing a three year starter. We wont.
Next is running back. We lose Newby. Liked him, but lets be honest he is replaceable even if it is by comittee.
We also lose Gerry but addition by subtraction?
LBs should be a wash. D line should be better. O line should be better, right? Or am I crazy? Wr you could say wont be as good but theres potential there.
I just dont think this is based on hardcore, individualized analysis. Or im just really an idiot. I was feeling more confident about this team than last seasons. I say ten wins including bowl game which is looking phenominal. But really as jib says we should piss 9 wins by now. The jump from 9 to 10 is not small, but we can do it.
This is a very good post. A post of an observant fan is how I see it; so off the cuff.
- qb : A dramatic improvement. Heck , the fans at the Spring game by the play and game management of the the 3rd team qb running the white, there are two above him.... Tanner's completion % from Tulane is deceptive; he was throwing for 30% in a couple games where he was drowning under 5-7 guys mugging him, incredible he made it to a 53% average from there. He was young and then we got him through connections at camps where he starred. This system is killer on D's with the type of qb's we have and the pressure it brings with qb's who can throw into tighter windows. These guys can scramble and not backwards, they may not go 60 - but will consistently do better for shorter distances. qb will hit open players through rotation.
- rb. Agree with your comments. If Devine plays consistently to his ability, he will help our run game immensly, he beats you down and has moves. We have a couple potential star role players. We will be better than last year if we play the hot hand.
- OL : is being coached more by committee, its my take. More experienced players and/or physical improvement ( center ) will help . Still THE ? mark. Should be able to attain competence, with some good run game blocking. If play is sub-par this year, there will be changes. They are being ?'d enough to be challenged - not to mention Iowa coaches mocking them.
- O overall : receivers will be as good or better, some great leadership. They are hungry and were getting a bit angry ( at TA? ) at anyone mailing it in, at the end of last year. Coaching can bloom with a qb who follows system, and can or will make the throws.
- - - THE D : this is scary , could be a Blackshirt attack. I think we have great coaches, and despite arm chair b s on here at times; they have resumes. They should be dramatic in defending the end zone ( coaches preach and have the cred ). I believe coach P on the line has some physical future NFL bound players and more coming in. It goes on from there, to the back end. The incoming coaches have placed high in National D stats in the past..
GBR - we have a tough enough schedule, but we have transitioned out of a lot of the undercurrents that were character undercutting factors on this group. Here comes a team
 
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I believe many of the teams we play this year will be improved over last year. You have to take that into consideration, just not that you got better according to whatever metric.
I don't see it. Minnesota has a brand new coach with new systems in play all over the place.
The same goes for Oregon.
Does anyone really think a Wisky team who played over their heads last year will do the same this year? Their recruiting classes are consistently in the 40's or higher.
The same goes for Iowa.
OSU could be better b/c most of last year they barely squeaked by average Big Ten competition. However, a night game in Lincoln goes to our advantage.

I think ESPN is loopy. With this schedule we should be at ten games.
 
I don't see it. Minnesota has a brand new coach with new systems in play all over the place.
The same goes for Oregon.
Does anyone really think a Wisky team who played over their heads last year will do the same this year? Their recruiting classes are consistently in the 40's or higher.
The same goes for Iowa.
OSU could be better b/c most of last year they barely squeaked by average Big Ten competition. However, a night game in Lincoln goes to our advantage.

I think ESPN is loopy. With this schedule we should be at ten games.
NW and Wisconsin will be better next year. OSU will still be outstanding. Penn State could be the best team in the conference. That's four teams that looked to be better than Nebraska (and Iowa for that matter). I do think Nebraska wins more than 6 games but Nebraska nor Iowa fans should be getting too excited about winning 10 games next year.
 
NW and Wisconsin will be better next year. OSU will still be outstanding. Penn State could be the best team in the conference. That's four teams that looked to be better than Nebraska (and Iowa for that matter). I do think Nebraska wins more than 6 games but Nebraska nor Iowa fans should be getting too excited about winning 10 games next year.
We beat Northwestern last year at their place and the score should have been higher had we not fumbled twice into the end zone. We get them in Lincoln this year.
We took Wisconsin into overtime at their place last year and would have won if we had had a QB who could make accurate reads in the passing game. On two critical plays in overtime Armstrong had wide open receivers but chose to force it to guys not open. We get Wisky in Lincoln this year. We will be better too than last year and I think we win this one.
Iowa is always tough and plays us tough. I love the idea of NU vs. Iowa becoming a big rivalry. It just seems natural. The game is in Lincoln this year and our new QB won't be so new by then. Trouble is, Iowa under Ferentz always seems to start slowly, but by the end of the year are gelling. I am obviously biased, but I think Nebraska wins this year. We are 3-3 against Iowa since joining the B1G. Should be a great game and an important one.
I think we lose to OSU and PSU. All the others are winnable.
But dadgummit, Wisky has an easy schedule this year. We could beat them but still not win the West if we lose to anyone other than OSU and PSU.
Can't wait for the season! Maybe I am drinking the Big Red koolaid but I am very optimistic about this team.
 
Pelini despite all his flaws set the low water mark at 9 wins. In year 3 I think it is fair to expect the same from Riley. If seasons start accumulating that fall short of this then I think it is fair to wonder if he is the the right guy or whether the program should lower expectations further to the point where a winning season and bowl game is satisfactory
 
I thought it was just a monkey... don't remember that it needed to be a trained monkey.

Appreciate the clarification.
 
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Blah, blah, blah. B1G West champs, haters! We'll drop the BCG by two touchdowns, but still have a hell of a year.
 
I thought it was just a monkey... don't remember that it needed to be a trained monkey.

Appreciate the clarification.
Well you just forgot being a pro lb coach qualified as training. Easily done with the lack of tackling ability at the end of the last regime.
 
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