ESPN has us at 10-2

Tuco Salamanca

Offensive Coordinator
Aug 18, 2016
9,389
12,222
113
Albuquerque
So, what was their offenses rated?
And, were teams that were imbalanced, a real highly ranked defense with a lower ranked offense, and vice versa, how did those teams fare?
As time goes by, the defensive stats lost their weight,while offensive stats gain in theirs.
Now, since the advent of the rule changes, there are several exceptions,as you noted, but go back further, where many draw their conceptions of how defenses should perform, and those exceptions dry up.
It doesn't matter, Oklahoma 3 times and Oregon are a combined 1-4 in CFP games. They are the epitome of high powered offense and no defense. They won the games against the teams they scheduled in the non-con and won the games against the teams they were most familiar with, then when they played teams with better defenses, they lost. Alabama had the 6th rated offense in 2018, they scored 16 points against Clemson. Notre Dame had the 32nd rated offense in 2018, they scored 3 points.

I have said multiple times that the offenses are better and that what is considered an elite defense today with regards to yards allowed, points allowed and yards per play, probably wouldn't have been considered an elite defense in 2001, but the fact remains, that the team with the better defense is winning the games in the CFP to the tune of 73%.

When Clemson and Alabama played, their offenses were ranked 3rd and 6th respectively. Final score 44-16 Clemson.

Going back to 2009, the rankings in total defense are as follows:
Alabama - #2
Auburn - #60
Alabama - #1
Alabama - #1
Florida St - #3

The exception was Auburn who beat Oregon in the championship game, Oregon had the #1 offense in the country that year, and was only able to score 19 points in the title game. Oregon had the 34th best defense that year. Probably the best ranking they had over the last 10 years.

So in the last 10 seasons, in the BCS title game then the CFP semis and finals, 15 out of 20 games, the team with the better defense wins. I don't know about you but 75% is a pretty decent number.

Also note that in 1 of those 5 losses, Clemson in 2016 had the 8th rated defense in the country.

When it comes down to winning a title, outscoring a top 4 team 2 weeks in a row is going to be difficult. As Oklahoma and Oregon have proven 4 times in the last 5 years.
 

NorthwoodHusker

Blackshirt
Jun 20, 2019
3,477
1,632
113
It doesn't matter, Oklahoma 3 times and Oregon are a combined 1-4 in CFP games. They are the epitome of high powered offense and no defense. They won the games against the teams they scheduled in the non-con and won the games against the teams they were most familiar with, then when they played teams with better defenses, they lost. Alabama had the 6th rated offense in 2018, they scored 16 points against Clemson. Notre Dame had the 32nd rated offense in 2018, they scored 3 points.

I have said multiple times that the offenses are better and that what is considered an elite defense today with regards to yards allowed, points allowed and yards per play, probably wouldn't have been considered an elite defense in 2001, but the fact remains, that the team with the better defense is winning the games in the CFP to the tune of 73%.

When Clemson and Alabama played, their offenses were ranked 3rd and 6th respectively. Final score 44-16 Clemson.

Going back to 2009, the rankings in total defense are as follows:
Alabama - #2
Auburn - #60
Alabama - #1
Alabama - #1
Florida St - #3

The exception was Auburn who beat Oregon in the championship game, Oregon had the #1 offense in the country that year, and was only able to score 19 points in the title game. Oregon had the 34th best defense that year. Probably the best ranking they had over the last 10 years.

So in the last 10 seasons, in the BCS title game then the CFP semis and finals, 15 out of 20 games, the team with the better defense wins. I don't know about you but 75% is a pretty decent number.

Also note that in 1 of those 5 losses, Clemson in 2016 had the 8th rated defense in the country.

When it comes down to winning a title, outscoring a top 4 team 2 weeks in a row is going to be difficult. As Oklahoma and Oregon have proven 4 times in the last 5 years.
Thanks for the work.
I mentioned balance, because okie and oregon are the epitome of unbalanced, and flipped, a top ten D wont win or get you to the playoffs if your offense is rated in the hundreds, that will never happen.
One thing I did notice is, top ten defensive teams we scarce in the playoffs, more than it used to be.

There could be ballpark numbers/rankings/finishes regarding bot O and D, and whats for sure, is that those numbers have changed.
It's also interesting that more and more mobile qbs are getting better and better with their accuracy, which is one of the most striking changes, in just number of teams/qbs hitting high percentages in completions.
This places the qb at an elevated piece of an offense, and I'm glad we have who we have as coaches.

As time goes by, we will see more high comp pct mobile qbs, and where defenses have in the past caught up, it appears this is no longer the case. No new bears defenses,pesos etc have come thus far.
 

Tuco Salamanca

Offensive Coordinator
Aug 18, 2016
9,389
12,222
113
Albuquerque
Again top defenses are defined each year. I think you are banking on this trend because you aren't confident that Frost, Chins and Nebraska are going to get back to having a top defense.

I would agree that balance is the key, you cannot have a defense in the 100s and expect to win titles, especially in the Big 10. You aren't beating Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, then Ohio St or Michigan in a title game, then beating 2 more top 4 teams with that style of defense. For Nebraska to get to a CFP, they need to probably be a top 30 defense, maybe top 40.

At a minimum we need to allow at least 80 yards and 8 to 9 points less per game than last year.
 

NorthwoodHusker

Blackshirt
Jun 20, 2019
3,477
1,632
113
Again top defenses are defined each year. I think you are banking on this trend because you aren't confident that Frost, Chins and Nebraska are going to get back to having a top defense.

I would agree that balance is the key, you cannot have a defense in the 100s and expect to win titles, especially in the Big 10. You aren't beating Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, then Ohio St or Michigan in a title game, then beating 2 more top 4 teams with that style of defense. For Nebraska to get to a CFP, they need to probably be a top 30 defense, maybe top 40.

At a minimum we need to allow at least 80 yards and 8 to 9 points less per game than last year.
Exactly the opposite as regards Chins.
My main thoughts are,the old defensive heavy mindset, where its rare a top 5 defense wins a natty today,that the balance has changed, and you can get much further with less.
Thats not saying you don't need one, just not the old ways of thinking.
Our old defensive numbers were always skewed, as our second teamers would make early entrances into games.
Now, lets hope the same happens, but the numbers will be even more skewed imo, and a top 15 defense might more resemble that of a top twenty five.
 

wkato

Sophomore
Dec 23, 2006
1,277
823
113
You Nebraskans crack me up, we have prestigious Camp Randall Stadium with our renown "jump around" and you got Hee - Haw highlights at halftime.
Yep, that's what ya got, the jump around! Congrats, one day you might have more.
 

wkato

Sophomore
Dec 23, 2006
1,277
823
113
Minnesota fired DCoordinator after Illinois game. After this only game lost was northwestern due to interceptions thrown by Morgan. Minnesota is a lot better & you wont come into Minnesota & trash the gophers under this DCoordinator & with the improved offense. Zack annexed is a lot better also & Tanner Morgan will be backup. Gophers have 2 of the top WR's in BigTen, nation. One of the best running backs & online which featured Daniel faleele and Curtis Dunlap who gophers beat out major schools such as Alabama & Georgia Bulldogs for. They changed the oline in a big way
Nebraska fan listeningto a Minnesota fan talking about how scary good they'll be (replace Mufasa with Minnesota)! LOL Get the picture?

 

Full Measures

Newbie
Jun 14, 2013
12
8
3
The ESPN Preview Bill Connelly wrote was well done. As a fan of MInnesota, he pretty much nailed it. They did play either like a top 20 team or a bottom 50 team. In a lot of ways N and Minnesota are similar as far as team trajectory. There is a ton of optimism in Dinkytown right now and in the last 12 months (you could argue the last 4 games of 2018) Fleck went from 'the blowhard' to this guy might actually have something here.

After years and years (decades now in my case) you start looking at all these previews with a grain of salt. The question should really be what is most likely to happen? Is AM most likely to play at a Heisman level or not? Is he most likely to stay healthy throughout the B1G season or miss some time? Is the defense most likely to improve? etc., etc., etc.

All of the ingredients are there for the Gophers to be good. Returning production, lines improved throughout the year, 3 best players on roster back from injury in 2019, top end B1G players on 0 and D. (their QB situation is most likely to be in the middle of the pack vs. near the bottom) I don't know enough about N other than they are the media darlings. Question marks for every team this time of year. Perhaps it's warranted?

The Minnesota line was around 6 when they first came out. I'm seeing around 7.5 now. Probably more than you guys care to know about the Gophers, but there you go.

I do hope N puts the hammer down on Iowa and Wisky.
 
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huskerssalts

Defensive Coordinator
Oct 6, 2014
7,150
7,124
113
40
Beatrice Nebraska
Iowa can still beat us. I hope you're right that we don't lose, but they will have an awfully good D.
Agreed, Iowa defense will still be solid to good. But in my opinion their defense will take a little step backwards...not much but a little step. They lost a lot and every starter on the Dline (while Epenesa should have been a starter to begin with...that was just a stupid move having him ride the pine). Then on offense they lose 3 starters on the Oline, two first round draft pick TEs and their best WR. So my view of this game is that Iowa takes an overall step back wards and the Huskers should take an overall step forward...then going off of last years game at Iowa City and it taking Iowa a last second FG to beat us....you’d have to assume that gives the Huskers an edge in Lincoln Nebraska. I just don’t see the Huskers losing this year to Iowa...could happen yes but I don’t think it will. GBR
 

NorthwoodHusker

Blackshirt
Jun 20, 2019
3,477
1,632
113
The ESPN Preview Bill Connelly wrote was well done. As a fan of MInnesota, he pretty much nailed it. They did play either like a top 20 team or a bottom 50 team. In a lot of ways N and Minnesota are similar as far as team trajectory. There is a ton of optimism in Dinkytown right now and in the last 12 months (you could argue the last 4 games of 2018) Fleck went from 'the blowhard' to this guy might actually have something here.

After years and years (decades now in my case) you start looking at all these previews with a grain of salt. The question should really be what is most likely to happen? Is AM most likely to play at a Heisman level or not? Is he most likely to stay healthy throughout the B1G season or miss some time? Is the defense most likely to improve? etc., etc., etc.

All of the ingredients are there for the Gophers to be good. Returning production, lines improved throughout the year, 3 best players on roster back from injury in 2019, top end B1G players on 0 and D. (their QB situation is most likely to be in the middle of the pack vs. near the bottom) I don't know enough about N other than they are the media darlings. Question marks for every team this time of year. Perhaps it's warranted?

The Minnesota line was around 6 when they first came out. I'm seeing around 7.5 now. Probably more than you guys care to know about the Gophers, but there you go.

I do hope N puts the hammer down on Iowa and Wisky.
Minny will be good, dont care for him, but Fleck is a good coach.
But, as to the win against wiscy, see this
https://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400876110
Two things about this game. W. Mich played wiscy very close,where Fleck was coach. Somewhat of a surprise, but then again, a huge disappointment.
The second thing, and the reason for the disappointment, w mich was higher rated than wiscy, and lost.
Fleck already knew wiscy well, so, its no surprise after wiscy was wounded he beat them soundly, as his team was gelling.
It is what it is, a good coach with a few good pieces, no one will take them lightly, now, lets see how they hold up.
 

pawildcat

Newbie
Sep 15, 2006
98
81
18
Minnesota fired DCoordinator after Illinois game. After this only game lost was northwestern due to interceptions thrown by Morgan. Minnesota is a lot better & you wont come into Minnesota & trash the gophers under this DCoordinator & with the improved offense. Zack annexed is a lot better also & Tanner Morgan will be backup. Gophers have 2 of the top WR's in BigTen, nation. One of the best running backs & online which featured Daniel faleele and Curtis Dunlap who gophers beat out major schools such as Alabama & Georgia Bulldogs for. They changed the oline in a big way
Always love fans (and they can be found in all fan bases) who are only losing games because their QB throws interceptions etc. Part of playing football well is avoiding turnovers. Gee, if our offense had scored more points we would have won the game!