Big Ten 2024 preview: Is this Ohio State's year or could newcomers challenge the league's powers
What's ahead in the Big Ten in 2024? We break down the best players and games and title odds in the league.
Big Ten 2024 Preview: Breaking Down Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Oregon, Penn State, more
by Bill Connelly, ESPN.com
It's top-heavy, it's a geographical disaster and it's basically the richest conference in college sports. The new-look, 18-team Big Ten, spanning from Los Angeles and Seattle to New York(ish) and Washington, D.C.(ish), will make its debut this fall, whether we're ready for it or not. It boasts both of last year's College Football Playoff National Championship participants (Michigan and Washington) and four of the top seven or so teams in the country. Depth is as tenuous as ever, but the big games will be huge.
That's enough small talk, though. We've got 18 teams to talk about. Let's preview the very Big Ten!
2023 Recap
The top five teams in this new Big Ten went 6-6 against each other and 56-2 against everyone else in college football last season. Oregon lost only two devastatingly tight games to Washington; Washington was a close-game master but got thumped by Michigan in the national title game; Penn State lost only to Michigan and Ohio State, as is customary, until a bowl loss to another to-10ish team (Ole Miss) in the Peach Bowl; Ohio State lost a third straight to Michigan but ran the table until, with some key offensive pieces missing, it lost to another top-10ish team (Missouri) in the Cotton Bowl.
Iowa snared a Big Ten championship game bid in the conference's last year with divisions, but the Hawkeyes were the only team to stand out in a glut of five- to eight-win teams.
In all, the Big Ten boasted seven of the top 11 defenses in the country and only four of the top 29 offenses. But if you watched Big Ten football last year, you had probably already sussed that one out.
2024 Projections
It feels like a letdown to say that only four of the 18 teams are genuine title contenders in the Big Ten race -- it definitely tamps down the number of huge games -- but can you make the case for someone outside of the top four? I certainly can't, though a mashup of USC's offense and Iowa's defense would produce the best team in the country.
Maybe the most interesting projection above is Washington. The Huskies won 14 games and were an absolute delight from top to bottom, but they return almost none of last year's key figures. Head coach Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama, and only two -- two! -- starters return. New head coach Jedd Fisch did incredible things in a short span of time at Arizona, and he has certainly used the portal to import a lot of other teams' starters, but he had to start from scratch, and SP+ isn't much of a believer in national title game aura. You could make the case that projecting the Huskies 35th is actually a little ambitious.
I'm just saying, James Franklin, now would be a pretty good time to get everything figured out. Franklin and Penn State drew only one of the three other projected top-10 teams (Ohio State) and play only one projected top-25 team on the road. The Nittany Lions have experience and two intriguing new coordinators, and ... yes, I've said a lot of these things before.
Five best games of 2024
Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.
Ohio State at Oregon (Oct. 12)
It's a bit melodramatic to say that we blew up an entire conference for one game, but ... this one's going to be awfully big. These teams have met only 10 times -- once in the national title game (an Ohio State win), twice in the Rose Bowl (both Ohio State wins), seven times as nonconference foes (with six games in Columbus and six Ohio State wins) -- but with last year's national title game teams facing so much turnover, the new Big Ten era starts with these two programs as the bell cows.
Ohio State at Penn State -and- Oregon at Michigan (Nov. 2)
Well this is a hell of a day, isn't it? Penn State gets a shot at its biggest win since about 2016, and Michigan, which will have faced a pillow-soft schedule to this point besides its Week 2 visit from Texas (and will therefore likely be 7-1 at worst), gets a grand opportunity to prove that the defending champ is still a major contender.
USC at UCLA (Nov. 23)
Both of these teams start out ranked in the 20s, with USC trotting out a new quarterback and defensive coordinator and UCLA hiring a rookie head coach. But there's at least a chance that this one has some CFP at-large stakes to add to its status as the rivalry game with the prettiest combination of uniform colors.
Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 30)
Ohio State faces all three of the conference's other top-10 teams, but in terms of both stakes and existential crises, The Game still stands out.
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Conference Title and/or CFP contenders
Ohio State
Oregon
Michigan
Penn State
A couple of breaks (OK, maybe a few) away from a run
USC
Iowa
UCLA
Wisconsin
Washington
Nebraska
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Maryland
Minnesota
Rutgers
Illinois
Purdue
Northwestern
Michigan State
Indiana
by Bill Connelly, ESPN.com
It's top-heavy, it's a geographical disaster and it's basically the richest conference in college sports. The new-look, 18-team Big Ten, spanning from Los Angeles and Seattle to New York(ish) and Washington, D.C.(ish), will make its debut this fall, whether we're ready for it or not. It boasts both of last year's College Football Playoff National Championship participants (Michigan and Washington) and four of the top seven or so teams in the country. Depth is as tenuous as ever, but the big games will be huge.
That's enough small talk, though. We've got 18 teams to talk about. Let's preview the very Big Ten!
2023 Recap
| Team | Record | Final SP+ Rank |
| Michigan | 15-0 (10-0) | 31.3 (1) |
| Oregon (Pac-12) | 12-2 (8-2) | 26.2 (3) |
| Ohio State | 11-2 (8-1) | 25.2 (4) |
| Penn State | 10-3 (7-2) | 23.5 (5) |
| Washington (Pac-12) | 14-1 (10-0) | 16.4 (13) |
| Maryland | 8-5 (4-5) | 11.0 (21) |
| UCLA (Pac-12) | 8-5 (4-5) | 9.7 (27) |
| Wisconsin | 7-6 (5-4) | 9.4 (29) |
| USC (Pac-12) | 8-5 (5-4) | 9.4 (31) |
| Iowa | 10-4 (7-3) | 5.8 (47) |
| Rutgers | 7-6 (3-6) | 3.5 (56) |
| Minnesota | 6-7 (3-6) | 0.4 (63) |
| Nebraska | 5-7 (3-6) | 0.3 (66) |
| Northwestern | 8-5 (5-4) | -1.3 (69) |
| Illinois | 5-7 (3-6) | -2.5 (75) |
| Michigan State | 4-8 (2-7) | -6.8 (88) |
| Purdue | 4-8 (3-6) | -7.3 (90) |
| Indiana | 3-9 (1-8) | -7.4 (92) |
The top five teams in this new Big Ten went 6-6 against each other and 56-2 against everyone else in college football last season. Oregon lost only two devastatingly tight games to Washington; Washington was a close-game master but got thumped by Michigan in the national title game; Penn State lost only to Michigan and Ohio State, as is customary, until a bowl loss to another to-10ish team (Ole Miss) in the Peach Bowl; Ohio State lost a third straight to Michigan but ran the table until, with some key offensive pieces missing, it lost to another top-10ish team (Missouri) in the Cotton Bowl.
Iowa snared a Big Ten championship game bid in the conference's last year with divisions, but the Hawkeyes were the only team to stand out in a glut of five- to eight-win teams.
In all, the Big Ten boasted seven of the top 11 defenses in the country and only four of the top 29 offenses. But if you watched Big Ten football last year, you had probably already sussed that one out.
2024 Projections
| Team | SP+ Projection |
| Ohio State | 32.7 (2) |
| Oregon | 30.8 (3) |
| Michigan | 27.5 (6) |
| Penn State | 26.8 (7) |
| USC | 13.6 (21) |
| Iowa | 13.2 (22) |
| UCLA | 11.3 (26) |
| Wisconsin | 10.8 (27) |
| Washington | 9.1 (35) |
| Nebraska | 7.1 (40) |
| Maryland | 5.0 (44) |
| Minnesota | 4.8 (45) |
| Rutgers | 3.9 (49) |
| Illinois | -1.3 (66) |
| Purdue | -3.0 (72) |
| Northwestern | -3.4 (74) |
| Michigan State | -4.9 (82) |
| Indiana | -5.7 (85) |
It feels like a letdown to say that only four of the 18 teams are genuine title contenders in the Big Ten race -- it definitely tamps down the number of huge games -- but can you make the case for someone outside of the top four? I certainly can't, though a mashup of USC's offense and Iowa's defense would produce the best team in the country.
Maybe the most interesting projection above is Washington. The Huskies won 14 games and were an absolute delight from top to bottom, but they return almost none of last year's key figures. Head coach Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama, and only two -- two! -- starters return. New head coach Jedd Fisch did incredible things in a short span of time at Arizona, and he has certainly used the portal to import a lot of other teams' starters, but he had to start from scratch, and SP+ isn't much of a believer in national title game aura. You could make the case that projecting the Huskies 35th is actually a little ambitious.
I'm just saying, James Franklin, now would be a pretty good time to get everything figured out. Franklin and Penn State drew only one of the three other projected top-10 teams (Ohio State) and play only one projected top-25 team on the road. The Nittany Lions have experience and two intriguing new coordinators, and ... yes, I've said a lot of these things before.
Five best games of 2024
Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.
Ohio State at Oregon (Oct. 12)
It's a bit melodramatic to say that we blew up an entire conference for one game, but ... this one's going to be awfully big. These teams have met only 10 times -- once in the national title game (an Ohio State win), twice in the Rose Bowl (both Ohio State wins), seven times as nonconference foes (with six games in Columbus and six Ohio State wins) -- but with last year's national title game teams facing so much turnover, the new Big Ten era starts with these two programs as the bell cows.
Ohio State at Penn State -and- Oregon at Michigan (Nov. 2)
Well this is a hell of a day, isn't it? Penn State gets a shot at its biggest win since about 2016, and Michigan, which will have faced a pillow-soft schedule to this point besides its Week 2 visit from Texas (and will therefore likely be 7-1 at worst), gets a grand opportunity to prove that the defending champ is still a major contender.
USC at UCLA (Nov. 23)
Both of these teams start out ranked in the 20s, with USC trotting out a new quarterback and defensive coordinator and UCLA hiring a rookie head coach. But there's at least a chance that this one has some CFP at-large stakes to add to its status as the rivalry game with the prettiest combination of uniform colors.
Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 30)
Ohio State faces all three of the conference's other top-10 teams, but in terms of both stakes and existential crises, The Game still stands out.
==============================
Conference Title and/or CFP contenders
Ohio State
Oregon
Michigan
Penn State
A couple of breaks (OK, maybe a few) away from a run
USC
Iowa
UCLA
Wisconsin
Washington
Nebraska
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Maryland
Minnesota
Rutgers
Illinois
Purdue
Northwestern
Michigan State
Indiana
