Dreamers unite!

[k9_r]

We are at RPI 39 and SOS 50 with a poor resume. We are a bubble 'out' team needing so much help from the field we have almost no chance for a bid. Scratch us, right?

Well, there is always the AQ spot. Win the B1G tourney and we're in. Funny thing is, if we go 4-0 our RPI and SOS will improve so dramatically we won't need the AQ. RPI should rise to 20-ish and SOS to 30-ish. Those are good numbers and four wins vs T50 would help a lot.

3-1 is not too bad either. Should move RPI to ~25 and SOS stays 30-ish. 2-2 makes it 30-ish RPI as well. More solidly on the bubble. We can still make it interesting for the committee.

And I like to think our competitive efforts at Illinois just might carry over into the B1G tournament.

 

[coolonetoo]

I'm in!

Naturally, the most important game is Wednesday. Snapping Illinois' win streak would clearly make the biggest splash and have the most RPI impact. And it would mean not facing the Illini again unless it's on Sunday.

 

[bigredrl]

We are at RPI 39 and SOS 50 with a poor resume. We are a bubble 'out' team needing so much help from the field we have almost no chance for a bid. Scratch us, right?

Well, there is always the AQ spot. Win the B1G tourney and we're in. Funny thing is, if we go 4-0 our RPI and SOS will improve so dramatically we won't need the AQ. RPI should rise to 20-ish and SOS to 30-ish. Those are good numbers and four wins vs T50 would help a lot.

3-1 is not too bad either. Should move RPI to ~25 and SOS stays 30-ish. 2-2 makes it 30-ish RPI as well. More solidly on the bubble. We can still make it interesting for the committee.

And I like to think our competitive efforts at Illinois just might carry over into the B1G tournament.

I know you’re a big believer the selection committee is a slave to RPI/SOS and conference record means very little…..and not saying you’re wrong. Obviously some different thoughts out there and I saw someone post some comments from D1 baseball that state otherwise. Who knows for sure and hopefully we have an opportunity to find out! However, I just don’t see how we get there outside of the AQ.

• Just don’t see how 2-2 even gets us in the discussion. Think we are solidly out and not even discussed.
• 3-1 could make it interesting, but still out I think.

Just too much to overcome:

• Poor overall conference record in an average conference
• Terrible conference record against the better teams in our own league (swept by Illinois, Iowa, and Maryland if I recall correctly)
• Terrible recent conference performance over the last 3 weeks (3-3 against the bottom of our league along with Illinois performance)

It was there for the taking. Find a way to go 5-1 against NW and Purdue and win 1 game against Illinois and I probably would have said we were a lock barring a 0-2 B1G tournament. We have simply been to underwhelming as of late and I think that will weigh heavily on the committee.

 

[k9_r]

I know you’re a big believer the selection committee is a slave to RPI/SOS and conference record means very little…..and not saying you’re wrong. Obviously some different thoughts out there and I saw someone post some comments from D1 baseball that state otherwise. Who knows for sure and hopefully we have an opportunity to find out! However, I just don’t see how we get there outside of the AQ.

• Just don’t see how 2-2 even gets us in the discussion. Think we are solidly out and not even discussed.
• 3-1 could make it interesting, but still out I think.

Just too much to overcome:

• Poor overall conference record in an average conference
• Terrible conference record against the better teams in our own league (swept by Illinois, Iowa, and Maryland if I recall correctly)
• Terrible recent conference performance over the last 3 weeks (3-3 against the bottom of our league along with Illinois performance)

It was there for the taking. Find a way to go 5-1 against NW and Purdue and win 1 game against Illinois and I probably would have said we were a lock barring a 0-2 B1G tournament. We have simply been to underwhelming as of late and I think that will weigh heavily on the committee.

Gotta say, I pretty much agree with this. And I admit to bring a rabid fan, never say die type. Well, unless it's time to die, so to speak. When the chances are exhausted and it's all over I hang it up and wait for next year. But if there is a thin reed of hope..., I'll find it.

Here's what I'm saying..
4-0 = AQ bid. But we would also have an excellent RPI and be fully qualified for an at-large bid just like one of the dozen or so other top AQ teams. Probably a two seed.

3-1 = Top 25 RPI and an improved resume. Committee would be challenged to exclude us and it would come down to how well other bubble teams' resumes match up to us. Thing to remember is, all bubble teams have resume problems, right? And most of them have not so good RPIs. T 25 RPI would speak well for us.

2-2 = Need help. T 35 RPI but too much drag from our resume. But, again, bubble teams all have problems. Bubble "in", bubble "out", makes no difference. If the majority of those disappoint in this last week we could get in. Need help.

Small quibble, I don't think the committee is a total slave to RPI, but they're right next door to one. Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1999, the committee and RPI have done this...
99.5% of T 25 teams got in
95.9% of T 35 teams got in
95.8% of T 45 teams got in.
D1B article - http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/etheridge-looking-at-national-seeds-and-rpi/

Seems fair to give heavy weight to RPI. Maybe they don't but it sure looks like it.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

I know you’re a big believer the selection committee is a slave to RPI/SOS and conference record means very little…..and not saying you’re wrong. Obviously some different thoughts out there and I saw someone post some comments from D1 baseball that state otherwise. Who knows for sure and hopefully we have an opportunity to find out! However, I just don’t see how we get there outside of the AQ.

• Just don’t see how 2-2 even gets us in the discussion. Think we are solidly out and not even discussed.
• 3-1 could make it interesting, but still out I think.

Just too much to overcome:

• Poor overall conference record in an average conference
• Terrible conference record against the better teams in our own league (swept by Illinois, Iowa, and Maryland if I recall correctly)
• Terrible recent conference performance over the last 3 weeks (3-3 against the bottom of our league along with Illinois performance)

It was there for the taking. Find a way to go 5-1 against NW and Purdue and win 1 game against Illinois and I probably would have said we were a lock barring a 0-2 B1G tournament. We have simply been to underwhelming as of late and I think that will weigh heavily on the committee.

Agreed. The only way we even have a shot at an at-large bid is to make it to the championship game. Even then there is still too much against us to get us in. The Purdue series loss was a killer. Even 2-1 might have given us a chance. Maybe even one win against Illinois coupled with the Purdue series loss would have given us a chance. But I just don't see how getting a little hot in the B1G tournament would be enough to make up for the last 3 weeks of the conference schedule. It's automatic bid or bust for this team.

 

[bigredrl]

Gotta say, I pretty much agree with this. And I admit to bring a rabid fan, never say die type. Well, unless it's time to die, so to speak. When the chances are exhausted and it's all over I hang it up and wait for next year. But if there is a thin reed of hope..., I'll find it.

Here's what I'm saying..
4-0 = AQ bid. But we would also have an excellent RPI and be fully qualified for an at-large bid just like one of the dozen or so other top AQ teams. Probably a two seed.

3-1 = Top 25 RPI and an improved resume. Committee would be challenged to exclude us and it would come down to how well other bubble teams' resumes match up to us. Thing to remember is, all bubble teams have resume problems, right? And most of them have not so good RPIs. T 25 RPI would speak well for us.

2-2 = Need help. T 35 RPI but too much drag from our resume. But, again, bubble teams all have problems. Bubble "in", bubble "out", makes no difference. If the majority of those disappoint in this last week we could get in. Need help.

Small quibble, I don't think the committee is a total slave to RPI, but they're right next door to one. Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1999, the committee and RPI have done this...
99.5% of T 25 teams got in
95.9% of T 35 teams got in
95.8% of T 45 teams got in.
D1B article - http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/etheridge-looking-at-national-seeds-and-rpi/

Seems fair to give heavy weight to RPI. Maybe they don't but it sure looks like it.

Good data points to pull from and appreciate

Gotta say, I pretty much agree with this. And I admit to bring a rabid fan, never say die type. Well, unless it's time to die, so to speak. When the chances are exhausted and it's all over I hang it up and wait for next year. But if there is a thin reed of hope..., I'll find it.

Here's what I'm saying..
4-0 = AQ bid. But we would also have an excellent RPI and be fully qualified for an at-large bid just like one of the dozen or so other top AQ teams. Probably a two seed.

3-1 = Top 25 RPI and an improved resume. Committee would be challenged to exclude us and it would come down to how well other bubble teams' resumes match up to us. Thing to remember is, all bubble teams have resume problems, right? And most of them have not so good RPIs. T 25 RPI would speak well for us.

2-2 = Need help. T 35 RPI but too much drag from our resume. But, again, bubble teams all have problems. Bubble "in", bubble "out", makes no difference. If the majority of those disappoint in this last week we could get in. Need help.

Small quibble, I don't think the committee is a total slave to RPI, but they're right next door to one. Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1999, the committee and RPI have done this...
99.5% of T 25 teams got in
95.9% of T 35 teams got in
95.8% of T 45 teams got in.
D1B article - http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/etheridge-looking-at-national-seeds-and-rpi/

Seems fair to give heavy weight to RPI. Maybe they don't but it sure looks like it.

Good data and certainly understand the logic. I wonder how many top 35 RPI teams outside the top conferences make it in with a conference record like ours? If we had this record in a top 4 or 5 RPI conference I would give us a fighting chance........but in the B1G not so much.

 

[k9_r]

Good data and certainly understand the logic. I wonder how many top 35 RPI teams outside the top conferences make it in with a conference record like ours? If we had this record in a top 4 or 5 RPI conference I would give us a fighting chance........but in the B1G not so much.

We know who the 23 T 35 teams are who did not get in these past 16 years but not the reasons for their exclusion.

Conference record - major hurdle for us. ACC AND SEC will get a couple losing records in but they get a lot of bids, right? Donno what the committee will do with us if we're 3-1 in Minneapolis and a T 25 RPI. But pretty sure we'll have a strong case by other criteria.

 

[btruhe]

We also don't know whether the committee will see 4-5 B1G teams getting already as an indicator that more may be qualified or whether they'll think that's an awful lot for a conference traditionally not very strong in CBB and thus cap it at those who are probably in (IL, IA, tOSU, MD, MI/MSU).

My guess is either we win it all, or we're done.