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Covid 6.0

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I think older people are stubborn because they think that they have been through so much already and that this is overblown. They’ve been through west nile, Zika, Swine Flu, Ebola, smallpox, etc. They probably think that since they made it through all that, this isn’t a big deal. My parents are elderly and just came back from wintering in Arizona recently. We got a shopping list from them so they wouldn’t have to go shopping when they got back. I asked them again the next week if they needed anything and they told me that they had already been to the store. I was like, “mom, you guys don’t need to go the the store” and they were like it was no big deal. It’s the way some of them are wired.
No, when you're older, you've already lost things, aren't as fast,as strong, you have nowheres near the wind.
Keeping what you can do is simply more important.
 
I've had extended family members in significant contact with people who have tested positive. They were tested and it came back negative.

Should precautions be taken for those most at risk? Sure. But this isn't near the death sentence the media or some medical personnel are making it out to be.

Lets use the treatments others are using to help people who have it get over it as fast as possible. We won't be able to save everyone, but we never were able to do that.
Partly, the lower death rate is due to cares. Having a ventilator or not saves lives. Being intubated isn't a death sentence.
 
The "flatten the curve" idea is one of the dumbest ones out there.

Because of America's geography the curve is already flatter. You people act like everyone is going to get it at the same time. That's already proven false.
Look, those peaks and valleys are because of distances. Its invisible, not everyone who had it knows it.
They spread it innocently.
Where people have lower people contact, it spreads slower, thats all. Until we test everybody, and everybody who has it is quarantined, every inch of the earth is at risk.
Theres a portion of us who are likely immune, so they will never get it, but everyone else is all too easily capable of getting it.
So, it moves when we move, the closer together we are, the faster person to person it spreads. If you're out in the areas where mans numbers are sparse, it'll just take longer.
 
Just like it made it tough to get herd immunity for H1N1 for which we never made it to even 40%, but with that we had no quarantines or social distancing or curve flattening.

It's almost like the people of America have been frightened into doing something different.

And look at that, a disproportionately higher number of people over the age of 65 impacted.

To calculate the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (pH1N1) in the United States, we extrapolated from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infections Program laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations across the entire United States, and then corrected for underreporting. From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, we estimate that approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. Eighty-seven percent of deaths occurred in those under 65 years of age with children and working adults having risks of hospitalization and death 4 to 7 times and 8 to 12 times greater, respectively, than estimates of impact due to seasonal influenza covering the years 1976-2001. In our study, adults 65 years of age or older were found to have rates of hospitalization and death that were up to 75% and 81%, respectively, lower than seasonal influenza. These results confirm the necessity of a concerted public health response to pH1N1.

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm
Theres thoughts that this flu was partially ineffective because of prior buildup of similar flus in the elderly.
While I remember reading this as possibilities,I have no links.
It's possible those older may have been infected at some point and still had antibodies in small amounts, whereas newer ,or younger generations didn't Thus, its effects were greater.

Which bring me around to two huge points. One is, this is a novel virus, a brand new strain, and why older vaccines have no effects.
And two, the first one you are talking about, it was simply not as infectious, much harder to get.
 
Look, those peaks and valleys are because of distances. Its invisible, not everyone who had it knows it.
They spread it innocently.
Where people have lower people contact, it spreads slower, thats all. Until we test everybody, and everybody who has it is quarantined, every inch of the earth is at risk.
Theres a portion of us who are likely immune, so they will never get it, but everyone else is all too easily capable of getting it.
So, it moves when we move, the closer together we are, the faster person to person it spreads. If you're out in the areas where mans numbers are sparse, it'll just take longer.

Agreed. The midwest is no more out of woods than anyone else. I talked with my mom several hours this weekend, she was saying the docs at Nebraska Med Center were concerned that while the overall case load will be lower in the rural areas, rural areas are also far less able to cope with a spike in cases. For even "normal" health problems, its pretty much standard practice for rural folks to travel to bigger areas for specific care.
 
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Except we're not. People can come and go from their houses as they please. The man from the govt is not standing at the end of the block asking to see your papers.

Still waiting on your "travel pass" information.
They have sent out papers,termed essential persons, good through may 8th, and no,Im not essential.
Issued from the homeland security office.
As a republic, each state has its rights to keep people at home, but these papers supersede those local laws.
 
If 20% of the population gets it, and 1% of those individuals die....... How many deaths is that? In my head I am getting 600,000. That is a pretty significant amount of caskets for something that most were shrugging off a month ago.

That's because you're equating getting it with the people who have currently tested positive and extrapolating that number. Same faulty math others continue to do. Do you think we're going to do 66 million+ tests?

Also - heart disease kills 650K a year in the US. Our resident medical guy said those were insignificant.

For what it's worth the models they're using now show about a 1/3 of that by the end of the year. It will most likely be a lot less.
 
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They have sent out papers,termed essential persons, good through may 8th, and no,Im not essential.
Issued from the homeland security office.
As a republic, each state has its rights to keep people at home, but these papers supersede those local laws.

I believe you have your information mixed up on this. But provide a link. Let's take a look.
 
Triple derivative negative third day in a row
Second derivative was negative today.

Not really sure what impact weekend has on these numbers.
 
Your numbers are garbage.

You have no idea the "infection rate" for people over 60.
You have no idea the "death rate"

All of that is a baloney guesstimate.

You tried to tell me 30% of people are asymptomatic.

Usually you do better.
We have pandemic models. Just take the flu for example...which is less contagious. Every year 10% of the population gets sick...a large portion are asymptomatic as well but we never count them. That is 30-50 million infections...600000 hospitalizations and 50-80k deaths. Every piece of data says Covid is at least 10x more severe than the flu and 2x more contagious. So 20-25% is a good estimate with death rates that are already built in Italy, Spain, China, USA.

50-60=2%
60-70=7%
70-80=15%
80+=20%

You have to remember that the regions that have been infected are still a very small portion of our globe. Hubai is about 3% of China's population, New York City is about 2% of America, Lombardy is about 15% of Italy...these clusters of 5-10k dead pop-up in different places until we have a vaccine or wait for enough people to die. That is why Pandemic=bad.

If Lombardy is a model..then a region of 10 million can expect about 20k deaths in its 8 week burnout...Lombardy is hella old, but so is most of America, and Lombardy has better hospitals than anywhere in America. How many regions of 10 million are in America...33...not everywhere will be like Lombardy but New York is still 2 weeks from peek and it has 1000 deaths...it will like have 8-10k in its 8 week hell.
 
On another subject, those in Omaha, opinions on the County/Mayor’s PC today? I was sort of turned off by the officials complaining about the amount of vehicles at the box stores.

Go figure, on a nice Sunday, people went to the Walmarts? I’m shocked. There’s only so many places to get groceries.

Then the complaining about the Home Depot’s, Lowe’s, and Menards. They do sell cleaning equipment there. And again, there’s only so many of them. People who are calling for those stores to limit the number of shoppers in the store at one time? So what happens to the social distancing of those waiting in the long lines to get in the stores?
 
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The ability of the virus to reach a critical "minimum infective dose" in situations where you maintain the 6 ft zone is very limited. I guarantee you that every person at that soccer game violated that principle. The virus may remain airborne for a while but unless you're in a confined place for a fair amount of time with a shedder your risk is very low. Airflow and distance are important. . Pictures like the people standing in line at airport security is horrifying as far as transmission goes. Standing 6 feet away from someone who isn't coughing at you shouldn't worry anyone.
New studies are pointing to THIS virus being able to travel 20-30 meters in a cough...and it is able to pass easily through hospital ventilation systems. It CAN stay suspended for 3 hours but that isn't needed in vestibules and entrances and exits where people are coming in...there are videos online that show the amount of spray that comes from the mouth of a talking person and how much stays in aerosol form. I feel comfortable taking the crazy side of the argument because this thing obviously shows it can spread really easily. Now, I do think you need a huge amount of virus to get symptoms and many people are being inoculated in these aerosol situations. I wouldn't want to take the chance though if I was elderly or had any underlying conditions like about 100 million in our country. I am also blown away by the almost 5000 medical professionals infected in Italy...I know they are breaking the 6 foot rule but they are trained to evade germs and this thing is knocking them out left and right.
 
On another subject, those in Omaha, opinions on the County/Mayor’s PC today? I was sort of turned off by the officials complaining about the amount of vehicles at the box stores.

Go figure, on a nice Sunday, people went to the Walmarts? I’m shocked. There’s only so many places to get groceries.

Then the complaining about the Home Depot’s, Lowe’s, and Menards. They do sell cleaning equipment there. And again, there’s only so many of them. People who are calling for those stores to limit the number of shoppers in the store at one time? So what happens to the social distancing of those waiting in the long lines to get in the stores?

I wouldn't worry about it, the virus will handle it. I bet by Easter we won't have to worry about so many in Omaha congregating. Omaha has 60 cases...The United States had 60 cases exactly one month ago. Obviously not a direct comparison but absent any lockdown or decent isolation measures Omaha is going to explode...especially considering Iowa has 350 cases. There are a bunch of stupid things going on...the government is telling us we need 2 weeks food at least...but then they say not to stockpile, they say masks are not needed, except when you need them..so basically it was smart to stockpile so when infections rise you can isolate, it was smart to stockpile masks, except our government didn't think to do it first. They use expired masks all the time...could have millions stockpiled.
 
I live in Louisiana, work in healthcare, it’s pretty rough down here right now. Would encourage all to take this seriously, there are no words to describe how fast these patients go bad. The clinical patterns for most positive patients (presenting to the ER) are very similar. “It” has gotten to the point - you don’t really need the test to diagnose a positive. Trying to compare this to the flu is very shortsighted.

Please believe me when I tell you this is a nasty virus. Don’t think the aged are the only ones being taken prisoner. I know most on this board are strongly opinionated,some of the responses I’ve read are about as frightening as the virus. Wish I hadn’t seen some of the things I’ve seen the last few weeks. When the movies eventually come out, they’re gonna scare the crap out of you.

stay safe all - lb
 
Except we're not. People can come and go from their houses as they please. The man from the govt is not standing at the end of the block asking to see your papers.

Still waiting on your "travel pass" information.

I have mine issued by our CEO...I work remote during our lockdown , but if SHTF I am cleared to travel as needed per DHS and CISA as part of our nations critical infrastructure.
 
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I live in Louisiana, work in healthcare, it’s pretty rough down here right now. Would encourage all to take this seriously, there are no words to describe how fast these patients go bad. The clinical patterns for most positive patients (presenting to the ER) are very similar. “It” has gotten to the point - you don’t really need the test to diagnose a positive. Trying to compare this to the flu is very shortsighted.

Please believe me when I tell you this is a nasty virus. Don’t think the aged are the only ones being taken prisoner. I know most on this board are strongly opinionated,some of the responses I’ve read are about as frightening as the virus. Wish I hadn’t seen some of the things I’ve seen the last few weeks. When the movies eventually come out, they’re gonna scare the crap out of you.

stay safe all - lb

Thanks for the insight. Prayers for all our medical professionals who are doing battle with this thing.
 
Yeah my company did the same thing.

Pretty sure it has no legal standing. But I'm not a lawyer.

On there it has message stating that whomever is questioning my actions can call my boss. Lol, do you think the cops are going to give a $#!& What my boss says?

He never answers his phone anyway lol.
 
Theres thoughts that this flu was partially ineffective because of prior buildup of similar flus in the elderly.
While I remember reading this as possibilities,I have no links.
It's possible those older may have been infected at some point and still had antibodies in small amounts, whereas newer ,or younger generations didn't Thus, its effects were greater.

Which bring me around to two huge points. One is, this is a novel virus, a brand new strain, and why older vaccines have no effects.
And two, the first one you are talking about, it was simply not as infectious, much harder to get.

60 million infected. 274K hospitalized. 12K dead.

It wasn't ineffective.
 
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Yeah my company did the same thing.

Pretty sure it has no legal standing. But I'm not a lawyer.

On there it has message stating that whomever is questioning my actions can call my boss. Lol, do you think the cops are going to give a $#!& What my boss says?

He never answers his phone anyway lol.
I'm pretty sure,if it's DHS issued, you're wrong.
I have a son in law issued by employer too, but there are other issued directly through DHS
 
On this DHS essential worker thing, there are several things, the most common are deemed essential commerce issued by need.
There are other categories, but this is by far the largest.
When you have Fla,La etc shutting their borders, plus conneticut etc, you have to have reason to enter from certain states or sometimes, any state.
 
Local / State governments are going to need to do a better job clarifying these "Shelter in Place" guidelines. It seems like a recommendation, yet they are enforcing by fines? Not sure that is legal, but I could be wrong as I am not a lawyer. With that said, unless you are in a hot zone, you probably won't even encounter this.
 
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