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Covid-19 updates and analysis (long)

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well heck, one can't believe anything that is posted out there anymore I guess.

there is always something else posted that contradicts it.. doesn't have to be COVID related either..

I guess sports game outcomes are the only thing factual these days..





(yes, I'm waiting for the next post to disprove that one too)
 
I think you are totally off base if wondering that the shut down has something to do with the Minneapolis happenings. This is at least the third death of a black man at the hands of the police in Minneapolis in the past five years that was highly suspect on the police officers part. I have a daughter, sister, nephews and nieces that live in the metro. They are not liberals but the believe that at least two of there deaths were the responsibility of the police and were police profiling.

I think you are totally off base if you think it didn't have at least something to do with it. How much? Who knows...but did people riot the other two times you mentioned this happened? Riot like what we're seeing now? If not......
 
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But in other ways, Bob’s final illness was just part of a long string of sicknesses. Over the two decades since his retirement, he had had a stroke. He also had had cancer in his mouth, colon and liver. There was scarring — fibrosis — that had damaged his lungs and forced him onto supplemental oxygen. The radiation treatments that had cured his cancers years ago had also left him with nerve damage in his legs and a slowly eroding jawbone. Bob was not the picture of health.

Doesnt sound like it would have taken much to do in this guy. A common cold might have done the trick just as well. I think it is important to remember that the 100,000 covid deaths are not in addition to normally expected deaths. In fact, according to the CDC we are barely above our expected deaths ytd (102%).
I think the author's main point was to explain how the methodology behind the numbers work and how that means the number of deaths estimated are probably lower than the actual number. There's probably another Bob that died similarly from the flu that would have died soon anyway, but there is no similar outrage about how flu deaths are being reported.

Keep in mind, flu deaths are an estimate based off of actual numbers multiplied by a certain factor to account for unreported flu deaths. That isn't happening for covid-19 yet.
 
There's been plenty of similar riots in the nation's pre-covid past. I would argue that the crisis undoubtedly made the crowds smaller. How much? Who knows.

Outside of 1967, I couldn't find anything on riots in Minnesota, perhaps there has been, but I don't find it. I also would liken this to why prisons allow inmates to lift weights, walk outside, play basketball, etc. You cannot keep people caged up or cooped up or locked down, they get antsy....they act out. Floyd's death lit the powder keg, and people all over the United States followed suit. That isn't a left or right reaction, it's a human reaction.
 
Outside of 1967, I couldn't find anything on riots in Minnesota, perhaps there has been, but I don't find it. I also would liken this to why prisons allow inmates to lift weights, walk outside, play basketball, etc. You cannot keep people caged up or cooped up or locked down, they get antsy....they act out. Floyd's death lit the powder keg, and people all over the United States followed suit. That isn't a left or right reaction, it's a human reaction.

Being human and "cooped up or locked up" doesn't equal rioting in normal people
 
How quickly the Rodney King reaction is forgotten. No quarantine was needed then for the reaction and no quarantine now is responsible for the outbreak of violence!
 
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I'm assuming you're not in health care. This was a terrible year for influenza and pneumonia long before COVID-19 got rolling in our area anyway. I don't care what the CDC estimates. They don't actually count the cases. I had a viral pneumonia as did multiple people I know...and yes some of them were tested and diagnosed with Influenza B as the primary pathogen. Some people assume they had COVID-19 back shortly after the holidays. In fact, most of them had severe respiratory infections that weren't COVID-19 which in many people required medical intervention.
 
well heck, one can't believe anything that is posted out there anymore I guess.

there is always something else posted that contradicts it.. doesn't have to be COVID related either..

I guess sports game outcomes are the only thing factual these days..





(yes, I'm waiting for the next post to disprove that one too)


Just wait "one second" and someone will come up with something

mack.0.png
 
Hospitalizations maybe more so than deaths is a key number. In my state the number of hospitalizations is remaining pretty constant even though the number of positive test results is way up. We've been doing a bunch of workplace screenings and finding a huge number of asymptomatic positives. I'm hearing anywhere from 40 to 80% are asymptomatic within a wide age range. It's still being debated whether those people actually spread the virus and if they do to what degree. Most of our hospitalizations and deaths are coming from nursing homes as I expected way back in January when Marlowe started this topic.
 
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I think the author's main point was to explain how the methodology behind the numbers work and how that means the number of deaths estimated are probably lower than the actual number. There's probably another Bob that died similarly from the flu that would have died soon anyway, but there is no similar outrage about how flu deaths are being reported.

Keep in mind, flu deaths are an estimate based off of actual numbers multiplied by a certain factor to account for unreported flu deaths. That isn't happening for covid-19 yet.
I guess I dont care if they count every death ytd as a covid death. We are still only slightly above our expected deaths ytd. I guess my question would be if it weren't for the coronavirus, would there be 100,000 less deaths this year? That would put us significantly below what would be expected, which would seem odd.
 
I guess I dont care if they count every death ytd as a covid death. We are still only slightly above our expected deaths ytd. I guess my question would be if it weren't for the coronavirus, would there be 100,000 less deaths this year? That would put us significantly below what would be expected, which would seem odd.
A pulmonologist that I "know" thinks that some of the deaths attributed to COVID-19 are actually due to the underlying health circumstances of the patient. In at least some cases the person was on the way out before they contracted COVID from a caregiver. Some are in hospice care. I'm not sure what to make of the death toll from COVID-19.
 
I guess I dont care if they count every death ytd as a covid death. We are still only slightly above our expected deaths ytd. I guess my question would be if it weren't for the coronavirus, would there be 100,000 less deaths this year? That would put us significantly below what would be expected, which would seem odd.
This. And we now have several weeks worth of data to use so it does appear that the people who died already had a high likelihood of dying anyway. Yes that sounds very cold-hearted and no, its not exact science because other causes of death are probably down but it does paint a picture of the actual risk of death and how much it has been elevated.
 
A pulmonologist that I "know" thinks that some of the deaths attributed to COVID-19 are actually due to the underlying health circumstances of the patient. In at least some cases the person was on the way out before they contracted COVID from a caregiver. Some are in hospice care. I'm not sure what to make of the death toll from COVID-19.

I will agree and I’m sure your source would agree that determining illness in people, let alone cause of death is a complex and imperfect science. It can be a chicken and egg argument. People probably died in the early stages related to COVID and weren’t counted. Some people who were suffering and “on the way out” maybe died a week, year or decade early. Micro level is hard, on a macro level we are probably +/- 20-30% with no real way of knowing. Is that good enough? Is it as good as we can do? Either way respiratory illnesses are an issue and we should continue our work on prevention and treatment.
 
A pulmonologist that I "know" thinks that some of the deaths attributed to COVID-19 are actually due to the underlying health circumstances of the patient. In at least some cases the person was on the way out before they contracted COVID from a caregiver. Some are in hospice care. I'm not sure what to make of the death toll from COVID-19.

Man I’m sure glad you “know” a lot of doctors- things that make u go hum......
 
I have a theory that it's going to be much worse this fall. Once they learn more about the virus, how it works and such.. I just have a feeling people are being setup.. probably no one has actually rid themselves of the virus once they got it, and I think there are complications at a later date, and you might see mass numbers of people die, who thought they had beaten the virus.

Why? well if you haven't noticed, I take the contrarian view on everything. It's been proven to me so many times, it is just the way I think anymore.

I hope this doesn't come back to bite people in the ass, I really don't, but I'm not ready to put myself at risk quite yet, and partially because I am susceptible.. male, type A blood, high blood pressure, pre-diabetic.. the standard American med check past 50 I guess.

Anyway, that is my excuse for being more wary than normal of this thing.
Wouldn't be a surprise to have more illness in the fall if the masses try to exist in a germ and virus bubble until then. Immune system might be flabby and out of shape with all that time off.:confused:
 
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Wouldn't be a surprise to have more illness in the fall if the masses try to exist in a germ and virus bubble until then. Immune system might be flabby and out of shape with all that time off.:confused:
Yeah, I don’t think people are trying too hard to live in a bubble from what I’ve seen.
 
Where’s Dr Fauci? Lurk
His message ceased to fit the media's agenda when he said "we can't remain shut down forever". When the numbers for drug and alcohol relapses, suicides and domestic abuse started rolling in he changed his tune. I think he also realized that the stay at home orders weren't doing much. Too many people couldn't stay at home.

My own local nursing home which we thought was COVID free turned out to have it this week when they did mass testing. The test positive person was asymptomatic at the time of the test and none of the workers had been symptomatic as far as they knew.:confused:
 
probably changing his opinion (yet again) that because of the riots “I could easily see the inevitability of this virus Coming back again”
No no no. The idiots..er I mean protestors are all wearing masks. I'm so glad they're wearing masks to protect the rest of us.:rolleyes: It's interesting that the protestors are almost all 20 something white people.
 
No no no. The idiots..er I mean protestors are all wearing masks. I'm so glad they're wearing masks to protect the rest of us.:rolleyes: It's interesting that the protestors are almost all 20 something white people.
those pesky white nationals. ;)
Antifa is it.
 
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