Covid-19 updates and analysis (long)

[jmliehr]

Let's get something straight. POSITIVE FOR THE VIRUS DOES NOT MEAN THAT VIRUS IT IS INFECTIVE. Dead virus will give you a positive test. How much disinfectant do you think they use in a hospital setting? How much disinfectant is an average American using these days? IF you kill the virus it will still show up on a test. One patient in particular spent over 40 days in quarantine AFTER he was recovered because he kept testing positive in his stool samples. That finally ended when they figured out that he was shedding DEAD viral particles in his stool.

Not as much as they should, having walked into cleaned and prepped OR’s yet still seeing the medical waste from the last surgery failed to be cleaned out I laughed every time I heard a local tanning place advertising their beds as “hospital clean”. Working there for over a decade, they are filthy germ infested places.

 

[dinglefritz]

Not as much as they should, having walked into cleaned and prepped OR’s yet still seeing the medical waste from the last surgery failed to be cleaned out I laughed every time I heard a local tanning place advertising their beds as “hospital clean”. Working there for over a decade, they are filthy germ infested places.

Surgery techs can be lazy. Nurses can be lazy. Fortunately at my local hospital they're pretty good.

Animal agriculture gets blamed for antibiotic resistance when in fact it has more to do with our hospitals and the super bugs they breed there. That said, would you want to work in hospital housekeeping? I spent a week in the hospital several years ago and had to point things out to housekeeping just to pick up off the floor as I laid in bed. This was stuff that was in the room when they put me in it. Then they acted miffed as if it wasn't their job. It's virtually impossible to get good help for good jobs let alone a dirty one like cleaning up after slovenly Dr.s and patients. The hospitals could start by not trying to squeeze every last penny out of every employee and start giving performance raises to people who do a good job.

 

[CC_Lemming]

Add all 3 together and the argument could be made it was the best, but for the sake of conversation let's say you're right, and you could absolutely make a great argument for it, I agree 100%........ with a certain event looming in a few months, something had to be done to disrupt it.

nobody gives a sh## about polling on handling of this Corona virus. Polls depend on who pollsters can reach and how they frame/ask the questions. Polls on this topic are worthless. The non-stop bashing of "open it up" governors by CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC and CBS is despicable and influences public opinion. In my daily life I've talked to exactly ONE person who wasn't in favor of opening things back up and his wife has been basically quarantined for 2 months because she works in a nursing home. She works in one of the very view nursing homes in our 5 state area that hasn't been infected yet with COVID-19,

Hmmm...what do all those states have in common? Can't quite put my finger on it??

I thought we had board rules against saying these sort of things? Or do they only apply when others get tired of reading these weak conspiracy theories and the thread gets locked?

 

[dinglefritz]

I thought we had board rules against saying these sort of things? Or do they only apply when others get tired of reading these weak conspiracy theories and the thread gets locked?

the mods have been letting this run in part because of the effect that COVID-19 has had on sports. As long as people keep it respectful of each other and don't go off on rants about politics its been allowed. This is good for the site because it has generated a lot of clicks during a time with a dearth of sports news. IMO, this has been a great go to place for information from all sorts of different sources that I would never have found on my own. That said, context is always needed when somebody posts poll results or medical statistics.

 

[Charlie Marlow]

Sadly, it feels like a few posters have turned these covid threads into a conspiracy-fake-news dumping ground more than anything else lately.

 

[RedMyMind]

Hmmm...what do all those states have in common? Can't quite put my finger on it??

Blue

 

[yort2000]

Interestingly even though testing has ramped up considerably Worldometer still has our total number of new cases continuing to fall. Some news sources shout from the roof tops when there's a one day blip upwards in the daily count, but I never hear a peep out of those braying jackasses about the longer term trends.

"Coronavirus 'disappearing' so fast Oxford vaccine has 'only 50% chance of working'"

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...accine-has-only-50-chance-of-working-11993739



This one from China was April 17, 2020


"China cancels coronavirus clinical trials due to shortage of patients"

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...navirus-clinical-trials-due-shortage-patients

 

[yort2000]

Sadly, it feels like a few posters have turned these covid threads into a conspiracy-fake-news dumping ground more than anything else lately.

Yeah, it sure feels like all of the mainstream medias' fear mongering talking points were a lie.


"Conclusion: In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/324...oIXgzmjjGREL7lzW22XeRRk0NO_Y7rvVl150e4CbMo0cg

 

[NikkiSixx]

Let's get something straight. POSITIVE FOR THE VIRUS DOES NOT MEAN THAT VIRUS IT IS INFECTIVE. Dead virus will give you a positive test. How much disinfectant do you think they use in a hospital setting? How much disinfectant is an average American using these days? IF you kill the virus it will still show up on a test. One patient in particular spent over 40 days in quarantine AFTER he was recovered because he kept testing positive in his stool samples. That finally ended when they figured out that he was shedding DEAD viral particles in his stool.

so a valid test should only be positive for a live virus right? who tests for dead ones?

 

[dinglefritz]

so a valid test should only be positive for a live virus right? who tests for dead ones?

No, they test for the antigens present on the viral capsule. As with many tests for viruses, the test doesn't know if the virus is dead or live. In for instance a Feline Leukemia test your vet might run on your cat, it is assumed that the virus is live if the cat is positive due to the fact that the overwhelming majority of cats will develop disease unless they've been previously vaccinated. In the case of a virus test positive sample taken for instance off a hospital surface I personally would normally assume the virus is dead if for no other reason than the disinfectant residues present on those surfaces from previous cleaning. With an extremely contagious virus as a health care provider you would want to assume the virus is live just to be safe but in reality they're most likely already dead. If nothing else their ability to infect someone would most likely be reduced. Disinfectants like benzylammonium chloride leave residues unless they are rinsed thoroughly from whatever was treated.

Again, a person in the biocontainment unit in Omaha tested positive in his stool samples for over 40 days after his recovery. Turns out they were detecting dead viral particles (doesn't have to be the whole virus). The supposed relapses of patients in South Korea turned out to be the same situation. The people were recovered but developed some other cause of a fever so were retested. Upon further examination they figured out that they were still shedding dead virus.

 

[dinglefritz]

Sadly, it feels like a few posters have turned these covid threads into a conspiracy-fake-news dumping ground more than anything else lately.

Those folks are on vacation now I believe. I've only seen legitimate news stories being posted recently albeit sometimes without context. Overall I think this has been a great discussion and I thank you for starting that first thread.

 

[little a]

No, they test for the antigens present on the viral capsule. As with many tests for viruses, the test doesn't know if the virus is dead or live. In for instance a Feline Leukemia test your vet might run on your cat, it is assumed that the virus is live if the cat is positive due to the fact that the overwhelming majority of cats will develop disease unless they've been previously vaccinated. In the case of a virus test positive sample taken for instance off a hospital surface I personally would normally assume the virus is dead if for no other reason than the disinfectant residues present on those surfaces from previous cleaning. With an extremely contagious virus as a health care provider you would want to assume the virus is live just to be safe but in reality they're most likely already dead. If nothing else their ability to infect someone would most likely be reduced. Disinfectants like benzylammonium chloride leave residues unless they are rinsed thoroughly from whatever was treated.

Again, a person in the biocontainment unit in Omaha tested positive in his stool samples for over 40 days after his recovery. Turns out they were detecting dead viral particles (doesn't have to be the whole virus). The supposed relapses of patients in South Korea turned out to be the same situation. The people were recovered but developed some other cause of a fever so were retested. Upon further examination they figured out that they were still shedding dead virus.

So your saying they were shedding Wuhan Du Du?

 

[NikkiSixx]

No, they test for the antigens present on the viral capsule. As with many tests for viruses, the test doesn't know if the virus is dead or live. In for instance a Feline Leukemia test your vet might run on your cat, it is assumed that the virus is live if the cat is positive due to the fact that the overwhelming majority of cats will develop disease unless they've been previously vaccinated. In the case of a virus test positive sample taken for instance off a hospital surface I personally would normally assume the virus is dead if for no other reason than the disinfectant residues present on those surfaces from previous cleaning. With an extremely contagious virus as a health care provider you would want to assume the virus is live just to be safe but in reality they're most likely already dead. If nothing else their ability to infect someone would most likely be reduced. Disinfectants like benzylammonium chloride leave residues unless they are rinsed thoroughly from whatever was treated.

Again, a person in the biocontainment unit in Omaha tested positive in his stool samples for over 40 days after his recovery. Turns out they were detecting dead viral particles (doesn't have to be the whole virus). The supposed relapses of patients in South Korea turned out to be the same situation. The people were recovered but developed some other cause of a fever so were retested. Upon further examination they figured out that they were still shedding dead virus.

help me out here.. an antigen test, I thought was a blood test to see if a person had developed antigens (immunity) to the virus, thus indicating a positive test at some time in the past.

How does that work when they are testing surfaces or the floor? They aren't doing an antigen test, because well those surfaces can't make antibodies, because the surface and floor aren't living things.

 

[dinglefritz]

help me out here.. an antigen test, I thought was a blood test to see if a person had developed antigens (immunity) to the virus, thus indicating a positive test at some time in the past.

How does that work when they are testing surfaces or the floor? They aren't doing an antigen test, because well those surfaces can't make antibodies, because the surface and floor aren't living things.

Antigens are the protein units present in or on a virus, bacteria or plant material. In the case of a Corona virus they test for the viral antigens present on the capsule. ANTIBODIES (immunoglobulins) are infection fighting glycoproteins they test for to see if you've had exposure to the virus in the past.

 

[yort2000]

so a valid test should only be positive for a live virus right? who tests for dead ones?

This from preliminary results in German study released 4/2/2020. Live coranaviruses have a very short lifespan on surfaces.


"Streeck, who is director of the Institute of Virology at Bonn University, said he was able to detect coronavirus by swabbing remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles.

However, it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs. "This means that we have detected the RNA (or ribonucleic acid, which carries the virus’s genetic information) of 'dead' viruses," Streeck said.

According to his previous research results, he believes "that a door handle can only be infectious if someone has actually coughed in their hand and then reached for it.

"After that, you have to reach for the door handle yourself and touch your face," he said. It is not yet possible to say how long the virus can remain on a door handle because not enough studies have been carried out.

Streeck added: "We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface."


https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/ho...ers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot

 

[dinglefritz]

This from preliminary results in German study released 4/2/2020. Live coranaviruses have a very short lifespan on surfaces.


"Streeck, who is director of the Institute of Virology at Bonn University, said he was able to detect coronavirus by swabbing remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles.

However, it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs. "This means that we have detected the RNA (or ribonucleic acid, which carries the virus’s genetic information) of 'dead' viruses," Streeck said.

According to his previous research results, he believes "that a door handle can only be infectious if someone has actually coughed in their hand and then reached for it.

"After that, you have to reach for the door handle yourself and touch your face," he said. It is not yet possible to say how long the virus can remain on a door handle because not enough studies have been carried out.

Streeck added: "We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface."


https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/ho...ers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot

How long a virus remains viable on a surface no doubt depends somewhat on how much organic matter it was placed there with. I certainly wouldn't go around licking door handles just yet based on that research. In animals if deposited in fecal material, it will last a long time. I would imagine if somebody plastered a giant glob from a cough or sneeze that it might last a matter of hours at least. The virus's lipoprotein capsule's protective function would have to be enhanced by an added layer of sputum surrounding it.

 

[dinglefritz]

Just a heads up. I predict that there will be a MASSIVE increase in new cases and fatalities reported tomorrow by CNN and MSNBC.....of course they'll neglect to mention that the numbers include the numbers for the whole 3 day holiday weekend. The really good news. Worldometer shows ZERO new cases and fatalities today for the U.S.

 

[Baxter48]

Just a heads up. I predict that there will be a MASSIVE increase in new cases and fatalities reported tomorrow by CNN and MSNBC.....of course they'll neglect to mention that the numbers include the numbers for the whole 3 day holiday weekend. The really good news. Worldometer shows ZERO new cases and fatalities today for the U.S.

Don’t forget about the Gestapo Detaining non-mask wearing people

 

[cubsker]

Not as much as they should, having walked into cleaned and prepped OR’s yet still seeing the medical waste from the last surgery failed to be cleaned out I laughed every time I heard a local tanning place advertising their beds as “hospital clean”. Working there for over a decade, they are filthy germ infested places.

Is that why staph spreads a lot at hospitals?

 

[yort2000]

Just a heads up. I predict that there will be a MASSIVE increase in new cases and fatalities reported tomorrow by CNN and MSNBC.....of course they'll neglect to mention that the numbers include the numbers for the whole 3 day holiday weekend. The really good news. Worldometer shows ZERO new cases and fatalities today for the U.S.

Pretty good statistical analysis from this tweeter, highlighting the difference between reporting date and actual date. He has been pretty spot on with his projections, adjusting for increase testing, etc. I hope his projections for deaths caused by lockdown don't come to fruition though.

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic

 

[jmliehr]

Is that why staph spreads a lot at hospitals?

Yep, and C. Diff. Turns out a bunch of sick people in a common area spreads infections.

 

[yort2000]

Hmm.....you don't say.


"Cuomo: NY coronavirus projections ‘all wrong,’"

https://www.newsbreak.com/new-york/...ong-too-early-to-tell-if-reopening-is-working


Maybe it's because the seed date and timeline were off and the "experts" were measuring things at the peak of infection and incorrectly translating that as spread:

 

[Crazyhole]

Hmm.....you don't say.


"Cuomo: NY coronavirus projections ‘all wrong,’"

https://www.newsbreak.com/new-york/...ong-too-early-to-tell-if-reopening-is-working


Maybe it's because the seed date and timeline were off and the "experts" were measuring things at the peak of infection and incorrectly translating that as spread:

View embedded media

I still think that the vaping illness from back in October of last year was coronavirus. Weird how it just disappeared around the time the rona came about.

 

[cubsker]

We closed the barn door a couple of months after the horses left

 

[dinglefritz]

We closed the barn door a couple of months after the horses left

Pretty good statistical analysis from this tweeter, highlighting the difference between reporting date and actual date. He has been pretty spot on with his projections, adjusting for increase testing, etc. I hope his projections for deaths caused by lockdown don't come to fruition though.

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic

Now on I think it was CBS news on the radio this morning Oxford in England is saying that if their next trial goes well (Astra Zeneca) that they'll likely have 30 million doses of vaccine available by September 1st. Apparently they don't have the same FDA bureaucracy that we do. It does sound like Moderna's trials have been going well in the U.S.

 

[Charlie Marlow]

Just a heads up. I predict that there will be a MASSIVE increase in new cases and fatalities reported tomorrow by CNN and MSNBC.....of course they'll neglect to mention that the numbers include the numbers for the whole 3 day holiday weekend. The really good news. Worldometer shows ZERO new cases and fatalities today for the U.S.

Fake news. Worldometer doesn't operate like that. It has posted numbers daily and has never posted 'zero'. But they cut off the day sometime in the evening before 9:00. So if you are checking it at night, you actually have to click on 'yesterday' to get that day's numbers. Sunday and Monday usually have the lowest numbers and then they usually go up during the rest of the week. By the way, it seems like it went down a little but has recently leveled off the last few weeks. New York's numbers have gone down dramatically. One could imply that it is still on the increase in the other 49 states overall. But the testing numbers are so sketchy at this point it is hard to conclude anything one way or the other.

 

[Charlie Marlow]

Now on I think it was CBS news on the radio this morning Oxford in England is saying that if their next trial goes well (Astra Zeneca) that they'll likely have 30 million doses of vaccine available by September 1st. Apparently they don't have the same FDA bureaucracy that we do. It does sound like Moderna's trials have been going well in the U.S.

I'm not sure what to think about Moderna. They posted some positive news that results went well so far, but the experts say they didn't release the details so it's hard to say. One thing that happened is that a bunch of their execs unloaded stock the next day after the prices went up following their 'good' news.

 

[dinglefritz]

Fake news. Worldometer doesn't operate like that. It has posted numbers daily and has never posted 'zero'. But they cut off the day sometime in the evening before 9:00. So if you are checking it at night, you actually have to click on 'yesterday' to get that day's numbers. Sunday and Monday usually have the lowest numbers and then they usually go up during the rest of the week. By the way, it seems like it went down a little but has recently leveled off the last few weeks. New York's numbers have gone down dramatically. One could imply that it is still on the increase in the other 49 states overall. But the testing numbers are so sketchy at this point it is hard to conclude anything one way or the other.

I actually checked it in the afternoon but I should have used a sarcasm emojii.. They hadn't reported any numbers when I looked at it for yesterday. I agree that drawing any major conclusions from the testing numbers would be foolish right now. There's too much variation in the number of people being tested and how or when they're reported. My point is that last week somebody posted a link to a news story on here on how I think it was Georgia's "Positive cases had skyrocketed since they re-opened". Daily dips or rises in positive cases can't be used to support one side or the other. Give me a couple of weeks of data on hospitalizations and then we'll talk.

In other news, a small town in South Dakota (Huron) reported that they had 20 positive tests in school aged kids there from K-12. I know they have a large Asian immigrant population in that town whose hygiene practices are suspect to say the least. I don't know if they run summer programs for kids or how the school system would know to be able to post that information. A couple of years ago I read a news story where they were investigating what was thought to be dog carcasses being cooked at one residence. It was determined after testing and investigation that it was road killed coyote. The other news stories from that immigrant community were a basement being flooded in one rental to raise fish and another house was being used to raise chickens......

 

[leodisflowers]

I think I'm finally "Covided Out" and I think most people are the same. We went to Myrtle Beach this weekend and it was packed, but it was also fun to grab a beer in a bar. Hadn't had that for awhile!.

 

[dinglefritz]

It appears that the long term trend (last 3 weeks) in new deaths in the U.S. from the Wuhan Flu continue to drop dramatically according to Worldometer. We're either getting better at treating this thing or the number of new infections must be falling faster than the reported numbers would indicate. I've been saying for a while that I think when it's all said and done that the fatality rate for proven positive cases will be less than one half of one percent (.5%). With the high number of asymptomatic positives that will never be reported that number in actuality would be much lower than that. That's .5% (5 out of 1000) of ALL cases which includes people with co-morbidities. When you look at healthy people under the age of 65 the number of fatalities from this is ridiculously low.

 

[dinglefritz]

I'm not sure what to think about Moderna. They posted some positive news that results went well so far, but the experts say they didn't release the details so it's hard to say. One thing that happened is that a bunch of their execs unloaded stock the next day after the prices went up following their 'good' news.

I think there's been several smaller companies who tried to release positive news about treatments etc in order to boost their stock price and maybe entice a larger company to buy them. I think Moderna is likely going to be able to market an effective vaccine but those execs probably looked at the falling number of new fatalities and the fact that Astra Zeneca will probably be marketing vaccine by fall. I don't think this vaccine will be a long term bell cow for any of these companies and they know that. I don't think it's a statement on their vaccine as much as it is how much their stock ran up versus long term income projections.

 

[tro80]

Have been out to eat a handful of times now in Omaha. Plenty of social distancing going on for sure, but nice to get out and have a meal and a craft beer. Just not that worried about catching it. But, I definitely keep my distance from the folks. They made 62 years together this year, I'd hate to be the reason they don't make 63. Can't wait to get to the local watering hole next week (no food so can't open just yet), even if I can't belly up to the bar just yet.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

Have been out to eat a handful of times now in Omaha. Plenty of social distancing going on for sure, but nice to get out and have a meal and a craft beer. Just not that worried about catching it. But, I definitely keep my distance from the folks. They made 62 years together this year, I'd hate to be the reason they don't make 63. Can't wait to get to the local watering hole next week (no food so can't open just yet), even if I can't belly up to the bar just yet.

Jams in the Old Market had maybe 15 peoole in while place Saturday evening bout 5:30-6. But I think some of that is a lot of people don't know things are open again. I tipped her really well. Feel so bad for all the lost revenue from this bullshit.

 

[John_J_Rambo]

bars/restaurants here in CO are opening tomorrow

gov just said he's suspending all outdoor dining laws to encourage places to maximize it, including setting up tables on sidewalks/nearby lots so long as permission has been given from local municipality (public) or land owner (private). said this way restaurants can serve 100%+ of usual capacity.

good stuff.

 

[tarheelhusker]

I think I'm finally "Covided Out" and I think most people are the same. We went to Myrtle Beach this weekend and it was packed, but it was also fun to grab a beer in a bar. Hadn't had that for awhile!.

This is the 1st out of 20 yrs. we won’t be going to Myrtle. Last two years was BS also. Just too much.
https://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/news/local/crime/article242990946.html

 

[Iroh2]

So basically 100,000 dead is not a big deal, which is what we are saying... especially if you are over 65.... just wanted to get that right. Did I miss anything?

 

[John_J_Rambo]

So basically 100,000 dead is not a big deal, which is what we are saying... especially if you are over 65.... just wanted to get that right. Did I miss anything?

*sarcasm font*

that is exactly what everybody is saying.

 

[RedMyMind]

So basically 100,000 dead is not a big deal, which is what we are saying... especially if you are over 65.... just wanted to get that right. Did I miss anything?

some states got the body count that they wanted.

 

[cubsker]

So basically 100,000 dead is not a big deal, which is what we are saying... especially if you are over 65.... just wanted to get that right. Did I miss anything?

I believe excess deaths show it as a pretty bad flu season. Take away the piss poor decision to put people with it in nursing homes and "it's the flu, bro" was pretty much correct.

 

[kidofSN]

CDC calling this a bad flu season as they estimate that 62,000 died from the flu this season. That is in addition to the 100,000 already dead from Covid-19. Yep, Covid is just the flu.