Covid-19 updates and analysis (long)

Discussion in 'Husker Board' started by xrugger, Apr 23, 2020.

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  1. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Sophomore
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    Sex jokes are funny when they come at somebody else's expense.

    Hehe, I said come.
     
  2. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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  3. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Sophomore
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    And yet those California doctors were taken down on YouTube because they were crazy and reckless. Sheesh.
     
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  4. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    Lockdowns.........the result of a 14 year old's science project.


    "But what is this mention of the high-school daughter of 14? Her name is Laura M. Glass, and she recently declined to be interviewed when the Albuquerque Journal did a deep dive of this history.

    Laura, with some guidance from her dad, devised a computer simulation that showed how people – family members, co-workers, students in schools, people in social situations – interact. What she discovered was that school kids come in contact with about 140 people a day, more than any other group. Based on that finding, her program showed that in a hypothetical town of 10,000 people, 5,000 would be infected during a pandemic if no measures were taken, but only 500 would be infected if the schools were closed.

    Laura’s name appears on the foundational paper arguing for lockdowns and forced human separation. That paper is Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza (2006). It set out a model for forced separation and applied it with good results backwards in time to 1957.............

    ......................In other words, it was a high-school science experiment that eventually became law of the land, and through a circuitous route propelled not by science but politics.

    The primary author of this paper was Robert J. Glass, a complex-systems analyst with Sandia National Laboratories. He had no medical training, much less an expertise in immunology or epidemiology."


    https://www.aier.org/article/the-2006-origins-of-the-lockdown-idea/
     
  5. WHCSC

    WHCSC Blackshirt
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    Was the author of the paper the 14yo's dad? Same last name.
     
  6. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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  7. ZaneHickey

    ZaneHickey Defensive Coordinator
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    The CDC now says the virus does NOT transmit, easily, via surfaces. So there's that...
     
  8. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    Well you really need to wait a couple of weeks to judge that accurately. That said, some states really never closed down and they seem to be ticking along with pretty flat numbers. We'll see if they escalate as people relax.
     
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  9. CC_Lemming

    CC_Lemming First Team All-Big Ten
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    Bravo! I would like this post twice if I could. So good...
     
  10. Charlie Marlow

    Charlie Marlow Assistant Head Coach
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    People have been socially distancing during pandemics, etc for hundreds of years. It really isn't some new idea.
     
  11. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Sophomore
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    FIFY
     
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  12. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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  13. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    CDC out with several scenarios based on evidence prior to 4/29/20 for COVID-19.

    Best estimate scenario

    Symptomatic Case Fatality Rate

    0-49 - 0.05%
    50-64 - 0.2%
    65+ - 1.3%
    Overall - 0.4%

    Percent of infections that are asymptomatic - 35% bringing the IFR down even lower than the above.


    What the hell did we do?


    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
     
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  14. litespeedhuskerfan

    litespeedhuskerfan Nebraska Football Hall of Fame
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    Killed off the best market, economy, and jobs market in our history.
     
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  15. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Sophomore
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    It wasn't the best in history, but it was the healthiest it had been for 15 years.
     
  16. litespeedhuskerfan

    litespeedhuskerfan Nebraska Football Hall of Fame
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    Add all 3 together and the argument could be made it was the best, but for the sake of conversation let's say you're right, and you could absolutely make a great argument for it, I agree 100%........ with a certain event looming in a few months, something had to be done to disrupt it.
     
  17. CheeseRunza

    CheeseRunza Walk On
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    Falls in line with what Dr Fauci published in an editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine back in February.

    On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
     
    177 CheeseRunza, May 22, 2020
    Last edited: May 22, 2020
  18. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Sophomore
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    Initially I dont think there was a political motivation but it certainly seems like as time has passed there is now.
     
  19. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Sophomore
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    Sweden has 24 times as many people that have tested positive for antibodies than have tested positive for the virus.
     
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  20. Iroh2

    Iroh2 Walk On
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    Plus highest per capita death rate...
     
  21. Nebraska_Reality

    Nebraska_Reality Redshirt Freshman
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    That goes both ways.....

    Here is the initial graphic the state department of health in Georgia used to "prove" that there was a decrease in cases in the 5-county Atlanta Metro area. And they say that one can't alter time.....

    http://www.joeydevilla.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Original-graph.png

    The governor, Brian Kemp, has the lowest approval rating of all governors in the US in terms of handling C19.....

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...s-have-better-coronavirus-numbers-than-trump/

    And, before anyone slams this poll for being from the "evul, librul" WAPO, the poll shows that of the 5 highest and lowest rated governors, 4 of the 5 on both ends of the spectrum are Republicans.
     
    181 Nebraska_Reality, May 22, 2020
    Last edited: May 22, 2020
  22. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    nobody gives a sh## about polling on handling of this Corona virus. Polls depend on who pollsters can reach and how they frame/ask the questions. Polls on this topic are worthless. The non-stop bashing of "open it up" governors by CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC and CBS is despicable and influences public opinion. In my daily life I've talked to exactly ONE person who wasn't in favor of opening things back up and his wife has been basically quarantined for 2 months because she works in a nursing home. She works in one of the very view nursing homes in our 5 state area that hasn't been infected yet with COVID-19,
     
  23. Nebraska_Reality

    Nebraska_Reality Redshirt Freshman
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    I don't know anybody that is favor of keeping things closed up, either. There does seem to be this bull crap of "if you don't favor a complete opening-up of everything, then you can cower in fear". That's BS.
     
  24. schuele

    schuele Athletic Director
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    Yeah I felt badly for Kemp. He took a lot of cheap shots for getting out in front of the national guidelines:

    President bashes Georgia governor for opening state
     
    184 schuele, May 22, 2020
    Last edited: May 22, 2020
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  25. Mack In Motion

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  26. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    amazingly now Patrick Ewing has the Wuhan Flu. You would think in a city like Washington with all of the preventative measures that he would be safe from contracting the virus.:rolleyes:
     
  27. resdog851

    resdog851 Blackshirt
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    Well he DOES have nostrils three sizes bigger than any adult male should have, so that must be tough to keep all that plague out. [​IMG]
     
  28. SeaOfRed75

    SeaOfRed75 Sophomore
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    I always mess up posting gifs here, so could someone please reply with a Chris Tucker from Friday----Damn!!!!!! ?
     
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  29. resdog851

    resdog851 Blackshirt
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    [​IMG]
     
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  30. Nebraska_Reality

    Nebraska_Reality Redshirt Freshman
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    Kemp initially used a graph that showed a downward trend in COVID 19 cases in the 5-county Atlanta metro area. However, the dates were out of order on the x-axis in order to show a decrease. In reality, cases in those counties collectively are at a plateau.

    http://www.joeydevilla.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Original-graph.png

    That's part of why Kemp was getting a bunch of crap.

    The Washington Post did a poll of governor's approval ratings in terms of handling the crisis. Kemp was at the bottom.....and before you slam it for being a biased, liberal poll, 4 of the 5 highest rated governors were Republicans.
     
  31. schuele

    schuele Athletic Director
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    I should have used the sarcasm font. Did you open the link?
     
  32. Nebraska_Reality

    Nebraska_Reality Redshirt Freshman
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  33. schuele

    schuele Athletic Director
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  34. RedMyMind

    RedMyMind Senior
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    Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York with the state forced euthanasia.
     
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  35. HBK4life

    HBK4life Nebraska Football Hall of Fame
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    Hmmm...what do all those states have in common? Can't quite put my finger on it?? o_O:rolleyes:
     
  36. Nebraska_Reality

    Nebraska_Reality Redshirt Freshman
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    Gotcha.....my apologies....
     
  37. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    Interestingly even though testing has ramped up considerably Worldometer still has our total number of new cases continuing to fall. Some news sources shout from the roof tops when there's a one day blip upwards in the daily count, but I never hear a peep out of those braying jackasses about the longer term trends.
     
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  38. NikkiSixx

    NikkiSixx Graduate Assistant
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    from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/transmission/

    Objects and Surfaces
    The virus could spread by touching an object or surface with virus present from an infected person, andthen touching the mouth, nose or eyes.

    Surface contamination as observed in the study cited above [source]:

    • Computer mouse (ICU 6/8, 75%; GW 1/5, 20%)
    • Trash cans (ICU 3/5, 60%; GW 0/8)
    • Sickbed handrails (ICU 6/14, 42.9%; GW 0/12)
    • Doorknobs (GW 1/12, 8.3%)
    76.5% of all personal items sampled at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) were determined to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 [source]

    Of these samples, 81.3% of the miscellaneous personal items were positive by PCR, which included:

    • Exercise equipment
    • Medical equipment (spirometer, pulse oximeter, nasal cannula)
    • PC and iPads
    • Reading glasses

      Other findings:

    • Cellular phones (83.3% positive for viral RNA)
    • Remote controls for in-room TVs (64.7% percent positive)
    • Toilets (81.0% positive)
    • Room surfaces (80.4% of all sampled)
    • Bedside tables and bed rails (75.0%)
    • Window ledges (81.8%)
    Duration of contamination on objects and surfaces
    Although the virus titer was greatly reduced, viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured for this length of time:

    • Plastic: up to 2-3 days
    • Stainless Steel: up to 2-3 days
    • Cardboard: up to 1 day
    • Copper: up to 4 hours
    [source]

    Floor
    "The rate of positivity was relatively high for floor swab samples (ICU 7/10, 70%; GW 2/13, 15.4%), perhaps because of gravity and air flow causing most virus droplets to float to the ground.

    In addition, as medical staff walk around the ward, the virus can be tracked all over the floor, as indicated by the 100% rate of positivity from the floor in the pharmacy, where there were no patients.

    Furthermore, half of the samples from the soles of the ICU medical staff shoes tested positive. Therefore, the soles of medical staff shoes might function as carriers. The 3 weak positive results from the floor of dressing room 4 might also arise from these carriers. We highly recommend that persons disinfect shoe soles before walking out of wards containing COVID-19 patients." [source]
     
  39. ZaneHickey

    ZaneHickey Defensive Coordinator
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    The science behind this has been a dizzying mix of fact and folly. I am really interested in seeing the media's next move, as the "f" word becomes a greater likelihood (fun) with a resumption of sports. As things improve, up pop all the "second wave" stories. Next, I am guessing it will be a combo narrative. The virus is in South America and starting to form an infectious caravan, heading north! The wall won't stop it!!! Probably also a recycling of the computer animation of mushroom-cloud coughs and sneezes... Wife thinks there will be a doubling down on stories of any infected child they can find (either directly or very, very remotely connected to Covid). There should be some sort of betting/gambling available, related to this!
     
  40. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    Let's get something straight. POSITIVE FOR THE VIRUS DOES NOT MEAN THAT VIRUS IT IS INFECTIVE. Dead virus will give you a positive test. How much disinfectant do you think they use in a hospital setting? How much disinfectant is an average American using these days? IF you kill the virus it will still show up on a test. One patient in particular spent over 40 days in quarantine AFTER he was recovered because he kept testing positive in his stool samples. That finally ended when they figured out that he was shedding DEAD viral particles in his stool.
     
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