Covid-19 updates and analysis (long)

Discussion in 'Husker Board' started by xrugger, Apr 23, 2020.

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  1. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    Point well taken. Consider though that New York City was supposedly "locked down" and still is but maybe the largest disease spreader/multiplier there is (the subways) continued to operate 24/7. Now they finally realized hey maybe we need to shut them down for a while every day to clean them. It is also true that the horrible decisions in those "lockdown" states led to a large percentage of their deaths.

    The population concentration, modes of transportation, number of people who carried the virus in, etc all contributed to how many cases those states had. Clearly Pelosi, DeBlazio, Cuomo etal who were still encouraging people to head to Chinatown and ride public transportation in to March had HUGE part in their problem. It's one of the reasons I get so pissed when I hear them all blame others for their failures.

    The good news for them is that they may be approaching rapidly a large enough population immunity in those hard hit areas to really whack new infections. One other factor IMO besides the living conditions in their poor neighborhoods is the vast number of people in cold climate urban settings who are Vitamin D deficient which has proven to be a bad thing when infected.

    Personally as scared shitless as those states are they could probably open back up with a mask policy and be just fine.
     
  2. Baxter48

    Baxter48 First Team All-Big Ten
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    I read a article yesterday that Colorado was skewing it deaths of covid 19, the reduced the deaths by 25%
    Again it’s all scare tactics. Actually if you just turned off the electricity and natural gas you’d have to green new deal. I bet a few on this board would love that. But here is another issue, with oil natural gas and coal being so cheap, power companies don’t want to buy wind power energy because its to expensive.
     
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  3. schuele

    schuele Athletic Director
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    I get pissed when I hear people on both sides blaming others for their failures. Nothing more than brainless tribal politics at its absolute worst, at a time when we can least afford it.
     
  4. VandallHuskerJulie

    VandallHuskerJulie Blackshirt
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    I posted this news as I was tired of seeing the constant argument over which numbers are correct, which news station is correct, which politician is correct etc. etc. Real people are continuing to get sick and or die. These numbers might not mean anything to you folks but I guarantee they do to others.
     
  5. little a

    little a Junior
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    BOOM, ROASTED
     
  6. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    I've told clients for the past 35+ years that statistics don't mean a damned thing if you're the one in a thousand that gets whacked. The issue is that people are going to continue to get sick and die for a long time no matter what we do. It's a Catch 22. There was one story on ncbi about a spike in suicide deaths they believe to be linked to the stress of the COVID-19 stay at home orders.

    I just know that we can't keep people locked in their homes indefinitely. Hell we can't keep them locked in until January 1st which seems to be the target date for vaccine availability in some form. Even then it would take months to get everybody vaccinated. Its a no win situation. Suicide rates in stay at home areas are spiking. Who knows what's happening to children in some of the home situations due to the stress. Drug and alcohol use is WAY up. I saw a story in I think the LA Times that due to schools being closed they estimate that over 20% of the children there are going hungry.

    My community shut down non-essential businesses such as hair salons for a few weeks but that was a joke. You still saw seasoned citizens from neighboring smaller towns visiting at point blank range in WalMart with no masks. Granted we haven't been a hot bed of CV. It's tough to protect stupid people even if you try to make them stay home. I've got a friend from church who is a prison guard in the ICU right now with COVID-19. I'm pretty sure a lockdown didn't help him but he was in the grocery store a week ago without a mask on.:(
     
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  7. Baxter48

    Baxter48 First Team All-Big Ten
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    Everyone is talking a vaccine, but isn’t it really difficult finding a vaccine for a virus? Look at the common cold it’s a virus and there’s no vaccine for it.
     
  8. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    Minnesota fixed that. They mandated that power coops had to buy a certain percentage of their power from "renewable" sources. It doubled electric rates for a rural SW Minnesota coop according to one of their board members I talked to on a flight a while back.
     
  9. Baxter48

    Baxter48 First Team All-Big Ten
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    Thank goodness I don’t live in Minnesota then
     
  10. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    I think we'll have one soon. I also think foreign countries will be using it long before we do. China of course will be first in line which isn't a terrible thing I guess. Gates is financing a Chinese company developing a vaccine. Of course, they're really government controlled.
     
  11. Charlie Marlow

    Charlie Marlow Assistant Head Coach
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    How am I roasted? Dingle's bias is pretty hard right so of course he thinks 538 is a lefty cover. But most independent organizations rate it as a fairly neutral site since it focuses more on analysis of numbers, etc than political opinion. I wonder what dingle's thoughts on the Cato Institute are?

    He says he thinks 60% is the herd number. Almost all experts through a countless variety of sources say it ranges from 60-90. 60% is the number that corresponds to a R naught of 2.5. That was the original estimate. But as many posters have been telling us, the virus appears to have infected a lot more people than originally thought. That means a higher R naught. The current estimate of R naught is actually 5.7 and that converts to a herd rate around 82%

    But anyway, someone else has said that all viruses fizzle out around 30% so we will never hit herd immunity anyway. Oh wait, there's that one paper somewhere that says herd at 10 or 20% now. That's awesome how that all worked out neatly. Crisis averted!!

    I'm a numbers guy through and through. I like numbers because they don't lie. People can use them to lie, but they just hope that no one is actually paying attention. But if you understand the numbers well, you see how easily their arguments fall apart.
     
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  12. Charlie Marlow

    Charlie Marlow Assistant Head Coach
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    and fwiw, dingle and I both agree that vaccine is the preferable route. and we both advocate going out, just be smart about it. who keeps portraying me as a lockdown guy anyway? i just try and post info that i find online that i find of interest.
     
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  13. Hastings4Huskers

    Hastings4Huskers Redshirt Freshman
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    Awe poor little fella. Exercise lose some weight. Maybe you will feel better
     
  14. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    I really don't pay any attention to the Cato Institute. I'm not a libertarian. I do believe in the smallest government possible and think our government has gotten out of hand.

    As far as population immunity goes, I've always read and heard 60%. That said, in an uncontrolled travel environment, I'm not sure it is possible to reach a high enough population immunity to eliminate this virus. We're too mobile and with the number of asymptomatic carriers, I think this thing will probably linger for years....or maybe not. Maybe it dies out in the summer heat and humidity. The bottom line is as my wife said tonight "even 80% of the senior citizens with all of their health problems are going to survive this thing". Could we say the same thing about an unvaccinated senior citizens and influenza?

    The media wants to scream from the roof tops about the exceptions where a young person dies from complications from the virus. Those are exceptions that are very rare that also happen with influenza and we all know how resistant young healthy people are to getting the flu vaccine.

    As you know, I was all in on this in January. As more and more information has come out it became obvious that while a bad deal, it's way over blown. It is also obvious that some people are more concerned about furthering their social agenda than they are about the crisis at hand. It's too bad that this has gotten turned in to a left versus right. It shouldn't be that way. As I've said before, I'm in a fairly high risk category, but need to be responsible for myself. IF I get it, it will be because I didn't protect myself well enough. I don't care how many people stay home, it's probably going to be out there well in to next year at least. I would rather take my chances with catching it than to make my neighbors hide out in their houses so I don't get it.

    FWIW, nothing touched by ABC news in unbiased. Numbers are very easy to hide bias in.
     
  15. Charlie Marlow

    Charlie Marlow Assistant Head Coach
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    I mean, you're a teacher after all. RollingLaugh I kid. I kid.
     
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  16. jmliehr

    jmliehr First Team All-Big Ten
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    And it’s not even close to that simple, the electric grid must remain balanced, as a generating entity you can’t just throw power at the grid, you can only generate power your members can use or that you have a buyer for. You can ramp gas and coal plants in relation to load, but wind just generates what it does.

    There is no current storage technology that makes economic sense or scales. Even if you use wind during the day, what happens at night when the wind dies down? You have to have something that you can ramp to keep the grid balanced.

    We refer to renewables as anti-load, you have to ramp in the morning to meet demand, then spin down units as wind (and solar if you have it) picks up and people go to work, then back up as it gets dark and people go home. It costs money to start/stop units and causes wear and tear on those units.

    It sounds simple to “go green”, and many want to, but it’s complicated and not yet feasible.
     
  17. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    Tweet!
     
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  18. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    It seems to me the experts are batting about 0.0000% on this whole thing.

    "Chinese researchers had previously suggested asymptomatic people might transmit the virus but had not presented clear-cut evidence. “There’s no doubt after reading [the NEJM] paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring,” Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told journalists. “This study lays the question to rest.”"

    "But the researchers didn’t actually speak to the woman before they published the paper. The last author, Michael Hoelscher of the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Medical Center, says the paper relied on information from the four other patients: “They told us that the patient from China did not appear to have any symptoms.” Afterward, however, RKI and the Health and Food Safety Authority of the state of Bavaria did talk to the Shanghai patient on the phone, and it turned out she did have symptoms while in Germany. According to people familiar with the call, she felt tired, suffered from muscle pain, and took paracetamol, a fever-lowering medication. (An RKI spokesperson would only confirm to Science that the woman had symptoms.)"


    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong
     
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  19. litespeedhuskerfan

    litespeedhuskerfan Nebraska Football Hall of Fame
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    Glad to see certain Governors being sued over their lockdown measures, and certain law enforcement agencies telling them they won't enforce it either. This whole thing could fold like a stack of dominoes pretty quick if a few more agencies told their Governor to shove it and the courts sided against those same Governors.
     
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  20. John_J_Rambo

    John_J_Rambo Junior
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    48 states open/opening in some fashion today
     
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  21. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    I wonder if he is talking about himself.


     
  22. RedMyMind

    RedMyMind Senior
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    China shut down domestic travel yet kept international travel open. They knew what they were doing.
     
  23. RedMyMind

    RedMyMind Senior
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    I remember when this was going to blow over by Valentine's Day. Good times
     
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  24. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    It looks like hand washing and protecting nursing homes was all that was needed to battle this virus. And, it would have saved us printing $3 Trillion out of thin air and numerous jobs.

    No correlation between Stay in place (SIP) orders or social distancing and decreased deaths. No correlation means no causation, so SIP and social distancing do not cause decreased deaths.

    There is correlation for more time spent at home after SIP orders and increased death (also supported by NY and Spanish statistics that I posted previously). Correlation does not mean causation, so we can't say that making people stay at home caused more death even though there is correlation. If you are really interested in this analysis, I would advise you to read the entire el gato malo thread.





     
  25. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    CDC knows lockdowns aren't effective after 1% infection rate also.


     
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  26. HuskersNC

    HuskersNC Junior
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    Read the responses, too many holes. Cherry picked data with questionable assumptions :rolleyes:



     
  27. little a

    little a Junior
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  28. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    I understand that but they're Minnesota after all. They're the home of the Democratic Farmer (sic)Labor party. They did in fact mandate a certain percentage of power had to be "renewable". It's one of the reasons that wind power development has gone crazy in South Dakota.
     
  29. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    The real question though is where the heck is SoFLHusker? Hope he's okay.
     
    149 dinglefritz, May 18, 2020
    Last edited: May 19, 2020
  30. Iroh2

    Iroh2 Walk On
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    The real test will be to look at the rates in 2-3 weeks. Bad Cat’s analysis is sound but base assumptions and data selection are deeply flawed as the narrative was developed first and the data was selected to come to a specific conclusion.. death rate is 0.7% of total infected, just a matter of how long it takes to work through the population... that is really the only number that matters.. Texasss is the first guinea pig, should be interesting to watch..
     
  31. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    I don't think you can accurately say that the death rate is .7% given the extremely high rate of asymptomatic positives they're finding when they go in and test large workplaces in particular. We also HAVE to consider now that there seems to be a fairly high rate of false negative tests. Some ill people are taking up to 4 tests to finally test positive. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that town in Germany where they tested the whole population ended up having a CFR under .5%. IMO, if you were to start testing a given population which routinely was outside and getting plenty of sunlight, you would drop that CFR even lower. Remember, our numbers in this country are skewed horribly by what a few governors did to their nursing homes. We had over 30,000 deaths in those 3 states in nursing homes alone.
     
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  32. leodisflowers

    leodisflowers All-American
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    Yep. My parents live in small town Western NE. My dad had some sort of bug in late February that my mom said it was sick as he has ever been. He powered through in about 3 days. Tested negative for the flu, and many others... Fast forward to present. My dad tested positive for it after going in for a routine procedure and that was one of the checks... Had no idea he had it and feels great. A couple of his golfing buddies and their wives had the same thing. All tested positive, but no one knew they had it. The .7% is not correct and I'd guess if we were ever able to start mass testing everyone these numbers are going to be sky high of people who have had it.

    The kicker is, my mom is the Covid nurse at the hospital, has been around tons of positive cases and has been with my dad the entire time. Has tested negative 5 separate times.
     
  33. little a

    little a Junior
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    Quick question- anyone like me getting burned out by articles with “new drug kills virus” clickbait and then u read that it’s nowhere near close to be released with 6 months?
     
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  34. John_J_Rambo

    John_J_Rambo Junior
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    I've been burned out by all covid news for a month+
     
  35. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    I've got a couple of friends who traveled in January and February who were sicker than hell for weeks. One had cardiac manifestations and extreme fatigue for almost a month. I've been pumping them up to get an antibody test but so far they haven't. IF the one friend had COVID-19, I probably was already exposed as well due to how many times we had dinner with them when he was sick and coughing all over the place. The other couple flew back and forth to Scottsdale multiple times and they traveled to wine country at one point this winter. All had their flu vaccinations.

    With your wife's occupation there is a chance that she was exposed to multiple other Corona viruses at work that might have given her protective immunity. Obviously an antibody test would be the best way to try to determine that.
     
    155 dinglefritz, May 19, 2020
    Last edited: May 19, 2020
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  36. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    I was posting about this over a month ago. I'm glad the CDC is catching up.

    "While touching infected surfaces has always been part of the messaging on how the virus spreads, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently shifted its stance online. The CDC now says that COVID-19 spreads from person to person contact, and then lists touching infected surfaces under a section titled, "The virus does not spread easily in other ways.""


    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc...asily-on-contaminated-surfaces-153317029.html
     
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  37. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    There's lots of back tracking going on by the "experts" at the CDC. I can assure you that you can contract a Corona virus by touching surfaces contaminated with it, but it isn't nearly as likely as it is from droplets or aerosols. I sure as hell would still be very careful about what goes in to my mouth.
     
  38. litespeedhuskerfan

    litespeedhuskerfan Nebraska Football Hall of Fame
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    I'm glad my girlfriend does not share the same concerns :D
     
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  39. xrugger

    xrugger Walk On
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    However, the length of time of exposure may be a critical factor and what I am hearing, I'm not saying it, but what I am hearing is that her time of exposure is remarkably short.
     
  40. litespeedhuskerfan

    litespeedhuskerfan Nebraska Football Hall of Fame
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    RollingLaugh

    I ain't sayin...i'm jus sayin
     
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