Covid-19 updates and analysis (long)

[jmliehr]

IFR based on Spanish seroprevalence study results released May 13, 2020:

IFR under 60 .052%
IFR under 70 .122%
IFR over 70 3.595%

View embedded media

You just are drawn to misleading data, the CDC says 81,318 pneumonia deaths from 2/1 to current, excluding influenza deaths, with only 6,158 attributed to influenza. This chart tries to link general pneumonia deaths and influenza when the CDC specifically excludes those. So this chart, like most the data you post is horse shit spin to try to make COVID look less impactful than it actually is.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

 

[jmliehr]

How pissed are people going to be when we find out this is basically just like the flu?

Show me a modern flu season that has ended 80,000+ lives Inside of 90 days. Even despite nationwide school closures, near nationwide closures of dining rooms, bars and clubs, complete stoppage of gatherings across the country, 90% plus reduction in air travel, elimination of cruises and essentially all tourism across the globe and a stoppage of all sports from recreational youth to professionals.

But if want to continue to keep your head tucked where it is, by all means do so.

 

[John_J_Rambo]

Show me a modern flu season that has ended 80,000+ lives Inside of 90 days. Even despite nationwide school closures, near nationwide closures of dining rooms, bars and clubs, complete stoppage of gatherings across the country, 90% plus reduction in air travel, elimination of cruises and essentially all tourism across the globe and a stoppage of all sports from recreational youth to professionals.

But if want to continue to keep your head tucked where it is, by all means do so.

covid is bad. worse than the flu, without question.

we should focus our efforts protecting those most vulnerable, like you've said. governments should be pouring resources into research, testing, and everything else useful in the fight against it.

businesses should have a choice to open their doors.

 

[gomerxx]

I don't for the life of me understand why this topic is allowed on this board. The cycle is: Thread introduced/Pissing match/Thread locked. .... It's a novel virus. No one knows how or when this is going to end. No one has definitive answers, especially on a football board. And what we are going to do is pretty much up to us as individuals, based on the information we take in. This stuff clutters up the works and could be potentially harmful to the more gullible among us if time shows some of this stuff is off the mark. I guess some people just have to blow their damn horn whether they know anything or not. This topic should be banned. Please return to talking football. GBR

 

[jmliehr]

I don't for the life of me understand why this topic is allowed on this board. The cycle is: Thread introduced/Pissing match/Thread locked. .... It's a novel virus. No one knows how or when this is going to end. No one has definitive answers, especially on a football board. And what we are going to do is pretty much up to us as individuals, based on the information we take in. This stuff clutters up the works and could be potentially harmful to the more gullible among us if time shows some of this stuff is off the mark. I guess some people just have to blow their damn horn whether they know anything or not. This topic should be banned. Please return to talking football. GBR

There isn’t any football to talk about, nobody makes you click on a thread and read. The topic is right up front that you click on, feel free to scroll on by.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

I don't for the life of me understand why this topic is allowed on this board. The cycle is: Thread introduced/Pissing match/Thread locked. .... It's a novel virus. No one knows how or when this is going to end. No one has definitive answers, especially on a football board. And what we are going to do is pretty much up to us as individuals, based on the information we take in. This stuff clutters up the works and could be potentially harmful to the more gullible among us if time shows some of this stuff is off the mark. I guess some people just have to blow their damn horn whether they know anything or not. This topic should be banned. Please return to talking football. GBR

When there was football to talk about, many of those threads fit the exact same description you just laid out to...also...many guys made sure to get their opinion in, then ended their post with "Mods should lock this"...exactly like you just did. So in a way this is just like many football threads.

 

[husker2612]

Don’t try to use logic, the mob needs Trumpybear or Fox to tell them what to think... move along citizens, there are no issues....

I find this ironic considering I assume you probably watch nothing but CNN and MSNBC. The biggest sheep herders in the world. Pot meet kettle.

 

[yort2000]

You just are drawn to misleading data, the CDC says 81,318 pneumonia deaths from 2/1 to current, excluding influenza deaths, with only 6,158 attributed to influenza. This chart tries to link general pneumonia deaths and influenza when the CDC specifically excludes those. So this chart, like most the data you post is horse shit spin to try to make COVID look less impactful than it actually is.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

I wasn't referencing that chart. I think he used this website for his data for that chart that has provisional data through the week ended 5/9/20 while the website you linked has provisional data through the week ended 5/2/20.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku


The website he used doesn't make it as obvious that the pneumonia data includes pneumonia only and pneumonia plus COVID. So, he has the pneumonia with COVID cases in both totals. Also, the influenza number includes those with influenza with COVID, so those would be double counted in both columns also. To be honest, I don't know if that type of analysis is worthwhile as we already know that COVID is more deadly to older people and the flu/pneumonia is more deadly for younger people than the current COVID data is showing.

 

[VandallHuskerJulie]

The Seattle Times
28 mins ·
BREAKING: 1,000 people have now died from the coronavirus in Washington. Another 337 cases have been confirmed, bringing total cases to 18,288, the state Department of Health says.

Throughout Saturday, on this page, we’ll be posting updates from Seattle Times journalists and others on the pandemic and its effects on the Seattle area, the Pacific ...

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http...PWPE2yKoVKw4nNu53eW115-sobPS9rY8cV0FqEeoXpBpg

 

[dinglefritz]

Show me a modern flu season that has ended 80,000+ lives Inside of 90 days. Even despite nationwide school closures, near nationwide closures of dining rooms, bars and clubs, complete stoppage of gatherings across the country, 90% plus reduction in air travel, elimination of cruises and essentially all tourism across the globe and a stoppage of all sports from recreational youth to professionals.

But if want to continue to keep your head tucked where it is, by all means do so.

Show me a flu season where the governors of states mandate nursing homes to admit patients with influenza. Roughly 70% of the deaths in Pennsylvania were in nursing homes. This is only worse than influenza because we don't have a vaccine for at risk patients. Good heavens man. Take a breath and reconsider the facts that are coming out. I sure as hell don't want it due to my health issues but even with those, my chance of dying from it is less than 5%.

 

[dinglefritz]

The Seattle Times
28 mins ·
BREAKING: 1,000 people have now died from the coronavirus in Washington. Another 337 cases have been confirmed, bringing total cases to 18,288, the state Department of Health says.

Throughout Saturday, on this page, we’ll be posting updates from Seattle Times journalists and others on the pandemic and its effects on the Seattle area, the Pacific ...

Get out and get some sunshine. Keep your Vitamin D levels up. It wouldn't appear that the stay at home orders are doing much in the state of Washington. Just imagine if you had a new influenza with no vaccine how many people would die. The state of Washington has WAY more than 18,000 cases IMO. I would bet you've had 10X that many at least.

 

[Charlie Marlow]

The initial Imperial College model projected death totals if no measures were taken. Measures were taken though, so how do you judge its accuracy?

 

[Charlie Marlow]

The Seattle Times
28 mins ·
BREAKING: 1,000 people have now died from the coronavirus in Washington. Another 337 cases have been confirmed, bringing total cases to 18,288, the state Department of Health says.

Throughout Saturday, on this page, we’ll be posting updates from Seattle Times journalists and others on the pandemic and its effects on the Seattle area, the Pacific ...

Washington has done well to flatten the curve and slow the rate after the initial breakout.
Go out and enjoy Vitamin D, but still socially distance and wear a mask where appropriate, etc.

 

[VandallHuskerJulie]

Get out and get some sunshine. Keep your Vitamin D levels up. It wouldn't appear that the stay at home orders are doing much in the state of Washington. Just imagine if you had a new influenza with no vaccine how many people would die. The state of Washington has WAY more than 18,000 cases IMO. I would bet you've had 10X that many at least.

Thank you for your unsolicited advice.

 

[John_J_Rambo]

The initial Imperial College model projected death totals if no measures were taken. Measures were taken though, so how do you judge its accuracy?

it also assumed a much higher death rate than what's turned out

 

[yort2000]

The initial Imperial College model projected death totals if no measures were taken. Measures were taken though, so how do you judge its accuracy?

"This worst‐case simulation came up with 2.2 million deaths by simply assuming that 81% of the population gets infected –268 million people– and that 0.9% of them die. It did not assume health systems would have to be overwhelmed to result in so many deaths, though it did make that prediction."



Historically, viruses peter out before they reach 30% of the population.

"The key premise of 81% of the population being infected should have raised more alarms than it did. Even the deadly “Spanish Flu” (H1N1) pandemic of 1918–19 infected no more than 28% of the U.S. population. The next H1N1 “Swine Flu” pandemic in 2009-10, infected 20-24% of Americans.

To push the percentage infected up from 20–28% to an unprecedented 81% for COVID-19 required assuming the number of cases and/or deaths keeps doubling every three or four days for months (deaths were predicted to peak July 20). And that means assuming the estimated reproduction number (R0) of 2.4 remains high, and people keep mingling with different groups, until nearly everyone gets infected. Long before 8 out of 10 people became infected, however, a larger and larger percentage of the population would have recovered from the disease and become immune, so a smaller and smaller share would still remain susceptible."


https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

I could really use some more charts to explain why this didn't come close to the initial predicted death totals. Cause after I look at them, a lot of things come into focus. Then a chart to explain how we're going to climb out of the economic damage we created would also be great. But nobody has one of those.

 

[dinglefritz]

Thank you for your unsolicited advice.

You're welcome. I assume then you've read the study showing that people with higher Vitamin D levels have less severe disease from COVID-19. People locked in their house generally are deficient in Vitamin D. Just trying to help and glad I'm not where you're stuck. I spent the whole day outside working at the ranch and think I'll go grab a bite of supper at a restaurant here in a little bit......

 

[dinglefritz]

"This worst‐case simulation came up with 2.2 million deaths by simply assuming that 81% of the population gets infected –268 million people– and that 0.9% of them die. It did not assume health systems would have to be overwhelmed to result in so many deaths, though it did make that prediction."



Historically, viruses peter out before they reach 30% of the population.

"The key premise of 81% of the population being infected should have raised more alarms than it did. Even the deadly “Spanish Flu” (H1N1) pandemic of 1918–19 infected no more than 28% of the U.S. population. The next H1N1 “Swine Flu” pandemic in 2009-10, infected 20-24% of Americans.

To push the percentage infected up from 20–28% to an unprecedented 81% for COVID-19 required assuming the number of cases and/or deaths keeps doubling every three or four days for months (deaths were predicted to peak July 20). And that means assuming the estimated reproduction number (R0) of 2.4 remains high, and people keep mingling with different groups, until nearly everyone gets infected. Long before 8 out of 10 people became infected, however, a larger and larger percentage of the population would have recovered from the disease and become immune, so a smaller and smaller share would still remain susceptible."


https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19

The only problem with those stats is that we have no way of knowing how many subclinical infections there were that were never diagnosed for either of those viruses. Asymptomatic infections aren't unique to COVID-19.

 

[Crazyhole]

Show me a modern flu season that has ended 80,000+ lives Inside of 90 days. Even despite nationwide school closures, near nationwide closures of dining rooms, bars and clubs, complete stoppage of gatherings across the country, 90% plus reduction in air travel, elimination of cruises and essentially all tourism across the globe and a stoppage of all sports from recreational youth to professionals.

But if want to continue to keep your head tucked where it is, by all means do so.

CFR is similar to the flu. If you think the flu isn't a big deal, explain that to the families of 20-80 thousand people who die from it every year.

 

[dinglefritz]

CFR is similar to the flu. If you think the flu isn't a big deal, explain that to the families of 20-80 thousand people who die from it every year.

My pulmonologist spouse agrees with your post. She actually agrees that this isn't any worse than a flu season where we've got the wrong antigens in the vaccine. She's particularly pissed at CNN for their ridiculous continuous hysterical coverage. She says a LOT of influenza deaths are being call COVID-19 right now.

 

[Crazyhole]

My pulmonologist spouse agrees with your post. She actually agrees that this isn't any worse than a flu season where we've got the wrong antigens in the vaccine. She's particularly pissed at CNN for their ridiculous continuous hysterical coverage. She says a LOT of influenza deaths are being call COVID-19 right now.

Its worse in the aspect of nobody having immunity to it yet, so the raw numbers are higher.

What really is irritating to me is that if you compare covid to the flu, people jump all over it like the flu is no big deal. I hope that sentiment doesn't grow and make people even more reckless during flu season because "its not as bad as that super scary covid that we survived".

 

[jmliehr]

I could really use some more charts to explain why this didn't come close to the initial predicted death totals. Cause after I look at them, a lot of things come into focus. Then a chart to explain how we're going to climb out of the economic damage we created would also be great. But nobody has one of those.

Easy to explain the way we climb out

 

[jmliehr]

My pulmonologist spouse agrees with your post. She actually agrees that this isn't any worse than a flu season where we've got the wrong antigens in the vaccine. She's particularly pissed at CNN for their ridiculous continuous hysterical coverage. She says a LOT of influenza deaths are being call COVID-19 right now.

A lot? Based on what, cause there are plenty who say they are undercounting COVID deaths

How much time has she spent watching CNN to come up with her basis? Assuming she watches Fox primarily, 79% of Fox watchers think the coverage of COVID is overblown.

I can’t remember the last time I actually watched any news, all of them are just people regurgitating their party lines that pander to their audiences to gain audience and advertising $.

 

[NikkiSixx]

What’s with the stories I’m seeing about people getting the Covid a second time after recovering? I thought you were immune once you’ve had it.

Taiwan has suggested that the people who have recovered may not actually get rid of the virus, but that it possibly goes dormant, similar to the shingles virus type thing. They were concerned that the 4 HIV inserts could be doing damage to the immune system all along, or that some other unknown trigger, could restart it. To me, those are some alarming hypotheticals that they are trying to research, so I hope those aren't true.

 

[dinglefritz]

A lot? Based on what, cause there are plenty who say they are undercounting COVID deaths

How much time has she spent watching CNN to come up with her basis? Assuming she watches Fox primarily, 79% of Fox watchers think the coverage of COVID is overblown.

I can’t remember the last time I actually watched any news, all of them are just people regurgitating their party lines that pander to their audiences to gain audience and advertising $.

She gets daily information from the CDC and is in contact with other medical educators from all over the world. I think her credentials trump yours. She presents at medical conferences all over the world as well. In her spare time she manages ventilator patients and a few CV patients. CNN has lost their mind with their coverage. I won't even start on MSNBC. The medical "experts" they trot out on some of their shows don't know diddly. An ER doc from Seattle has suddenly become an infectious disease expert.

 

[John_J_Rambo]

hilarious that LA's top health official has a phD and not an MD

typical

 

[BeautifulDayintheNeighborhood]

I find this ironic considering I assume you probably watch nothing but CNN and MSNBC. The biggest sheep herders in the world. Pot meet kettle.

Lol I watched chromo for five min the other night... they say he talks is literally telling people to think. •”this is what you should be focused on”

 

[Charlie Marlow]

More herd immunity analysis from 538

For COVID-19, we’re still not certain what the R0 is, so we don’t yet know what the herd immunity threshold is. For now, it’s estimated to be anywhere from 70 to 90 percent. But here’s the problem: To reach even the lower end of that range naturally in the U.S. — imagine giving up on any interventions and just letting the disease run its course — 230 million Americans would eventually become infected and, depending on the fatality rate (more on that later), millions could die.

 

[Charlie Marlow]

A really interesting article about Wuhan's bat lady.

New revelations about the coronavirus kept coming to light. The researchers discovered, for instance, that the pathogen enters human lung cells by using a receptor called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, and they and other groups have since been screening for drugs that can block it. Scientists are also racing to develop vaccines. In the long run, the Wuhan team plans to develop broad-spectrum vaccines and drugs against coronaviruses deemed risky to humans. “The Wuhan outbreak is a wake-up call,” Shi says.

Many scientists say the world should move beyond merely responding to deadly pathogens when they arise. “The best way forward is prevention,” Daszak says. Because 70 percent of emerging infectious diseases of animal origins come from wildlife, a top priority should be identifying them and developing better diagnostic tests, he adds. Doing so would essentially mean continuing on a much larger scale what researchers such as Daszak and Shi had been doing before their funding ended this year.

 

[little a]

Show me a flu season where the governors of states mandate nursing homes to admit patients with influenza. Roughly 70% of the deaths in Pennsylvania were in nursing homes. This is only worse than influenza because we don't have a vaccine for at risk patients. Good heavens man. Take a breath and reconsider the facts that are coming out. I sure as hell don't want it due to my health issues but even with those, my chance of dying from it is less than 5%.

that’s the thing that pisses me off the most... from the very beginning we were told elderly were the “most vulnerable”. How these governors are not being held accountable.... I just don’t understand. Cuomo is simply the worst IMHO- talking about his “cherished, admirable” elderly mom while behind the scene sending death to other people’s parents. And that’s just the beginning of his incompetence.... subways, taxation of volunteer first responders, wasting of government resource (remember the press conference crying about beds and ventilators)

 

[Nebraska_Reality]

More herd immunity analysis from 538

For COVID-19, we’re still not certain what the R0 is, so we don’t yet know what the herd immunity threshold is. For now, it’s estimated to be anywhere from 70 to 90 percent. But here’s the problem: To reach even the lower end of that range naturally in the U.S. — imagine giving up on any interventions and just letting the disease run its course — 230 million Americans would eventually become infected and, depending on the fatality rate (more on that later), millions could die.

Be careful.....I posted the link to the 538 article on another thread. I was quickly told that I needed to go hide.

 

[dinglefritz]

More herd immunity analysis from 538

For COVID-19, we’re still not certain what the R0 is, so we don’t yet know what the herd immunity threshold is. For now, it’s estimated to be anywhere from 70 to 90 percent. But here’s the problem: To reach even the lower end of that range naturally in the U.S. — imagine giving up on any interventions and just letting the disease run its course — 230 million Americans would eventually become infected and, depending on the fatality rate (more on that later), millions could die.

538 news is a branch of ABC ostensibly created to give a balanced approach to news stories. IMO, it was created to give cover to the bias. Suggesting we need 70-90% immunity for some degree of population immunity is not a widely accepted theory. I believe in the scientific community 60% is more widely believed. Personally I think population immunity is an overblown concept anyway.. It dramatically slows spread but potentially won't eradicate the disease. We still need a vaccine because there will likely continue to be outbreaks of this one IMO for years to come. More than likely a vaccine will cross protect against many of the new strains of CVs that might pop up as well. Hell, in one study just having the garden variety Corona virus cold stimulated protective antibodies against COVID-19 which dramatically decreased the risk of infection. That said, we can't continue to hide in our houses until we have a vaccine. IF we're really serious about stopping CVs maybe we should quarantine China......

 

[John_J_Rambo]

Be careful.....I posted the link to the 538 article on another thread. I was quickly told that I needed to go hide.

awwwwww you poor thing!

 

[yort2000]

The initial Imperial College model projected death totals if no measures were taken. Measures were taken though, so how do you judge its accuracy?

 

[yort2000]

Lockdowns

 

[schuele]

Lockdowns

View embedded media

HHS Secretary Alex Azar said today that "actions to delay and flatten the curve have saved hundreds of thousands of lives that otherwise could have been lost."
See 10:45 mark

So if lockdowns were ineffective and counter-productive, why does the HHS secretary think they saved hundreds of thousands of lives?

 

[Crazyhole]

HHS Secretary Alex Azar said today that "actions to delay and flatten the curve have saved hundreds of thousands of lives that otherwise could have been lost."
See 10:45 mark

So if lockdowns were ineffective and counter-productive, why does the HHS secretary think they saved hundreds of thousands of lives?

How often do public officials admit that they were wrong?

 

[LBremser]

Lockdowns

View embedded media

So Nebraska hasn't had a shutdown, could have fooled me!

 

[Baxter48]

So Nebraska hasn't had a shutdown, could have fooled me!

We were never told by the governor to stay home and only go to a pharmacy or grocery store. Some state we’re watching to make sure you didn’t leave your house.