Covid-19 updates and analysis (long)

Discussion in 'Husker Board' started by xrugger, Apr 23, 2020.

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  1. litespeedhuskerfan

    litespeedhuskerfan Nebraska Football Hall of Fame
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    I'm glad to see so much organized protest over the lockdown, and people fighting to get their freedom back and to open this country back up. Love it.
     
  2. NorthwoodHusker

    NorthwoodHusker Blackshirt
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    I think it's still early, but mostly agree.
    But,once it's late, it'll all too often be too late.

    We gave the virus our best, in deaths, it's barely moved the needle.
    I know this thing will pound the crap outta you, hold you down,smother you,make your muscles feel like doing survivor drills at a seals camp, then pound on those muscles.
    I know this can continue for weeks at varying degrees of pain.
    I know,like flu, it can cause heart damage,other damage,like flu.

    I don't know if those things occur at greater numbers per capita than flu, I don't know if more people die per capita than the common flu.

    I look around, and there is a coming greater wave of suffering, no one should ignore this.
    If you have no compassion in whats going on outside of the virus, look now, before whats outside of the virus is growing, and may become much greater in harm to us.

    Can we afford to let both things hit us?
    One, we can change, the other,we can at least try to manage.
     
  3. Husker.Wed.

    Husker.Wed. Athletic Director
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    If after our medical community defeats C19 they turn their considerable expertise to learning how to fix bad knees, I will once again ski the steeps. Until then, I haven't been going skiing at all because getting on the lifts they jack down 16 inches above the snow hurts like hell.
     
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  4. Hoosker Du

    Hoosker Du Nebraska Football Hall of Fame
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    Thank you for the informative post. People should read this...and then read it again.
     
  5. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    We have a fair number of people who live and work in Omaha who travel internationally especially to Asia. I have little doubt that there were people infected with this virus in Omaha in mid to late January.
     
  6. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    Rural hospitals are going broke right now because they're not doing any elective procedures. Our 60 physician multispecialty clinic has had to drastically cut hours and eliminated Dr. pay for now due to having been told not to do elective procedures. Our local experience is that less than 10% of the positive cases have required hospitalization and the ones who have have all gone home so far. As far as exposing our most vulnerable goes, it's too late. It's a helluva lot smarter to lock up the most vulnerable than it is to lock up the young and healthy who need to be providing for their families. Locking down communities is not a workable solution.
     
  7. kerpal_68

    kerpal_68 Athletic Director
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    Assuming you know what area I'm from Avera is still predicting at peak 12k cases and 120 hospitalized at one time in the 7 county area here. As spread out as this virus has been I have no idea how they are still getting these numbers.
     
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  8. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Sophomore
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    Sounds great in theory, but they hold over 1.5t in us cash and invested heavily in our stock market. Piss them off and they can crash us overnight. Yeah, they would go down too but they're communist so they don't care if a bunch of people die.
     
  9. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    There's no way that happens. First of all it is looking more and more that IF you test positive you only have about a 1% chance of needing to be hospitalized. That is the experience in the packing plant cases. As we ramp up testing there will be more positive tests but the percentage of those people who require hospitalization is going to very low. Your area has only been testing sick people with suspected contact with a positive person up until recently. That artificially elevates the hospitalization rate. Avera is just regurgitating the worst case scenario from the CDC. That equates to what happened in New York City which is a very different environment than what Avera operates in. They'll see a rise in hospitalized patients but IMO it would occur regardless of whether or not their area "opened up".
     
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  10. Solana Beach Husker

    Solana Beach Husker Offensive Coordinator
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    Covid is not even half as bad as D-Day, which Americans show great courage in, and I expect today to show same courage and go to their bars and salons, and show bravery in spending their uncle sam dollars to help America, their boss needs them to keep America going but oltimately jesus decides if covid kills or not so I am happy.
     
  11. Solana Beach Husker

    Solana Beach Husker Offensive Coordinator
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    Open society so that more people can have non-essential surgeries so for profit medicine can make profits so more people die.

    Signed,
    America 2020
     
  12. tarheelhusker

    tarheelhusker Defensive Coordinator
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  13. Iroh2

    Iroh2 Walk On
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    Don’t try to use logic, the mob needs Trumpybear or Fox to tell them what to think... move along citizens, there are no issues....
     
  14. Baxter48

    Baxter48 First Team All-Big Ten
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  15. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    First of all, calling them "non-essential" surgeries is a false pretext. When a person can't function in their daily lives because of hip or knee pain and non-steroidals cease to help, that "elective" joint replacement has become ESSENTIAL. I've been there. I was at a point before I had my first hip done at age 50 that I either wanted the pain to stop or just die. It was that bad. Couldn't sleep lying down or sitting up.

    Second, stopping ELECTIVE surgeries such as joint replacements DIDN'T SAVE A SINGLE LIFE! Not one. Some facilities in New York City and maybe urban New Jersey, couldn't handle doing them. That's all. The vast majority of other facilities in the U.S. simply lacked masks and gloves. Now the masks and gloves are available. The nurses and techs who had their hours slashed or were laid off need to go back to work. Their families depend on them and the $1200 government check isn't going to make their mortgage payment. Yeah I know though folks of your ilk would love for us all to be on a fixed government payroll no matter the skill or training. Equal outcomes for everyone. :rolleyes::rolleyes:
     
    55 dinglefritz, May 9, 2020
    Last edited: May 9, 2020
  16. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    Sorry for the bump of this thread, but since the other remaining COVID thread spiraled into locked territory, I thought I would post this MORE GOOD NEWS here.

    It looks like exposure to some common cold coronaviruses may provide protection against SARS-CoV-2. Reactive CD4+ T Cells detected in approx. 40-60% of unexposed individuals. The presence of these T Cells "may" provide out right immunity or lessen the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2.


     
  17. John_J_Rambo

    John_J_Rambo Junior
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    Makes sense. Even in a tightly controlled environment where spread should be promoted (cruise ship), only 20% seem to be vulnerable to catching it.

    counting down to that alarmist @Hoosker Du to come in here waiving his corona virus #1 foam finger...
     
    57 John_J_Rambo, May 16, 2020
    Last edited: May 16, 2020
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  18. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    The above coupled with this non-peer reviewed mathematical study on variation of susceptibility stating COVID-19 may only need a 10%-20% infection rate to reach herd immunity means we may be at or close to herd immunity already. This study basically states that viruses run rampant through the most susceptible first and fastest leaving behind only less susceptible people to infect so you need lower infection rates to reach herd immunity. As a reminder, herd immunity doesn't mean no one will get infected by the virus, it just means that it won't run rampant through the entire population.



    "As the pandemic unfolds evidence will accumulate in support of low or high coefficients of variation, but soon it will be too late for this to impact public health strategies unless we act pragmatically. We searched the literature for estimates of individual variation in the propensity to acquire or transmit several infectious diseases including COVID-19 and overlaid these estimates as vertical lines in Figure 3. CV estimates are mostly comprised between 2 and 4, a range where naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may place populations over the HIT once as few as 10-20% of its individuals are immune. This depends, however, on which specific 5 transmission traits are variable and how much the trait variants are distributed."


    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v2
     
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  19. jmliehr

    jmliehr First Team All-Big Ten
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    If we need 10-20% in the US, that is 30-60 million infections. So no, we are not anywhere close to that number.
     
  20. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    Yes, and all the seroprevalence studies seem to be coming in in that 10%-20% infected range.
     
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  21. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    All the seroprevalence studies performed so far would disagree. Add into that the fact that 40%-60% of unexposed people may have the CD4+ T Cells, then things are looking pretty positive from where I'm standing.
     
    61 yort2000, May 16, 2020
    Last edited: May 16, 2020
  22. ZaneHickey

    ZaneHickey Defensive Coordinator
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    Mid February is when our house was hit by an unusual illness that wasn't A or B.
     
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  23. John_J_Rambo

    John_J_Rambo Junior
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    we're at 2M just documented. experts say this has been here a lot longer than late Feb/early March when we documented our first case.

    I'd be willing to bet we've had AT LEAST 10M infections over the last 6 months, and that's on the very conservative side.
     
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  24. Charlie Marlow

    Charlie Marlow Assistant Head Coach
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    Well there’s that one non peer reviewed study that is a wild outlier to everything else out there so I’m guessing it’s fact!
     
  25. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    Funny thing, are there any peer reviewed studies about this? It seems to me non-peer reviewed mathematical analysis was used to take all actions so far.
     
  26. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    And, the original Imperial College model used to justify locking down the UK and the US had so many holes poked in it when other "scientists" started working with it. As an example, same inputs gave you different outputs if you used it on different computers or even the same computer changing from single to multi core functionality.
     
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  27. ZaneHickey

    ZaneHickey Defensive Coordinator
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    There have to many, many multiples of that 2M that are unofficial, but very real. I just rechecked New York stats. Age 0-18 death rate stands at 0/100,000. Age 18-44 is 18.1 per 100,000 or .018%. If states/teams are seriously worried about players getting hospitalized/dying from this...we are officially at a scientifically embarrassing point. If the fear is they will get it, not know it, then shower Grandma with the kisses she deserves, then just don't do the latter. Time to saddle-up, fellas! Starting the season will be a much-needed reassurance, for the collective Cornhusker-state psyche, to boot.:Cool:
     
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  28. WHCSC

    WHCSC Blackshirt
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    What’s with the stories I’m seeing about people getting the Covid a second time after recovering? I thought you were immune once you’ve had it.
     
  29. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Sophomore
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    The tests are recognizing dead viruses. They didn't get it again, it just hasn't been flushed out of their systems completely
     
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  30. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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  31. John_J_Rambo

    John_J_Rambo Junior
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  32. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    Now they are saying that there are a tremendous number of false negative tests out there. One Dr. who was ill tested negative for the virus 3 times before he finally tested positive over 10 days in to his illness. So all of the "testing is the answer" people need to sit up and pay attention. Testing is not the panacea some seem to think. Testing for the actual virus is flawed. IF you're positive, you're positive. They've pretty much weeded out the tests that gave them false positives. IF you're negative for the virus? Maybe not so much.
     
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  33. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    My educated guess is that is MUCH higher than 10 million. All you have to do is look at the huge number of asymptomatic positives they've gotten out of some large workplaces to come to that conclusion. I've seen several studies where over 97% of the positive tests were asymptomatic. Now we're finding out that there's a large number of false negatives to add on top that. We'll be fine.
     
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  34. ZaneHickey

    ZaneHickey Defensive Coordinator
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    Really, really wish the testing for antibodies was a warp-speed priority...of course, that assumes those tests are accurate!:confused:
     
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  35. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    I believe due to the huge number of false negative tests and the huge number of asymptomatic positives, that we're a LOT closer to that number than you think. IMO, we're already over 30 million. I posted that about a week ago in a different thread. I'm not saying this is suddenly going to go away at that rate because I don't think it will. I'm not willing to bet the farm that the cold I had a couple of months ago is going to protect me if I go swap air with another patron at a bar. Hopefully all of the knuckleheads that do will create population immunity quickly for the rest of us who are more cautious. BTW, the local 89 year old smoker with COPD who has been treated for a week now seems to be doing okay so far.o_O Moral of the story, nicotine is not protective and thus far a comorbidity doesn't seem to be a death sentence.
     
  36. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    Antibody tests should be pretty good by now.
     
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  37. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    New U.S. research puts the number of people who had COVID-19 in the U.S. by April 4th at a minimum of 5 million. Other news out of the U.K., the elderly on a statin such as Lipitor were 3 times less likely to have symptoms when infected with COVID-19. I would say that's more good news.
     
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  38. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Sophomore
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    Just assuming a .4% CFR and that the death numbers are accurate we would be over 21 million so far. Personally, I think .4% is high by at least a factor of 3.
     
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  39. yort2000

    yort2000 Junior
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    IFR based on Spanish seroprevalence study results released May 13, 2020:

    IFR under 60 .052%
    IFR under 70 .122%
    IFR over 70 3.595%


    Tweet!
     
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  40. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Sophomore
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    How pissed are people going to be when we find out this is basically just like the flu?
     
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