Covid-19 updates and analysis (long)

[litespeedhuskerfan]

I'm glad to see so much organized protest over the lockdown, and people fighting to get their freedom back and to open this country back up. Love it.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

I'm glad to see so much organized protest over the lockdown, and people fighting to get their freedom back and to open this country back up. Love it.

I think it's still early, but mostly agree.
But,once it's late, it'll all too often be too late.

We gave the virus our best, in deaths, it's barely moved the needle.
I know this thing will pound the crap outta you, hold you down,smother you,make your muscles feel like doing survivor drills at a seals camp, then pound on those muscles.
I know this can continue for weeks at varying degrees of pain.
I know,like flu, it can cause heart damage,other damage,like flu.

I don't know if those things occur at greater numbers per capita than flu, I don't know if more people die per capita than the common flu.

I look around, and there is a coming greater wave of suffering, no one should ignore this.
If you have no compassion in whats going on outside of the virus, look now, before whats outside of the virus is growing, and may become much greater in harm to us.

Can we afford to let both things hit us?
One, we can change, the other,we can at least try to manage.

 

[Husker.Wed.]

Let me see if I respond to some of your queries but recognize I will be getting more into the realm of opinion or informed judgement. First, let me say I wish I had had the chance to ski with you. I love the steeps but age and injury have begun to catch up to me. Yes, it is possible there will never be a vaccine. It takes more than antibodies, it takes a vaccine to have an antigen that will produce neutralizing antibodies. That isn't always a given e.g. HIV. However, I believe that for corona viruses the thought it that a protective vaccine is highly possible. It takes time to establish that, to establish safety, and then to produce hundreds of millions of doses. Heck, it takes a year to produce the flu vaccine and that is conveniently grown in eggs and that doesn't work for corona virus.
Given the recognition that the virus is more infectious than previously assumed and given that reopening is a foregone conclusion there will be an uptick in cases particularly in places that have not been as slammed as NYC and NOLA and which therefore have fewer (presumably) immune individuals. Yes, this will lead to more deaths than had restrictions been kept in place but frankly while the restrictions have had a positive effect in keeping most hospitals from being overrun, I've been disappointed that the new case rate and mortality rate have been holding pretty much steady nationwide because we actually aren't very good at self-quarantining. I don't anticipate a second wave because I don't the first wave is going to decrease.
As I said in my OP, I advocate wearing a mask and gloves in places where all people have no choice but to go like grocery stores and gas stations. It is not inducing hysteria, this is common sense. If you are infectious, you will infect others. Now if it is a going to a bar, a restaurant, a gym that won't work but I sure as heck wouldn't want to be one of the employees at one of those places. I will choose not to go to those places for the foreseeable future. I am concerned enough about going back into the laboratory, an environment largely populated by young, immortals as I once was. Let me relate a story a colleague and collaborator emailed me today. He had been to the grocery story wearing a mask and was loading his groceries into his car. A guy walks up to him and says "I ain't wearin' no mask, motherf***er. Ain't no virus gonna kill me. F*** your mask." Unfortunately, that seems to be the attitude of some on this board. In a society your actions have consequences beyond yourself, particularly when it comes to a highly infectious virus.
As I've discussed in long buried posts, probably the most important role of government is the protection of its citizens. It is, therefore, the duty of the government to prepare for worst case scenarios. That is one reason why we spend so much on our military. Would you want a military that wasn't continually anticipating and preparing for a worst case scenario? I'd rather the government err on the side of caution here. It is not trampling your liberties, it is fulfilling the constitutional imperative of a government.
Yes, your mindset is based on your political beliefs and, yes, I agree that decisions naming which businesses are essential does seem pretty arbitrary. They are difficult decisions and I'm glad I'm not the one who has to make them.

If after our medical community defeats C19 they turn their considerable expertise to learning how to fix bad knees, I will once again ski the steeps. Until then, I haven't been going skiing at all because getting on the lifts they jack down 16 inches above the snow hurts like hell.

 

[Hoosker Du]

The news regarding corona virus is coming fast and from a variety of sources. It can be difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff particularly when it is so easy to let one’s political beliefs color the interpretations. I want to present my interpretation of where things stand right now. First, let me give you some credentials and you can judge whether my interpretations are worth your time. I have a long career as a molecular biologist running a biomedical research lab at a medical school. I have more than a passing knowledge of virology, clinical medicine, and drug development. I am part of a grant application that seeks to develop a new therapeutic approach to treat Covid-19 patients. I don’t post often but I’ve been on this board well before it was segregated into a free board and a pay board.

The bottom line is that while we know a remarkable amount about a virus that we were unaware of just a short time ago, there remains more that we don’t know. Much of the molecular nature of the virus we know from studies on the corona virus that caused SARS. The current virus is related enough to that virus that it is officially named CoV-SARS-2. We know that two host, i.e. YOU, proteins, ACE2 and TMPRSS2 are required for viral entry. The viral SPIKE protein binds to the portion of the membrane bound ACE2 that sticks outside of the cell, often a cell that lines the surface of the lung alveoli. TMPRSS2 is a protease that clips the SPIKE protein, a processing step that is required for efficient viral entry. There are therapies being developed that are directed toward interfering with these processes.

Now to address the bigger population-based questions that get at the thorny question of setting policy. Right now, anyone that operates from a political viewpoint first and foremost can find some data or some study that supports their stance. The real answer is that there are problems with what data there are and until a lot more proper testing is done, we won’t be able to make informed decisions. There are arguments over just what the real viral infection rate is in the population. Initial numbers were skewed by the fact that so few tests were available that by and large, only symptomatic people were being tested. In addition, in trying to speed the bottleneck, the CDC broke one of its own rules and there were problems with contamination in the early testing. The central government has waived some of the stringent rules regarding the development and vetting of test kits and this policy is causing a big issue currently in accurately assessing infection rates. The two recent studies from USC and Stanford (which, last I knew, had not been peer reviewed) used a test kit that had been released without FDA approval. The false positive rate of that kit is 1.7%. If one is saying that 2 to 4% of the population is showing evidence of prior infection you can see why a background like that makes those numbers dubious. Other interpretations of that data suggest that it could be ten-fold less. Testing in other countries does suggest that the circulating level of virus is in the double digits. One could use this to argue either side of open up or not. The virus has a lower mortality rate than initially thought due to the population testing bias but this also means it is more infectious than thought. Data will continue to be suspect until enough of the test kits have been properly screened by the FDA and used to evaluate a big enough sample of the population in different states. Nonetheless, I suspect that within a month we will have a reasonably good handle on the frequency of infected people in the population. No estimate I’ve seen gives numbers that approach what is needed for herd immunity. That percentage ranges from more than 60% up to 95% depending on the infectivity of the virus. A highly infectious virus, like measles, is 95%. I suspect CoV-SARS-2 will be toward the upper end of this number and that means the virus will continue to circulate with local hotspots until herd immunity is reached or a vaccine comes online.

This virus is not like influenza. I’ve seen a lot of references to the H1N1 pandemic. Influenza viruses come in a lot of flavors and it is an educated guessing game to make a vaccine that will neutralize the right strains when you have to make decisions a year and more in advance. H1N1 represented a major antigenic shift so that the vaccines for that year were completely ineffective. H1N1 is actually less infectious than the predominant flu strains and older Americans had some immunity from an outbreak that had occurred years before. Younger people had not been exposed to H1 or N1 viruses so the flu hit them harder. Yes, flu kills a lot of people and yes, there has been a substantial effort to make a ‘universal’ flu vaccine. Yes, flu tends to kill those with underlying health problems, especially lung problems but the symptoms of Covid-19 are significantly worse than from flu as evidenced by the length of ICU stays, time on a ventilator, and overall length of hospital stays. The course of Covid-19 is unpredictable, a patient can be seeming to improve and then fall off a cliff. One issue is a cytokine storm that triggers a massive inflammatory response in the lungs which can completely compromise function. This can occur in someone who is otherwise completely healthy but it cannot be predicted, at this point, who will react that way. People exposed to particulates, farmers, some construction and industrial workers, for example, should be particularly careful since they may have a high baseline of inflammation or compromise of lung function already.

I’ve been following the numbers of cases and deaths closely. While there has been a lot of argument on this board over the accuracy (or lack thereof) of predictions and numbers, there is enough of a trend that won’t make either open uppers or stay at homers happy. Both mortality and total cases for the US overall have continued at a pretty constant rate for a while now. In places the curve has begun to drop a bit but that is counterbalanced by places where numbers are increasing more than linearly. Nebraska has fared pretty well so far thanks to a low population density and few tourists bringing it in. There are a couple of worrying developments of hot spots e.g. Grand Island with the potential to cause problems for local hospitals. The difficulties faced by rural hospitals even without Covid-19 is a huge issue of national concern. Take home message: no peak but a steady ongoing course of infections and deaths averaged over the nation.

Have stay at home orders worked? To a degree, yes. Two examples: Colorado had early outbreaks thanks to infected people coming into the state to ski. Early on it was number 4 or 5 in Covid-19 cases. Colorado’s governor instituted stay at home orders and closed many businesses. It now ranks 18th in total cases among states. A second example is seen by comparing Kentucky and Tennessee. Kentucky moved sooner with business closings and promoting social distancing and has less than half the number of cases as Tennessee. Now the bad news: as I said above, overall numbers aren’t going down. They have been holding pretty steady. With some notable exceptions, hospitals have not been overrun. I anticipate that the case rate and death rate will hold steady for the next month. That means we will have over 100,000 total Covid-related deaths in the US by June. I hope I’m wrong. (I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken- old joke, couldn’t resist).

Reopening soon is inevitable. I wish it would hold off for another 3 or 4 weeks until we have firmer numbers on infection rates that would inform as to how best to go about a staggered reopening, but I am realistic enough to know that it isn’t going to happen. Wrong decisions will mean an upturn in cases and deaths and could actually wind up shutting down some industries more than helping them back on their feet. I am eager to get back to work. My colleagues and I are working on developing a very promising cancer drug and progress is currently at a standstill as we cannot go to the lab for anything but essential maintenance. However, I am going to be smart about it for some time yet. I will work at home insofar as possible. I am not going to travel, I am not going to go to restaurants, not even a damn microbrewery, I am going to continue wearing a mask when out in public. How you approach it is up to you. Just realize protection is for others even more so than yourself. If you are out in public in places that everyone has to use, like the grocery store and gas station, please wear a mask and gloves. You can make decisions for yourself to go to the gym or tattoo parlor but, when in places everyone has to use, if you choose not to use protection, you may be making a life or death decision on someone else. It is not an infringement of your liberties any more than not being allowed to yell, “Fire,” in a crowded theater when there is none is an infringement upon your 1st amendment rights. It is a minor inconvenience for a common courtesy.
On a personal level, I do have a friend who died of Covid-19. I have a relative infected in a nursing home who should have died (multiple severe health problems) but somehow didn't even have symptoms. My daughter is an emergency room physician and is on the front lines.

Thank you for the informative post. People should read this...and then read it again.

 

[dinglefritz]

If you live in Nebraska, hadn't traveled to either coast, or hung around anybody who had, your chances of having been infected with this particular virus in January are probably little more than your chances of being struck by lightning in Nebraska in January. Starting about the middle of February, I'm not nearly as certain.

We have a fair number of people who live and work in Omaha who travel internationally especially to Asia. I have little doubt that there were people infected with this virus in Omaha in mid to late January.

 

[dinglefritz]

Let me see if I respond to some of your queries but recognize I will be getting more into the realm of opinion or informed judgement. First, let me say I wish I had had the chance to ski with you. I love the steeps but age and injury have begun to catch up to me. Yes, it is possible there will never be a vaccine. It takes more than antibodies, it takes a vaccine to have an antigen that will produce neutralizing antibodies. That isn't always a given e.g. HIV. However, I believe that for corona viruses the thought it that a protective vaccine is highly possible. It takes time to establish that, to establish safety, and then to produce hundreds of millions of doses. Heck, it takes a year to produce the flu vaccine and that is conveniently grown in eggs and that doesn't work for corona virus.
Given the recognition that the virus is more infectious than previously assumed and given that reopening is a foregone conclusion there will be an uptick in cases particularly in places that have not been as slammed as NYC and NOLA and which therefore have fewer (presumably) immune individuals. Yes, this will lead to more deaths than had restrictions been kept in place but frankly while the restrictions have had a positive effect in keeping most hospitals from being overrun, I've been disappointed that the new case rate and mortality rate have been holding pretty much steady nationwide because we actually aren't very good at self-quarantining. I don't anticipate a second wave because I don't the first wave is going to decrease.
As I said in my OP, I advocate wearing a mask and gloves in places where all people have no choice but to go like grocery stores and gas stations. It is not inducing hysteria, this is common sense. If you are infectious, you will infect others. Now if it is a going to a bar, a restaurant, a gym that won't work but I sure as heck wouldn't want to be one of the employees at one of those places. I will choose not to go to those places for the foreseeable future. I am concerned enough about going back into the laboratory, an environment largely populated by young, immortals as I once was. Let me relate a story a colleague and collaborator emailed me today. He had been to the grocery story wearing a mask and was loading his groceries into his car. A guy walks up to him and says "I ain't wearin' no mask, motherf***er. Ain't no virus gonna kill me. F*** your mask." Unfortunately, that seems to be the attitude of some on this board. In a society your actions have consequences beyond yourself, particularly when it comes to a highly infectious virus.
As I've discussed in long buried posts, probably the most important role of government is the protection of its citizens. It is, therefore, the duty of the government to prepare for worst case scenarios. That is one reason why we spend so much on our military. Would you want a military that wasn't continually anticipating and preparing for a worst case scenario? I'd rather the government err on the side of caution here. It is not trampling your liberties, it is fulfilling the constitutional imperative of a government.
Yes, your mindset is based on your political beliefs and, yes, I agree that decisions naming which businesses are essential does seem pretty arbitrary. They are difficult decisions and I'm glad I'm not the one who has to make them.

Rural hospitals are going broke right now because they're not doing any elective procedures. Our 60 physician multispecialty clinic has had to drastically cut hours and eliminated Dr. pay for now due to having been told not to do elective procedures. Our local experience is that less than 10% of the positive cases have required hospitalization and the ones who have have all gone home so far. As far as exposing our most vulnerable goes, it's too late. It's a helluva lot smarter to lock up the most vulnerable than it is to lock up the young and healthy who need to be providing for their families. Locking down communities is not a workable solution.

 

[kerpal_68]

Rural hospitals are going broke right now because they're not doing any elective procedures. Our 60 physician multispecialty clinic has had to drastically cut hours and eliminated Dr. pay for now due to having been told not to do elective procedures. Our local experience is that less than 10% of the positive cases have required hospitalization and the ones who have have all gone home so far. As far as exposing our most vulnerable goes, it's too late. It's a helluva lot smarter to lock up the most vulnerable than it is to lock up the young and healthy who need to be providing for their families. Locking down communities is not a workable solution.

Assuming you know what area I'm from Avera is still predicting at peak 12k cases and 120 hospitalized at one time in the 7 county area here. As spread out as this virus has been I have no idea how they are still getting these numbers.

 

[Crazyhole]

Send the bill to China. Better yet. Don't pay back the debt we owe them.

Sounds great in theory, but they hold over 1.5t in us cash and invested heavily in our stock market. Piss them off and they can crash us overnight. Yeah, they would go down too but they're communist so they don't care if a bunch of people die.

 

[dinglefritz]

Assuming you know what area I'm from Avera is still predicting at peak 12k cases and 120 hospitalized at one time in the 7 county area here. As spread out as this virus has been I have no idea how they are still getting these numbers.

There's no way that happens. First of all it is looking more and more that IF you test positive you only have about a 1% chance of needing to be hospitalized. That is the experience in the packing plant cases. As we ramp up testing there will be more positive tests but the percentage of those people who require hospitalization is going to very low. Your area has only been testing sick people with suspected contact with a positive person up until recently. That artificially elevates the hospitalization rate. Avera is just regurgitating the worst case scenario from the CDC. That equates to what happened in New York City which is a very different environment than what Avera operates in. They'll see a rise in hospitalized patients but IMO it would occur regardless of whether or not their area "opened up".

 

[Solana Beach Husker]

The news regarding corona virus is coming fast and from a variety of sources. It can be difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff particularly when it is so easy to let one’s political beliefs color the interpretations. I want to present my interpretation of where things stand right now. First, let me give you some credentials and you can judge whether my interpretations are worth your time. I have a long career as a molecular biologist running a biomedical research lab at a medical school. I have more than a passing knowledge of virology, clinical medicine, and drug development. I am part of a grant application that seeks to develop a new therapeutic approach to treat Covid-19 patients. I don’t post often but I’ve been on this board well before it was segregated into a free board and a pay board.

The bottom line is that while we know a remarkable amount about a virus that we were unaware of just a short time ago, there remains more that we don’t know. Much of the molecular nature of the virus we know from studies on the corona virus that caused SARS. The current virus is related enough to that virus that it is officially named CoV-SARS-2. We know that two host, i.e. YOU, proteins, ACE2 and TMPRSS2 are required for viral entry. The viral SPIKE protein binds to the portion of the membrane bound ACE2 that sticks outside of the cell, often a cell that lines the surface of the lung alveoli. TMPRSS2 is a protease that clips the SPIKE protein, a processing step that is required for efficient viral entry. There are therapies being developed that are directed toward interfering with these processes.

Now to address the bigger population-based questions that get at the thorny question of setting policy. Right now, anyone that operates from a political viewpoint first and foremost can find some data or some study that supports their stance. The real answer is that there are problems with what data there are and until a lot more proper testing is done, we won’t be able to make informed decisions. There are arguments over just what the real viral infection rate is in the population. Initial numbers were skewed by the fact that so few tests were available that by and large, only symptomatic people were being tested. In addition, in trying to speed the bottleneck, the CDC broke one of its own rules and there were problems with contamination in the early testing. The central government has waived some of the stringent rules regarding the development and vetting of test kits and this policy is causing a big issue currently in accurately assessing infection rates. The two recent studies from USC and Stanford (which, last I knew, had not been peer reviewed) used a test kit that had been released without FDA approval. The false positive rate of that kit is 1.7%. If one is saying that 2 to 4% of the population is showing evidence of prior infection you can see why a background like that makes those numbers dubious. Other interpretations of that data suggest that it could be ten-fold less. Testing in other countries does suggest that the circulating level of virus is in the double digits. One could use this to argue either side of open up or not. The virus has a lower mortality rate than initially thought due to the population testing bias but this also means it is more infectious than thought. Data will continue to be suspect until enough of the test kits have been properly screened by the FDA and used to evaluate a big enough sample of the population in different states. Nonetheless, I suspect that within a month we will have a reasonably good handle on the frequency of infected people in the population. No estimate I’ve seen gives numbers that approach what is needed for herd immunity. That percentage ranges from more than 60% up to 95% depending on the infectivity of the virus. A highly infectious virus, like measles, is 95%. I suspect CoV-SARS-2 will be toward the upper end of this number and that means the virus will continue to circulate with local hotspots until herd immunity is reached or a vaccine comes online.

This virus is not like influenza. I’ve seen a lot of references to the H1N1 pandemic. Influenza viruses come in a lot of flavors and it is an educated guessing game to make a vaccine that will neutralize the right strains when you have to make decisions a year and more in advance. H1N1 represented a major antigenic shift so that the vaccines for that year were completely ineffective. H1N1 is actually less infectious than the predominant flu strains and older Americans had some immunity from an outbreak that had occurred years before. Younger people had not been exposed to H1 or N1 viruses so the flu hit them harder. Yes, flu kills a lot of people and yes, there has been a substantial effort to make a ‘universal’ flu vaccine. Yes, flu tends to kill those with underlying health problems, especially lung problems but the symptoms of Covid-19 are significantly worse than from flu as evidenced by the length of ICU stays, time on a ventilator, and overall length of hospital stays. The course of Covid-19 is unpredictable, a patient can be seeming to improve and then fall off a cliff. One issue is a cytokine storm that triggers a massive inflammatory response in the lungs which can completely compromise function. This can occur in someone who is otherwise completely healthy but it cannot be predicted, at this point, who will react that way. People exposed to particulates, farmers, some construction and industrial workers, for example, should be particularly careful since they may have a high baseline of inflammation or compromise of lung function already.

I’ve been following the numbers of cases and deaths closely. While there has been a lot of argument on this board over the accuracy (or lack thereof) of predictions and numbers, there is enough of a trend that won’t make either open uppers or stay at homers happy. Both mortality and total cases for the US overall have continued at a pretty constant rate for a while now. In places the curve has begun to drop a bit but that is counterbalanced by places where numbers are increasing more than linearly. Nebraska has fared pretty well so far thanks to a low population density and few tourists bringing it in. There are a couple of worrying developments of hot spots e.g. Grand Island with the potential to cause problems for local hospitals. The difficulties faced by rural hospitals even without Covid-19 is a huge issue of national concern. Take home message: no peak but a steady ongoing course of infections and deaths averaged over the nation.

Have stay at home orders worked? To a degree, yes. Two examples: Colorado had early outbreaks thanks to infected people coming into the state to ski. Early on it was number 4 or 5 in Covid-19 cases. Colorado’s governor instituted stay at home orders and closed many businesses. It now ranks 18th in total cases among states. A second example is seen by comparing Kentucky and Tennessee. Kentucky moved sooner with business closings and promoting social distancing and has less than half the number of cases as Tennessee. Now the bad news: as I said above, overall numbers aren’t going down. They have been holding pretty steady. With some notable exceptions, hospitals have not been overrun. I anticipate that the case rate and death rate will hold steady for the next month. That means we will have over 100,000 total Covid-related deaths in the US by June. I hope I’m wrong. (I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken- old joke, couldn’t resist).

Reopening soon is inevitable. I wish it would hold off for another 3 or 4 weeks until we have firmer numbers on infection rates that would inform as to how best to go about a staggered reopening, but I am realistic enough to know that it isn’t going to happen. Wrong decisions will mean an upturn in cases and deaths and could actually wind up shutting down some industries more than helping them back on their feet. I am eager to get back to work. My colleagues and I are working on developing a very promising cancer drug and progress is currently at a standstill as we cannot go to the lab for anything but essential maintenance. However, I am going to be smart about it for some time yet. I will work at home insofar as possible. I am not going to travel, I am not going to go to restaurants, not even a damn microbrewery, I am going to continue wearing a mask when out in public. How you approach it is up to you. Just realize protection is for others even more so than yourself. If you are out in public in places that everyone has to use, like the grocery store and gas station, please wear a mask and gloves. You can make decisions for yourself to go to the gym or tattoo parlor but, when in places everyone has to use, if you choose not to use protection, you may be making a life or death decision on someone else. It is not an infringement of your liberties any more than not being allowed to yell, “Fire,” in a crowded theater when there is none is an infringement upon your 1st amendment rights. It is a minor inconvenience for a common courtesy.
On a personal level, I do have a friend who died of Covid-19. I have a relative infected in a nursing home who should have died (multiple severe health problems) but somehow didn't even have symptoms. My daughter is an emergency room physician and is on the front lines.

Covid is not even half as bad as D-Day, which Americans show great courage in, and I expect today to show same courage and go to their bars and salons, and show bravery in spending their uncle sam dollars to help America, their boss needs them to keep America going but oltimately jesus decides if covid kills or not so I am happy.

 

[Solana Beach Husker]

Rural hospitals are going broke right now because they're not doing any elective procedures. Our 60 physician multispecialty clinic has had to drastically cut hours and eliminated Dr. pay for now due to having been told not to do elective procedures. Our local experience is that less than 10% of the positive cases have required hospitalization and the ones who have have all gone home so far. As far as exposing our most vulnerable goes, it's too late. It's a helluva lot smarter to lock up the most vulnerable than it is to lock up the young and healthy who need to be providing for their families. Locking down communities is not a workable solution.

Open society so that more people can have non-essential surgeries so for profit medicine can make profits so more people die.

Signed,
America 2020

 

[tarheelhusker]

 

[Iroh2]

Don’t try to use logic, the mob needs Trumpybear or Fox to tell them what to think... move along citizens, there are no issues....

 

[Baxter48]

Don’t try to use logic, the mob needs Trumpybear or Fox to tell them what to think... move along citizens, there are no issues....

Ok Fredo

 

[dinglefritz]

Open society so that more people can have non-essential surgeries so for profit medicine can make profits so more people die.

Signed,
America 2020

First of all, calling them "non-essential" surgeries is a false pretext. When a person can't function in their daily lives because of hip or knee pain and non-steroidals cease to help, that "elective" joint replacement has become ESSENTIAL. I've been there. I was at a point before I had my first hip done at age 50 that I either wanted the pain to stop or just die. It was that bad. Couldn't sleep lying down or sitting up.

Second, stopping ELECTIVE surgeries such as joint replacements DIDN'T SAVE A SINGLE LIFE! Not one. Some facilities in New York City and maybe urban New Jersey, couldn't handle doing them. That's all. The vast majority of other facilities in the U.S. simply lacked masks and gloves. Now the masks and gloves are available. The nurses and techs who had their hours slashed or were laid off need to go back to work. Their families depend on them and the $1200 government check isn't going to make their mortgage payment. Yeah I know though folks of your ilk would love for us all to be on a fixed government payroll no matter the skill or training. Equal outcomes for everyone.

 

[yort2000]

Sorry for the bump of this thread, but since the other remaining COVID thread spiraled into locked territory, I thought I would post this MORE GOOD NEWS here.

It looks like exposure to some common cold coronaviruses may provide protection against SARS-CoV-2. Reactive CD4+ T Cells detected in approx. 40-60% of unexposed individuals. The presence of these T Cells "may" provide out right immunity or lessen the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2.

 

[John_J_Rambo]

Sorry for the bump of this thread, but since the other remaining COVID thread spiraled into locked territory, I thought I would post this MORE GOOD NEWS here.

It looks like exposure to some common cold coronaviruses may provide protection against SARS-CoV-2. Reactive CD4+ T Cells detected in approx. 40-60% of unexposed individuals. The presence of these T Cells "may" provide out right immunity or lessen the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2.

View embedded media

Makes sense. Even in a tightly controlled environment where spread should be promoted (cruise ship), only 20% seem to be vulnerable to catching it.

counting down to that alarmist @Hoosker Du to come in here waiving his corona virus #1 foam finger...

 

[yort2000]

The above coupled with this non-peer reviewed mathematical study on variation of susceptibility stating COVID-19 may only need a 10%-20% infection rate to reach herd immunity means we may be at or close to herd immunity already. This study basically states that viruses run rampant through the most susceptible first and fastest leaving behind only less susceptible people to infect so you need lower infection rates to reach herd immunity. As a reminder, herd immunity doesn't mean no one will get infected by the virus, it just means that it won't run rampant through the entire population.



"As the pandemic unfolds evidence will accumulate in support of low or high coefficients of variation, but soon it will be too late for this to impact public health strategies unless we act pragmatically. We searched the literature for estimates of individual variation in the propensity to acquire or transmit several infectious diseases including COVID-19 and overlaid these estimates as vertical lines in Figure 3. CV estimates are mostly comprised between 2 and 4, a range where naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may place populations over the HIT once as few as 10-20% of its individuals are immune. This depends, however, on which specific 5 transmission traits are variable and how much the trait variants are distributed."


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v2

 

[jmliehr]

The above coupled with this non-peer reviewed mathematical study on variation of susceptibility stating COVID-19 may only need a 10%-20% infection rate to reach herd immunity means we may be at or close to herd immunity already. This study basically states that viruses run rampant through the most susceptible first and fastest leaving behind only less susceptible people to infect so you need lower infection rates to reach herd immunity. As a reminder, herd immunity doesn't mean no one will get infected by the virus, it just means that it won't run rampant through the entire population.



"As the pandemic unfolds evidence will accumulate in support of low or high coefficients of variation, but soon it will be too late for this to impact public health strategies unless we act pragmatically. We searched the literature for estimates of individual variation in the propensity to acquire or transmit several infectious diseases including COVID-19 and overlaid these estimates as vertical lines in Figure 3. CV estimates are mostly comprised between 2 and 4, a range where naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may place populations over the HIT once as few as 10-20% of its individuals are immune. This depends, however, on which specific 5 transmission traits are variable and how much the trait variants are distributed."


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v2

If we need 10-20% in the US, that is 30-60 million infections. So no, we are not anywhere close to that number.

 

[yort2000]

Makes sense. Even in a tightly controlled environment where spread should be promoted (cruise ship), only 20% seem to be vulnerable to catching it.

counting down to that alarmist hoosker du to come in here waiving his corona virus #1 foam finger...

Yes, and all the seroprevalence studies seem to be coming in in that 10%-20% infected range.

 

[yort2000]

If we need 10-20% in the US, that is 30-60 million infections. So no, we are not anywhere close to that number.

All the seroprevalence studies performed so far would disagree. Add into that the fact that 40%-60% of unexposed people may have the CD4+ T Cells, then things are looking pretty positive from where I'm standing.

 

[ZaneHickey]

If you live in Nebraska, hadn't traveled to either coast, or hung around anybody who had, your chances of having been infected with this particular virus in January are probably little more than your chances of being struck by lightning in Nebraska in January. Starting about the middle of February, I'm not nearly as certain.

Mid February is when our house was hit by an unusual illness that wasn't A or B.

 

[John_J_Rambo]

If we need 10-20% in the US, that is 30-60 million infections. So no, we are not anywhere close to that number.

we're at 2M just documented. experts say this has been here a lot longer than late Feb/early March when we documented our first case.

I'd be willing to bet we've had AT LEAST 10M infections over the last 6 months, and that's on the very conservative side.

 

[Charlie Marlow]

Well there’s that one non peer reviewed study that is a wild outlier to everything else out there so I’m guessing it’s fact!

 

[yort2000]

Well there’s that one non peer reviewed study that is a wild outlier to everything else out there so I’m guessing it’s fact!

Funny thing, are there any peer reviewed studies about this? It seems to me non-peer reviewed mathematical analysis was used to take all actions so far.

 

[yort2000]

Funny thing, are there any peer reviewed studies about this? It seems to me non-peer reviewed mathematical analysis was used to take all actions so far.

And, the original Imperial College model used to justify locking down the UK and the US had so many holes poked in it when other "scientists" started working with it. As an example, same inputs gave you different outputs if you used it on different computers or even the same computer changing from single to multi core functionality.

 

[ZaneHickey]

we're at 2M just documented. experts say this has been here a lot longer than late Feb/early March when we documented our first case.

I'd be willing to bet we've had AT LEAST 10M infections over the last 6 months, and that's on the very conservative side.

There have to many, many multiples of that 2M that are unofficial, but very real. I just rechecked New York stats. Age 0-18 death rate stands at 0/100,000. Age 18-44 is 18.1 per 100,000 or .018%. If states/teams are seriously worried about players getting hospitalized/dying from this...we are officially at a scientifically embarrassing point. If the fear is they will get it, not know it, then shower Grandma with the kisses she deserves, then just don't do the latter. Time to saddle-up, fellas! Starting the season will be a much-needed reassurance, for the collective Cornhusker-state psyche, to boot.

 

[WHCSC]

What’s with the stories I’m seeing about people getting the Covid a second time after recovering? I thought you were immune once you’ve had it.

 

[Crazyhole]

What’s with the stories I’m seeing about people getting the Covid a second time after recovering? I thought you were immune once you’ve had it.

The tests are recognizing dead viruses. They didn't get it again, it just hasn't been flushed out of their systems completely

 

[yort2000]

More non-peer reviewed research evidence for pre-existing immunity to SARS-Cov-2.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.14.095414v1

 

[John_J_Rambo]

More non-peer reviewed research evidence for pre-existing immunity to SARS-Cov-2.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.14.095414v1

peer-reviewed or gtfo

 

[dinglefritz]

Mid February is when our house was hit by an unusual illness that wasn't A or B.

Now they are saying that there are a tremendous number of false negative tests out there. One Dr. who was ill tested negative for the virus 3 times before he finally tested positive over 10 days in to his illness. So all of the "testing is the answer" people need to sit up and pay attention. Testing is not the panacea some seem to think. Testing for the actual virus is flawed. IF you're positive, you're positive. They've pretty much weeded out the tests that gave them false positives. IF you're negative for the virus? Maybe not so much.

 

[dinglefritz]

we're at 2M just documented. experts say this has been here a lot longer than late Feb/early March when we documented our first case.

I'd be willing to bet we've had AT LEAST 10M infections over the last 6 months, and that's on the very conservative side.

My educated guess is that is MUCH higher than 10 million. All you have to do is look at the huge number of asymptomatic positives they've gotten out of some large workplaces to come to that conclusion. I've seen several studies where over 97% of the positive tests were asymptomatic. Now we're finding out that there's a large number of false negatives to add on top that. We'll be fine.

 

[ZaneHickey]

Now they are saying that there are a tremendous number of false negative tests out there. One Dr. who was ill tested negative for the virus 3 times before he finally tested positive over 10 days in to his illness. So all of the "testing is the answer" people need to sit up and pay attention. Testing is not the panacea some seem to think. Testing for the actual virus is flawed. IF you're positive, you're positive. They've pretty much weeded out the tests that gave them false positives. IF you're negative for the virus? Maybe not so much.

Really, really wish the testing for antibodies was a warp-speed priority...of course, that assumes those tests are accurate!

 

[dinglefritz]

If we need 10-20% in the US, that is 30-60 million infections. So no, we are not anywhere close to that number.

I believe due to the huge number of false negative tests and the huge number of asymptomatic positives, that we're a LOT closer to that number than you think. IMO, we're already over 30 million. I posted that about a week ago in a different thread. I'm not saying this is suddenly going to go away at that rate because I don't think it will. I'm not willing to bet the farm that the cold I had a couple of months ago is going to protect me if I go swap air with another patron at a bar. Hopefully all of the knuckleheads that do will create population immunity quickly for the rest of us who are more cautious. BTW, the local 89 year old smoker with COPD who has been treated for a week now seems to be doing okay so far. Moral of the story, nicotine is not protective and thus far a comorbidity doesn't seem to be a death sentence.

 

[dinglefritz]

Really, really wish the testing for antibodies was a warp-speed priority...of course, that assumes those tests are accurate!

Antibody tests should be pretty good by now.

 

[dinglefritz]

New U.S. research puts the number of people who had COVID-19 in the U.S. by April 4th at a minimum of 5 million. Other news out of the U.K., the elderly on a statin such as Lipitor were 3 times less likely to have symptoms when infected with COVID-19. I would say that's more good news.

 

[Crazyhole]

I believe due to the huge number of false negative tests and the huge number of asymptomatic positives, that we're a LOT closer to that number than you think. IMO, we're already over 30 million. I posted that about a week ago in a different thread. I'm not saying this is suddenly going to go away at that rate because I don't think it will. I'm not willing to bet the farm that the cold I had a couple of months ago is going to protect me if I go swap air with another patron at a bar. Hopefully all of the knuckleheads that do will create population immunity quickly for the rest of us who are more cautious. BTW, the local 89 year old smoker with COPD who has been treated for a week now seems to be doing okay so far. Moral of the story, nicotine is not protective and thus far a comorbidity doesn't seem to be a death sentence.

Just assuming a .4% CFR and that the death numbers are accurate we would be over 21 million so far. Personally, I think .4% is high by at least a factor of 3.

 

[yort2000]

Just assuming a .4% CFR and that the death numbers are accurate we would be over 21 million so far. Personally, I think .4% is high by at least a factor of 3.

IFR based on Spanish seroprevalence study results released May 13, 2020:

IFR under 60 .052%
IFR under 70 .122%
IFR over 70 3.595%

 

[Crazyhole]

IFR based on Spanish seroprevalence study results released May 13, 2020:

IFR under 60 .052%
IFR under 70 .122%
IFR over 70 3.595%

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How pissed are people going to be when we find out this is basically just like the flu?