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Also that graph from 100 years ago without any source of statistical evidence is completely meaningless in this thread.

If you throw out a graph or number, please state the source.
I think it was the Omaha department of health was on 590 the other afternoon and he was the one that was using the statistics from 1919 where one city did basically nothing and they had a lot of problems and another city had quarantined and had very little problems. I highly doubt any more comparison was done
 
Also that graph from 100 years ago without any source of statistical evidence is completely meaningless in this thread.

If you throw out a graph or number, please state the source.
Good point. The best empirical evidence we do have on this isn't usually talked about.
The Princess cruise line incident.

Of fourthousand people, 17% became infected, and while I do need to find my source, and these numbers are off memory, the 17% number I'm sure of.
What I'm also sure of was 4000 people confined together,eating together,breathing through a shared hvac system, sharing handrails aboard ship,tables and chairs.
The final death rate was under 1%, the average age was ten years older than that of americas average age.

Now, 1% of 330 million is 3.3 million, and no one expects these numbers, but we arent aboard ship, and the alert is high now, response and helps better.

On feb 24th
https://thecount.com/2020/02/24/who-died-of-coronavirus-diamond-princess/
The four who had died at the time were all in their eighties,so typical of what we know.

If I can find follow up,or anyone has them, this is by far the best account of expectations, numbers high enough for real data, and people healthy enough to go cruising, which only imparts we need to keep this away from the older folks.
 
I think it was the Omaha department of health was on 590 the other afternoon and he was the one that was using the statistics from 1919 where one city did basically nothing and they had a lot of problems and another city had quarantined and had very little problems. I highly doubt any more comparison was done


here's the analysis from the paper linked above-- it looks like a fair amount of comparisons were done.
why don't you have a read of the paper and analysis -- I look forward to your scientific and statistical critique

Analysis. To avoid issues of reverse causality and reduce some forms of confounding, the data were analyzed in a fashion similar to an ‘‘intention to treat’’ analysis: that is, NPIs were scored on the date they were announced, and the duration, effectiveness, or other features of the intervention were not considered in the analysis. Associations between overall intervention timing and outcomes were assessed by Spearman rank correlation coefficients and associated P values calculated between the measures of overall response (number of interventions before CEPID x or CEPID at the time of the xth intervention) and the three outcome measures. Univariate associations between the timing of particular NPIs and the outcomes were also assessed by Spearman rank correlation coefficients and associated P values. In these cases, multivariate analyses were not performed because of the small sample size and strong collinearity of many intervention timings. Because of specific concerns that later-hit cities might have had milder epidemics for reasons other than interventions, we did perform linear regression of peak death rate on longitude and epidemic onset week, along with intervention timing (number of interventions before CEPID 20/100,000) and eliminated model variables by backward selection. For NPIs that showed significant or nearly significant overall correlations with outcomes, we divided cities as evenly as possible into early and late-intervening cities (eight in the early group and nine in the late or vice versa) and plotted the median outcome for each group. The round-numbered cutoff that created this division is shown in Fig. 2. Mann–Whitney U tests were used to assess statistical significance of differences in the distributions.
 
AND can the kids actually stay at home by themselves? Some can some can't. For those that can't, parent has to take off work?? Can't do that the rest of the year (school). A lot of the places that normally have activities probably won't so that not an option
Yeah it really sucks...congress is going to pass some emergency bills to help people who have to stay home with kids. It looks like the crazy from Britain is going to use herd immunity to fight this thing...basically let it run its course...we'll have to see if it works for them.
 
Yeah it really sucks...congress is going to pass some emergency bills to help people who have to stay home with kids. It looks like the crazy from Britain is going to use herd immunity to fight this thing...basically let it run its course...we'll have to see if it works for them.
Looking the same for ny city, leaving the schools open.
 
Good point. The best empirical evidence we do have on this isn't usually talked about.
The Princess cruise line incident.

Of fourthousand people, 17% became infected, and while I do need to find my source, and these numbers are off memory, the 17% number I'm sure of.
What I'm also sure of was 4000 people confined together,eating together,breathing through a shared hvac system, sharing handrails aboard ship,tables and chairs.
The final death rate was under 1%, the average age was ten years older than that of americas average age.

Now, 1% of 330 million is 3.3 million, and no one expects these numbers, but we arent aboard ship, and the alert is high now, response and helps better.

On feb 24th
https://thecount.com/2020/02/24/who-died-of-coronavirus-diamond-princess/
The four who had died at the time were all in their eighties,so typical of what we know.

If I can find follow up,or anyone has them, this is by far the best account of expectations, numbers high enough for real data, and people healthy enough to go cruising, which only imparts we need to keep this away from the older folks.

We just had 250 people die in Italy, in one region, in one day. People are having to be treated in outdoor tents and some are just left to die. At the height of the Spanish Flu 11000 people died in Philadelphia in one month...but at the rate of yesterday, 4k will die in that one area of Italy in one month. We have plenty of evidence that this thing can kill 100 to 200 people a day in a single region...
 
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We just had 250 people die in Italy, in one region, in one day. People are having to be treated in outdoor tents and some are just left to die. At the height of the Spanish Flu 11000 people died in Philadelphia in one month...but at the rate of yesterday, 4k will die in that one area of Italy in one month. We have plenty of evidence that this thing can kill 100 to 200 people a day in a single region...
This is just happening, we already have this data about the ship.
 
We just had 250 people die in Italy, in one region, in one day. People are having to be treated in outdoor tents and some are just left to die. At the height of the Spanish Flu 11000 people died in Philadelphia in one month...but at the rate of yesterday, 4k will die in that one area of Italy in one month. We have plenty of evidence that this thing can kill 100 to 200 people a day in a single region...
While it is tragedy there, context is important. The vast majority are those 80 or older.
We need to keep this away from these folks as a priority.

We've all heard the news about turning away the old for lack of staff and facities in Italy, because their health care systems are completely overloaded.
We can handle both here much better, lowering that peak on that curve, and making sure the older folks have better protections from this
 
Spain just turned all their planes around mid air and made em come back and is going lockdown.

I'm throwing axes tonight...if my girlfriend doesn't kill me with one of them the corona doesn't stand a chance.
 
Spain just turned all their planes around mid air and made em come back and is going lockdown.

I'm throwing axes tonight...if my girlfriend doesn't kill me with one of them the corona doesn't stand a chance.
I said at least a week ago that if we really wanted to slow this thing down, we would shut down commercial passenger air travel and mass transit. Tough to do. It's almost impossible in our "just in time" economy to shut things down even for a couple of weeks. I've got a niece vacationing in Europe right now. I'm sure she's not worried but it will hit home when she gets stuck in France or Ireland for weeks.
 
I said at least a week ago that if we really wanted to slow this thing down, we would shut down commercial passenger air travel and mass transit. Tough to do. It's almost impossible in our "just in time" economy to shut things down even for a couple of weeks. I've got a niece vacationing in Europe right now. I'm sure she's not worried but it will hit home when she gets stuck in France or Ireland for weeks.

People thought it wrong when we tried to just restrict travel to the select few cities in the country of origin a few short weeks ago...in spite of all the perfect hindsighters that are coming out of the woodwork now who would try to have us believe otherwise...America wasn't ready to go that far at that time...we didn't grasp it. We do now.
 
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While it is tragedy there, context is important. The vast majority are those 80 or older.
We need to keep this away from these folks as a priority.

We've all heard the news about turning away the old for lack of staff and facities in Italy, because their health care systems are completely overloaded.
We can handle both here much better, lowering that peak on that curve, and making sure the older folks have better protections from this
Recent findings suggest that some people who contract the virus may shed the virus for 4-6 weeks after they recover. For our healthcare situation this is horrible news. An infected nurse or Dr. could be off of work for weeks not just a few days as with influenza.
 
I’ve been wondering if this would be similar to a nuclear winter, but instead of nuclear fallout no sun we’re dealing with a virus
 
People thought it wrong when we tried to just restrict travel to the select few cities in the country of origin a few short weeks ago...in spite of all the perfect hindsighters that are coming out of the woodwork now who would try to have us believe otherwise...America wasn't ready to go that far at that time...we didn't grasp it. We do now.
Plenty of scientists have grasped the coronavirus threat long before the disease even emerged. America has chosen not to listen.
"Our work suggests a potential risk of SARS-CoV re-emergence from viruses currently circulating in bat populations."
"Importantly, the failure of available therapeutics defines a critical need for further study and for the development of treatments. With this knowledge, surveillance programs, diagnostic reagents and effective treatments can be produced that are protective against the emergence of group 2b–specific CoVs, such as SHC014, and these can be applied to other CoV branches that maintain similarly heterogeneous pools."(Menachery et al., 2015).

Nature Medicine article:
A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence

Much of what we are seeing is due to the normal course of how freak pandemics will run in a globalized world. But this is also the consequence of denying inconvenient truths, disinvesting in science, failing to enact the right policies, disbanding infrastructures, and putting unqualified people in charge of critical agencies.
 
Plenty of scientists have grasped the coronavirus threat long before the disease even emerged. America has chosen not to listen.
"Our work suggests a potential risk of SARS-CoV re-emergence from viruses currently circulating in bat populations."
"Importantly, the failure of available therapeutics defines a critical need for further study and for the development of treatments. With this knowledge, surveillance programs, diagnostic reagents and effective treatments can be produced that are protective against the emergence of group 2b–specific CoVs, such as SHC014, and these can be applied to other CoV branches that maintain similarly heterogeneous pools."(Menachery et al., 2015).

Nature Medicine article:
A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence

Much of what we are seeing is due to the normal course of how freak pandemics will run in a globalized world. But this is also the consequence of denying inconvenient truths, disinvesting in science, failing to enact the right policies, disbanding infrastructures, and putting unqualified people in charge of critical agencies.
Electrolytes.gif
 
This is just happening, we already have this data about the ship.
Yeah but you did the calculations yourself...then came up with 1.3 million cases in america, then backtracked and said that wouldn't happen. 1.3 million cases would be a miracle considering we get 40 million a year from the flu. The scary thing about viruses is even if they infect 17% of the population, and 15% are serious, 5% critical, 2% die that is still a hell of a lot of people, a lot of suffering, and a serious damage to economy and health care. We are a sick nation...we have self-caused conditions due to poor diet and lack of exercise that are not historical in nature. And we are the oldest society in the history of humanity. The hope from this is people realize that we are all interrelated, that a person who eats shiite, and doesn't exercise...a person who sits all day because their job requires it, or a person who eats fast food because they are moving from one job site to another will become a burden on society far beyond what they provide for society. And I am part of the problem... I sit too much, eat too poorly, I do not exercise enough, and I let my job dictate my diet and activity levels. I hope we learn how vulnerable we are because of our choices, not so much because of being human.
 
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While it is tragedy there, context is important. The vast majority are those 80 or older.
We need to keep this away from these folks as a priority.

We've all heard the news about turning away the old for lack of staff and facities in Italy, because their health care systems are completely overloaded.
We can handle both here much better, lowering that peak on that curve, and making sure the older folks have better protections from this

I am a tad bit afraid for younger Americans 40-60 because we have such high levels of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. I know middle aged people in Italy are healthier than Americans of the same age, especially in the midwest, and the south. Respiratory health is key with this sort of illness as a VO of 93 means you live and a VO of 90-91 basically puts in you at a coin flip for death.
 
I’ve been wondering if this would be similar to a nuclear winter, but instead of nuclear fallout no sun we’re dealing with a virus


Could be. At a 60-70% infection rate we should develop herd immunity. Or so I read. That’s the good news. The bad news is that would mean 84-98m people would die worldwide. I don’t expect it to get there. At some point we will get some positive news here. Science will come through. It just may not be until next winter or spring. I’m not necessarily talking about a vaccine, but simply a treatment.
 
Apparently ones who have no or very few symptoms have a higher viral load. I bet quite a few of us have it but don't realize it until it hits someone who is vulnerable.
 
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Plenty of scientists have grasped the coronavirus threat long before the disease even emerged. America has chosen not to listen.
"Our work suggests a potential risk of SARS-CoV re-emergence from viruses currently circulating in bat populations."
"Importantly, the failure of available therapeutics defines a critical need for further study and for the development of treatments. With this knowledge, surveillance programs, diagnostic reagents and effective treatments can be produced that are protective against the emergence of group 2b–specific CoVs, such as SHC014, and these can be applied to other CoV branches that maintain similarly heterogeneous pools."(Menachery et al., 2015).

Nature Medicine article:
A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence

Much of what we are seeing is due to the normal course of how freak pandemics will run in a globalized world. But this is also the consequence of denying inconvenient truths, disinvesting in science, failing to enact the right policies, disbanding infrastructures, and putting unqualified people in charge of critical agencies.
Question, those that were disbanded, did they continue to push for further testing and observation for greater understanding of potential hopping from the bats?
If so, could you please give their names?
 
Yeah but you did the calculations yourself...then came up with 1.3 million cases in america, then backtracked and said that wouldn't happen. 1.3 million cases would be a miracle considering we get 40 million a year from the flu. The scary thing about viruses is even if they infect 17% of the population, and 15% are serious, 5% critical, 2% die that is still a hell of a lot of people, a lot of suffering, and a serious damage to economy and health care. We are a sick nation...we have self-caused conditions due to poor diet and lack of exercise that are not historical in nature. And we are the oldest society in the history of humanity. The hope from this is people realize that we are all interrelated, that a person who eats shiite, and doesn't exercise...a person who sits all day because their job requires it, or a person who eats fast food because they are moving from one job site to another will become a burden on society far beyond what they provide for society. And I am part of the problem... I sit too much, eat too poorly, I do not exercise enough, and I let my job dictate my diet and activity levels. I hope we learn how vulnerable we are because of our choices, not so much because of being human.
I didn't do one calculation, not one, I just tried to recollect the numbers already compiled, which were 8 dead, all over 70 .
I used this, because diet and health are closer to those with three afflictions that are far less mobile.
We have this data, more reflective to the population here, healthy, with good cares etc.
 
I am a tad bit afraid for younger Americans 40-60 because we have such high levels of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. I know middle aged people in Italy are healthier than Americans of the same age, especially in the midwest, and the south. Respiratory health is key with this sort of illness as a VO of 93 means you live and a VO of 90-91 basically puts in you at a coin flip for death.
So, what are the numbers from Italy in the 40-60 age group that have died of the virus?
 
Yeah but you did the calculations yourself...then came up with 1.3 million cases in america, then backtracked and said that wouldn't happen. 1.3 million cases would be a miracle considering we get 40 million a year from the flu. The scary thing about viruses is even if they infect 17% of the population, and 15% are serious, 5% critical, 2% die that is still a hell of a lot of people, a lot of suffering, and a serious damage to economy and health care. We are a sick nation...we have self-caused conditions due to poor diet and lack of exercise that are not historical in nature. And we are the oldest society in the history of humanity. The hope from this is people realize that we are all interrelated, that a person who eats shiite, and doesn't exercise...a person who sits all day because their job requires it, or a person who eats fast food because they are moving from one job site to another will become a burden on society far beyond what they provide for society. And I am part of the problem... I sit too much, eat too poorly, I do not exercise enough, and I let my job dictate my diet and activity levels. I hope we learn how vulnerable we are because of our choices, not so much because of being human.
17% of 4000 is 680, of which 8 died, but it was over 4000, as the death rate was under 1%.

But agreed, 17% of 200 million, leaving out the younger age groups, and ball parked these numbers, thats 34 million people getting it, making for 340,000 deaths if its 1%. Thats alot.

But, I also dont know the ages and percentage by age and how its stacks up to our population.
They did say, the average age was ten years older than the average age for americans.
But unless those numbers are more granulated, its alot of guess work, but likely skewed to be higher aboard ship because of the ages aboard compared to america overall.
 
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So, what are the numbers from Italy in the 40-60 age group that have died of the virus?

By GlobalData Healthcare


Figure 1: Proportion of COVID-19 Deaths by Age Groups in Italy, Men and Women, ≥40 Years. Credit: GlobalData.

This week, the prime minister of Italy placed the entire country on lockdown in response to the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak.

The lockdown, which is expected to last through 3 April, has been issued as a quarantine measure to limit the spread of the coronavirus in the country as the number of cases continues to grow. Italy currently has the highest number of cases of Covid-19 outside of China, the epicentre of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak. With over 10,000 cases and over 600 deaths, Italy has been reported to have a higher death rate than the global average of 3.4%. A recent survey analysis from Italy’s Instituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) has reported that more than 56.6% of patients who have died from Covid-19 were over 80 years old, and more than two-thirds of the patients had pre-existing chronic conditions. The most common comorbidity was hypertension, followed by ischemic heart disease and diabetes.

Figure 1 presents the proportion of Covid-19 deaths by age groups for patients ages 40 years and older in Italy. The highest proportion of Covid-19 deaths was among the age group 80 years and older, at 56.6%.

The ISS has also noted that a significant proportion of people affected by Covid-19 are under the age of 30 years and that the age group may be a significant focus for transmission prevention measures. Targeting this younger age group may be one strategy used by health officials to combat the spread of the disease and reduce transmission. However, Italy should also focus on the older age group as a high-risk factor, especially for those ages 60 years and older who are more susceptible to Covid-19, and for those with pre-existing health conditions. In Italy, the number of people ages 60 years and older continues to grow annually and accounts for a higher proportion of the total population, compared to the US.
 
In Vitro Antiviral Activity and Projection of Optimized Dosing Design of Hydroxychloroquine for the Treatment of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
. Abstract
Background
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) first broke out in Wuhan (China) and subsequently spread worldwide. Chloroquine has been sporadically used in treating SARS-CoV-2 infection. Hydroxychloroquine shares the same mechanism of action as chloroquine, but its more tolerable safety profile makes it the preferred drug to treat malaria and autoimmune conditions. We propose that the immunomodulatory effect of hydroxychloroquine also may be useful in controlling the cytokine storm that occurs late-phase in critically ill SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. Currently, there is no evidence to support the use of hydroxychloroquine in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Methods
The pharmacological activity of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine was tested using SARS-CoV-2 infected Vero cells. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models (PBPK) were implemented for both drugs separately by integrating their in vitro data. Using the PBPK models, hydroxychloroquine concentrations in lung fluid were simulated under 5 different dosing regimens to explore the most effective regimen whilst considering the drug’s safety profile.

Results
Hydroxychloroquine (EC50=0.72 μM) was found to be more potent than chloroquine (EC50=5.47 μM) in vitro. Based on PBPK models results, a loading dose of 400 mg twice daily of hydroxychloroquine sulfate given orally, followed by a maintenance dose of 200 mg given twice daily for 4 days is recommended for SARS-CoV-2 infection, as it reached three times the potency of chloroquine phosphate when given 500 mg twice daily 5 days in advance.



Conclusions
Hydroxychloroquine was found to be more potent than chloroquine to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 in vitro.
 
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S Korea and the US identified their first case at about the same time.

to date the US has run just over 20,000 tests. S Korea runs this many tests per day.

They (SK) identified the young asymptomatic or nearly asymptomatic carriers and shut them down - our young carriers are off on spring break, going out to bars, playing in basketball tourneys etc

 
Last edited:
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In Vitro Antiviral Activity and Projection of Optimized Dosing Design of Hydroxychloroquine for the Treatment of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
. Abstract
Background
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) first broke out in Wuhan (China) and subsequently spread worldwide. Chloroquine has been sporadically used in treating SARS-CoV-2 infection. Hydroxychloroquine shares the same mechanism of action as chloroquine, but its more tolerable safety profile makes it the preferred drug to treat malaria and autoimmune conditions. We propose that the immunomodulatory effect of hydroxychloroquine also may be useful in controlling the cytokine storm that occurs late-phase in critically ill SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. Currently, there is no evidence to support the use of hydroxychloroquine in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Methods
The pharmacological activity of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine was tested using SARS-CoV-2 infected Vero cells. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models (PBPK) were implemented for both drugs separately by integrating their in vitro data. Using the PBPK models, hydroxychloroquine concentrations in lung fluid were simulated under 5 different dosing regimens to explore the most effective regimen whilst considering the drug’s safety profile.

Results
Hydroxychloroquine (EC50=0.72 μM) was found to be more potent than chloroquine (EC50=5.47 μM) in vitro. Based on PBPK models results, a loading dose of 400 mg twice daily of hydroxychloroquine sulfate given orally, followed by a maintenance dose of 200 mg given twice daily for 4 days is recommended for SARS-CoV-2 infection, as it reached three times the potency of chloroquine phosphate when given 500 mg twice daily 5 days in advance.



Conclusions
Hydroxychloroquine was found to be more potent than chloroquine to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 in vitro.
Unfortunately, these small molecule studies always seem promising, but the vast majority never turn out to have real efficacy in vivo to match their in vitro potential. With that said, this leads me to think that there is a potentially low risk (please drink responsibly!) and widely available option we can all try while we wait for a vaccine, antibodies, and/or an anti-viral drug to be developed: have a gin and tonic with dinner every night.

Chloroquine is a synthetic analog to quinine (the natural product from cinchona trees added to tonic water to give it its bitter taste). Quinine is also the longest used anti-malarial drug. It was discovered back around the time the British occupied India. Soldiers were given daily prophylactic doses of quinine to prevent malaria. Soldiers were having a hard time conforming to taking their daily quinine dosage because it was so bitter when taken straight up. So they started mixing it with their gin rations, and hence the gin and tonic was born.

So, will drinking gin and tonic help stave off or treat coronavirus? Very unlikely. I definitely would not recommend adhering to a gin and tonic regimen in place of proper medical care. But if you are well and enjoy having a cocktail in the evening, might as well make it a gin and tonic :)


gin-tonic-5a8f334b8e1b6e0036a9631d.jpg
 
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Welcome to our new reality. Spring break has started in our town.

Today my small church will attempt it's first online only service.

All classes at U of I and neighboring Wazzu are going online.

Our local school district, following spring break, will be closed for 2 additional weeks. All staff (if healthy) are expected to report to work. Surveys were already sent out to determine what kids had access to internet and a computer. How do we reach kids without these tools? How do we meet the needs of special ed students? How can we get food to students who rely on the school system for their only meals?

I feel very blessed that everyone in my family which stretches from Washington, the Bay Area, and Omaha are healthy. Needless to say I've postponed my trip back home.

Stay safe, everyone!
 
By GlobalData Healthcare


Figure 1: Proportion of COVID-19 Deaths by Age Groups in Italy, Men and Women, ≥40 Years. Credit: GlobalData.

This week, the prime minister of Italy placed the entire country on lockdown in response to the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak.

The lockdown, which is expected to last through 3 April, has been issued as a quarantine measure to limit the spread of the coronavirus in the country as the number of cases continues to grow. Italy currently has the highest number of cases of Covid-19 outside of China, the epicentre of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak. With over 10,000 cases and over 600 deaths, Italy has been reported to have a higher death rate than the global average of 3.4%. A recent survey analysis from Italy’s Instituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) has reported that more than 56.6% of patients who have died from Covid-19 were over 80 years old, and more than two-thirds of the patients had pre-existing chronic conditions. The most common comorbidity was hypertension, followed by ischemic heart disease and diabetes.

Figure 1 presents the proportion of Covid-19 deaths by age groups for patients ages 40 years and older in Italy. The highest proportion of Covid-19 deaths was among the age group 80 years and older, at 56.6%.

The ISS has also noted that a significant proportion of people affected by Covid-19 are under the age of 30 years and that the age group may be a significant focus for transmission prevention measures. Targeting this younger age group may be one strategy used by health officials to combat the spread of the disease and reduce transmission. However, Italy should also focus on the older age group as a high-risk factor, especially for those ages 60 years and older who are more susceptible to Covid-19, and for those with pre-existing health conditions. In Italy, the number of people ages 60 years and older continues to grow annually and accounts for a higher proportion of the total population, compared to the US.
Thanks!
Nice heads up on this as pertains to age groups, of which you can make guesstimates on health.
87%peoples 70 or older , the vast majority of the 13% is in the 60s at 10%, leaving just a little over 1% for those 50 and younger.
How we go forwards is critical for our elderly. Isolating them, hopefully finding a acceptable vaccine for them, plus improved cares .
For those of us in those age groups, we will have to create new habits as well.
 
In Vitro Antiviral Activity and Projection of Optimized Dosing Design of Hydroxychloroquine for the Treatment of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
. Abstract
Background
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) first broke out in Wuhan (China) and subsequently spread worldwide. Chloroquine has been sporadically used in treating SARS-CoV-2 infection. Hydroxychloroquine shares the same mechanism of action as chloroquine, but its more tolerable safety profile makes it the preferred drug to treat malaria and autoimmune conditions. We propose that the immunomodulatory effect of hydroxychloroquine also may be useful in controlling the cytokine storm that occurs late-phase in critically ill SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. Currently, there is no evidence to support the use of hydroxychloroquine in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Methods
The pharmacological activity of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine was tested using SARS-CoV-2 infected Vero cells. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models (PBPK) were implemented for both drugs separately by integrating their in vitro data. Using the PBPK models, hydroxychloroquine concentrations in lung fluid were simulated under 5 different dosing regimens to explore the most effective regimen whilst considering the drug’s safety profile.

Results
Hydroxychloroquine (EC50=0.72 μM) was found to be more potent than chloroquine (EC50=5.47 μM) in vitro. Based on PBPK models results, a loading dose of 400 mg twice daily of hydroxychloroquine sulfate given orally, followed by a maintenance dose of 200 mg given twice daily for 4 days is recommended for SARS-CoV-2 infection, as it reached three times the potency of chloroquine phosphate when given 500 mg twice daily 5 days in advance.



Conclusions
Hydroxychloroquine was found to be more potent than chloroquine to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 in vitro.
It doesn't like water,which makes sense,and of course thats aerosol based distributions.
If you want to buy stock, my guess, humidifier sales will increase.
Now being harsh here, but it appears the next trend/need/overreaction to happen.
And, many have lost monies.
But anyhow, this is simply my prediction,it really has nothing to do with anything,but it could come to fruition, and offset some folks losses, if they have such means.
 
Welcome to our new reality. Spring break has started in our town.

Today my small church will attempt it's first online only service.

All classes at U of I and neighboring Wazzu are going online.

Our local school district, following spring break, will be closed for 2 additional weeks. All staff (if healthy) are expected to report to work. Surveys were already sent out to determine what kids had access to internet and a computer. How do we reach kids without these tools? How do we meet the needs of special ed students? How can we get food to students who rely on the school system for their only meals?

I feel very blessed that everyone in my family which stretches from Washington, the Bay Area, and Omaha are healthy. Needless to say I've postponed my trip back home.

Stay safe, everyone!
Let us know how things are going in Washington,if you care to, since it's our ground zero in ways, where the local effect and societal responses have started the earliest, to see how folks are reacting, dealing with this new life.
The folks in Washington might be the first to see the light at the end of the tunnel as well.
 
Thanks!
Nice heads up on this as pertains to age groups, of which you can make guesstimates on health.
87%peoples 70 or older , the vast majority of the 13% is in the 60s at 10%, leaving just a little over 1% for those 50 and younger.
How we go forwards is critical for our elderly. Isolating them, hopefully finding a acceptable vaccine for them, plus improved cares .
For those of us in those age groups, we will have to create new habits as well.

some are overlooking what our Italian colleagues are telling us - that the impact on non C19 related illness is equally serious. When hospitals are stretched or maxed - the 55 yo who presents with a myocardial infarction or when your 17 yo daughter is in a motor vehicle accident - this care is greatly impacted and compromised. You aren't going to get the best care -- you are going to get the best care given the circumstances.

this isn’t just about caring for the C19 patients - it is about still trying to maintain high level care for everyone
 
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I think what some are overlooking and is what our Italian colleagues are telling us - that the impact on non C19 related illness is equally serious. When hospitals are stretched or maxed - the 55 yo who presents with a myocardial infarction or when your 17 yo daughter is in a motor vehicle accident - this care is greatly impacted and compromised. You aren't going to get the best care -- you are going to get the best care given the circumstances.

this isn’t just about caring for the C19 patients - it is about still trying to maintain high level care for everyone
Exactly. The wear and tear on our medical staffs will create mistakes, even if having the best materials at hand.
I'm just praying for the people of the world, our Italians friends and all others, but especially those med folks on the front lines.
 
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Let us know how things are going in Washington,if you care to, since it's our ground zero in ways, where the local effect and societal responses have started the earliest, to see how folks are reacting, dealing with this new life.
The folks in Washington might be the first to see the light at the end of the tunnel as well.

My son and family live in Kitsap County, which is across the Puget Sound from Seattle. (1 hour ferry ride.) Many of their friends are in Seattle. DIL went over to Seattle yesterday and described it as a ghost town. Anxiety levels are thru the roof.

The Seattle Times newspaper is allowing free access to their coverage of Covid 19. It gives you a good idea of what is going on in the area.
 
My son and family live in Kitsap County, which is across the Puget Sound from Seattle. (1 hour ferry ride.) Many of their friends are in Seattle. DIL went over to Seattle yesterday and described it as a ghost town. Anxiety levels are thru the roof.

The Seattle Times newspaper is allowing free access to their coverage of Covid 19. It gives you a good idea of what is going on in the area.
Yea, todays press giving straight news and for free of all things!
Thanks for that, it sounds like they're way ahead of the curve. At some point, hopefully we have a few tools before then, folks will simply need to get out some and breath easy,get some entertainment etc.

I hope, of course, solutions come sooner than later, so society stays at its best.
 
Welcome to our new reality. Spring break has started in our town.

Today my small church will attempt it's first online only service.

All classes at U of I and neighboring Wazzu are going online.

Our local school district, following spring break, will be closed for 2 additional weeks. All staff (if healthy) are expected to report to work. Surveys were already sent out to determine what kids had access to internet and a computer. How do we reach kids without these tools? How do we meet the needs of special ed students? How can we get food to students who rely on the school system for their only meals?

I feel very blessed that everyone in my family which stretches from Washington, the Bay Area, and Omaha are healthy. Needless to say I've postponed my trip back home.

Stay safe, everyone!
As soon as it gets warm I am bugging out to eastern washington. I heard UV light and heat is better. They have areas they have designated to get meals to kids and are at least saying every kid will have a meal
 
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