Calling my Shot

Clemke32

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Sep 29, 2017
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I didn't say expectations. I said what "greats"expect. We're not there yet at this time. A .70 win record would have been unacceptable in the 80s and 90s when we were up there as the "greats".

I never correlated it to my expectations for this year.

Personally on a 9 or 10 game season I'd be tickled pink with only 3 losses. Please read the whole thread. I was trying to explain where another poster might be coming from
not that I’ve actually taken the time to go look up the score and do the math, but that’s awesome that you have and all, but I’d be willing to bet that the Ohio state game skewed with those numbers a little... look I get it chicken little, the sky is falling in your world you’re doom and gloom, that’s great you’re free to see things how you want to... I look at the eye ball test, and realize that no two seasons are the same, I watch the game look for talent and at effort... I know what I see, I see a team that has more talent then what the record shows... I see a team that has to get out of its own way... I see the same record you do and it does suck, but part of the great thing about being a fan is every year is a New Year, and that brings new hope... I’m not going to drink the kool-Aid just yet, because I’ve been burnt by that before... but the talent is there deny it or not chicken little, that’s on you
 
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timnsun

Offensive Coordinator
Jan 25, 2008
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2018 average margin of loss in conference games ..... 14.6 points (4 home games - 5 road games)
2019 average margin of loss in conference games .....16.3 points ( 5 home games - 4 road games)


now on to the more complex part that involves looking deeper - if you are losing games by a wider margin in 2019 than you were in 2018 then you were, in fact, NOT "sticking closer to teams" or in a position to win more of those games than the year before
Blown out by Ohio state (no surprise) and minnesota (big surprise). That more than accounts for the rest of the season and the point differential. We easily could have beaten Iowa, Purdue and Indiana. Again, operative word is could have.

If we don’t lose by a combined total of 68 points to those 2 teams, the other 7 conference games were much closer than your stats suggest.

Yeah, like you, I have an agenda as well. It’s just a different agenda than yours.

I’m telling you, try the koolaid, you won’t be such a downer if you drink enough of it.
 

B1G RED RULES

Senior
Sep 7, 2013
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Purdue- W
NW- W
Illinois- W
Rutgers- W
Ohio State- L
Penn State- L
Iowa- W
Wisconsin- L (close loss, 24-21, they win on last second field, brutal game)
Minnesota- W
Extra Game: Michigan State- W (we whip Mel Tucker's ass, Frost runs up the score)
Why do we do this to ourselves? I guess nearly two decades of disappointments does this to programs.
 
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jlb321

Recruiting Coordinator
Aug 8, 2014
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Blown out by Ohio state (no surprise) and minnesota (big surprise). That more than accounts for the rest of the season and the point differential. We easily could have beaten Iowa, Purdue and Indiana. Again, operative word is could have.

If we don’t lose by a combined total of 68 points to those 2 teams, the other 7 conference games were much closer than your stats suggest.

Yeah, like you, I have an agenda as well. It’s just a different agenda than yours.

I’m telling you, try the koolaid, you won’t be such a downer if you drink enough of it.
ok let’s take out the 2 most lopsided conference losses from 2018 and 2019

remainder of the conference losses

2018 average loss 6.25 points
2019 average loss 7.5 points

we still lost by a wider margin in 2019 than 2018 despite having more home games ... not sure how anyone can argue progress was made

If you are going to have an agenda at least do the math
 
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huskerfan66

Head Coach
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not that I’ve actually taken the time to go look up the score and do the math, but that’s awesome that you have and all, but I’d be willing to bet that the Ohio state game skewed with those numbers a little... look I get it chicken little, the sky is falling in your world you’re doom and gloom, that’s great you’re free to see things how you want to... I look at the eye ball test, and realize that no two seasons are the same, I watch the game look for talent and at effort... I know what I see, I see a team that has more talent then what the record shows... I see a team that has to get out of its own way... I see the same record you do and it does suck, but part of the great thing about being a fan is every year is a New Year, and that brings new hope... I’m not going to drink the kool-Aid just yet, because I’ve been burnt by that before... but the talent is there deny it or not chicken little, that’s on you
Wow. You must be totally misunderstanding what I am saying or I'm not saying it clear enough.

Personally,at the current state of our program I would be tickled pink with this record at the end of this year.

What I was trying to explain was what Tru was POSSIBLY illuding to. It's sad in the big picture that we're happy with a70% win record. Didn't meet the standard of "great" team expectations. Yes we're not back to that level today.
 

scarletred

Nebraska Legend
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ok let’s take out the 2 most lopsided conference losses from 2018 and 2019

remainder of the conference losses

2018 average loss 6.25 points
2019 average loss 7.5 points

we still lost by a wider margin in 2019 than 2018 despite having more home games ... not sure how anyone can argue progress was made

If you are going to have an agenda at least do the math
Are you taking anything else in to account like how healthy the offense was in 2018 compared to 2019 during conference play?
 

timnsun

Offensive Coordinator
Jan 25, 2008
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ok let’s take out the 2 most lopsided conference losses from 2018 and 2019

remainder of the conference losses

2018 average loss 6.25 points
2019 average loss 7.5 points

we still lost by a wider margin in 2019 than 2018 despite having more home games ... not sure how anyone can argue progress was made

If you are going to have an agenda at least do the math
I concede. I didn’t do the math and should have. Could have saved me a post.

I know the end result is wins and losses. And it hasn’t been pretty. I’m hopeful that those 1 score losses we’ve incurred the last 2 years (6 of them, if I did my math correctly) will be victories this year. In 2018 all our conference victories were at home. In 2019 we learned how to win on the road, but lost all our home games. Let’s put it together on the road and at home and see what we got.

Losing games by 1 score says we are close. We just got to figure out how to win.
 

jlb321

Recruiting Coordinator
Aug 8, 2014
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Are you taking anything else in to account like how healthy the offense was in 2018 compared to 2019 during conference play?
If someone wants to look at Nebraska’s injuries each game and then look at each opponents injuries as well and then compare each game in 2018 and then 2019 they are welcome to do that detailed analysis

The point differentials are in reference to a poster’s statement claiming that Nebraska was “sticking closer to teams” and in a position to win more games in 2019 than 2018 which is false.
 
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timnsun

Offensive Coordinator
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Did I say "I" wouldn't be pleased with it? Tell me where or are you just looking for fight?
I saw where you posted in another thread but conveniently ignored this one.

Guess you were trolling after all.
 

DaServo

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Jul 21, 2020
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If someone wants to look at Nebraska’s injuries each game and then look at each opponents injuries as well and then compare each game in 2018 and then 2019 they are welcome to do that detailed analysis

The point differentials are in reference to a poster’s statement claiming that Nebraska was “sticking closer to teams” and in a position to win more games in 2019 than 2018 which is false.
It’s a familiar pattern. If your first argument doesn’t succeed throw out another stat. Whoops, that’s wrong too. Then throw out another meaningless stat, whoops, another fail. The straw man argument at its finest.

Bottom line, Nebraska has been a shell of its former self for 20 years. College Football is better when a team like Nebraska is a power house. The administration will be more patient with Frost.
 
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drenner00

Walk On
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The most straight forward explanation of why we didn’t see improvement in the win/loss column was due to Adrian’s performance in 2019. Now, did he have much help in the form of a depleted WR and TE stable, no doubt. Did he have an inexperienced center, yep. But, nevertheless, he had a sophomore slump, and, unfortunately, at this point in time of Frost’s program, we were not good enough to make up for his regression.

The promising thing is that I think we saw an improving offensive line, especially in November, with a really solid running attack down the stretch. I also saw an improving defense, even without a true pass rusher. I thought our defense performed pretty well against Wiscy and Iowa down the stretch.

I think there are legitimate reasons to believe that Adrian will have a much better season this year (guys like Omar and Wandale come to mind), that our offensive line could be the strength of our team, that our defensive backfield will be filled with experienced playmakers, and that we have some young studs on the D line. We certainly still have holes and inexperience in some positions, but I am (very) cautiously optimistic.
 
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jlb321

Recruiting Coordinator
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Another very important point..
these are valid points but pivots the discussion away from the original claim that there was improvement in 2019 vs 2018.

The points brought up seem to concede that there was not improvement with the focus shifting to addressing the question of why Nebraska didn’t improve

kicking game etc surely plays a role

is it enough to offset the typical improvement a program sees from year 1 to 2 after a new hire? Studies looking at this have shown the most improvement comes in year 2 particularly if the replaced coach was let go due to on field performance

Returning starting QB (a freshman all American and on a heisman list no less) is another big predictor of anticipated improvement.


Neb was 3-7 against power 5 teams in 2018
and 3-7 in 2019

I’m not including non power 5 teams as they are not peer programs

https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa190362

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/12/27/14088090/new-college-football-coaches
 
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scarletred

Nebraska Legend
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I’m taking into consideration what Riley left for SF to work with...

I know you don’t like hearing this because your a Mile Riley disciple..
 
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jlb321

Recruiting Coordinator
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I’m taking into consideration what Riley left for SF to work with...

I know you don’t like hearing this because your a Mile Riley disciple..
not a Riley disciple at all ... he was a horrible coach ....

perhaps there are some unique features that makes Nebraska an outlier with regards to the study I posted showing the greatest improvement should come between year 1 and year 2 - which should be more dramatic if the coach you fired was due to poor on field performance - clearly a category Nebraska falls in

there should be pretty dramatic improvement in year 3 - the lower the bar the easier it is to show dramatic improvement.
 
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scarletred

Nebraska Legend
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not a Riley disciple at all ... he was a horrible coach ....

perhaps there are some unique features that makes Nebraska an outlier with regards to the study I posted showing the greatest improvement should come between year 1 and year 2 - particularly if the coach you fired was due to poor on field performance - clearly a category Nebraska falls in

there should be pretty dramatic improvement in year 3 - the lower the bar the easier it is to show dramatic improvement.
It’s taken some time getting back what were suppose to look like in the weight room and that doesn’t happen with a flip of a switch. I expect to be more physical on both sides of the ball and it has taken time to restock the shelves with SF type players on offense that he needs to run the kind of offense that we seen similar to UCF..

Hate to use Iowa Captain KF but it took him 4 years to be a Big 10 contender..
 

jlb321

Recruiting Coordinator
Aug 8, 2014
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It’s taken some time getting back what were suppose to look like in the weight room and that doesn’t happen with a flip of a switch. I expect to be more physical on both sides of the ball and it has taken time to restock the shelves with SF type players on offense that he needs to run the kind of offense that we seen similar to UCF..

Hate to use Iowa Captain KF but it took him 4 years to be a Big 10 contender..
I would be interested to see how many power 5 coaches took over a program that won only 3 power 5 games the year before and did not improve on that total in either of the first 2 years

Kirk Ferentz is a good example and hopefully the improvement at Nebraska in Frosts first 6 years mirrors Ferentz. If we are going to use Ferentz’s first 3 years as a barometer then it is also fair to use his next 3 (years 4-6) where he
was co big ten champion - played in a NY6 equivalent bowl and finished in the top 10 in years 4,5,6. So by Ferentz standards - which are often quoted here - we should expect 3 top 10 finishes in the next 4 years.
 

scarletred

Nebraska Legend
Jun 17, 2001
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I would be interested to see how many power 5 coaches took over a program that won only 3 power 5 games the year before and did not improve on that total in either of the first 2 years

Kirk Ferentz is a good example and hopefully the improvement at Nebraska in Frosts first 6 years mirrors Ferentz. If we are going to use Ferentz’s first 3 years as a barometer then it is also fair to use his next 3 (years 4-6) where he
was co big ten champion - played in a NY6 equivalent bowl and finished in the top 10 in years 4,5,6. So by Ferentz standards - which are often quoted here - we should expect 3 top 10 finishes in the next 4 years.
Let”s also point out the Big10 didn’t have divisions and CCG..So I guess we’ll have to wait won’t we.
 

jlb321

Recruiting Coordinator
Aug 8, 2014
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Let”s also point out the Big10 didn’t have divisions and CCG..So I guess we’ll have to wait won’t we.
That should have no bearing on top 10 finishes or whether Nebraska has the best or tied for the best regular season conference record prior to any CCG
 

phoenix4nu

All-American
May 10, 2009
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I’m taking into consideration what Riley left for SF to work with...

I know you don’t like hearing this because your a Mile Riley disciple..
Same could be said in defense of Riley’s records. Pelini didn’t leave him much.
 

scarletred

Nebraska Legend
Jun 17, 2001
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Same could be said in defense of Riley’s records. Pelini didn’t leave him much.
Riley had more talent here than in Corvallis when he left...Only thing they both had to adjust to is different type offenses.. Riley didn’t have WCO QB and when he did in 2017 they were worse..
 

timnsun

Offensive Coordinator
Jan 25, 2008
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Unfortunately, many Nebraska fans have morphed into Iowa fans based on their expectations and definition of success.
Disagree. Many Nebraska fans are patient and willing to give Frost more than 3 years to get the job done. Many Nebraska fans recognize it’ll take more time than they would like.

When you are at the bottom looking up, many Nebraska fans realize it’s ok if it takes more than one giant leap to get there.
 

jlb321

Recruiting Coordinator
Aug 8, 2014
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I like to use reality and logic. I understand what I see. I’m not doing anything to myself
LOL -- a lot of posters were using this "reality and logic" and what they "see" to predict 9-10 wins for the 2019 season - for all we know you were one of them
 
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timnsun

Offensive Coordinator
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LOL -- a lot of posters were using this "reality and logic" and what they "see" to predict 9-10 wins for the 2019 season - for all we know you were one of them
What gets me is how much joy you take in constantly going after sunshine pumpers.

What will you do when Nebraska is winning 10+ games a season? You will need to find a new purpose in life...
 

jlb321

Recruiting Coordinator
Aug 8, 2014
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What gets me is how much joy you take in constantly going after sunshine pumpers.

What will you do when Nebraska is winning 10+ games a season? You will need to find a new purpose in life...
have no problem if someone predicts 9-10 wins or whatever -- but don't come at us/me with bullshit about logic and reason and how they "understand what they are seeing" so much better than the rest of us - particularly if, like many, they might have been spouting the same nonsense the year prior about winning a bunch of games

I try to keep things pretty objective - I don't have a lot of tolerance for someone who likely doesn't know shit (like the rest of us) - explaining how 3 power 5 wins for the second straight year shows some type of progress because he/she "understands what they are seeing" or is using some type of superior logic that the rest of us just can't summon
 

timnsun

Offensive Coordinator
Jan 25, 2008
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have no problem if someone predicts 9-10 wins or whatever -- but don't come at us/me with bullshit about logic and reason and how they "understand what they are seeing" so much better than the rest of us - particularly if, like many, they might have been spouting the same nonsense the year prior about winning a bunch of games

I try to keep things pretty objective - I don't have a lot of tolerance for someone who likely doesn't know shit (like the rest of us) - explaining how 3 power 5 wins for the second straight year shows some type of progress because he/she "understands what they are seeing" or is using some type of superior logic that the rest of us just can't summon
I get that. I guess I was referencing your body of work, not just in this thread.

I do believe if AM played last year the way he played as a freshman, we win at least 2 more games, likely 3, and we aren’t having this conversation. He didn’t play at all against Indiana, was ineffective against Purdue, and threw the pick before the half against Iowa.

I know that you can easily come back with other scenarios that show we could have lost to northwestern and Illinois, and probably will, but to my untrained eye, we progressed.

I am not an expert, even self-proclaimed... As I’ve said many times in the past, I am not an X’s and O’s guy. What I see doesn’t mean you need to see it, nor does it mean my opinion is better than yours. It’s just my opinion.
 

jlb321

Recruiting Coordinator
Aug 8, 2014
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I get that. I guess I was referencing your body of work, not just in this thread.

I do believe if AM played last year the way he played as a freshman, we win at least 2 more games, likely 3, and we aren’t having this conversation. He didn’t play at all against Indiana, was ineffective against Purdue, and threw the pick before the half against Iowa.

I know that you can easily come back with other scenarios that show we could have lost to northwestern and Illinois, and probably will, but to my untrained eye, we progressed.

I am not an expert, even self-proclaimed... As I’ve said many times in the past, I am not an X’s and O’s guy. What I see doesn’t mean you need to see it, nor does it mean my opinion is better than yours. It’s just my opinion.
that’s fair ... for me personally I saw 3 conference wins for the second year in a row and a second straight loss to an abysmal Colorado team that had a brand new staff.

those are facts - all the talk around those facts is just conjecture. If Nebraska had hired Mel Tucker in 2018 rather than Scott Frost the narrative around the last 2 seasons, I believe, would have been completely different - despite everything else being the same
 
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timnsun

Offensive Coordinator
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that’s fair ... for me personally I saw 3 conference wins for the second year in a row and a second straight loss to an abysmal Colorado team that had a brand new staff.

those are facts - all the talk around those facts is just conjecture. If the above would have been Iowa or had we hired Mel Tucker in 2018 rather than Scott Frost the narrative around the last 2 seasons, I believe, would have been completely different - despite everything else being the same

a true case study in unconscious bias - IMO
Can’t disagree with you here... one question I would ask, and maybe it wouldn’t make a difference, who knows... if we hired Mel Tucker after a 13-0 season, I do believe people would be more patient. I think...
 

scarletred

Nebraska Legend
Jun 17, 2001
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that’s fair ... for me personally I saw 3 conference wins for the second year in a row and a second straight loss to an abysmal Colorado team that had a brand new staff.

those are facts - all the talk around those facts is just conjecture. If Nebraska had hired Mel Tucker in 2018 rather than Scott Frost the narrative around the last 2 seasons, I believe, would have been completely different - despite everything else being the same
Granted the staff crapped the bed in the 2nd half of the Colorado game and again if we had our starting Kicker good change we might not of lost that game... SF called tentative plays in that OT knowing he didn’t have confidence in the kicker..

Still pisses me off :mad:driving all that way from Omaha and watch us lose that game he had no business losing..
 
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Jhollenbeck41

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LOL -- a lot of posters were using this "reality and logic" and what they "see" to predict 9-10 wins for the 2019 season - for all we know you were one of them
I said 9, possible 10 if we got lucky. I’ve rewatched them enough to know the 1-2 plays that cost us those games, and they’re all self inflicted, excluding Ohio state. Look I don’t care if you shit on this party but the difference is that you’re refusing to acknowledge the progress because they ended up in losses. I can respect that. But you can’t tell me I’m wrong for “being able to see it” just because you refuse to care if it’s a loss.
 
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jlb321

Recruiting Coordinator
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I said 9, possible 10 if we got lucky. I’ve rewatched them enough to know the 1-2 plays that cost us those games, and they’re all self inflicted, excluding Ohio state. Look I don’t care if you shit on this party but the difference is that you’re refusing to acknowledge the progress because they ended up in losses. I can respect that. But you can’t tell me I’m wrong for “being able to see it” just because you refuse to care if it’s a loss.
they ended up in losses by more points than the previous year.

In what world does losing the same number of games by a wider margin and finishing further down in the standings represent progress

if based on what you saw in 2018 you were expecting 9-10 wins in 2019 then forgive me if I don’t trust your eyes
 
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