Big Ten Meeting this morning - cancelling season?

Truehuskerfan

Athletic Director
May 1, 2003
15,266
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The "postponing" the season is utter nonsense, and the people who are pushing it know it. There is not the slimmest chance in the world they are going to play in the spring. It's just a "kick the can down the road" move to give people some (false) hope.
 

Harry Caray

Head Coach
Feb 28, 2002
12,754
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They should let college athletes volunteer to be test subjects for vaccines. Those that don’t want the vaccine can play at their own risk and sign a waiver.

Cancelling the football season and March Madness will be the end of the NCAA and college sports as we know it. Athletic Departments will be bankrupt (unless they can get a government bail-out). Football and Men’s Basketball will likely become semi-pro leagues. Non-revenue sports will become like the club teams that are funded by players and donors.
 

jlb321

Recruiting Coordinator
Aug 8, 2014
6,961
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The "postponing" the season is utter nonsense, and the people who are pushing it know it. There is not the slimmest chance in the world they are going to play in the spring. It's just a "kick the can down the road" move to give people some (false) hope.
Unfortunately the same could probably be said about releasing a schedule of games that likely weren’t going to be played
 

Truehuskerfan

Athletic Director
May 1, 2003
15,266
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Unfortunately the same could probably be said about releasing a schedule of games that likely weren’t going to be played
Yes-I really don't understand what the point would be in coming up with a new schedule of games, and then canceling it all less than a week later. Why go through the whole charade? Not only did you give people false hope, but you made people try to change their plans around the new schedule. Horribly thought out and executed.
 
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NorthWillRiseAgain

Recruiting Coordinator
Dec 14, 2004
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It sucks we’re letting the schools who cannot afford a season such as this, end it for everyone.

the ones that can afford testing and would get the tv revenue to make it worth it should play if the team as a whole wants to(most big name teams).
 

Baxter48

All-American
Sep 22, 2010
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Gods country
We arent going to have a vaccine by spring. If that is truly the time things will return to normal we likely wont see a 2021 season either.
That’s what I’ve been trying to say, there’s no magic pill that’s going to cure this. So big deal let’s move everything to the spring of 21, guess what the virus will still be around
 
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NikkiSixx

Graduate Assistant
Sep 14, 2013
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Universities won’t be able to pay staff salaries without a season unless donors come in to provide that.

there will have to be furloughs and you could see some contracts end, depending on the language in different contracts.

If a university has high debt payments for things like facility upgrades, those would likely go unpaid as well. Could really cause a massive domino effect, and could threaten some schools ability to survive.
 
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schuele

Athletic Director
Apr 17, 2005
13,767
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In the early summer I was 100% certain the university presidents would pull the plug on the fall sports season. Then as workouts progressed, I let myself think otherwise.
 

yort2000

Junior
Jan 23, 2007
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when the united states didn't use masks and stopped their lockdown and opened bars and restaurants the infection rates increased dramatically. so what gives?

Well, I will only speak to St. Charles County, MO where I live, but I'm sure a lot of this is going to apply to what is going on throughout the US. Here is a chart of St. Charles County Cases:



Missouri stay at home order issued April 6th. Phase 1 Opening began on May 4th. All businesses open with social distancing adherence. I was eating out at restaurants from that day forward: No masks on patrons. Employees with masks. Seating every other table. Bars at the restaurants had stools two together spaced out. After about 3 weeks, the table spacing decreased and there were more stools at the bar. From May 4th on, my wife was attending her fitness classes. No masks at work. Do you see a big spike from opening up? Me either.

But wait, what about phase 2 (no rules) looking like it caused the July spike. Phase 2 was pretty much a nothing burger because throughout May and early June the social distancing guidelines adherence at the restaurants I went to was decreasing and a lot of stuff was already operating as if it was Phase 2.

So, what caused this spike in cases? Well, Item 1 is extreme increase in testing.



So, you test more people, you're going to find more cases. But wait, the percent positive tests started ticking up also. So, something else is going on.

Throughout July, St. Charles County averaged 911 reported tests per day. So, I built the following chart to show the hypothetical cases based on the daily percent positive if they had been doing 911 tests per day since they started testing. (But wait you say, if they were doing more tests the percent positive would likely go down. I don't think so, because they were only testing symptomatic people early, but 50%-80% of the cases may be asymptomatic (see below) so, I think the percent positive may have increased even more because it is looking like the asymptomatic is closer to the 80% than the 50%). This chart takes the testing increase out of the equation and shows a truer picture of the "spread" of the virus.



So, that increase in late June and July is not normally how a viruses life cycle occurs in nature. So what is the cause of this "spike"? Item 2 on increased cases is the increased testing of people with no symptoms. It appears that asymptomatic individuals are a greater percent of infected individuals, so you more than doubled the pool of finding "cases" because you increased your odds of finding them.

This however doesn't explain all of it as lockdowns did disrupt one important vector of transmission - schools, especially colleges. Missouri closed schools in mid-March. So, as things started easing and people became more confident some of the spheres of friends that were cut off came back together giving the virus another go at susceptible individuals it didn't have access to before. That is why the average age of positive cases in July skewed heavily younger than the positive cases from March, April, and May. The other reason the positives skew younger is that younger people are more likely to be asymptomatic and they didn't really start testing people without symptoms heavily until late June and July.


Asymptomatic percentages:

 

ATLsker

Walk On
Sep 1, 2009
141
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Let's be clear about something. We very well could have played this season if we hadn't screwed everything up so bad as a country. Other affluent nations have been able to have sports such as soccer with modifications. IMO there are three things holding us back:
  1. The lack of any sort of national strategy to test, trace, etc. and use the resources we have as one of the wealthiest countries on earth to fight this thing
  2. Complete laziness and ignorance by a swath of Americans that can't handle sacrificing short term pain for long term gain
  3. A for-profit healthcare system that could care less about the suffering going on when they can make a killing off things such as tests that take 7 days to get the results
The commissioners and presidents are seeing data that if we play, maybe a couple football players will die, and maybe a few dozen will have career ending health problems. Even more will have friends and family that die and have long term health problems. Football alone will not cause all coronavirus related suffering, but it will definitely cause enough havoc that you cannot proceed under the current conditions.
 

Baxter48

All-American
Sep 22, 2010
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Gods country
Let's be clear about something. We very well could have played this season if we hadn't screwed everything up so bad as a country. Other affluent nations have been able to have sports such as soccer with modifications. IMO there are three things holding us back:
  1. The lack of any sort of national strategy to test, trace, etc. and use the resources we have as one of the wealthiest countries on earth to fight this thing
  2. Complete laziness and ignorance by a swath of Americans that can't handle sacrificing short term pain for long term gain
  3. A for-profit healthcare system that could care less about the suffering going on when they can make a killing off things such as tests that take 7 days to get the results
The commissioners and presidents are seeing data that if we play, maybe a couple football players will die, and maybe a few dozen will have career ending health problems. Even more will have friends and family that die and have long term health problems. Football alone will not cause all coronavirus related suffering, but it will definitely cause enough havoc that you cannot proceed under the current conditions.
What ever
 

Harry Caray

Head Coach
Feb 28, 2002
12,754
8,434
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Well, I will only speak to St. Charles County, MO where I live, but I'm sure a lot of this is going to apply to what is going on throughout the US. Here is a chart of St. Charles County Cases:



Missouri stay at home order issued April 6th. Phase 1 Opening began on May 4th. All businesses open with social distancing adherence. I was eating out at restaurants from that day forward: No masks on patrons. Employees with masks. Seating every other table. Bars at the restaurants had stools two together spaced out. After about 3 weeks, the table spacing decreased and there were more stools at the bar. From May 4th on, my wife was attending her fitness classes. No masks at work. Do you see a big spike from opening up? Me either.

But wait, what about phase 2 (no rules) looking like it caused the July spike. Phase 2 was pretty much a nothing burger because throughout May and early June the social distancing guidelines adherence at the restaurants I went to was decreasing and a lot of stuff was already operating as if it was Phase 2.

So, what caused this spike in cases? Well, Item 1 is extreme increase in testing.



So, you test more people, you're going to find more cases. But wait, the percent positive tests started ticking up also. So, something else is going on.

Throughout July, St. Charles County averaged 911 reported tests per day. So, I built the following chart to show the hypothetical cases based on the daily percent positive if they had been doing 911 tests per day since they started testing. (But wait you say, if they were doing more tests the percent positive would likely go down. I don't think so, because they were only testing symptomatic people early, but 50%-80% of the cases may be asymptomatic (see below) so, I think the percent positive may have increased even more because it is looking like the asymptomatic is closer to the 80% than the 50%). This chart takes the testing increase out of the equation and shows a truer picture of the "spread" of the virus.



So, that increase in late June and July is not normally how a viruses life cycle occurs in nature. So what is the cause of this "spike"? Item 2 on increased cases is the increased testing of people with no symptoms. It appears that asymptomatic individuals are a greater percent of infected individuals, so you more than doubled the pool of finding "cases" because you increased your odds of finding them.

This however doesn't explain all of it as lockdowns did disrupt one important vector of transmission - schools, especially colleges. Missouri closed schools in mid-March. So, as things started easing and people became more confident some of the spheres of friends that were cut off came back together giving the virus another go at susceptible individuals it didn't have access to before. That is why the average age of positive cases in July skewed heavily younger than the positive cases from March, April, and May. The other reason the positives skew younger is that younger people are more likely to be asymptomatic and they didn't really start testing people without symptoms heavily until late June and July.


Asymptomatic percentages:

Cases were going way down until the George Floyd protests started. When everyone saw thousands of people packing close together in the streets, they said "F this, I'm not social distancing anymore".
 

dinglefritz

College Football Hall of Fame
Jan 14, 2011
23,964
17,666
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when the united states didn't use masks and stopped their lockdown and opened bars and restaurants the infection rates increased dramatically. so what gives?
That also coincidentally would correlate with what one could expect as the virus spread from young protestors down the line to more susceptible people. In epidemiological terms, a virus like this takes time to multiply and find susceptible hosts outside the largely youthful demographic of protestors. I'm not saying bars aren't a factor. I'm saying that it was multi-factorial.
 
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Crazyhole

Junior
Jun 4, 2004
1,871
2,634
113
Let's be clear about something. We very well could have played this season if we hadn't screwed everything up so bad as a country. Other affluent nations have been able to have sports such as soccer with modifications. IMO there are three things holding us back:
  1. The lack of any sort of national strategy to test, trace, etc. and use the resources we have as one of the wealthiest countries on earth to fight this thing
  2. Complete laziness and ignorance by a swath of Americans that can't handle sacrificing short term pain for long term gain
  3. A for-profit healthcare system that could care less about the suffering going on when they can make a killing off things such as tests that take 7 days to get the results
The commissioners and presidents are seeing data that if we play, maybe a couple football players will die, and maybe a few dozen will have career ending health problems. Even more will have friends and family that die and have long term health problems. Football alone will not cause all coronavirus related suffering, but it will definitely cause enough havoc that you cannot proceed under the current conditions.
If we play has nothing to do with whether athletes are going to get the virus. Its nonsensical at best.
 

Husker4lyfe15

Newbie
Aug 18, 2019
58
67
18
Welp this is what happens when people didn’t take this seriously in March and then reopened at the drop of a hat In early June. But it’s all a hoax still.
 

PCastro

Walk On
Jul 20, 2019
376
463
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99.96% survival rate. People are not being forced to attend games. Players aren't being forced to play. If it hasn't been done, they can be given an opt out and keep their scholarship. This isn't that hard.
You mean give people the freedom to choose. That doesn’t happen anymore. This ain’t a free country dammit!!
 
Dec 20, 2006
273
308
63
Yes-I really don't understand what the point would be in coming up with a new schedule of games, and then canceling it all less than a week later. Why go through the whole charade? Not only did you give people false hope, but you made people try to change their plans around the new schedule. Horribly thought out and executed.
That's me. I just switched my vacation from labor day to the next week for the first home game. This hemming and hawing is beyond ridiculous. Make up ur mind big 10.
 

dinglefritz

College Football Hall of Fame
Jan 14, 2011
23,964
17,666
113
Let's be clear about something. We very well could have played this season if we hadn't screwed everything up so bad as a country. Other affluent nations have been able to have sports such as soccer with modifications. IMO there are three things holding us back:
  1. The lack of any sort of national strategy to test, trace, etc. and use the resources we have as one of the wealthiest countries on earth to fight this thing
  2. Complete laziness and ignorance by a swath of Americans that can't handle sacrificing short term pain for long term gain
  3. A for-profit healthcare system that could care less about the suffering going on when they can make a killing off things such as tests that take 7 days to get the results
The commissioners and presidents are seeing data that if we play, maybe a couple football players will die, and maybe a few dozen will have career ending health problems. Even more will have friends and family that die and have long term health problems. Football alone will not cause all coronavirus related suffering, but it will definitely cause enough havoc that you cannot proceed under the current conditions.
If we DON"T play football this fall "maybe a couple of football players will die from COVID". An infectious disease specialist from the Mayo Clinic said on ESPN radio this morning that there is value in having kids in organized workouts and sports. It isn't the sports that is the problem. But hey, what can he know?

Your "short term pain" has been life ruining for tens of thousands of Americans. They've lost everything in some cases they've worked their whole life for.
 
Last edited:

dinglefritz

College Football Hall of Fame
Jan 14, 2011
23,964
17,666
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Well, I will only speak to St. Charles County, MO where I live, but I'm sure a lot of this is going to apply to what is going on throughout the US. Here is a chart of St. Charles County Cases:



Missouri stay at home order issued April 6th. Phase 1 Opening began on May 4th. All businesses open with social distancing adherence. I was eating out at restaurants from that day forward: No masks on patrons. Employees with masks. Seating every other table. Bars at the restaurants had stools two together spaced out. After about 3 weeks, the table spacing decreased and there were more stools at the bar. From May 4th on, my wife was attending her fitness classes. No masks at work. Do you see a big spike from opening up? Me either.

But wait, what about phase 2 (no rules) looking like it caused the July spike. Phase 2 was pretty much a nothing burger because throughout May and early June the social distancing guidelines adherence at the restaurants I went to was decreasing and a lot of stuff was already operating as if it was Phase 2.

So, what caused this spike in cases? Well, Item 1 is extreme increase in testing.



So, you test more people, you're going to find more cases. But wait, the percent positive tests started ticking up also. So, something else is going on.

Throughout July, St. Charles County averaged 911 reported tests per day. So, I built the following chart to show the hypothetical cases based on the daily percent positive if they had been doing 911 tests per day since they started testing. (But wait you say, if they were doing more tests the percent positive would likely go down. I don't think so, because they were only testing symptomatic people early, but 50%-80% of the cases may be asymptomatic (see below) so, I think the percent positive may have increased even more because it is looking like the asymptomatic is closer to the 80% than the 50%). This chart takes the testing increase out of the equation and shows a truer picture of the "spread" of the virus.



So, that increase in late June and July is not normally how a viruses life cycle occurs in nature. So what is the cause of this "spike"? Item 2 on increased cases is the increased testing of people with no symptoms. It appears that asymptomatic individuals are a greater percent of infected individuals, so you more than doubled the pool of finding "cases" because you increased your odds of finding them.

This however doesn't explain all of it as lockdowns did disrupt one important vector of transmission - schools, especially colleges. Missouri closed schools in mid-March. So, as things started easing and people became more confident some of the spheres of friends that were cut off came back together giving the virus another go at susceptible individuals it didn't have access to before. That is why the average age of positive cases in July skewed heavily younger than the positive cases from March, April, and May. The other reason the positives skew younger is that younger people are more likely to be asymptomatic and they didn't really start testing people without symptoms heavily until late June and July.


Asymptomatic percentages:

Post of the year. The CDC I believe at one point early this summer that Missouri had 24X the number of positive cases as were lab confirmed. There is little doubt that the shut downs and stay at home orders did little or nothing in Missouri. As a contractor I had do some work for me on a property down there said, "there's a whole bunch of government workers down here happy to stay home and keep drawing their full paycheck."
 
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salsa red

Walk On
Dec 25, 2019
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  • Post of the year. The CDC I believe at one point early this summer that Missouri had 24X the number of positive cases as were lab confirmed. There is little doubt that the shut downs and stay at home orders did little or nothing in Missouri. As a contractor I had do some work for me on a property down there said, "there's a whole bunch of government workers down here happy to stay home and keep drawing their full paycheck."
  • IMO teachers, school administration, and people on unemployment are happy getting paid not to work. I hope republicans sweep and actually do something to get the country going again.
  • This post was allegedly what was said by a former football coach on tape years ago and told to me by my son's hairdresser.
 

dinglefritz

College Football Hall of Fame
Jan 14, 2011
23,964
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fixed to make it football related
There are a lot of teachers who want to go back to in school teaching. It doesn't sound like there are many in OPS that feel that way. Private schools IMO are going to have a boom in enrollment especially for young kids where public schools are online.
 
Sep 7, 2018
461
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99.96% survival rate. People are not being forced to attend games. Players aren't being forced to play. If it hasn't been done, they can be given an opt out and keep their scholarship. This isn't that hard.

Yep, this isn't rocket science. Sissies can stay inside and let us others live a normal life.
 

bingo65

Walk On
Jun 18, 2020
430
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Well, I will only speak to St. Charles County, MO where I live, but I'm sure a lot of this is going to apply to what is going on throughout the US. Here is a chart of St. Charles County Cases:



Missouri stay at home order issued April 6th. Phase 1 Opening began on May 4th. All businesses open with social distancing adherence. I was eating out at restaurants from that day forward: No masks on patrons. Employees with masks. Seating every other table. Bars at the restaurants had stools two together spaced out. After about 3 weeks, the table spacing decreased and there were more stools at the bar. From May 4th on, my wife was attending her fitness classes. No masks at work. Do you see a big spike from opening up? Me either.

But wait, what about phase 2 (no rules) looking like it caused the July spike. Phase 2 was pretty much a nothing burger because throughout May and early June the social distancing guidelines adherence at the restaurants I went to was decreasing and a lot of stuff was already operating as if it was Phase 2.

So, what caused this spike in cases? Well, Item 1 is extreme increase in testing.



So, you test more people, you're going to find more cases. But wait, the percent positive tests started ticking up also. So, something else is going on.

Throughout July, St. Charles County averaged 911 reported tests per day. So, I built the following chart to show the hypothetical cases based on the daily percent positive if they had been doing 911 tests per day since they started testing. (But wait you say, if they were doing more tests the percent positive would likely go down. I don't think so, because they were only testing symptomatic people early, but 50%-80% of the cases may be asymptomatic (see below) so, I think the percent positive may have increased even more because it is looking like the asymptomatic is closer to the 80% than the 50%). This chart takes the testing increase out of the equation and shows a truer picture of the "spread" of the virus.



So, that increase in late June and July is not normally how a viruses life cycle occurs in nature. So what is the cause of this "spike"? Item 2 on increased cases is the increased testing of people with no symptoms. It appears that asymptomatic individuals are a greater percent of infected individuals, so you more than doubled the pool of finding "cases" because you increased your odds of finding them.

This however doesn't explain all of it as lockdowns did disrupt one important vector of transmission - schools, especially colleges. Missouri closed schools in mid-March. So, as things started easing and people became more confident some of the spheres of friends that were cut off came back together giving the virus another go at susceptible individuals it didn't have access to before. That is why the average age of positive cases in July skewed heavily younger than the positive cases from March, April, and May. The other reason the positives skew younger is that younger people are more likely to be asymptomatic and they didn't really start testing people without symptoms heavily until late June and July.


Asymptomatic percentages:

man there is so much in certainty in all 100 hypothetical things you included in your analysis i couldn't even keep reading after the first 50 hypothetical assumptions. i know there are some asymptomatic people getting tested but i dont know anyone who has got tested yet. the vast majority of asymptomatic people are NOT getting tested.
so are you saying people in sweden are not getting tested and thats why their numbers are lower?