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Before buying into the Spring optimism

If anyone requires the input of the local media to piss you off after watching a Nebraska game, you haven't been paying attention. Besides, I really haven't seen Sipple or McKewon et al pumping that much optimism. They report what the coaches/players say, but in their own evaluations I think they show plenty of reality and skepticism.

Sorry, I just don't accept the premise of this entire thread. Spring optimism? Where? Maybe Cornicator is saying the schedule isn't as impossible as we thought, but I'd guess even he would agree that Nebraska has a long way to go from what we've seen if we're going to beat average teams let alone good teams.
 
I disagree. They're switching from the 4-3 to the 3-4. Historically speaking, programs don't succeed in year one with that type of significant shift. They also don't really have a QB.
Please provide a list of teams that switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4, then provide a comparison from last year of 4-3 to first year of 3-4. I’m not saying your wrong, but historically speaking is a mighty long time.
 
Please provide a list of teams that switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4, then provide a comparison from last year of 4-3 to first year of 3-4. I’m not saying your wrong, but historically speaking is a mighty long time.
well, Banker to Diaco. That's all I got. Too busy/lazy to look up actual stats. And no, 1 example does not make the case.
 
I think what we should all be hoping for is a turn around from a wins and losses perspective. We have lost so many games the last 3 years by a single score. I don’t think it’s a “monumental” feat to start falling in the other side of those close games. What still a monumental distance away is for us to have any sort of legit consistent hold on the devision. That’s years away yet.
 
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As the optimism rises, as it does every Spring, I suggest pouring a cold glass of water on your head by re-watching the Rutgers game.
- Atrocious Special Teams.
- Turnovers & Penalties galore.
- Head-scratching situational offensive play calls.

These things plagued us all season, and shined as bright as ever in our final game. Not saying it's impossible, but it would take a MONUMENTAL turnaround to right all these wrongs in one year. I think we'll be better than last year, but I expect plenty of frustration yet, and to lose games by our own demise.

I'll still be cheering as loud as ever, but trying to keep it realistic. GBR.
It's the same bullshit for the last 20 plus years. Blah, blah, blah we're gonna be 10-2... only to shit the bed yet again and limp in around .500 or worse. Stop talking shit and WIN GAMES!
 
It's the same bullshit for the last 20 plus years. Blah, blah, blah we're gonna be 10-2... only to shit the bed yet again and limp in around .500 or worse. Stop talking shit and WIN GAMES!
::::::looking on the board for a 10-2 prediction::::::

::::::not seeing one::::::::

::::::looking for coaches predicting 10-2::::::

::::::not seeing it:::::::

::::::looking for players predicting 10-2::::::

:::::not seeing it:::::::

Maybe help us out and link it?
 
well, Banker to Diaco. That's all I got. Too busy/lazy to look up actual stats. And no, 1 example does not make the case.
It’s cool. I was really wasn’t looking for or expecting examples. @Cornicator has the propensity to make attempts to sway opinion toward his line of thinking with a sort of group think methodology. Like if he says historically left handed people are more apt to develop blood clots. It gives people the sense that he actually researched blood clots and left handed people. What I have seen is that it means he had 3 members of his family have blood clots and 2 were lefties. Therefore, historically speaking.....
 
It’s cool. I was really wasn’t looking for or expecting examples. @Cornicator has the propensity to make attempts to sway opinion toward his line of thinking with a sort of group think methodology. Like if he says historically left handed people are more apt to develop blood clots. It gives people the sense that he actually researched blood clots and left handed people. What I have seen is that it means he had 3 members of his family have blood clots and 2 were lefties. Therefore, historically speaking.....


Baylor - 2019 - 19 PPG, 4.8 yards per play allowed - running the 4/3
Baylor - 2020 - 29.2 PPG, 5.5 yards per play allowed - running the 3/4


Purdue - 2019 - 30 ppg, 243 yards passing allowed per game, 23 sacks - 4/3 - 12 games
Purdue - 2020 - 30 ppg, 256 yards passing allowed per game, 5 sacks - 3/4 - 6 games , run D was better, but turnovers and plays behind the LOS were dramatically reduced.


Georgia - 2015- 16 ppg, 4.8 yards per play - running the 4/3
Georgia - 2016 - 24 ppg, 5.3 yards per play - running the 3/4


Arkansas - 2016 - 30 ppg and a bowl team - running the 4/3
Arkansas - 2017 - 37 ppg and 4-8 - running the 3-4 - Fat Brett got fired


The success of the 3-4 is contingent upon the right personnel at various positions. In a sense, a 4-3 can mask some of your weaknesses better. Vs. the Run, you absolutely need a dominant Nose Tackle capable of occupying space and taking on Several blockers without giving ground.

Your defensive Ends need to be extremely versatile. They have to possess the strength and size necessary to take on offensive linemen and keep them off the inside linebackers. Carlos and Kahlil Davis were great athletes, and both will probably find a nice 3rd down niche in the NFL going forward, but they got exposed in the 3-4.

Your corners need to be big, physical, and capable of hanging out on an island. This is magnified if your roster doesn't include elite athletes at Outside Linebacker. The inside backers in the 3-4 have to be excellent in pursuit and be able to hammer dudes downhill. They have to be true "stop" guys in a hole.



Most teams struggle with the transition because they haven't been actively recruiting those dudes to fit the needs of the scheme:

1. Baylor didn't really have any of the necessary personnell. But I'm sure Aranda will get it fixed in the next 1 to 2 years.

2. Purdue had a good Nose in Lorenzo Neal, but their Outside LBs and secondary just got destroyed all year long. They had the smallest collection of DBs in the Big Ten. If Purdue plays Iowa in week 5 and Illinois without their 4th string QB, Purdue would've gone winless on the season.

3. A team like Georgia struggled early in the transition, but they recruit so well that a year later, they had a top 5 defense in the country.


- I think Michigan will be a lot like Georgia in the sense that the transition won't take long, but in year one they have some issues:

1. They don't have a nose. Its interesting to see Nebraska and Michigan after a few of the same Nose Tackles in recruiting.

2. If you look at a dude like Rayshaun Benny, who was a high level 4-Star recruit for Michigan. He was recruited by their old staff as a DT in the 4-3. He is quite simply NOT big enough to play the Nose. A recruit like Benny is probably definitely ready to play DT as a True Freshman in the Big Ten. I think he likely gets exploited early in the 3-4.



There have been some examples of teams that had a lot of success while shifting from the 4-3 to the 3-4. But they both had one strong characteristic. They had a lot of talent at Nose, OLB, and in the secondary. Those teams:


2012 to 2013 - Wisconsin
2015 to 2016 - LSU

That characteristic was Dave Aranda. Did Aranda just forget how to coach at Baylor in 2020? No. He walked into rosters that had the necessary talent for a successful transition at LSU and Wisconsin.


Also... one last thing about Michigan.

The Wolverines had 5 consecutive top 10 to 15 defenses under Don Brown, widely considered one of the top DCs in college football. The 2019 team sends 6 dudes, and legit dudes, to the NFL. 3 other NFL players decide to opt out for 2020. That means Brown has to rebuild a defense with 9 new starters without a spring practice and the covid clusterfvck in the Fall. Firing him was a ridiculous overreaction.

Now they have to hit restart again with this new scheme.
 
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Baylor - 2019 - 19 PPG, 4.8 yards per play allowed - running the 4/3
Baylor - 2020 - 29.2 PPG, 5.5 yards per play allowed - running the 3/4


Purdue - 2019 - 30 ppg, 243 yards passing allowed per game, 23 sacks - 4/3 - 12 games
Purdue - 2020 - 30 ppg, 256 yards passing allowed per game, 5 sacks - 3/4 - 6 games , run D was better, but turnovers and plays behind the LOS were dramatically reduced.


Georgia - 2015- 16 ppg, 4.8 yards per play - running the 4/3
Georgia - 2016 - 24 ppg, 5.3 yards per play - running the 3/4


Arkansas - 2016 - 30 ppg and a bowl team - running the 4/3
Arkansas - 2017 - 37 ppg and 4-8 - running the 3-4 - Fat Brett got fired


The success of the 3-4 is contingent upon the right personnel at various positions. In a sense, a 4-3 can mask some of your weaknesses better. Vs. the Run, you absolutely need a dominant Nose Tackle capable of occupying space and taking on Several blockers without giving ground.

Your defensive Ends need to be extremely versatile. They have to possess the strength and size necessary to take on offensive linemen and keep them off the inside linebackers. Carlos and Kahlil Davis were great athletes, and both will probably find a nice 3rd down niche in the NFL going forward, but they got exposed in the 3-4.

Your corners need to be big, physical, and capable of hanging out on an island. This is magnified if your roster doesn't include elite athletes at Outside Linebacker. The inside backers in the 3-4 have to be excellent in pursuit and be able to hammer dudes downhill. They have to be true "stop" guys in a hole.



Most teams struggle with the transition because they haven't been actively recruiting those dudes to fit the needs of the scheme:

1. Baylor didn't really have any of the necessary personnell. But I'm sure Aranda will get it fixed in the next 1 to 2 years.

2. Purdue had a good Nose in Lorenzo Neal, but their Outside LBs and secondary just got destroyed all year long. They had the smallest collection of DBs in the Big Ten. If Purdue plays Iowa in week 5 and Illinois without their 4th string QB, Purdue would've gone winless on the season.

3. A team like Georgia struggled early in the transition, but they recruit so well that a year later, they had a top 5 defense in the country.


- I think Michigan will be a lot like Georgia in the sense that the transition won't take long, but in year one they have some issues:

1. They don't have a nose. Its interesting to see Nebraska and Michigan after a few of the same Nose Tackles in recruiting.

2. If you look at a dude like Rayshaun Benny, who was a high level 4-Star recruit for Michigan. He was recruited by their old staff as a DT in the 4-3. He is quite simply NOT big enough to play the Nose. A recruit like Benny is probably definitely ready to play DT as a True Freshman in the Big Ten. I think he likely gets exploited early in the 3-4.



There have been some examples of teams that had a lot of success while shifting from the 4-3 to the 3-4. But they both had one strong characteristic. They had a lot of talent at Nose, OLB, and in the secondary. Those teams:


2012 to 2013 - Wisconsin
2015 to 2016 - LSU

That characteristic was Dave Aranda. Did Aranda just forget how to coach at Baylor in 2020? No. He walked into rosters that had the necessary talent for a successful transition at LSU and Wisconsin.


Also... one last thing about Michigan.

The Wolverines had 5 consecutive top 10 to 15 defenses under Don Brown, widely considered one of the top DCs in college football. The 2019 team sends 6 dudes, and legit dudes, to the NFL. 3 other NFL players decide to opt out for 2020. That means Brown has to rebuild a defense with 9 new starters without a spring practice and the covid clusterfvck in the Fall. Firing him was a ridiculous overreaction.

Now they have to hit restart again with this new scheme.
If I got the stat lookup right, NU defense went from 5.5 yds/play (55 rank) in Banker's last year to 6.4 yds/play (111) in Diaco's only year. This past year NU matched Banker's stats with 5.5 yds/play (44).
 
If I got the stat lookup right, NU defense went from 5.5 yds/play (55 rank) in Banker's last year to 6.4 yds/play (111) in Diaco's only year. This past year NU matched Banker's stats with 5.5 yds/play (44).


Nebraska was really one of the worst offenders in this transition. Nebraska shifted the 3-4 with one of the smallest defensive lines in the Big Ten, no pass rushers, no linebacker depth, and a bunch of small DBs who struggled in man coverage.

Yuck.
 
Nebraska was really one of the worst offenders in this transition. Nebraska shifted the 3-4 with one of the smallest defensive lines in the Big Ten, no pass rushers, no linebacker depth, and a bunch of small DBs who struggled in man coverage.

Yuck.
In hindsight, if Riley had a chance to hang on, hanging his hat on Diaco's defense snuffed that candle out. Harbaugh may have just done the same thing by getting rid of Brown.
 
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@Cornicator

I am pretty sure Jeremy Pruitt ran a 3-4 at Georgia.

According to Phil Snow, his team Baylor team ran a 3 man front his last year. Here is a quick blurb from an interview he did with a paper from North Carolina after leaving with Rhule from Baylor -

“Matt Rhule said in his opening press conference he prefers to run a 4-3 and it looks like that’s primarily been your background, how do you think the Panthers current personnel fits that and what’s your philosophy?

I’ve done just about everything on defense over the years – last year at Baylor, we were a three-man front"

So how did the Baylor defense do from 2018 to 2019

I’ll give you Arkansas. But Bielema’s DC Robb Smith left for Minnesota and he had Paul Rhodes on staff and just promoted him. Changing D philosophies probably not a sound move.

So that basically that leaves you Arkansas in Bielema’s last season and two schools that hired Disco Bob Diaco.

not sure that meets the definition of historically.
 
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It's the same bullshit for the last 20 plus years. Blah, blah, blah we're gonna be 10-2... only to shit the bed yet again and limp in around .500 or worse. Stop talking shit and WIN GAMES!
20 years ago we were in the NCG against Miami. I am as disappointed as the next guy but I have to say something feels different from the last few years under Frost. All the db's coming back, AM looks faster at his freshman weight and he apparently is throwing better, the OL is deeper and more experienced, and most of all finally a bunch of fast and big receivers, both WR and TE.
 
I have a full pitcher of kool aide. I am not drinking any of it until they prove me wrong. Until then, I will go with 6-6, and then the 90's legend is canned. Then I will drink it for the next fan-proclaimed superstar that enters the program. It's great to be optimistic, however, now that Adrian has "slimmed Down" or whatever you want to call it- the dude is still a poor leader, a crappy qb, and whatever else you want to call it. Get real. Nothing is gonna change. It is good to be optimistic , though. Worked great for the last 20 years. Trying to recapture the 90's. It's actually kind of comical. Live and learn i guess.
 
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As the optimism rises, as it does every Spring, I suggest pouring a cold glass of water on your head by re-watching the Rutgers game.
- Atrocious Special Teams.
- Turnovers & Penalties galore.
- Head-scratching situational offensive play calls.

These things plagued us all season, and shined as bright as ever in our final game. Not saying it's impossible, but it would take a MONUMENTAL turnaround to right all these wrongs in one year. I think we'll be better than last year, but I expect plenty of frustration yet, and to lose games by our own demise.

I'll still be cheering as loud as ever, but trying to keep it realistic. GBR.
Well said! I’ll believe all this optimism when I see it with my own eyes. Until then, we are at the bottom of the West due to poor QB play, poor line play, and aside from having a good kicker, atrocious Special Teams.

It is quite possible on kickoffs and punts that we could do better if our Special Teams simply remained on the sideline because they are really that bad.
 
I have a full pitcher of kool aide. I am not drinking any of it until they prove me wrong. Until then, I will go with 6-6, and then the 90's legend is canned. Then I will drink it for the next fan-proclaimed superstar that enters the program. It's great to be optimistic, however, now that Adrian has "slimmed Down" or whatever you want to call it- the dude is still a poor leader, a crappy qb, and whatever else you want to call it. Get real. Nothing is gonna change. It is good to be optimistic , though. Worked great for the last 20 years. Trying to recapture the 90's. It's actually kind of comical. Live and learn i guess.
Frost won’t be canned if he goes 6-6 this year.
 
Just for the record... being an optimist doesn’t mean we win the division. It just means being hopeful for something different this fall. If we get something different this fall, I’ll be grateful I didn’t spend the entire spring and summer being miserable about how much we are gonna suck. If we fail this fall, I’ll only be disappointed this fall, and not all of spring and summer.

I don’t get why some of you “realists” are pissed off that I and many others have this approach.
 
When Frost showed up, the defense was a shambles are the roster wasn't right for a 3-4 defense. That has largely been addressed, but offensive skill position recruiting has been uneven and plagued by bad luck. However, the WR room looks objectively better and I think there are just too many well-rated RBs on the roster to not have depth there.
So I'm a glass half full guy.
 
I suggest you stick your head into a bucket of water. Pessimistic people like you always find something to complain about. Our defense is solid and our receivers are clearly better than they have been.

Clearly? This is literally said every year yet the offensive genius continues to churn out laughable offenses plagued by poor coaching. Zero reason to expect anything different this upcoming year.
 
Just for the record... being an optimist doesn’t mean we win the division. It just means being hopeful for something different this fall. If we get something different this fall, I’ll be grateful I didn’t spend the entire spring and summer being miserable about how much we are gonna suck. If we fail this fall, I’ll only be disappointed this fall, and not all of spring and summer.

I don’t get why some of you “realists” are pissed off that I and many others have this approach.
I don’t think that most are upset by this approach. The people who make comments about how talented our returning players are, and how much of an improvement last years back-ups will be over the departing players does get old. I do not see much reason to believe that this is the year we turn things around...actually I think there are more signs to the contrary. That said, I will be hoping that I am wrong, and that we win 8 games this year. Why does that piss off the “optimists”?
 
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I don’t think that most are upset by this approach. The people who make comments about how talented our returning players are, and how much of an improvement last years back-ups will be over the departing players does get old. I do not see much reason to believe that this is the year we turn things around...actually I think there are more signs to the contrary. That said, I will be hoping that I am wrong, and that we win 8 games this year. Why does that piss off the “optimists”?
Touché.

I guess I have lived my life by trying to put the best construction on things. Maybe that’s trying to put lipstick on a pig. Sorry for the optimism, I guess. But it sure beats bellyaching months before the season even begins.
 
You wanna be pissed off, that’s fine. Why make it your goal to convince others to be pissed off as well?
It’s not my goal. It’s reality. This staff has been an embarrassment the moment they stepped foot in to Lincoln. But hey, it’s the offseason. We own the offseason.
 
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Funny how the people that talk about "reality", seem to be the furthest removed from it.
 
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I don’t think that most are upset by this approach. The people who make comments about how talented our returning players are, and how much of an improvement last years back-ups will be over the departing players does get old. I do not see much reason to believe that this is the year we turn things around...actually I think there are more signs to the contrary. That said, I will be hoping that I am wrong, and that we win 8 games this year. Why does that piss off the “optimists”?

What are these signs to the contrary?

We return everyone on a vastly improved defense. We return 3 starters on the OL and the 4th looked great the game he started. The new WR's look to be an upgrade. You can take the show me approach here, but it's very hard to imagine this group not being better. All I hear for a reason(s) we don't see improvement is our coach sucks, etc.
 
What are these signs to the contrary?

We return everyone on a vastly improved defense. We return 3 starters on the OL and the 4th looked great the game he started. The new WR's look to be an upgrade. You can take the show me approach here, but it's very hard to imagine this group not being better. All I hear for a reason(s) we don't see improvement is our coach sucks, etc.
the two individuals that are hardest to imagine being better are the two who impact the W-L record the most.

I agree with everything you said about all of our non-QB players and our non-head coach coaches.
 
@huskerbaseball13, I think the biggest difference between you and me is that you are convinced nothing will change moving forward. Frost sucked when he got here, he’s sucked for the entire time he’s been here, and he will continue to suck moving forward. You may be absolutely right.

I am hopeful (although I easily could be wrong) that Frost has learned some things and can improve. This fall will tell the story on that. I don’t believe the talent he inherited was tremendous (and he ran some off as well), nor were they very disciplined in the weight room. He has not done himself any favors, both with his mouth and his play calling. If he hasn’t learned anything, nothing changes and you w right all along.

Rather than believe that to be the case before this fall happens, I have always tried to put the best construction on things. I may be terribly disappointed this fall. But I can tell you right now, I’m still excited for what we will see, and I believe some of you ‘realists’ don’t care what happens as long as Frost is the coach. You haven’t always felt that way, but it is where you are now. And I get it.

I’m not here to proclaim I’m right, because while I love husker football, I have never played or coached football, and don’t have a football mind that a lot of people have on this board.

Just where I’m at. I apologize for being an ass at times. I guess it comes with the territory on this board.
 
@huskerbaseball13, I think the biggest difference between you and me is that you are convinced nothing will change moving forward. Frost sucked when he got here, he’s sucked for the entire time he’s been here, and he will continue to suck moving forward. You may be absolutely right.

I am hopeful (although I easily could be wrong) that Frost has learned some things and can improve. This fall will tell the story on that. I don’t believe the talent he inherited was tremendous (and he ran some off as well), nor were they very disciplined in the weight room. He has not done himself any favors, both with his mouth and his play calling. If he hasn’t learned anything, nothing changes and you w right all along.

Rather than believe that to be the case before this fall happens, I have always tried to put the best construction on things. I may be terribly disappointed this fall. But I can tell you right now, I’m still excited for what we will see, and I believe some of you ‘realists’ don’t care what happens as long as Frost is the coach. You haven’t always felt that way, but it is where you are now. And I get it.

I’m not here to proclaim I’m right, because while I love husker football, I have never played or coached football, and don’t have a football mind that a lot of people have on this board.

Just where I’m at. I apologize for being an ass at times. I guess it comes with the territory on this board.

I honestly hope you’re right. If it isn’t Frost I don’t know who can lead us back to relevancy. Husker football may be dead.

I was all for Frost and as pumped as anybody else that we landed him. Unfortunately, thus far you could very well argue he is the worst coach in the division saddled with some coaches around him that should not be in the power 5. Recruiting is already starting to suffer and it will only get worse with another dismal year. It’s time for him to do something of note. Like win the division.
 
What sucks is I’d be happy with 8-4 and progress showing that things are finally pointing in the right direction. Even under Riley I believed we would (or at least could) win the division each year. Now I think winning the division would be amazing.

Never felt that way before. Frost bears much of the blame, but I think there are a lot of factors that have brought us to this point as well. Frost certainly hasn’t done what I thought he would. Here’s to hoping he does this year. It’s almost now or never for him.
 
I don’t think that most are upset by this approach. The people who make comments about how talented our returning players are, and how much of an improvement last years back-ups will be over the departing players does get old. I do not see much reason to believe that this is the year we turn things around...actually I think there are more signs to the contrary. That said, I will be hoping that I am wrong, and that we win 8 games this year. Why does that piss off the “optimists”?
In the world outside football, the optimists are the ones who get taken advantage of by Bernie Madoff. The other side are the ones that miss out on some really good returns because they are over cautious. Neither is necessarily right or wrong, just a different approach.
 
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As the optimism rises, as it does every Spring, I suggest pouring a cold glass of water on your head by re-watching the Rutgers game.
- Atrocious Special Teams.
- Turnovers & Penalties galore.
- Head-scratching situational offensive play calls.

These things plagued us all season, and shined as bright as ever in our final game. Not saying it's impossible, but it would take a MONUMENTAL turnaround to right all these wrongs in one year. I think we'll be better than last year, but I expect plenty of frustration yet, and to lose games by our own demise.

I'll still be cheering as loud as ever, but trying to keep it realistic. GBR.
I hear you. The Rutgers game, I believe, taught HCSF a huge lesson. And this is that Special Teams are VERY important. I’m sure that he noticed that we absolutely dominated the game, yet because of horrible special teams on our part, and very good special teams on Rutgers part, the game was very close.

The good NU teams of the past would have won that game by 5 touchdowns with the dominating statistical comparison. Look for much better special teams play this year, which will improve the W-L record all by itself. gbr
 
As the optimism rises, as it does every Spring, I suggest pouring a cold glass of water on your head by re-watching the Rutgers game.
- Atrocious Special Teams.
- Turnovers & Penalties galore.
- Head-scratching situational offensive play calls.

These things plagued us all season, and shined as bright as ever in our final game. Not saying it's impossible, but it would take a MONUMENTAL turnaround to right all these wrongs in one year. I think we'll be better than last year, but I expect plenty of frustration yet, and to lose games by our own demise.

I'll still be cheering as loud as ever, but trying to keep it realistic. GBR.
Really, what do you expect any one coach or someone like a reporter to say. Must stay upbeat and positive.
 
I can see valid reasons for some of the optimism, but we have been through this so many times before.

What I don't particularly like is when said 'optimism' is not based in reality. It's like someone telling a lie to your face in real time, with no basis in anything factual.. that doesn't make sense to me, and in fact feels more like someone is pushing a false narrative for political reasons to defend a staff that for all purposes seems pretty inept at this point.
 
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