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Near-disastrous number of early entries declaring for 2016 NFL Draft
Dennis Dodd / CBSSports.com
January 18, 2016 12:20 PM
It’s not exactly draft Armageddon for a large swath of underclassmen, but it’s close.
Approximately 100 college players will leave school early, declaring for the draft as of Monday’s deadline, according to a list assembled by NFL.com. While the official number won’t be released by the NFL until Friday, that’s at least close to the record 98 underclassmen that entered two years ago.
That’s also close to disaster for some of those prospects -- many three years out of high school -- who are turning pro with collegiate eligibility remaining.
“You’ll be able to negotiate a second contract sooner [by coming out early],” explained NFL personnel guru Gil Brandt. “But a lot of them don’t get to negotiate a second contract.”
That’s because 100 underclassmen are way more than the system can absorb. Slightly more than 18 months ago, out of the record 98 underclassmen who declared early for the draft in 2014, another record of 36 did not get selected. That's a failure rate of nearly 40 percent.
Only 256 total players are drafted (not counting supplemental picks) each year. It would be unheard of for 100 of those 256 (39 percent) to be underclassmen.
We’re looking, then, at record unemployment, even if many sign short-term undrafted free agent deals to work out for teams in training camp. Draftees must make an NFL roster and play for three consecutive seasons to get to that second contract. That’s slightly more than the average NFL career, 4.74 years.
So what’s changed as coaches, players and draft gurus wring their hands over the future of football’s best and brightest?
Beginning in 2015, the 21-year-old draft evaluation process was refined to include only three simpler draft categories -- first round, second round and stay in school (third round or lower).
That seemed to stem the flow of early entrants. But after the number of declaring underclassmen dropped to 74 in 2015, it spiked again this year.
“I guess it’s agents getting to them,” said Brandt, who has been a member of the NFL’s College Advisory Committee, which hands out draft evaluations. “If you can keep your kids away from them, you’re the coach of the year.”
While agents are heavily regulated by the NFL and in certain states, that can’t account for vanity and misguided decisions. Heisman Trophy-winning running back Derrick Henry is roundly projected to be a high draft choice. But the Alabama tailback told reporters on Friday that he wasn’t pleased by a second-round draft grade.
“I feel like, just because I got my grade, it doesn’t mean I’m not going to be first round,” Henry said. “I feel like what I do and how I test at the combine and work out [will decide my spot]. I feel like I will be first round. There’s no doubt in my mind that I won’t be.”
We’ll see.
Penn State junior quarterback Christian Hackenberg is confident in what one source said was a second-round projection.
“Let’s [theoretically] say it’s third or fourth round, ‘We advise you not to come out,’" Hackenberg said. “There’s probably some kids who still say, ‘Screw it.’"
Statistically, issues emerge after the second round. In the last three years, 56 of the 63 players given a first- or second-round grade by the committee were drafted in those rounds (89 percent).
“I think all of these guys are better [off] staying in school, especially offensive and defensive linemen,” Brandt said. “They think they’re strong, but they’re not. They don’t know how strong the guys that are playing [in the NFL].”
Demarcus Robinson had ups and downs for Florida but was not nearly consistent enough. (USATSI)
Of the 98 underclassmen currently listed as declared on NFL.com, 31 are either offensive or defensive linemen. The next largest position groups are receivers and defensive backs (16 each). Four quarterbacks have declared -- Hackenberg, Cal’s Jared Goff, Ohio State’s Cardale Jones and Memphis’ Paxton Lynch.
“Actually, the good teams kind of get hurt because the good players leave for the draft so often,” said former NFL and college coach Charlie Weis.
That has simply become the cost of doing business at the highest level of college football. Former USC coach Steve Sarkisian once told CBS Sports he recruits to a standard that his top players will stay only three years. LSU has lost 29 underclassmen since the 2006 season, including a combined 18 in 2013-2014.
Among those hardest hit this season are Ohio State (nine underclassmen leaving) and Clemson (six).
“What other profession do you have to wait three years and get paid millions of dollars?” Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez asked. “These guys ain’t got it that bad.”
That is, if you hit the draft just right. In its head coach’s guide to the advisory committee, the league goes out of its way urging prospects to stay in school.
“It will change your future forever,” wrote Troy Vincent, NFL executive vice president of football operations, in a form letter.
Both Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and Alabama coach Nick Saban called for the declaration deadline to move back.
“I wish they'd make a rule that says you can't even give a player what his draft status is from the NFL … committee until they've finished their competition as a college player, so that you don't put them and their family in this situation where there's a big timing issue relative to competition,” Saban said.
The Alabama players reportedly voted to delay their draft evaluations until after last week’s College Football Playoff National Championship.
As of Monday, only two Tide players had declared -- Henry and defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson. Perhaps the message is getting through, at least in Tuscaloosa. A conservative estimate puts Alabama’s early entries at eight.
A lingering question remains: Do you think a player like LSU rising junior Leonard Fournette, a true sophomore, can play in the NFL? The answer is obvious: Yes. The reality is something else.
The NFL became the last major league to accept underclassmen into its draft in 1990. It has not wavered even though a handful of players (Adrian Peterson, etc.) have clearly shown they were ready to play in the NFL less than three years out of high school.
“I actually like the rule,” said Alabama basketball coach Avery Johnson, who went to Fournette’s New Orleans high school -- St. Augustine. “It gives [Fournette] a chance to fully develop. I don’t think we need to circumvent the system.”
Johnson, a former NBA coach and player, comes from a league that forces players to stay one year in college before turning pro.
Attorney Alan Millstein thinks otherwise. Milstein challenged the NFL Draft restrictions representing Ohio State RB Maurice Clarett. A freshman in 2002, Clarett was suspended in 2003. The tailback actually beat the NFL in court but the decision was overturned on appeal.
“What is abundantly clear to anybody who plays football is that your career opportunities may be cut short,” Milstein said. “Their career can be finished with one hit, let alone their life. The should be able to earn money when they’re capable."
Near-disastrous number of early entries declaring for 2016 NFL Draft
Dennis Dodd / CBSSports.com
January 18, 2016 12:20 PM
It’s not exactly draft Armageddon for a large swath of underclassmen, but it’s close.
Approximately 100 college players will leave school early, declaring for the draft as of Monday’s deadline, according to a list assembled by NFL.com. While the official number won’t be released by the NFL until Friday, that’s at least close to the record 98 underclassmen that entered two years ago.
That’s also close to disaster for some of those prospects -- many three years out of high school -- who are turning pro with collegiate eligibility remaining.
“You’ll be able to negotiate a second contract sooner [by coming out early],” explained NFL personnel guru Gil Brandt. “But a lot of them don’t get to negotiate a second contract.”
That’s because 100 underclassmen are way more than the system can absorb. Slightly more than 18 months ago, out of the record 98 underclassmen who declared early for the draft in 2014, another record of 36 did not get selected. That's a failure rate of nearly 40 percent.
Only 256 total players are drafted (not counting supplemental picks) each year. It would be unheard of for 100 of those 256 (39 percent) to be underclassmen.
We’re looking, then, at record unemployment, even if many sign short-term undrafted free agent deals to work out for teams in training camp. Draftees must make an NFL roster and play for three consecutive seasons to get to that second contract. That’s slightly more than the average NFL career, 4.74 years.
So what’s changed as coaches, players and draft gurus wring their hands over the future of football’s best and brightest?
Beginning in 2015, the 21-year-old draft evaluation process was refined to include only three simpler draft categories -- first round, second round and stay in school (third round or lower).
That seemed to stem the flow of early entrants. But after the number of declaring underclassmen dropped to 74 in 2015, it spiked again this year.
“I guess it’s agents getting to them,” said Brandt, who has been a member of the NFL’s College Advisory Committee, which hands out draft evaluations. “If you can keep your kids away from them, you’re the coach of the year.”
While agents are heavily regulated by the NFL and in certain states, that can’t account for vanity and misguided decisions. Heisman Trophy-winning running back Derrick Henry is roundly projected to be a high draft choice. But the Alabama tailback told reporters on Friday that he wasn’t pleased by a second-round draft grade.
“I feel like, just because I got my grade, it doesn’t mean I’m not going to be first round,” Henry said. “I feel like what I do and how I test at the combine and work out [will decide my spot]. I feel like I will be first round. There’s no doubt in my mind that I won’t be.”
We’ll see.
Penn State junior quarterback Christian Hackenberg is confident in what one source said was a second-round projection.
“Let’s [theoretically] say it’s third or fourth round, ‘We advise you not to come out,’" Hackenberg said. “There’s probably some kids who still say, ‘Screw it.’"
Statistically, issues emerge after the second round. In the last three years, 56 of the 63 players given a first- or second-round grade by the committee were drafted in those rounds (89 percent).
“I think all of these guys are better [off] staying in school, especially offensive and defensive linemen,” Brandt said. “They think they’re strong, but they’re not. They don’t know how strong the guys that are playing [in the NFL].”
Demarcus Robinson had ups and downs for Florida but was not nearly consistent enough. (USATSI)
Of the 98 underclassmen currently listed as declared on NFL.com, 31 are either offensive or defensive linemen. The next largest position groups are receivers and defensive backs (16 each). Four quarterbacks have declared -- Hackenberg, Cal’s Jared Goff, Ohio State’s Cardale Jones and Memphis’ Paxton Lynch.
“Actually, the good teams kind of get hurt because the good players leave for the draft so often,” said former NFL and college coach Charlie Weis.
That has simply become the cost of doing business at the highest level of college football. Former USC coach Steve Sarkisian once told CBS Sports he recruits to a standard that his top players will stay only three years. LSU has lost 29 underclassmen since the 2006 season, including a combined 18 in 2013-2014.
Among those hardest hit this season are Ohio State (nine underclassmen leaving) and Clemson (six).
“What other profession do you have to wait three years and get paid millions of dollars?” Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez asked. “These guys ain’t got it that bad.”
That is, if you hit the draft just right. In its head coach’s guide to the advisory committee, the league goes out of its way urging prospects to stay in school.
“It will change your future forever,” wrote Troy Vincent, NFL executive vice president of football operations, in a form letter.
Both Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and Alabama coach Nick Saban called for the declaration deadline to move back.
“I wish they'd make a rule that says you can't even give a player what his draft status is from the NFL … committee until they've finished their competition as a college player, so that you don't put them and their family in this situation where there's a big timing issue relative to competition,” Saban said.
The Alabama players reportedly voted to delay their draft evaluations until after last week’s College Football Playoff National Championship.
As of Monday, only two Tide players had declared -- Henry and defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson. Perhaps the message is getting through, at least in Tuscaloosa. A conservative estimate puts Alabama’s early entries at eight.
A lingering question remains: Do you think a player like LSU rising junior Leonard Fournette, a true sophomore, can play in the NFL? The answer is obvious: Yes. The reality is something else.
The NFL became the last major league to accept underclassmen into its draft in 1990. It has not wavered even though a handful of players (Adrian Peterson, etc.) have clearly shown they were ready to play in the NFL less than three years out of high school.
“I actually like the rule,” said Alabama basketball coach Avery Johnson, who went to Fournette’s New Orleans high school -- St. Augustine. “It gives [Fournette] a chance to fully develop. I don’t think we need to circumvent the system.”
Johnson, a former NBA coach and player, comes from a league that forces players to stay one year in college before turning pro.
Attorney Alan Millstein thinks otherwise. Milstein challenged the NFL Draft restrictions representing Ohio State RB Maurice Clarett. A freshman in 2002, Clarett was suspended in 2003. The tailback actually beat the NFL in court but the decision was overturned on appeal.
“What is abundantly clear to anybody who plays football is that your career opportunities may be cut short,” Milstein said. “Their career can be finished with one hit, let alone their life. The should be able to earn money when they’re capable."
