B1G Recruiting Ranking Projection

Discussion in 'Husker Board' started by nebcountry, Jul 1, 2015.

  1. nebcountry

    nebcountry Junior
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    Thought I would try to "look" into the near future for the 2016 B1G recruiting results. So, I used the 3 previous years overall recruiting results and current points to project how the rankings could finish. Just like financial matters, past history does not guarantee future results. If the same trajectory is followed to 20 recruits, these will be the results. The historical data starts getting "messy" in the 40th-45th rankings range, where point ranges overlap (i.e. a 45th ranked team one year would be ranked 40th in a different year). But it's not so messy that the spread is more than ± 5 in the rankings.

    Things I can't project. The top uncommitted/flipped recruits (6.1/6.0 rated) will highly impact how some teams finish, as Rivals' point system favors these players. Also, this projection only considers 20 players (as Rivals only counts 20, except for bonuses). So for some teams, recruit counts 21 and above will improve points/rankings as lower rated players are removed from the scoring. Some players will have rating adjustments. Teams will finish out recruiting better or worse in terms of commit ratings than they started. Some teams may take less than 20 players.

    So, here it is:

    [​IMG]

    The numerical ranking of the B1G recruiting results would be:
    1. Ohio State
    2. Penn State
    3. Michigan State
    4. Michigan
    5. Nebraska
    6. Wisconsin
    7. Minnesota
    8. Maryland
    9. Northwestern
    10. Purdue
    11. Rutgers
    12. Illinois
    13. Iowa
    14. Indiana
     
  2. Cornicator

    Cornicator Nebraska Legend
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    POB and Terry Wilson will both be 4 Stars. Aphonso will also be a 3 Star.

    I think it's difficult to make projections without determining which recruits get a bump.
     
  3. nebcountry

    nebcountry Junior
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    It's easy to make a projection, the difficulty is in making it reasonably accurate.Cool The big kicker is where do the 6.1/6.0 rated guys land. They are the most bang for the buck, recruiting point wise. And the 2nd most important (at least in my mind), how many total recruits will be landed. You count your 20 highest, the lowest rated guys fall out of the equation over 20 recruits.

    Ratings increases help, but only marginally unless you are cracking into the top 250. If Wilson/POB go to 5.8 4*, we gain 45 + 15 = 60 points. If Thomas goes to a top end (5.7) 3* star, we gain 45 points. Based on points history that would put us outside the top 25 even in a low points year, but we would be in the top 30. Just for comparison purposes, landing 20 and only 20:

    20 low-end 4*'s will get you in the vicinity of a 15th rated class.

    20 high-end 3*'s will get you in the vicinity of a 25th rated class.

    I like to consider the whole class, instead of individuals low or high ranked. You don't know who will survive or who was rated accordingly.

    The real question is "how do we finish?" If nothing changes, I know what to expect (ballpark). My gut feeling is that we will finish better than 30 to 35 ranking, maybe we can get in the top 25.
     
    AndyHanline likes this.

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