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B1G Division, Title Odds Released

John_J_Rambo

Offensive Coordinator
Jan 10, 2020
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14,704
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TeamConf.Div.
OSU-110-200
Mich.+700+450
PSU+700+450
Indiana+1100+1000
Mary.+4000+2000
MSU+5000+2500
Iowa+1100+200
Wisc.+1200+200
NW+1400+300
Minn.+2000+800
Neb.+2000+800
Purdue+5000+2000
Illinois+10000+2500

good luck out there, bettors

win totals shouldn't be too far behind.. my best guess is NU will open at o/u 7.5 wins
 
Three teams we play we should be better than: Purdue, Illinois, MSU.
One team we're roughly equivalent to: Minnesota.
Five teams we're not expected to beat: Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan.
Conference records the past four years:
2017: 3-6
2018: 3-6
2019: 3-6
2020: 3-5
To improve on that, we're going to have to:
  • beat everybody we're supposed to (which we haven't done in a long time) AND
  • beat Minnesota in Minneapolis (last time we did that was 2015) OR
  • pull off at least one upset in four home games:
    • Northwestern (West winners in 2018 and 2020)
    • Iowa (last Nebraska victory in Lincoln was 2011)
    • Ohio State (last Nebraska victory in Lincoln was 2011)
    • Michigan (only game in Lincoln was 2012 Nebraska victory) OR
  • pull off a road victory in Wisconsin (our only victory in Madison was in 1966)
We THINK we can be better, but put into context with our recent downturn, it's going to take a lot of work.
 
3 east teams with better odds and 1 east team with equal odds to win the conference than any team from the west

horrible division and to think going into year 4, Illinois is the only west team that Scott Frost has even a chance to have a winning record against after 4 years ... and Neb has to win the game this year to secure it

this on the heels of proclaiming they would contend for the division in year 2
 
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Three teams we play we should be better than: Purdue, Illinois, MSU.
One team we're roughly equivalent to: Minnesota.
Five teams we're not expected to beat: Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan.
Conference records the past four years:
2017: 3-6
2018: 3-6
2019: 3-6
2020: 3-5
To improve on that, we're going to have to:
  • beat everybody we're supposed to (which we haven't done in a long time) AND
  • beat Minnesota in Minneapolis (last time we did that was 2015) OR
  • pull off at least one upset in four home games:
    • Northwestern (West winners in 2018 and 2020)
    • Iowa (last Nebraska victory in Lincoln was 2011)
    • Ohio State (last Nebraska victory in Lincoln was 2011)
    • Michigan (only game in Lincoln was 2012 Nebraska victory) OR
  • pull off a road victory in Wisconsin (our only victory in Madison was in 1966)
We THINK we can be better, but put into context with our recent downturn, it's going to take a lot of work.
I enjoy your posts. They are fact filled. You put a lot of work into them. Kind of like the posts back in the day of the TOUGH TONY board. No snipping just pretty much facts.
 
TeamConf.Div.
OSU-110-200
Mich.+700+450
PSU+700+450
Indiana+1100+1000
Mary.+4000+2000
MSU+5000+2500
Iowa+1100+200
Wisc.+1200+200
NW+1400+300
Minn.+2000+800
Neb.+2000+800
Purdue+5000+2000
Illinois+10000+2500

good luck out there, bettors

win totals shouldn't be too far behind.. my best guess is NU will open at o/u 7.5 wins
Where is Rutgers?
 
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Three teams we play we should be better than: Purdue, Illinois, MSU.
One team we're roughly equivalent to: Minnesota.
Five teams we're not expected to beat: Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan.
Conference records the past four years:
2017: 3-6
2018: 3-6
2019: 3-6
2020: 3-5
To improve on that, we're going to have to:
  • beat everybody we're supposed to (which we haven't done in a long time) AND
  • beat Minnesota in Minneapolis (last time we did that was 2015) OR
  • pull off at least one upset in four home games:
    • Northwestern (West winners in 2018 and 2020)
    • Iowa (last Nebraska victory in Lincoln was 2011)
    • Ohio State (last Nebraska victory in Lincoln was 2011)
    • Michigan (only game in Lincoln was 2012 Nebraska victory) OR
  • pull off a road victory in Wisconsin (our only victory in Madison was in 1966)
We THINK we can be better, but put into context with our recent downturn, it's going to take a lot of work.

I think you are way too high on NW and probably too low on Minnesota.
 
I think we can pull off 1 of those 4 at home. We actually should know a lot about our team by the OU game. Will the stupid penalties be minimized?
 
TeamConf.Div.
OSU-110-200
Mich.+700+450
PSU+700+450
Indiana+1100+1000
Mary.+4000+2000
MSU+5000+2500
Iowa+1100+200
Wisc.+1200+200
NW+1400+300
Minn.+2000+800
Neb.+2000+800
Purdue+5000+2000
Illinois+10000+2500

good luck out there, bettors

win totals shouldn't be too far behind.. my best guess is NU will open at o/u 7.5 wins
Someone explain the +800...I don't gamble and have no clue.
 
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Didn't TO teach you guys anything? I'm taking it one game at a time, including Fordham. If you tried to convince me of any win total between 3 and 9 I'll shrug and say, "who the eff knows?"
 
I think you are way too high on NW and probably too low on Minnesota.
minnesota sucked last year and has the same players. MIchigan isnt very good. NW is beatable every year. NEB SHOULD be 8-4 without even being great. Even Ohio State lost a TON. Wisconsin didn't look very good at all last year. A fairly decent team could take this division no problem next season
 
My take on our chances of winning each game.

1. Illinois- 65% W
2. Fordham- 90% W
3. Buffalo- 80% W
4. Oklahoma- 25% L
5. MSU- 60% W
6. Northwestern- 60% W
7. Michigan- 45% L
8. Minnesota- 50% L
9. Purdue- 60% W
10. Ohio State- 20% L
11. Wisconsin- 50% L
12. Iowa- 50% W

7-5 and a bowl game. I've got us dropping 2 of the 3 games I'd consider 50/50 games. That being the 2 road games. If that goes the other way I could see 8-4. Honestly I think we have the talent to do even better but that would require playing and coaching up to our full potential which we haven't come close to yet.

We really need to avoid shitting the bed in the MSU, NW and PU games. We haven't been able to avoid that so far under Frost. I still have some faith we are getting better but it's been painfully slow progress. I think we just plain have more talent than those 3 teams. I know people will give me crap for calling the Iowa and Wisconsin games toss ups since we haven't beaten either of them in a long time, but we've been close and I think we get the ditch chickens this year at home.

I don't expect Illinois to be ready week 1 for what we will bring. I don't care that we played a terrible game against them last year. If we were playing PSU this year, most people would expect them to win even though they played a shitty game against us last year.

1 caveat- if Adrian goes down for any extended length of time we will have trouble getting to 5 wins.
 
My take on our chances of winning each game.

1. Illinois- 65% W
2. Fordham- 90% W
3. Buffalo- 80% W
4. Oklahoma- 25% L
5. MSU- 60% W
6. Northwestern- 60% W
7. Michigan- 45% L
8. Minnesota- 50% L
9. Purdue- 60% W
10. Ohio State- 20% L
11. Wisconsin- 50% L
12. Iowa- 50% W


I'd say its more like this:

Illinois - 78%
Fordham- 100%
Buffalo - 97%
Oklahoma - 3 %
MSU - 80%
Northwestern - 62%
Michigan - 51%
Minnesota - 44%
Purdue - 71%
Ohio State - 12%
Wisconsin - 48%
Iowa - 57%
 
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I'd say its more like this:

Illinois - 78%
Fordham- 100%
Buffalo - 97%
Oklahoma - 3 %
MSU - 80%
Northwestern - 62%
Michigan - 51%
Minnesota - 44%
Purdue - 71%
Ohio State - 12%
Wisconsin - 48%
Iowa - 57%
Here is how I see it:

Illinois - 72%
Fordham- 100%
Buffalo- 85%
Oklahoma- 5%
Sparty- 75%
NW- 57%
Michigan- 50%
Minnesota- 45%
Purdue- 70%
Ohio St- 25%
Wisconsin- 40%
Ioway- 52%
 
Nebraska is No. 44 in the ESPN FIP rankings as of today.
Here are our opponents:
  1. Illinois (87)
  2. Fordham (NR)
  3. Buffalo (64)
  4. Oklahoma (2)
  5. Michigan State (56)
  6. Northwestern (30)
  7. Michigan (40)
  8. Minnesota (49)
  9. Purdue (50)
  10. Ohio State (5)
  11. Wisconsin (15)
  12. Iowa (23)
That's 6-6 (4-5 Big Ten) without taking into consideration Home vs. Away and assuming no upsets. Both records would be improvements on everything we've done since 2016.
 
Nebraska is No. 44 in the ESPN FIP rankings as of today.
Here are our opponents:
  1. Illinois (87)
  2. Fordham (NR)
  3. Buffalo (64)
  4. Oklahoma (2)
  5. Michigan State (56)
  6. Northwestern (30)
  7. Michigan (40)
  8. Minnesota (49)
  9. Purdue (50)
  10. Ohio State (5)
  11. Wisconsin (15)
  12. Iowa (23)
That's 6-6 (4-5 Big Ten) without taking into consideration Home vs. Away and assuming no upsets. Both records would be improvements on everything we've done since 2016.
Northwestern is too high and Minnesota is to low..

Ioway should be where NW is seating..
 
MSU - 80%

Sparty- 75%
I think you are seriously over-estimating a win at MSU. The Spartans definitely have question marks on offense but they always field one of the best Big Ten defenses and 2021 should be no different. Spartan Stadium is a tough environment. Right now, I would give Nebraska a slight advantage, maybe 55%. MSU will travel to face the Miami Hurricanes the week before Nebraska - that game will tell us a lot about MSU's offense..
 
I think you are seriously over-estimating a win at MSU. The Spartans definitely have question marks on offense but they always field one of the best Big Ten defenses and 2021 should be no different. Spartan Stadium is a tough environment. Right now, I would give Nebraska a slight advantage, maybe 55%. MSU will travel to face the Miami Hurricanes the week before Nebraska - that game will tell us a lot about MSU's offense..

I’d make it 65% for the fact that their defense was really good under Dantonio and they were very good on defense last year..
Mel Tucker had a better team in Boulder than what he has now and he is starting a new QB...

I can see your concern but there is reason to be more optimistic against Sparty...
 
My take on our chances of winning each game.

1. Illinois- 65% W
2. Fordham- 90% W
3. Buffalo- 80% W
4. Oklahoma- 25% L
5. MSU- 60% W
6. Northwestern- 60% W
7. Michigan- 45% L
8. Minnesota- 50% L
9. Purdue- 60% W
10. Ohio State- 20% L
11. Wisconsin- 50% L
12. Iowa- 50% W

7-5 and a bowl game. I've got us dropping 2 of the 3 games I'd consider 50/50 games. That being the 2 road games. If that goes the other way I could see 8-4. Honestly I think we have the talent to do even better but that would require playing and coaching up to our full potential which we haven't come close to yet.

We really need to avoid shitting the bed in the MSU, NW and PU games. We haven't been able to avoid that so far under Frost. I still have some faith we are getting better but it's been painfully slow progress. I think we just plain have more talent than those 3 teams. I know people will give me crap for calling the Iowa and Wisconsin games toss ups since we haven't beaten either of them in a long time, but we've been close and I think we get the ditch chickens this year at home.

I don't expect Illinois to be ready week 1 for what we will bring. I don't care that we played a terrible game against them last year. If we were playing PSU this year, most people would expect them to win even though they played a shitty game against us last year.

1 caveat- if Adrian goes down for any extended length of time we will have trouble getting to 5 wins.
Fordham @ 90% ? LOL Come on man we will bitch slap them with the second string.
 
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5-7 to 7-5. The percentages are irrelevant because Nebraska will drop a game it shouldn’t and may win a game they are expected to lose.
 
FWIW, I expect us to beat Northwestern. They lost a lot, including a good QB.

29. QB Ryan Hilinski, South Carolina → Northwestern​

Northwestern went to the portal for a starting quarterback once again following the success of Peyton Ramsey, and Hilinksi has done a nice job so far of making the transition. After starting 11 games as a true freshman, Hilinski had to spend the 2020 season on the bench. He’s ready to lead and make an impact again. - The Athletic ranking Top 50 Portal transfers.
 
I think you are seriously over-estimating a win at MSU. The Spartans definitely have question marks on offense but they always field one of the best Big Ten defenses and 2021 should be no different. Spartan Stadium is a tough environment. Right now, I would give Nebraska a slight advantage, maybe 55%. MSU will travel to face the Miami Hurricanes the week before Nebraska - that game will tell us a lot about MSU's offense..


Sparty gave up 400 yards and 35 ppg last season despite the presence of two excellent NFL talents in Naquan Jones and Antjuan Simmons.

Do I think their defense will be improved? Sure.

But my expectations of Michigan State have more to do with their offensive transition to a Pro style scheme with a Statuesqe QB transfer from Temple, Anthony Russo. Their pass pro was dreadful last season, and it will again as Russo, at 6'4 250 lbs, runs like a 5.7 forty. I think Nebraska vs. that type of scheme, a suspect offensive line, and a pocket passer is going to eat that type of team for lunch.

Russo also has 32 interceptions in 27 career games, playing in the American Conference.
 
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