I'm okay with this outcome, cautiously optimistic, and think there are some major points being overlooked:
1. Most important out of everything, they made the decision to fire him. Frost took a 20% pay cut and gave up $7.5 million in additional guarantees. He didn't do that out of the goodness of his heart. It's very clear that they were ready to pay him to leave, if he wasn't willing to restructure the contract. If not, there was no reason for Frost to do so.
2. Frost bet on himself. HE believes he can win here, next year. The contract is tailor made to fire him next year, even in season, if he doesn't show results. And he gave up a lot to get that chance. That means an awful lot, and while it's rare, the track record for those who've done it is extremely promising.
3. The decision to retain was made only after Frost laid out a comprehensive plan to turn things around. This was evidenced by the immediate terminations of four assistant coaches. I doubt Alberts told him who he needed to hire and fire, and I hope he didn't. But it's obvious that Scott had to lay out a reasonable and tangible plan for immediate success, and the status quo was unacceptable. Problems had to be addressed, causes had to be identified, and solutions had to be determined.
4. It baffles me that so many are blinded to the true mediocrity we've experienced, but nonetheless, it's true. And Alberts cannot overlook that. Firing Frost would've created a rift in the fan base, and while not firing him may result in a decrease in ticket sales and donations, firing him clearly would've done the same. Even the President and the Chancellor appear to be fully blinded to it, along with a number of Regents. The next guy would've very likely been sabotaged just as Callahan and Riley were, without more widespread buy-in for the need to change. I trust that given no perfect solution, Alberts analyzed the risk/reward of either choice.
5. Alberts reinforced that recruiting matters! The only reason to make this announcement and these changes now is recruiting. That's not a small thing, but it is a disturbingly underperforming area that cannot be overlooked. And there's time to address it, especially with a small class. But waiting until after the season to make staff changes would've killed it. The right hires can make a big impact.
6. If we can keep the defensive staff in tact (a big if, sure) we're not that far away. Talent wise, we've closed the gap. The portal makes filling needs much easier. It's all coaching. While those coaches are on Frost, the right hires can turn this quickly. And if they're not, we're much better positioned to move on quickly, even in season.
7. The precedent has been set to make a move in-season. Not only were assistants fired in-season, but based on the restructure agreement, it was addressed in season, and if he'd refused to restructure, then a change would've almost certainly been made at the top, immediately. This is huge with the accelerated signing day. If Frost struggles early, make the change. Use the next two games as a big part of that evaluation. If we lose those, especially if we get beat soundly, a loss in Ireland may be enough to pull the plug. If we play well to close out the season, an early stumble may be met with a bit more patience. But losing more than 1-2 early would result in a change. Get a jump on his replacement and have the new coach ready to start recruiting as soon as possible. USC and LSU are likely ready to announce new coaches immediately after those coach's current teams finish their regular season. Plus, if the offense still sputters or ST are incompetent, we could have a chance to see what interim HC Chin could do, similar to Dabo's trial run in 2008.
8. The coaching market isn't ideal this year based on where we sit. No, I disagree with the assertion that there's a huge number of high profile openings this year. That happens every year. But there's no question USC and LSU got a head start. Plus, there's only one realistic grand slam coaching hire, guaranteed to turn it around immediately, and that's Urban Meyer. But he won't be in the market until at least next year. One can dream, right?
I still think Frost is the biggest issue, and I question whether he has the leadership and organizational skills, and all the intangibles necessary to be a great head coach at this level. But he'll have a chance to prove me wrong and redeem his legacy. And he bet big on himself to get that opportunity. In a sea of bad choices, let's hope this was the best option.
1. Most important out of everything, they made the decision to fire him. Frost took a 20% pay cut and gave up $7.5 million in additional guarantees. He didn't do that out of the goodness of his heart. It's very clear that they were ready to pay him to leave, if he wasn't willing to restructure the contract. If not, there was no reason for Frost to do so.
2. Frost bet on himself. HE believes he can win here, next year. The contract is tailor made to fire him next year, even in season, if he doesn't show results. And he gave up a lot to get that chance. That means an awful lot, and while it's rare, the track record for those who've done it is extremely promising.
3. The decision to retain was made only after Frost laid out a comprehensive plan to turn things around. This was evidenced by the immediate terminations of four assistant coaches. I doubt Alberts told him who he needed to hire and fire, and I hope he didn't. But it's obvious that Scott had to lay out a reasonable and tangible plan for immediate success, and the status quo was unacceptable. Problems had to be addressed, causes had to be identified, and solutions had to be determined.
4. It baffles me that so many are blinded to the true mediocrity we've experienced, but nonetheless, it's true. And Alberts cannot overlook that. Firing Frost would've created a rift in the fan base, and while not firing him may result in a decrease in ticket sales and donations, firing him clearly would've done the same. Even the President and the Chancellor appear to be fully blinded to it, along with a number of Regents. The next guy would've very likely been sabotaged just as Callahan and Riley were, without more widespread buy-in for the need to change. I trust that given no perfect solution, Alberts analyzed the risk/reward of either choice.
5. Alberts reinforced that recruiting matters! The only reason to make this announcement and these changes now is recruiting. That's not a small thing, but it is a disturbingly underperforming area that cannot be overlooked. And there's time to address it, especially with a small class. But waiting until after the season to make staff changes would've killed it. The right hires can make a big impact.
6. If we can keep the defensive staff in tact (a big if, sure) we're not that far away. Talent wise, we've closed the gap. The portal makes filling needs much easier. It's all coaching. While those coaches are on Frost, the right hires can turn this quickly. And if they're not, we're much better positioned to move on quickly, even in season.
7. The precedent has been set to make a move in-season. Not only were assistants fired in-season, but based on the restructure agreement, it was addressed in season, and if he'd refused to restructure, then a change would've almost certainly been made at the top, immediately. This is huge with the accelerated signing day. If Frost struggles early, make the change. Use the next two games as a big part of that evaluation. If we lose those, especially if we get beat soundly, a loss in Ireland may be enough to pull the plug. If we play well to close out the season, an early stumble may be met with a bit more patience. But losing more than 1-2 early would result in a change. Get a jump on his replacement and have the new coach ready to start recruiting as soon as possible. USC and LSU are likely ready to announce new coaches immediately after those coach's current teams finish their regular season. Plus, if the offense still sputters or ST are incompetent, we could have a chance to see what interim HC Chin could do, similar to Dabo's trial run in 2008.
8. The coaching market isn't ideal this year based on where we sit. No, I disagree with the assertion that there's a huge number of high profile openings this year. That happens every year. But there's no question USC and LSU got a head start. Plus, there's only one realistic grand slam coaching hire, guaranteed to turn it around immediately, and that's Urban Meyer. But he won't be in the market until at least next year. One can dream, right?
I still think Frost is the biggest issue, and I question whether he has the leadership and organizational skills, and all the intangibles necessary to be a great head coach at this level. But he'll have a chance to prove me wrong and redeem his legacy. And he bet big on himself to get that opportunity. In a sea of bad choices, let's hope this was the best option.
