Anyone jumped back in

Discussion in 'Husker Board' started by jflores, Mar 26, 2020.

  1. jflores

    jflores Defensive Coordinator
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    The market?

    I'm still sitting on the sidelines waiting for the final shoe to drop.

    In my opinion we still have roughly a few weeks worth of bad news yet so this isn't the bottom.

    I feel like if the powers that be really felt we had a chance at business as usual in two weeks they wouldn't have bothered finishing a stimulus bill or at least not as comprehensive of one as we got. Nor would it be necessary to send the first checks in May some weeks after normal operation was enacted.
     
  2. Suhrreal

    Suhrreal All-American
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    Wait until the end of the quarter to reevaluate.
     
  3. scarletred

    scarletred Nebraska Legend
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    Monday would of been a good day to jump in at the time..

    Going to be another downward turn when the new quarter starts...You’ll never be able to time the market perfectly when you think it’s at it’s lowest, just like you never know when it’s reached it’s peak at it’s highest..

    This is what my financial advisor told me years ago..
     
  4. SnohomishRed

    SnohomishRed Offensive Coordinator
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    Depends on when you got out - its pretty low right now not a bad time to get back in especially with all the money the feds are flooding into the economy. It will takes some time to come back and not sure all of it will come back. I do think the market will be back pretty quickly and dramatically.

    The difference in this downturn is everyone knows what caused it, things were solid before it reared its ugly head. Finally the Feds and government have a games plan of do's and dont's from 2008 and they are moving quicker this time.
     
  5. headcard

    headcard Nebraska Legend
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    I haven’t slowed down any of my contributions, but haven’t made any new investments. I’m in my early 40’s, so still have plenty of time before retirement and want as much stock as possible now. Anyone looking somewhat long term, would be wise to go ahead and pull the trigger. While we aren’t at the bottom yet, it’s pretty dam low. The way I look at it, the economy bounces back in a couple years and your glad you do, or it doesn’t and your completely F’ed anyway. Short term, I would still be pretty leery.
     
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  6. jflores

    jflores Defensive Coordinator
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    Same boat. 38. I'm getting a deal now just kinda waiting for a bit bigger one lol.
     
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  7. dinglefritz

    dinglefritz College Football Hall of Fame
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    I'm expecting a dead cat bounce in the DJIA, but I think we'll go back down and test the very bottom. Then earnings week I'm afraid could lead to more downside. I dunno. We'll see. At some point the news has to turn more positive but there is ZERO chance that we head back to our highs any time soon IMO.
     
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  8. SOCALHSKR

    SOCALHSKR Redshirt Freshman
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    I think this is me as well. I'm playing it for a W recovery, not V or L or U
     
  9. Suhrreal

    Suhrreal All-American
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    lol praying today for a 50-bagger with 3/27 expiry myself
     
  10. Sinomatic

    Sinomatic Sophomore
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    Waiting for 18 on the DOW for my next push.

    Haven't stopped my regular contributions at all. Just removed my sum total at the start of the drop in the first week of Feb. I'm reentering 20% of that sum at 20k pts, then 18, then 16. Unless we get some really really good news, then ill be buying back in all the way. I was fortunate to act early and now have a fat cushion to get back in.

    I don't think we are out of the woods which is why I'm not all in yet. But I'm not out by any means.

    I think you're missing out if you're not making prudent regular contributions while its cheap
     
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  11. Bugeater

    Bugeater Defensive Coordinator
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    Totally maxed out on the 401k side, maxing out Roth. John Rogers of Ariel Investments says take advantage of the plunge.
     
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  12. Harry Caray

    Harry Caray Head Coach
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    I wish I had now, the Dow is up 4,000 points since Monday.
     
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  13. baseball31ne

    baseball31ne Recruiting Coordinator
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    Never left it. The ride isn’t easy but the market will return.
     
  14. scarletred

    scarletred Nebraska Legend
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    Me too... When your retired the worse thing too do is panic in a time like this....

    Have cash on the side but waiting for another big down turn..
     
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  15. GBRforLife1

    GBRforLife1 Walk On
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    Abt 60% back in. Some positions are up over 50% the last 3 days.

    Oil might be going to single digits. If that happens s&p could be down pretty big. That'd probably be the time to shoot your shot.
     
  16. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Redshirt Freshman
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    Not a chance in hell it goes into single digits. Literally cant happen. That would mean there is zero demand globally and production is completely shut off.
     
  17. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Redshirt Freshman
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    Boeing and UTC have bounced back some but are still the best stock investments of the last 25 years. Both have dealt with circumstantial drops but are both fundamentally very strong companies.
     
  18. SomedayHusker

    SomedayHusker Walk On
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    I short sold a vertical call spread yesterday basically at the high of the day, expiring in June, so I do think it gets a little worse. That bottom it made on the chart does not look safe to me at all.

    In Event 201, the “coincidental” simulation Bill Gates and friends ran one month before the outbreak, it got a lot worse after 6 months. In the simulation; 65 million died over 18 months. That major report that supposedly the politicians follow also listed 18 months.
     
  19. huskerfan66

    huskerfan66 Assistant Head Coach
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    By my definition you can rule out a dead cat bounce. Not saying a W can't happen.

    Remember, elevator down, escalator up.
     
    19 huskerfan66, Mar 26, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
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  20. GBRforLife1

    GBRforLife1 Walk On
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    It literally can happen. Not sure if it will. We'll see. When supply is millions of barrels above demand there isn't much to support the price. Also world's biggest supplier is offering massive discounts.

    Bookmark this so you can tell me how wrong I might be.
     
  21. The_Glove_Man

    The_Glove_Man Junior
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    Put about half of my available cash in earlier in the week. Waiting to see what happens before going all in. I think we'll retest the lows and maybe go a little lower in the next couple of months. There are going to be some ugly headlines and continued self-isolation for several weeks which will continue to be a drag on the economy.

    FYI I predicted a bottom for the DJIA at 18,000 in another thread on this topic. Current low is 18591 on 3/23. Just saying.
     
  22. Kleitusbpn

    Kleitusbpn Redshirt Freshman
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    I'm out for a few days. Will get back in on or soon after the next 8-10+%down day.

    Only playing in medium term winners.
     
  23. Kleitusbpn

    Kleitusbpn Redshirt Freshman
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    It can but it won't stay there long. They're shooting monetary cannons at the economy with the new QE and they've barely begun and private investment will understand that means monetary and eventual price inflation. Theyll store it like they've done before and make a killing over a 5 year period.
     
  24. Dean Pope

    Dean Pope Offensive Coordinator
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    I sold only 15% to cash early this month. So seeing it come up is nice, but I just don't see a lot of positives in the economy right now. So I'm going to wait, expecting the overall market to go down, down, down.

    The question I'm mulling is what to do with my cash when I do get back in? Growth index? S&P Index? Inflation protected securities? Small cap? Maybe look for some individual companies with no debt? What companies come out the winners in all this? Amazon? Walmart?

    I've got lots of questions I guess!
     
  25. Kleitusbpn

    Kleitusbpn Redshirt Freshman
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    In 2008 after october, gdx (gold miners etf) went up 3x in about 2 years from the bottom. I know one silver play that did roughly 50x in 18 months. Then they didn't move for a decade. The lesson? It's cyclical... and the general economy doesnt move right away.

    The commodities will move first. And given the size of the cannons being shot by the fed, i'd suspect that 2008 move will look tiny in comparison.
     
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  26. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Redshirt Freshman
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    Just think this through: saudi arabia has the lowest cost per barrel in extraction that falls in the 20-21 dollar range. They are flush with cash and the entire energy industry there is nationalized. What would cause them to sell oil at half of the cost of production?
     
  27. rrthusker

    rrthusker Administrator
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    Never left it.
     
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  28. huskerfan66

    huskerfan66 Assistant Head Coach
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    I said 20,000 I believe. Atleast we're out of bear territory
     
  29. GBRforLife1

    GBRforLife1 Walk On
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    The answer is of course Russia.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/oil...s-to-ramp-up-production-amid-russia-feud.html

    Which seems really stupid of Putin. He and his buddies are already billionaires. Just go with it and enjoy it. Store your excess and prop up the price and sell some on the side like all the other OPEC countries.

    I have read that Saudi Arabia has 100s of millions of barrels of oil in storage. They could easily use that to flood the market and it wouldn't matter what their extraction cost is.
     
  30. Kleitusbpn

    Kleitusbpn Redshirt Freshman
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    Happens all the time in lucrative markets. Oil services stocks etf call options roughly... 6 months from now and sell in say... 2 years?

    The question is whether the dollar can handle this more than anything.

    Edit: I will add... markets tend to swing from one extreme to the other. All time relative lows to all time highs.

    In other words, this might be the buy of the decade in a couple months.
     
    31 Kleitusbpn, Mar 26, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
  31. Kleitusbpn

    Kleitusbpn Redshirt Freshman
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    Imo unless they directly intervene by buying indexes we are going under 10. Maybe not far under or for very long. But anyone who understands how bad the debt bubble was can see this market could be worth say... 1000 right now realistically given they are forward looking and the next quarter will suck. And I'm not talking the s&p with that number.

    Getting this kickstarted by the election will be half a miracle. We might be talking 30 trillion in spending/printing to get this kickstarted. And even that might not cut it... only drive inflation.
     
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  32. jflores

    jflores Defensive Coordinator
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    Here come the vultures... We can be reasonably confident Trump will side with Main Street ?

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...ronavirus-carnage-to-wipe-out-small-business/
     
  33. jmliehr

    jmliehr Blackshirt
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    Interesting read from the past...Wall Street has the playbook ready, a lot of people made a killing off this and will continue to do so. Be careful trying to catch falling knives everyone!

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rigger-global-recession-idUSBRE90K0F820130121

    Wall Street never encountered a disaster it couldn’t profit from, and pandemics are no exception. Several companies have produced investor guides to avian flu. In the event of an outbreak, Citigroup concluded in a 2005 report, investors should short companies whose revenues come from malls, casinos, air travel, and tourism. Analysts were also bearish on labor-intensive industries and countries with “inflexible” labor laws (most of Europe) because companies cannot easily fire workers if demand for their products falls off a cliff.

    In contrast, Citi says avian flu will not only benefit healthcare companies but also those that provide products and services people turn to when they’re afraid to leave home: telecoms, Internet commerce companies, home entertainment and even utilities. Finally, because any worldwide calamity sends currency traders scurrying for safe havens, Citi expects the dollar to rise in the event of a pandemic. Overall, it concluded, “We would expect global economic activity to decline, raw material prices to collapse, risk aversion to rise, monetary policy to ease, and interest rates to fall.”
     
  34. Kleitusbpn

    Kleitusbpn Redshirt Freshman
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    By the way... the 30 trillion number?

    Think of what they'd need to do to lower interest rates to allow main street to refi due to Coronavirus so things don't collapse... they'd basically need to buy the entire us debt remaining plus what we spend for the next 18 months. All with printed cash.

    Because foreigners won't want to renew buying. They have their own problems. And that means our debt has to be funded somehow.

    Throw in the carry trade of hedge funds using other currencies to buy dollars to capture our yields with their negative rates.

    All of that has some serious potential to unwind at once in this. There is some seriously bad juju here.
     
  35. The_Glove_Man

    The_Glove_Man Junior
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    Buffett says the most important question in the world is what negative interest rates would do to markets. I wonder if we're about to find out.

    I'm not sure I agree that it is the most important question in the world, but then I'm not a billionaire so what do I know.
     
  36. TheBeav815

    TheBeav815 Nebraska Football Hall of Fame
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    I never jumped out. I haven't even looked at my 401k balance. I will plunk more in if I have leftovers after paying off my credit card.

    I think it goes back lower when the news really comes in about how various sectors are being hit by the sudden stop downturn. 3M new jobless claims isn't going to be just reversed in a couple weeks if they say we can go back to our offices again.

    I expect the economy to get worse before it gets better. A lot of people never really recovered from '08.

    But what that will mean to the rich guys who own most of the stock and haven't seen any real change in their lives we shall see. They just want someplace for their hoard of cash to grow.
     
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  37. pahusker139

    pahusker139 Walk On
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    Doubled my retirement contributions.
     
  38. GBRforLife1

    GBRforLife1 Walk On
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  39. jflores

    jflores Defensive Coordinator
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    I'd buckle up then, Maryland is poised to shelter-in-place any day now, and I'm sure other states will be too. April 12 not looking good for normal.

    Quite frankly "normal" won't be normal with half the country having kids out of school for basically the rest of the year. Hard to have the same economic output when you have to Martha Stewart more than you used to.
     
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