A lot of discussions going on around these parts about the last 15 years, so I thought I'd do a little exercise to look at "blowouts" over the last 15 1/2 seasons to get a feel for where Nebraska stacks up against the teams that we largely consider our 'peers'. The list was 18 teams deep and a "blowout" was defined as any loss of 21 pts or more.
The 18 teams:
Nebraska | Iowa | Michigan | Michigan St | Ohio St | Penn St | Wisconsin | Clemson | Florida St | Miami | Oklahoma | Texas | Alabama | Auburn | Florida | Georgia | Oregon | USC
This is obviously a bit of a random grouping, but at the same time, it's a good mix of teams and conferences that have all had some ebbs and flows in terms of talent and coaching over the last 15 1/2 seasons. What I wanted to see was where Nebraska stacked up over that time period in terms of "blowouts". Why 21 points? Because of the debates on here about what constitutes a "blowout". We can argue all day long about where the line begins, but think we can all agree that 21 pts is for certain a "blowout". And don't worry, as you'll see, that metric more than serves its purpose in this analysis.
This is an agenda-free post. It's strictly data-driven and most of you can draw your own conclusions and can look into further research about what tipping points were for certain schools. None of this revelatory, other than putting the data on paper in one place for comparison sake. It clearly shows that over the time period, we really don't have much to brag about (duh...). It also clearly shows that where we are has been the norm for over a decade and a half. So when people are asking what Oklahoma is selling in terms of their recruiting weekend... they're selling a record that averages 2.6 losses and 0.625 blowouts per season. Us on the other hand, we have to try to sell a recent historical trend that averages 4.7 losses and 1.625 blowouts per season. Sobering.
BASELINE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD:
*Average number of blowouts per team over 15 1/2 seasons: 13.5
*Average number of blowouts per team per season: 0.85
*Average number of losses per blowout: 4.4
Points That I Found Interesting:
*Of these 18 teams, only 3 teams have suffered 20+ blowouts over the time period: Nebraska (26), Oregon (23), Michigan St (21) - (Mich St was front-loaded with 12 of those between '02-'06. Oregon was front and back-loaded with only 4 between '07-'15). Nebraska has been a model of consistency, on the other hand, posting 9 from '02-'06, 9 more from '07-'11, and 8 from '12-present.
*Nebraska led the group with an average of 1.625 blowouts per season. The average across all 18 teams was 0.85 per season.
*Michigan St barely edged out Nebraska in terms of avg losses per season over the period - 4.8125 to 4.6875, respectively.
*Alabama (1), Ohio State (4), Wisconsin (9), and USC (9) have been insanely consistent in terms of competitiveness, all posting less than 10 total blowouts over this period.
*Nebraska was topped only by Oregon over the period in terms of losses per blowout, meaning that only Oregon had a higher percentage of blowouts/losses. That was a function of Oregon losing a lot less however, as Oregon lost 58 games over the period to Nebraska's 75 losses.
*For all of our ragging on Iowa, they have 15 fewer blowout losses than us over the last 15 1/2 seasons. They have 11 blowout losses against 71 overall losses.
*Perhaps what I found most striking was the number of seasons where teams had losing seasons, but were still competitive in the majority of games.
The 18 teams:
Nebraska | Iowa | Michigan | Michigan St | Ohio St | Penn St | Wisconsin | Clemson | Florida St | Miami | Oklahoma | Texas | Alabama | Auburn | Florida | Georgia | Oregon | USC
This is obviously a bit of a random grouping, but at the same time, it's a good mix of teams and conferences that have all had some ebbs and flows in terms of talent and coaching over the last 15 1/2 seasons. What I wanted to see was where Nebraska stacked up over that time period in terms of "blowouts". Why 21 points? Because of the debates on here about what constitutes a "blowout". We can argue all day long about where the line begins, but think we can all agree that 21 pts is for certain a "blowout". And don't worry, as you'll see, that metric more than serves its purpose in this analysis.
This is an agenda-free post. It's strictly data-driven and most of you can draw your own conclusions and can look into further research about what tipping points were for certain schools. None of this revelatory, other than putting the data on paper in one place for comparison sake. It clearly shows that over the time period, we really don't have much to brag about (duh...). It also clearly shows that where we are has been the norm for over a decade and a half. So when people are asking what Oklahoma is selling in terms of their recruiting weekend... they're selling a record that averages 2.6 losses and 0.625 blowouts per season. Us on the other hand, we have to try to sell a recent historical trend that averages 4.7 losses and 1.625 blowouts per season. Sobering.
BASELINE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD:
*Average number of blowouts per team over 15 1/2 seasons: 13.5
*Average number of blowouts per team per season: 0.85
*Average number of losses per blowout: 4.4
Points That I Found Interesting:
*Of these 18 teams, only 3 teams have suffered 20+ blowouts over the time period: Nebraska (26), Oregon (23), Michigan St (21) - (Mich St was front-loaded with 12 of those between '02-'06. Oregon was front and back-loaded with only 4 between '07-'15). Nebraska has been a model of consistency, on the other hand, posting 9 from '02-'06, 9 more from '07-'11, and 8 from '12-present.
*Nebraska led the group with an average of 1.625 blowouts per season. The average across all 18 teams was 0.85 per season.
*Michigan St barely edged out Nebraska in terms of avg losses per season over the period - 4.8125 to 4.6875, respectively.
*Alabama (1), Ohio State (4), Wisconsin (9), and USC (9) have been insanely consistent in terms of competitiveness, all posting less than 10 total blowouts over this period.
*Nebraska was topped only by Oregon over the period in terms of losses per blowout, meaning that only Oregon had a higher percentage of blowouts/losses. That was a function of Oregon losing a lot less however, as Oregon lost 58 games over the period to Nebraska's 75 losses.
*For all of our ragging on Iowa, they have 15 fewer blowout losses than us over the last 15 1/2 seasons. They have 11 blowout losses against 71 overall losses.
*Perhaps what I found most striking was the number of seasons where teams had losing seasons, but were still competitive in the majority of games.
