Anyone who says this team isn't on the bubble as of today is day dreaming. It may very well come down to MSU or NU from the Big Ten. Luckily we have NW and Purdue coming up but we know there is not guarantee wins under Erstads watch. The boring brand of offense is growing stale very fast.
6-9 in the Big Ten
- Thread starter huskerbaseball13
- Start date
Sweeping NW and Purdue is an absolute must. If we don't, we are looking at a losing conference record because I can't see us winning even 1 at Illinois. And that would get us just to .500. That may not be good enough to get us in. RPI and record don't mean squat with a conference record like that. That would probably have got us in when we were in the Big 12, but I'm skeptical the selection committee has that much respect for the B1G yet. Maybe with a few wins in the conference tournament we could get in. Basically we went this weekend from being on the inside of the bubble to being something of a longshot that has to play itself in. Unbelievable.
Even with the year the conference is having I'm not banking on the selection committee giving that much credit to the Big Ten. If we fail to sweep the next two weekends we are looking at going under .500 in the Big Ten. Pretty sad. Year four folks.
Bubble? We need to qualify for the B1G tournament first or the won't even be a bubble to worry about.
We are not 'lucky' that NW and Purdue are coming up for us. We are unlucky that NW and Purdue are the only losers we meet in the B1G.
What would our conference record be if we played all five (not two) of the worst teams but no Maryland or Iowa? You know, like Illinois is doing. Or if we played four (not two) of the worst but no Illinois or OSU like Iowa is?
Give us Illinois' schedule (or Iowa's) and we all would be a whole helluva lot happier right now. We would be in the running for the lead. Replace MD and IA with PSU and RU and we would very likely be 12-5 with NW and Purdue up. How does that sound?
Illinois is good but they've had a cake walk to the top. Give me a break.
So now the excuse is that our conference schedule is too tough? Good luck getting sympathy from the selection committee on that.
We might be able to make that argument with a 9-6 record. Or maybe even 8-7. But 6-9? No.
It's true we will have played the toughest schedule in the Big Ten. But let's be real...this was not some murders row we faced and we went 1-8 against the Big Ten teams lined up for a regional. 1-8. So, I have a hard time blaming anyone but the staff and team. We will get our chance vs the Illini but I can't say I'm very confident we will win that series. At this point getting swept seems far more likely. This awful lineup vs their staff? I guess thats why they play the game.
You're right...we would be happy with their schedule, because Nebraska would be on it. And over a weekend, the Huskers are good for 3 additional tick marks in the win column for any team not in the B1G cellar. This team sucks right now.
Like someone said, we are in year 4, and are almost guaranteed of the worst B1G record in the Erstad era.
Last edited:
And once again, you can make that argument with a slightly better record. Not currently at 6-9.-and probably 12-12 at best, maybe 13-11 in a very optimistic projection. The B1G may be seen as being better, but I'm not at all convinced that .500 is going to be good enough for the selection committee.
Couldnt agree more with you. I know many believe its an RPI/SOS/35+ win type deal I'm not convinced at all .500 will do it. Especially getting there by feasting on the bottom since we are 1-8 right now against the top teams in our league. If we roll into the B1G with either of the records noted above we need to win at least 2 games to feel good about our chances.
Again, the committee doesn't care about conference record. Conferences with mega invites, such as SEC and ACC, will have teams in with losing records. Happens every year.
Last year the SEC had 10 bids, this year they will have 9 or 8.
Last year the ACC had 7 bids, this year they will have 7 or 6.
The B 12 had 5 bids, this year 2.
The PAC had 5, this year 3.
Big West had 4, this year 2.
There are 8-10 slots that won't be going to those conferences this year. Those slots will be filled by someone else. Someone with lots of wins, strong RPI and strong SOS. We will be one of those 'someones'.
Relax and root for us to beat Creighton and sweep NW.
This is not the SEC or the ACC. The B1G has improved, but we still are 6th in conference RPI. It's a big assumption that the committee won't care that we are .500 in the conference. And getting to that point is going to be difficult anyway. Asking us to sweep on the road vs. Northwestern, a team that has often given us fits regardless of how good they are is a pretty tall order.
Improved? Going from a two bid conference to a five bid conference is not just an improvement, it's earth shifting.
We are 6th in conference RPI b/c of our horrible teams at the bottom. The AAC has only 8 teams, the B12 just 9, we have 13. If those two conferences went out and packed in 13 teams the conference RPI order would change. Conference RPI is a misleading indicator.
SEC - 8 or 9 bids
ACC - 6 or 7 bids
B1G - 5 bids
PAC - 3 bids
B12 - 2 bids
AAC - 2 bids
We are third best conference.
If the Big Ten is a 5 bid conference this year the question will be will MSU or NU get that last bid? It's going to be close.
Maybe. But with Maryland's 9 top 50 RPI wins currently.... highly doubtful. Unless they tank of course.
My view is that NU, MSU and Maryland all have resumes worthy of a bid. When 8-10 spots open up b/c the usual multi-bid conferences can't fill their usual spots, outsiders will move in. That's the case this year. And, depending on how the outsiders shake out, the B1G could shake in with six bids. This is that kind of year. RPI rules. Outsiders got it, insiders not so much. This year.
Also, the SEC had 10 bids last year. Just two of them made it out of the regionals. This won't be lost on the committee.
Similar threads
