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2019 Blue Chip Ratio - National Title contenders

So far, the statistics prove that it is a big deal and anyone interested in a national title should care.
Oh, I care, but my point is, if youve had a great year, are healthy and heading into the championship game, if the depth is never needed, it doesnt matter.
Thing is, at that point, a team should be catching up at this point, maybe not surpassing a bama, but close enough to maintain those 28 ballers.
 
I know, it is weird how every year we have this thread. Must be because it is still true. Strange how that works.

So $100, I'll take the teams provided on the list, you take the field?
How about $100, I'll take Alabama or Clemson. You can have the rest of the teams on the list.
 
Why would I give you two teams in my list. You seem to believe the 50% ratio is BS.

Heck I would bet the $100 that all 4 playoff teams come from that group of teams.
You get 14 teams to my 2. If your blue chip theory is correct, that should be pretty good odds for you don't you think?
 
I gave you 2 options and you took neither, apparently you believe in the blue chip theory as well.

You have 114 teams to fill one of 4 spots.
I don't bet so I wouldn't take any option anyway. I gave you 14 teams on that list to 2 and you wouldn't take that, so apparently you don't think those 14 teams have a very good chance at winning either.
 
I don't bet so I wouldn't take any option anyway. I gave you 14 teams on that list to 2 and you wouldn't take that, so apparently you don't think those 14 teams have a very good chance at winning either.

I gave you 114 teams to fill one slot of 4, so apparently you don't think any of those 114 have a good chance at finishing in the top 4.
 
I gave you 114 teams to fill one slot of 4, so apparently you don't think any of those 114 have a good chance at finishing in the top 4.
I'm not going to bet with you. I was just playing along because I knew you couldn't back it up.
 
I'm not going to bet with you. I was just playing along because I knew you couldn't back it up.

Couldn't back what up? One of those 16 teams will win the title. 4 of those 16 teams will be in the CFP. I believe you have to have 50% of your roster be 4 stars or higher. So I am backing it up completely.

You sir are the one that isn't backing anything up. If you don't believe in the the blue chip theory, then you should have no problem picking any of the other 114 teams to land just one of the 4 CFP spots.

No money, just a friendly gentleman's bet.
 
Couldn't back what up? One of those 16 teams will win the title. 4 of those 16 teams will be in the CFP. I believe you have to have 50% of your roster be 4 stars or higher. So I am backing it up completely.

You sir are the one that isn't backing anything up. If you don't believe in the the blue chip theory, then you should have no problem picking any of the other 114 teams to land just one of the 4 CFP spots.

No money, just a friendly gentleman's bet.
No I wouldn't take that. Not this year. Doesn't mean it can't happen though.
 
So our formula is basically the same as Iowa - iowa state - Illinois - kansas - oregon state etc etc

But the results will be different for us.

More or less jlb, yes. On one hand, when we get all teary eyed about Husker lore, we get all proud that we took a bunch of overlooked corn fed kids and rolled over the recruiting prima donnas in our heyday. The former Pipeline players have made a good living in middle age telling stories like that in the media how no one would give them the time of day but Papa TO took them in and turned them into beasts. Papa TO talks about the necessity of creating a unique system that would allow him to compete at the highest levels without necessarily 1:1 like talent. He was the spread 30 years before the spread came along.

Yes he recruited well, and in his heyday very well, but we got an awful lot of wins and most of our significant wins by simply developing what was available to us, and out-recruiting the big boys by maybe as little as one player at key positions (like say QB or RB).

So we can't turn around and wipe the tears out of our eyes and then throw all that away and just say TO was recruiting FSU caliber players his whole career, he wasn't. I mean shit, I forget which one of the Pipeline boys was pissed Texas Tech turned him down...and TTech wasn't crap in the early 90s.
 
Lest we forget when we ran Solich out of town and Callahan abandoned the option....we had not known the depths of loss to come and most of the fan base hadn't lost the pride that had already been lost on the field years ago...the collective panic that we were no longer unique and we'd now have to 1:1 recruit with the Bama's of the world because we couldn't put Bennington kids in half the offensive position slots and go grab a couple key players from the coasts.

We knew it then, but have since forgotten it in the epic oral retelling of our glory days. No one is saying we need to recruit crap players, but we were always sort of a hybrid between what Iowa has to do, and what Bama does.
 
More or less jlb, yes. On one hand, when we get all teary eyed about Husker lore, we get all proud that we took a bunch of overlooked corn fed kids and rolled over the recruiting prima donnas in our heyday. The former Pipeline players have made a good living in middle age telling stories like that in the media how no one would give them the time of day but Papa TO took them in and turned them into beasts. Papa TO talks about the necessity of creating a unique system that would allow him to compete at the highest levels without necessarily 1:1 like talent. He was the spread 30 years before the spread came along.

Yes he recruited well, and in his heyday very well, but we got an awful lot of wins and most of our significant wins by simply developing what was available to us, and out-recruiting the big boys by maybe as little as one player at key positions (like say QB or RB).

So we can't turn around and wipe the tears out of our eyes and then throw all that away and just say TO was recruiting FSU caliber players his whole career, he wasn't. I mean shit, I forget which one of the Pipeline boys was pissed Texas Tech turned him down...and TTech wasn't crap in the early 90s.

The biggest difference that I see is the offense. As much as you want to say Nebraska was the spread 30 years before the spread, Osborne’s offense was predicated on bulldozing OL, a blocking FB and WRs and TEs who could block and catch an occasional pass. He could get by with local HS players at those positions. So he didn’t have to recruit FSU caliber players on offense. WanDale wouldn’t have been on Osborne’s radar.

If Frost wanted to run a version of Osborne’s offense then that blueprint can be followed. He will probably be able to replicate the success on the OL. But with all due respect to OL, there are only 54 OL rated 4 star or above. You aren’t building top 10 classes with OL. It is defensive players and skill position guys. To beat elite teams and win championships, running an offense that is dependent on skill position players, you have to have equal skill. As I wrote earlier in this thread, the CFP is the great equalizer. You have to beat 3 teams in a row that are basically top 5 teams. You simply can’t depend on out-scheming or out-hearting 3 top 5 teams in a row.
 
Why do people always assume NU wasn't getting talented guys from across the nation. Florida, New Jersey, Minnesota, California, Arizona, Texas?

Yeah there were NE kids but those classes that built the 90s success were top classes, they didn't max out a bunch of nobodies. Tons of guys went to the NFL and had good careers.

I would give you WR that NU never had blue Chip talent, but Frazier was the top option QB. Berringer was going to be drafted. Ahman Green was a frequent pro bowler. LP went first round.

Wistrom, Rucker, and KVB all had long NFL careers as starters. Mike Brown was an elite safety for the Bears.

Stop it with the idea that those rings came from farm kids that nobody else would have wanted. There were a lot of elite players on those teams.
 
The biggest difference that I see is the offense. As much as you want to say Nebraska was the spread 30 years before the spread, Osborne’s offense was predicated on bulldozing OL, a blocking FB and WRs and TEs who could block and catch an occasional pass. He could get by with local HS players at those positions. So he didn’t have to recruit FSU caliber players on offense. WanDale wouldn’t have been on Osborne’s radar.

If Frost wanted to run a version of Osborne’s offense then that blueprint can be followed. He will probably be able to replicate the success on the OL. But with all due respect to OL, there are only 54 OL rated 4 star or above. You aren’t building top 10 classes with OL. It is defensive players and skill position guys. To beat elite teams and win championships, running an offense that is dependent on skill position players, you have to have equal skill. As I wrote earlier in this thread, the CFP is the great equalizer. You have to beat 3 teams in a row that are basically top 5 teams. You simply can’t depend on out-scheming or out-hearting 3 top 5 teams in a row.
And damn near every HS in Nebraska was running the option or at least was run heavy so kids had experience in the concepts.
 
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Why do people always assume NU wasn't getting talented guys from across the nation. Florida, New Jersey, Minnesota, California, Arizona, Texas?

Yeah there were NE kids but those classes that built the 90s success were top classes, they didn't max out a bunch of nobodies. Tons of guys went to the NFL and had good careers.

I would give you WR that NU never had blue Chip talent, but Frazier was the top option QB. Berringer was going to be drafted. Ahman Green was a frequent pro bowler. LP went first round.

Wistrom, Rucker, and KVB all had long NFL careers as starters. Mike Brown was an elite safety for the Bears.

Stop it with the idea that those rings came from farm kids that nobody else would have wanted. There were a lot of elite players on those teams.

Pretty sure Tommie Frazier was a consensus top 5 player in the nation too when he signed with NU. Athlon had him at #2 in the country behind Powlus I think. Doesn't get much more blue Chip than that.
 
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So our formula is basically the same as Iowa - iowa state - Illinois - kansas - oregon state etc etc
In order to compete for a national title, NU will have to have a better recruiting profile. But NU's recruiting formula is already better than the schools you've listed and is sufficient to compete for a B1G championship, certainly good enough to win the West.
The path back to relevance occurs before NU is in any discussion for a national title. And NU is at a geographical disadvantage when it comes to recruiting, but the program has always had a national footprint.
A 9-10 win season and being competitive in all games would do a whole bunch for recruiting.
 
Pretty sure Tommie Frazier was a consensus top 5 player in the nation too when he signed with NU. Athlon had him at #2 in the country behind Powlus I think. Doesn't get much more blue Chip than that.

TF was an AA who we beat out ND and Clemson for. At one point he was even committed to Colorado.

Everybody wanted him.
 
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I've read this article before and thought the author's breakdown of where the 1995 NU starters would have fallen on the Rivals star rankings. The best college FB team of all time started two walk-ons on offense, one on defense and several guys were converted to different positions from what they played in HS.
TO was the king of making do with what he had. That team had blue-chip players at the key positions. The Oline at the time was essentially a factory that produced All-Americans. The defense had it's share of blue-chip players, but the most important thing was their blue-collar mentality.
NU at the time benefited from consistency of approach that went along with a coaching staff that had a long tenure together.
http://sportstreatise.com/2018/01/1995-nebraska-and-the-myth-of-championship-recruiting/
 
Oh, I care, but my point is, if youve had a great year, are healthy and heading into the championship game, if the depth is never needed, it doesnt matter.
Thing is, at that point, a team should be catching up at this point, maybe not surpassing a bama, but close enough to maintain those 28 ballers.
Tom Brady gets credit for the 1997 title, but only the top 28 players matter.
 
I'm amazed that I can write a post where I specifically call out us getting equal to or better talent than the big dogs at specific positions (QB or RB), and the next half dozen posts are people saying why do people assume I'm making the argument we never got anyone and went to war with a QB from Grand Island.

Read all the words people.
 
The biggest difference that I see is the offense. As much as you want to say Nebraska was the spread 30 years before the spread, Osborne’s offense was predicated on bulldozing OL, a blocking FB and WRs and TEs who could block and catch an occasional pass. He could get by with local HS players at those positions. So he didn’t have to recruit FSU caliber players on offense. WanDale wouldn’t have been on Osborne’s radar.

If Frost wanted to run a version of Osborne’s offense then that blueprint can be followed. He will probably be able to replicate the success on the OL. But with all due respect to OL, there are only 54 OL rated 4 star or above. You aren’t building top 10 classes with OL. It is defensive players and skill position guys. To beat elite teams and win championships, running an offense that is dependent on skill position players, you have to have equal skill. As I wrote earlier in this thread, the CFP is the great equalizer. You have to beat 3 teams in a row that are basically top 5 teams. You simply can’t depend on out-scheming or out-hearting 3 top 5 teams in a row.

I think the biggest thing I see going forward is the quote "modern landscape of CFB"...ie the playoff issue you point out.

TO built a lot of teams that were good against lesser competition but didn't quite make it over the hump against better teams. We lost what, 7 or so bowl games in a row and had trouble against alot of teams with equal or greater talent. He eventually fixed that.

I actually think Frost will have the ability to get top flight spread talent in here, he's about as big as a name as it gets in current CFB offensive coaching circles, and until he crashes spectacularly, he should be able to get enough Adrian's and WanDales to keep us going. I think our defense is going to lag the O, and it remains to be seen whether our unique brand of offense will keep us in games against the Bama's of the world or not with the players that NU gets.

But yah, I think Frost has a taller order than TO because of the playoff issue. TO could more or less build his season around one game and had a month to prepare for it. Even if Frost manages to build a pretty darn good team, he's going to have to beat three damn good teams in a row in fairly short order, and that onslaught makes the random injury bug issues that TO dealt with a much bigger issue in current day.
 
Frost has more or less admitted we're a development program. He'll get some good players sure, but he and his staff are not going to do "shady things" and "cheat" to get into that Top 10 consistently. Maybe the winning will take care of that eventually, but to prime the pump, he's poised to try and win something of note without the BCR.


This is exactly the case. While I agree recruiting top talent is the easiest road to the national championship, it’s not the only way. Just like most things in this world, there are alternative ways to achieving ultimate success, the alternative is just more difficult.


It’s possible to build a championship contender on a mix of highly rated recruits and guys who had to be developed. It’s just a more difficult path. In order to do it that way, the coaching must be flawless, the S&C must be flawless, and the players have to be a certain kind of guys who completely buy in and as a unit of one. It’s takes developing guys like Garrett Nelson into all Americans but making sure the guys like Wan’Dale also pan out to their projection


Granted some old curmudgeons on this website will say that recruiting top 5 talent every year is the only way to go. And to the naked eye, this may seem to be the case but the same state of mind would have told us the world was flat & man could not land on the moon. Fortunately, this is not the case.


It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a system in college football actually challenge for a natty without it being built on recruiting top ten classes and it’s only happen a handful of times in college football. But it can be done. Part of the reason I don’t believe you see it anymore in college football is because staff retention in college football just isn’t what it use to be. Fans patience just isn’t what it use to be. Can frost win a title here? Yes but for those that believe he’s going to have to field multiple top 5 recruiting classes to do it, I just disagree. I think the path at Nebraska is a mix of talent and outworking everyone else, that be in the weight room, in the film room, & on the field.
 
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The biggest difference that I see is the offense. As much as you want to say Nebraska was the spread 30 years before the spread, Osborne’s offense was predicated on bulldozing OL, a blocking FB and WRs and TEs who could block and catch an occasional pass. He could get by with local HS players at those positions. So he didn’t have to recruit FSU caliber players on offense. WanDale wouldn’t have been on Osborne’s radar.

If Frost wanted to run a version of Osborne’s offense then that blueprint can be followed. He will probably be able to replicate the success on the OL. But with all due respect to OL, there are only 54 OL rated 4 star or above. You aren’t building top 10 classes with OL. It is defensive players and skill position guys. To beat elite teams and win championships, running an offense that is dependent on skill position players, you have to have equal skill. As I wrote earlier in this thread, the CFP is the great equalizer. You have to beat 3 teams in a row that are basically top 5 teams. You simply can’t depend on out-scheming or out-hearting 3 top 5 teams in a row.

It was the spread in regards to he built it specifically because on the issue of negating the need for like talent at all positions. More or less why the modern spread was born.
 
The variable that changed college football is the college football playoff. Up until 2014 you had to be good enough to win your division win your conference title game and win one bowl game against a top 4 team. Teams that depend on development of underrated players or a scheme that just keeps the ball away from the opponent, can get you the conference title and maybe a shot at the national championship. Now that you have to do all of those things plus win the first game against a top 4 team, then beat another top 4 team a week later, the chances of a team that depends on development doing all of that is slim. Did y’all go yy more difficult than it was back in the day.

No one said it’s an easy task and as you said the chances are slim. But the great thing about humans is we find a way to beat the odds. It can be done and will be done. Maybe it won’t be Frost or Nebraska who does it, but it will happen. I want to believe it will be Nebraska who does it. We have a great blueprint for it.
 
I love NU as much as anyone on this board...but at some point reality has to smack the rose colored glasses off your face.

People have been saying for years, if the Administration would stop being cheap and get behind the football program, throw a few million bucks a year at a top name coach, top flight talent will just roll in the door and NU will resume Camelot as usual.

The administration did all that a year ago, and top flight Top 5 talent is not rolling in in waves ready to do battle for the N. We get some good ones, we get some projects, and we're set to have a pretty good football team, but Camelot is not going to ensue because ESPN said "Frost to NU" a year ago and we're now throwing around millions of bucks that we traditionally haven't wanted to. The winning is going to have to come before the recruits in our case.
 
This is exactly the case. While I agree recruiting top talent is the easiest road to the national championship, it’s not the only way. Just like most things in this world, there are alternative ways to achieving ultimate success, the alternative is just more difficult.


It’s possible to build a championship contender on a mix of highly rated recruits and guys who had to be developed. It’s just a more difficult path. In order to do it that way, the coaching must be flawless, the S&C must be flawless, and the players have to be a certain kind of guys who completely buy in and as a unit of one. It’s takes developing guys like Garrett Nelson into all Americans but making sure the guys like Wan’Dale also pan out to their projection


Granted some old curmudgeons on this website will say that recruiting top 5 talent every year is the only way to go. And to the naked eye, this may seem to be the case but the same state of mind would have told us the world was flat & man could not land on the moon. Fortunately, this is not the case.


It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a system in college football actually challenge for a natty without it being built on recruiting top ten classes and it’s only happen a handful of times in college football. But it can be done. Part of the reason I don’t believe you see it anymore in college football is because staff retention in college football just isn’t what it use to be. Fans patients just isn’t what it use to be. Can frost win a title here? Yes but for those that believe he’s going to have to field multiple top 5 recruiting classes to do it, I just disagree. I think the path at Nebraska is a mix of talent and outworking everyone else, that be in the weight room, in the film room, & on the field.

Most of the banter for I don't know, 15 or so years I been on this board has revolved around spend enough money, get the right name guy, and the dynasties will return. Then there's usually a bunch of virtue signalling afterwards that no one is pining for a return to the 90's (but everyone basically is).

Damon Benning has sort of been one prominent counter to that school of thought. Where he thinks the "right coach" whoever it is, needs to get NU back to the NU of the 80's, where you are solid and "in position" but you probably have some tweaking to do in the program before you "get it right". If only because its much more attainable in measurables, and its awful hard to expect anyone in the modern era to come in and do in 2 or 3 years what took TO 25 years to make.
 
Since you asked....How about the old iron sharpens iron. Top players practicing against top players, makes your team better.

While we are on the subject, weren't you one of those arguing about needing 150 players on the roster because you never know which one of the 65 walk ons will be discovered. If you only need 28.......who cares if you have 122 more?
Iron doesnt sharpen iron. Just sayin.

But no i agree with you.
 
Why do people always assume NU wasn't getting talented guys from across the nation. Florida, New Jersey, Minnesota, California, Arizona, Texas?

Yeah there were NE kids but those classes that built the 90s success were top classes, they didn't max out a bunch of nobodies. Tons of guys went to the NFL and had good careers.

I would give you WR that NU never had blue Chip talent, but Frazier was the top option QB. Berringer was going to be drafted. Ahman Green was a frequent pro bowler. LP went first round.

Wistrom, Rucker, and KVB all had long NFL careers as starters. Mike Brown was an elite safety for the Bears.

Stop it with the idea that those rings came from farm kids that nobody else would have wanted. There were a lot of elite players on those teams.
A lot of those players were elite players because we developed them that way. It's the same with Alabama and Clemson now. Clemson hasn't out-recruited a lot of other teams but they have one of the best development programs and the best d coordinator in the nation. A lot of those players would be very good players regardless, but they only turned into elite players because of the development they got from the coaching staff.
 
I think the biggest thing I see going forward is the quote "modern landscape of CFB"...ie the playoff issue you point out.

TO built a lot of teams that were good against lesser competition but didn't quite make it over the hump against better teams. We lost what, 7 or so bowl games in a row and had trouble against alot of teams with equal or greater talent. He eventually fixed that.

I actually think Frost will have the ability to get top flight spread talent in here, he's about as big as a name as it gets in current CFB offensive coaching circles, and until he crashes spectacularly, he should be able to get enough Adrian's and WanDales to keep us going. I think our defense is going to lag the O, and it remains to be seen whether our unique brand of offense will keep us in games against the Bama's of the world or not with the players that NU gets.

But yah, I think Frost has a taller order than TO because of the playoff issue. TO could more or less build his season around one game and had a month to prepare for it. Even if Frost manages to build a pretty darn good team, he's going to have to beat three damn good teams in a row in fairly short order, and that onslaught makes the random injury bug issues that TO dealt with a much bigger issue in current day.
We lost 7 bowl games in a row because we played the 7 best teams in college football, or close to it. 95% of other teams would not only lose all of those games, but get destroyed in the process. I think out of those 7 games, 3 ended up being the national champion and another 4 finished #2. It's just insane the level of competition we faced in those bowl games.
 
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This is exactly the case. While I agree recruiting top talent is the easiest road to the national championship, it’s not the only way. Just like most things in this world, there are alternative ways to achieving ultimate success, the alternative is just more difficult.


It’s possible to build a championship contender on a mix of highly rated recruits and guys who had to be developed. It’s just a more difficult path. In order to do it that way, the coaching must be flawless, the S&C must be flawless, and the players have to be a certain kind of guys who completely buy in and as a unit of one. It’s takes developing guys like Garrett Nelson into all Americans but making sure the guys like Wan’Dale also pan out to their projection


Granted some old curmudgeons on this website will say that recruiting top 5 talent every year is the only way to go. And to the naked eye, this may seem to be the case but the same state of mind would have told us the world was flat & man could not land on the moon. Fortunately, this is not the case.


It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a system in college football actually challenge for a natty without it being built on recruiting top ten classes and it’s only happen a handful of times in college football. But it can be done. Part of the reason I don’t believe you see it anymore in college football is because staff retention in college football just isn’t what it use to be. Fans patients just isn’t what it use to be. Can frost win a title here? Yes but for those that believe he’s going to have to field multiple top 5 recruiting classes to do it, I just disagree. I think the path at Nebraska is a mix of talent and outworking everyone else, that be in the weight room, in the film room, & on the field.
I agree and we already out-recruit teams like Iowa and Wisconsin and have for a long time. Wisconsin and Iowa never really have great qb play. With Frost, we may get that more often than not. Our offensive system is also going to be a lot more potent than their's under Frost.

The thing we're missing right now is the defense. You can't tell me we can't build a defense just as good as theirs is because we don't have the talent. We out-recruit them every single year, we should be able to find enough defensive talent. If we had a defense that was as good as Iowa or Wisconsin has been in recent years, and with Frost's offense we would be a playoff team.

Another thing is development, and I think with that it's not only possible to match Iowa and Wisconsin in player development, we should be able to outperform them in developing our players. Wisconsin and Iowa aren't the pinnacle of player development. It's Clemson and Alabama, they can take good or very good talent and turn it into elite players. That's actually much harder than turning average talent into a good player.

We have our own road to be successful. With Frost's system on offense and if we could find a defense, I don't think we need to recruit top 15 every year to make it to the playoffs. We're already recruiting elite talent at the skill positions without top 15 classes. That's half the battle as we've seen teams without great skill position players are rarely able to keep up with the playoff teams. We've seen teams without good recruiting build great pipelines and defenses through great development.

Mash those two philosophies together of recruiting elite skill position talent and having great development at the other positions, I think that's going to be our recipe for success. It's going to take a lot, but if everything goes right, not only could we make the playoffs, we could have a great shot at winning it.
 
A lot of those players were elite players because we developed them that way. It's the same with Alabama and Clemson now. Clemson hasn't out-recruited a lot of other teams but they have one of the best development programs and the best d coordinator in the nation. A lot of those players would be very good players regardless, but they only turned into elite players because of the development they got from the coaching staff.

Clemson HAS out-recruited most teams. Might want to check their classes the last few years.
 
Clemson HAS out-recruited most teams. Might want to check their classes the last few years.
There are about 10 other teams that have recruited as well or better than Clemson and 5 or 6 teams that are just behind them. Why hasn't any team besides Alabama been able to match Clemson's success?
 
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