100 Beyer for Mystic Dan
This appears to be an average group of 3 year olds even with Fierceness' 2 huge Beyer numbers. That's not to say some horses couldn't develop later in the year.
Looking at the Derby splits, the last 4F was run in 52 seconds, the last quarter a little under 26 seconds.
Brian Hernandez said he watched Calvin Borel win many races with rail-riding trips and knew a similar ride could prove the difference, The fact that Dornoch didn't break well from post 1 gave Hernandez the opportunity to take the rail position behind Track Phantom.
It'll be interesting to see how many Derby horses go to the Preakness. I would think Sierra Leone will skip the Preakness and wait for the Belmont at Saratoga. I assume Muth will be the morning line favorite at Pimlico
The field has now been set for this Saturday's Preakness Stakes:
**THIS IS NOW EDITED ON THURSDAY MORNING, MAY 16TH TO INCLUDE THE PERFORMANCE NUMBERS OF THE ENTIRE FIELD. I HAVEN'T UPDATED THE MORNING LINE ODDS.**
T=TOP, P=PAIR, O=OFF, X=X
In Parenthesis, the percentages of each horse to run a new TOP, PAIR, Run OFF, or Run an X:
1. Mugatu, Joe Bravo 20/1..... 11-13-14//11-16-11-11-7.....PPT (45-26-18-11)
2. Uncle Heavy, Irad Ortiz 20/1..... 5-13-5//4-8.....PPO (25-42-20-13)
3. Catching Freedom, Prat 6/1 .....9-9//7-5-4-3.....TPT (44-26-20-9)
4. Muth, J. Hernandex 8/5 SCRATCHED
5. Mystik Dan, BJ Hernandez 5/2..... 9-6-14//9-0-3-3.....TOO (10-33-32-25)
6. Seize The Grey, J. Torres 15/1..... 8-13-8-14//6-7-6-4.....PPT (45-26-18-11)
7. Just Steel, J. Rosario 15/1..... 15-9-2//8-2-7-1-18.....XTX (7-28-24-41)
8. Tuscan Gold, Gafflione 8/1..... 10//5-4.....TTP (18-36-30-17)
9. Imagination, Dettori 6/1..... 8-8//8-5-5-5.....TPP (24-45-20-11)
(These percentages in the parenthesis are derived from between 150 and 550 starts by 3 year olds around the country in the last 2 years that had that exact Pattern, for example, Mugata...525 horses that were 3 years old ran a new TOP 45% of the time, 26% of the time they PAIRED these best number, 18% of the time they ran OFF, and 11% of the time they X'd.)
The two horses most likely to run a new TOP are Seize the Grey and Catching Freedom. Having said that, they arrived at the New Top in different fashions. Seize The Grey won a flat 1 MILE race to reach a new TOP of 4, whereas, Catching Freedom reached a new TOP of 3 going the Preakness distance of 1 1/4 mile. So, of the two, the one most likely to run a new top is Catching Freedom.
As Pelini said, and I think most horse players would agree, this is a poor race to wager on. By pure PF numbers alone, there appear to be 6 horses that could win this race. Of those 6, there are only 3 horses worth betting on.
When Muth scratched, it changed the pace scenario, making the outcome more wide open.
Among the unknowns is how Catching Freedom, Mystik Dan and Just Steel perform coming off of just 14 days rest. The past 10 Derby Winners, as I illustrated near the bottom of this post, indicated new TOPS are rare this race for Derby Winners, less than 50% will run a new TOP or PAIR, and over 50% will run OFF or X.
The likely scenario will be Imagination and Seize The Grey on the front end, followed by Just Steel and Tuscan Gold, the next flight will be Mystik Dan and Uncle Henry followed by Mugata and the closer would be Catching Freedom. The real running, as always, will be in the last 1/4-1/2 mile of the race.
The faster the pace the more it helps Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom, the slower the pace the more it helps Imagination. "On paper" the two fastest horses in this race are Mystik Dan and Just Steel.
The horse most likely to run a new TOP is Catching Freedom. Unless something strange happens, i.e. a horse loves or hates the surfact, Mugata, Uncle Heavy are not quite good enough to win, Tuscan Gold and Imagination will need things to go right to win.
In the event the 3 Derby horses are leg weary from running back so soon, the race becomes wide open. This concludes the overview on this 8 horse field.** End of the edited portion from Thursday morning.
All the below information I posted earlier in this thread:
Hopefully, by tomorrow or Wednesday I will post their current patterns for those who are interested. For those unfamiliar with the Preakness, it is a 1 3/16th mile race, so 1/16th of a mile, or 110 yards shorter in distance than the Kentucky Derby. There is a 60% chance of rain in the forecast for Baltimore Saturday.
In the last 10 years, 8 of the 10 horses who WON the Kentucky Derby ran back in the Preakness two weeks later. The two which didn't run were Rich Strike and Maximum Security.
Below are Kentucky Derby Performance Figures each winner ran, and his Performance figure in the Preakness:
2023 Mage ran 0 in the Derby, and 3 in the Preakness. So, he went backwards 3 points; (OFF)
2022 Rich Strike ran 1 in the Derby and did not run in the Preakness;
2021 Medina Spirit ran 1 in Derby and 3 in Preakness. Went backwards 3 pts. (Was DQ'd in Derby); (OFF)
2020 Does not count since the Kentucky Derby was run in September due to the plandemic;
2019 Maximum Security ran 1 in the Deby and did not run in the Preakness;
2018 Justify ran -1 in the Derby and -0 in the Preakness. Went backward 1 point; (PAIR)
2017 Always Dreaming ran -1 in Derby and ran 8 in the Preakness. Went backward 9 points; (X)
2016 Nyquist ran 0 in Derby and 0 in Preakness. Ran the same Performance Figure in each race; (PAIR)
2015 American Pharoah ran -3 in the Derby and -0 in the Preakness. Went backwards 3 points; (OFF)
2014 California Chrome ran 0 in the Derby and -2 in the Preakness. Improved 2 points; (TOP)
2013 Orb ran -2 in the Derby and 4 in the Preakness. Went backwards 6 points. (X)
So, 8 Kentucky Derby winners ran in the Preakness with 1 horse (California Chrome) running a new TOP;
2 horses (Justify and Nyquist) PAIRED
3 horses (Mage, Medina Spirit, American Pharoah) ran OFF
2 horses (Always Dreaming and Orb) X'd.
