Etheridge: Ten takeaways from the Diamond Sports Ranking (DSR) reveal • D1Baseball
The inaugural Diamond Sports Ranking from D1 and 643 Charts is out. So, what are 10 takeaways from the first rankings release? Find out.
On Tuesday, 6-4-3 Charts released the first edition of the new "Diamond Sports Rankings (DSR)," an alternative to the much-maligned Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) used by the NCAA Selection Committee to select and seed the postseason bracket.
Below, we analyze the first version, which includes games through March 18.
- This system contains a probability-based component. How teams perform compared to their expectations can impact how the DSR is valued. Teams that lose as heavy favorites will be punished. Teams that upset teams as heavy underdogs are heavily rewarded. Similarly, teams that are consistent and beat all the teams they should and lose only to better squads will also be rewarded.
- There is a starting component based on how teams performed the season prior. This factor rewards teams that have improved from year to year. This is exemplified by Florida State, a team that went 23-31 last season and is off to an 18-0 start in 2024. Based on last season, the Seminoles had lower win probabilities than many other ranked teams. That allowed their early games – see the DSR lists opening weekend opponent Butler as FSU’s best win – to provide a significant point gain. Florida State won at Florida last Tuesday. That is its best win by any standard measure, but the DSR is basing the Butler win on last season’s expectations.
- Florida State is number one in DSR based on its outperforming probability expectations and game dominance. The DSR has a margin of victory component that is certainly reflected in the Seminoles’ DSR. While the schedule hasn’t been challenging, the scoring margins have been high. Teams will only get this bump after a bad season, but I kind of like the effect of inflating teams that improve after a dismal year.
- There are always teams with inflated RPIs based on playing strong opponents in road games. James Madison is a great example, currently sitting ninth in the RPI. I don’t think many feel James Madison is a top-ten team. The DSR has them at number 67, which seems more reflective of JMU’s place in the sport. They are solid but not spectacular.
- The RPI road component, which awards 1.3 wins in the RPI road victory and 0.7 for a road loss, is accounted for but not as heavily in the DSR. While the RPI has teams like Notre Dame, 11-8 overall and 0-6 in ACC play, at number 11 due to the heavy road record, the DSR has the Irish at number 29. The DSR will still reward road games, but not to the extreme level the RPI does.
- I’m interested in how SEC teams are evaluated in the new rating system. Just playing an SEC schedule in the RPI often puts teams in the top 50, but some could argue that even the bottom SEC teams would excel in other conferences. Twelve SEC teams are currently within the RPI top 50, with Mississippi State at #60 (home-heavy schedule) and Missouri at #134. In the DSR, 13 SEC teams are in the DSR top 50, with Mississippi State at #25, Georgia at #36, and Missouri at #170. At this point, I’d definitely lean toward DSR as more reflective of reality when evaluating the SEC schools, but as they begin to hand each other losses, it will be interesting to see how the DSR reflects the bottom half of the conference.
- One of the DSR’s selling points is that it ranks the teams based on their probability of winning a game. If team #15 faces team #44, there is a strong probability that #15 will win. In the RPI, team #15 is Indiana State, which lost to team #44 Southern Miss. In the DSR, Southern Miss is #16, and Indiana State is #54. The teams are practically reversed, primarily based on the home/road splits.
- There is obviously a lot of time until selection day as both rating systems collect more data points, making both more accurate. The critical point is that few feel the RPI is an accurate way to evaluate teams. There needs to be an alternative, and the folks at 6-4-3 Charts have established one with the DSR. We’ll watch and evaluate over the next two months leading up to selection day and point out positives and negatives compared to the RPI. At this early juncture, there’s little debate about which one is closer to reflecting reality and it’s not the RPI. How the rankings evolve as the results come in will be another fascinating storyline in a season already producing its share.
Diamond Sports Rankings (3/18)
1. Florida State
2. Clemson
3. Arkansas
4. Oregon State
5. Alabama
6. Vanderbilt
7. Kentucky
8. Coastal Carolina
9. Nebraska
10. North Carolina
11. Wake Forest
12. Virginia
13. TCU
14. Dallas Baptist
15. Tennessee
16. Southern Mississippi
17. South Carolina
18. Florida
19. UC-Irvine
20. Central Florida
21. Auburn
22. Texas A&M
23. Oklahoma
24. East Carolina
25. Mississippi State
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51. Maryland
55. Rutgers
77. Ohio State
84. Indiana
100. Iowa
103. Purdue
143. Illinois
151. Northwestern
158. Michigan
164. Michigan State
168. Penn State
220. Minnesota
