More On Sacrifice Bunting

[coolonetoo]

I've noticed Nebraska bunts less in midweek games and more on the weekends. This seems natural given that weekend pitching is better. It's more important to try to scratch across a few runs when there's a good arm on the hill, right? I believe it's flawed logic because--in my humble opinion--the best path to beating an ace is to get him out of the game earlier than planned and make hay against the bullpen. There are two methods for doing so, listed here in order of preference:

1. Have a big inning that forces a change on the mound. Naturally, the earlier in the game the better so it extends the relievers as far as possible.
2. Drive up the starter's pitch count so he's taken out--either by pitch count limit or diminishing effectiveness--as soon as possible.

Sacrifice bunting works against both these methods. It obviously prevents big innings because it gives up an out. And a sacrifice bunt, if executed properly, is typically a one or two pitch at bat. That's in the pitcher's favor in terms of pitch count.

 

[k9_r]

I just seem to think baseball managers will always play the high percentage game. Even if the margin is small.

I do agree with you, though. In college baseball, I say swing away.

 

[coolonetoo]

I just seem to think baseball managers will always play the high percentage game. Even if the margin is small.

True. Except that sacrificing is going against the odds. Statistically speaking, more runs will be scored with a runner on first and nobody out than with a runner on second and one out. Or with runners on first and second and no outs (the situation where a Nebraska bunt is almost automatic) versus second and third with one out.

http://boydsworld.com/data/ert.html

 

[k9_r]

True. Except that sacrificing is going against the odds. Statistically speaking, more runs will be scored with a runner on first and nobody out than with a runner on second and one out. Or with runners on first and second and no outs (the situation where a Nebraska bunt is almost automatic) versus second and third with one out.

http://boydsworld.com/data/ert.html

You need to calculate in the possibility of legging out the bunt. It happens and is part of the deal.

 

[icu81222]

The lower the level of play, the more I dislike giving up free outs. (Small college, high school etc). My philosophy has always been to be more aggressive. So, until late in games, I don't sacrifice, I base hit bunt. At least to 1 strike. If I have a weaker hitter, I might go ahead and sacrifice after attempting a base hit bunt but still don't like to early.

The higher level you go, the more likely the defense can make plays and the window for stringing together hits closes so I would tend to hit and run or steal as opposed to sac bunt. Obviiously the type of athlete you have will dictate the running game somewhat though.