D1Baseball.com NCAA Tourney Projection (4/22)

[Alum-Ni]

Link: http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/field-of-64-projections-week-11/

Top Eight National Seeds
1. UCLA
2. Louisville
3. Texas A&M
4. Florida
5. LSU
6. Texas Christian
7. Florida State
8. Arizona State

Los Angeles Regional
#1 UCLA vs. #4 Seattle
#2 Ohio State vs. #3 UC-Irvine

Iowa City Regional
#1 UC-Santa Barbara vs. #4 Creighton
#2 Iowa vs. #3 Bradley

============================

Louisville Regional
#1 Louisville vs. #4 Holy Cross
#2 Connecticut vs. #3 Oregon State

Springfield Regional
#1 Missouri State vs. #4 St. Louis
#2 Missouri vs. #3 Nebraska

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College Station Regional
#1 Texas A&M vs. #4 Canisius
#2 Oklahoma vs. #3 Louisiana-Lafayette

Dallas Regional
#1 Dallas Baptist vs. #4 Bryant
#2 Oklahoma State vs. #3 Houston

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Gainesville Regional
#1 Florida vs. #4 Norfolk State
#2 Radford vs. #3 Georgia Tech

Boca Raton Regional
#1 Florida Atlantic vs. #4 Florida Gulf Coast
#2 North Carolina vs. #3 Texas Tech

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Baton Rouge Regional
#1 LSU vs. #4 Stony Brook
#2 Notre Dame vs. #3 Southeastern Louisiana

Los Angeles Regional
#1 USC vs. #4 San Francisco
#2 Maryland vs. #3 Cal State-Fullerton

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Fort Worth Regional
#1 Texas Christian vs. #4 Columbia
#2 Arkansas vs. #3 Oral Roberts

Nashville Regional
#1 Vanderbilt vs. #4 Southeast Missouri State
#2 North Carolina-Wilmington vs. #3 Virginia

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Tallahassee Regional
#1 Florida State vs. #4 Alabama State
#2 South Florida vs. #3 Auburn

Champaign Regional
#1 Illinois vs. #4 Wright State
#2 Mississippi vs. #3 Rice

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Tempe Regional
#1 Arizona State vs. #4 Central Michigan
#2 College of Charleston vs. #3 Nevada

Coral Gables Regional
#1 Miami (FL) vs. #4 Mercer
#2 Coastal Carolina vs. #3 South Carolina

 

[johnm17]

Looks like a decent matchup

 

[Roscoe 12oz]

Agree that matchup would be much better than traveling to Baton Rouge, College Station, etc. They also have us listed as a "bubble in" in their stock report, citing a 2-8 record vs the top 50 RPI. Big road series coming up against Iowa & Illinois.

 

[k9_r]

Agree that matchup would be much better than traveling to Baton Rouge, College Station, etc. They also have us listed as a "bubble in" in their stock report, citing a 2-8 record vs the top 50 RPI. Big road series coming up against Iowa & Illinois.

D1Baseball Stock Report...
"Nebraska finds itself on the bubble despite its No. 21 RPI because it is just 2-8 against the top 50 and 6-6 in the Big Ten — putting it in seventh place."

First of all, our RPI is not 21, it's 18. Secondly, if we go 7-6 in the remaining 13 games...
Win 2 vs Iowa/Illinois
Win 5 vs NW/Creighton/Purdue
...our RPI will still be in the teens and our SOS 31 will improve. That's not a 'bubble' team. They're full of crap.

 

[RobsterMobster]

D1Baseball Stock Report...
"Nebraska finds itself on the bubble despite its No. 21 RPI because it is just 2-8 against the top 50 and 6-6 in the Big Ten — putting it in seventh place."

First of all, our RPI is not 21, it's 18. Secondly, if we go 7-6 in the remaining 13 games...
Win 2 vs Iowa/Illinois
Win 5 vs NW/Creighton/Purdue
...our RPI will still be in the teens and our SOS 31 will improve. That's not a 'bubble' team. They're full of crap.

Let's just say if we finish with an RPI in the top 25 we will get in, go find the last team with a top 25 RPI and an above .500 record that hasn't gotten in a regional. Our record against top 25 would possibly come into play if our RPI was in the 25-40 range by the end of the year, probably more so 30-40 range.

 

[huskerbaseball13]

Let's just say if we finish with an RPI in the top 25 we will get in, go find the last team with a top 25 RPI and an above .500 record that hasn't gotten in a regional. Our record against top 25 would possibly come into play if our RPI was in the 25-40 range by the end of the year, probably more so 30-40 range.

Here is our RPI Needs report per Boyd. Top 30 RPI seems very likely unless we have a collapse. Top 16 is in the realm of possibilities also if we can find a way to win this weekends series. I can see us as a bubble team right now based on our Big 10 record and record vs RPI top 50. But, other than that our numbers are very good. We are also 13-0 vs RPI teams 50-100.

Top 45:

0 home wins, 3 road wins
1 home wins, 2 road wins
2 home wins, 1 road wins
3 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 32:

0 home wins, 5 road wins
1 home wins, 4 road wins
2 home wins, 2 road wins
3 home wins, 1 road wins

Top 16:

0 home wins, 9 road wins
1 home wins, 7 road wins
2 home wins, 6 road wins
3 home wins, 5 road wins

Top 8:

2 home wins, 9 road wins
3 home wins, 8 road wins

 

[k9_r]

There are a whole lot of spots between Top 16 and Top 32. Spot 32 is a bubble team depending on the resume. Spot 17 is a two seed lock and possible host depending on resume.

I'm saying if we finish 7-6 we'll be a lock for a two seed and maybe even do better. We are not a bubble team now and barring a complete collapse we won't be at season end.

I have no idea how D1Baseball is coming up with that bubble crap.

I will say this, the Big Ten has people like D1Baseball completely flummoxed. They don't know how to deal with an historical 2 bid conference which all of a sudden has six teams within reach of an at large bid. They can't bring themselves to squeeze out one or two of their pet 7-10 bid conferences. Too bad for them. The committee won't have that problem.

What are those web sites going to do if MSU goes on a tear? MSU, RPI 37 - SOS 41 has 16 games left, all winnable. What happens if they win 12/13 of those? Someone will get bumped for MSU. OSU is sitting on a 13 RPI right now and that's a solid host bid. Those web sites are barely looking at OSU. Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska.... They acknowledge Illinois and they like Maryland but they ignore us - the committee won't.

Watch out, big boys, the Big Ten is coming through the door.

 

[RobsterMobster]

Its really a benefit to have the Big Ten as a whole with a great RPI, that's what's so different about this year compared to the last few.

 

[HuskerSoCal]

Somehow, Cal State Fullerton which is 20-19 and has an RPI of 39, and just got routed by Cal State Bakersfield 14-1, is a lock at a #3 seed in LA? D1baseball is living in the past... load of crap.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

I'm not sure that we really are a bubble team right now, but we don't want to give the selection committee any reason to keep us out, and right now our 7th place status in the conference isn't helping us. Slip-ups against Northwestern or Purdue or getting swept by Iowa or Illinois could put us squarely on the bubble.

 

[hawkjt]

Fun to have good baseball in the Big Ten....Nebraska has really helped the league...should be a fun series in IC this weekend...Hickman of Iowa is a possible 1st rounder on the mound Saturday..weather permitting..go hawks.

 

[RobsterMobster]

Fun to have good baseball in the Big Ten....Nebraska has really helped the league...should be a fun series in IC this weekend...Hickman of Iowa is a possible 1st rounder on the mound Saturday..weather permitting..go hawks.

It's crazy, if I told you a year ago the Big Ten would have six teams still competing for a spot in the Regionals, and none of them were Indiana, I'd of been laughed off the board.

 

[HuskerSoCal]

Do you all remember when Erstad said he felt there we 7 or 8 teams that could compete for the B1G title and most people scoffed? And here we sit...

 

[Roscoe 12oz]

Do you all remember when Erstad said he felt there we 7 or 8 teams that could compete for the B1G title and most people scoffed? And here we sit...

Still a month left in the season.